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Private investor Vijay Kadia. Vijay, no words but Ghana for the finance minister. What do we want to hear from us for us today? Yesterday also come st like this. You have to sing it. You have to sing. You have to open the vocal cords in the morning. to FMG. FMG. It may text STG LT FMG. It's truly impressive that for every occasion that I have had a chance with
able song he's able to do it on his feet. Uh both the investing as well as the singing and that's really a unique quality that we have in Vijadia. Absolutely. So, so Vijay, okay, let's take a step back. Set the context out for us. In your opinion, uh, how much headroom does the government have uh to give policy stimulus and where should that stimulus be in your opinion?
Budget 2026. You see, as you know, as everybody knows that I'm not that educated person. I'm not an economist also. I just uh make up my mind or I just learn from people like you coming on your television show and Balasar and all and I listen to them and I just create my own things. So I what I what I have uh read in all previous like 3 four days that economic survey whatever economic survey has actually uh presented this is what I think government should do and that economic survey I did somewhere it is it is not actually painting a very very rosy picture and what they say that there is a slowdown in the pace of momentum of this uh growth and all and unemployment is the biggest issue which government needs to scattered this I had been saying this for last three four years that biggest issue or biggest fear in my mind about growth of India is unemployment and of course so there are three four things which government needs needs to focus whether they have headroom or don't have headrooms they have to create more headrooms that is what education and enterprise and uh uh employment and all these things and execution that is also the biggest challenge I think government should work on this and I personally believe that this time like people usually don't have any hopes on the budget day that budget is okay it is like like accounting this and all this and that but I don't think so I think because so there are so many biggest reforms which had been introduced on the b only for example HTT for example LTCG and again increase in LTCG and all these things related to capital market were introduced in this and so many reforms also so I think this government is also bent upon reviving the economy reviving the pace so I think government should focus on all these things.
Absolutely. But Bala, for the mutual fund investor, what should they be doing? I remember December you said that it is going to be the trade and if someone does make that sectoral allocation, they're going to make a lot of money and you said that on a public platform. What now? Of course from budget and investment do not get
Yeah. Which is why I'm asking purely as an investor. As an investor, what should mutual fund investors be doing? they should continue to keep their faith that India is I think is on a growth path and investors in the stock market mutual funds will continue to make uh money over a period of time. So therefore they should keep their faith that they have built over a period of time and continue even going forward whatever the SAP investment that they make they should continue.
The second from a sectoral point of view I think we'll see a revival um in the in the in the market led by financial sectors of course is one of the largest sectors which al drive and given the fact a lot of focus now is being given on credit growth as well as on growth to come back uh in in multiple ways.
Therefore the banking and financial sectors will continue to be the driver from market point of view. Second is the manufacturing sector where a lot of impetus being given by the government including the this current budget. My own belief is will actually further improve the allocation towards manufactur sector through the PLI schemes.
Therefore that sector I think will get the renewed interest going forward. And third of course is the defense is one sectors as pur mentioned about the EU trade. I think could be a game changanger for India is expected to be a lot of good not just only on the automobile sectors even related sectors including defense you'll see many such improvement that could come as a related driver of the growth momentum from a sector point of these are some of the sectors could do well but having said that from a broader market point of view I would say it comes at reasonable valuation last two years Indian equity markets have not delivered as much returns as delivered about previous three years market has gone through consolidation phase.
Think we are on the cusp of the earning growth to come back the next year. Given the fact the cost of capital is one of the lowest in the world with interest rates coming down and equity market is able equity market is giving money where the cost of capital is low. Therefore we will probably see a good pick up in the overall economic growth this year and therefore from investors point of view I think they should continue to um uh keep investing and leave aside the current market volatility.
I think we should not get worried about the metals going up and down. We must also admit the fact that not many have invested in that. Therefore, retail investors should not get too much worried about fluctuation the in the commodities market and they have been investing in diversity equity portfolios like flexi cap fund, multi fund or maybe the multiap fund.
Stick to that discipline of investing. No, no concentrated bets. Maybe small and midcaps more this time as opposed to large caps. Nothing of that sort. just small cap small cap the IC given the fact that we are moving from $4 trillion to 10 trillion economy we can't ignore the market which is other than top 100 company I think you'll continue to see growth coming the smaller and mid-size companies you'll find many vendors who would actually have a greater aspiration uh in the small and mid-size companies compared to the large cap company therefore the segment cannot be ignored but only the timing of investment and not I mean the same time in the investment I think you need to be need to be careful it should be longer As long as it come for about five to 6 years kind of time, I don't think one should worry about it.
By the way, is going to give us a party if there is a change in debt taxation. Me and Bala are giving a joint party. But no, no, we won't let you go that easy. No, you won't let us go. You called us here on a Sunday, so me and Bala are giving a party. We'll ring the bell in 18 hour studio. Yeah. Yeah, we'll ring the bell in our studio.
In 18 hour first. But uh but but you had a question for I have a question for Vijay because he he made this point on entrepreneurship and jobs and I think uh you know one thing we haven't talked about as much is the MSME sector Vijay and you know uh that is really the heart of the economy and small businesses a lot has been done in the budget for small businesses but what more can FM what more can government do to sort of boost MSME as a core engine of the economy?
me. You are asking me what of course I get a unique chance to ask you a question Vijay which now has given you one perk of waking up on a Sunday morning is I get to ask Bala and Vijay questions which I never do a day in life a day in a life of no actually what I understand little bit about all these economy and all this MSM sector I agree with you there are 62 million MSMA in India And they are the growth engine of our economy.
No doubt about we can't ignore that. But still what we are talking every everything we are talking on headlines on the ground level things are not happening that fast as we expect it to happen. For example ease of doing business we are talking about all these things for last so many years but there is still so many bottlenecks and of course credit availability is also an issue until unless and of course corruption we don't need to talk about it.
It is it is everywhere. ities uh that we can't deny that also. So I think ultimat the these vital problems of credit availability and uh and uh all all these things I think uh again this MSME will keep on you know suffering and struggling to register meaningful growth and add a meaningful value to the Indian economy.
Uh Vijay uh how do you think uh investors should trade today? uh given that there is there is going to be volatility in the markets uh there is uh this entire budget thing will also be something which is there on every trader's uh you know uh uh view there so how do you think one should be trading uh there is it should be should it trade for the budget or should it trade for a long term
switch off the mobile phone and put on the TV that's the best thing you know you don't have to trade who who told you to trade today why should you trade today who told you you are not going to get any your name is not going to appear in Guinness book of world record that you traded today and did something there would be a lot of volatility I don't know market what time is market going to open I even don't know this it has already opened as per the 9:15 time or it is going to open later I don't know about it so don't worry about the market worry about yourself keep your mind calm learn something new every day and don't trade in the market invest for long term only 5 10 years and there would be many volatility uh utility in the market as I said so make up your mind take 2 days 3 days 4 days 5 days buy 10% cheaper buy 10% uh uh expensive it is not going to change uh your lifestyle
uh Bala let me come to you the gold silver trade uh it's been a it's been such a tricky and such a tumultuous ride if I can call it that uh how are you looking at gold and silver at this juncture see it's completely in a out of range time. I think it's in a complete different arbitrary and the speculative element is not just coming only from India.
It's come from the worldwide market when we saw a few beacon development in place like Indonesia, place like China and uh related to the commodities trading. I think this is going to be very interesting to watch out in terms of who get caught and where and for what reasons. I think such a commodity is not available.
It's in abundance. Therefore some element of speculative element and stocks not being available and so on so forth. See it's completely in a complete speculative mode and huge amount of participation has come and that's why what you have seen in the last few days the regulatory intervention is coming in now making people actually deliver the the the real hold real holding rather than speculating it and these are some of the steps increasing the margins I think will bring them actually to the level at which it should directly speaking in trade but also given the fact we must also understand given the US trade tariff is not just coming for India alone it's worldwide This created some kind of uncertainty.
Therefore, darlization is also somewhat is happening. Therefore, people actually holding dollar as against the uh US gold as against US dollar and these are some of the things which is currently the dynamics which is of course influencing the price movement but at the end of the any excessive price movement has to get corrected especially in the last say 1 month if price goes up 50%.
Uh naturally we have to expect something to come and hammer them. But believe me the risk I always seen we'll never know where it comes it'll come but this point of time it's very difficult to predict whether it will come I think if you have to if you have to scare people can scare but the risk has come therefore one has to be very careful while trading these kind of commodities at this point of time
okay be careful the moves in fact Radhika Sajjit and Bal and Vijay as well I'll just quickly try and pull out those moves because could this be an opportunity is really the question MCX is down 15% % multi commodity exchange this is the exchange which is down 15%. Anything relating to metals is actually taking a beating in trade today.
Hindustan copper is down 14 and a half. Hindustan zing made a low of 11 to 12% down. Mut finance is down 6%. So it's even the financiers which are taking a knock. Vanta was down 10% at one point has has pulled back a bit in terms of uh the move today. It's down five now. Uh uh so so you know across the board Vijay uh metals have rallied in a very strong fashion and now we're seeing pullbacks uh would you buy the dip?
Is this maybe a a 3 four 5 year theme and therefore continues to present an opportunity in your opinion? Uh because there is a certain section of the market which says that silver at $100 an ounce is is fairly reasonable to expect. So how would you play the trade? I tell you one thing on a lighter note, metals are meant to melt.
Okay? When you when you heat up the metals, what it happens? It it melts automatically. So this is what is happening now. Entire world is melting in this uh metal uh rally. So this metal rally, it is not for the light-hearted. It will make you mental. So please remember this thing. You just understand the history movement of silver.
Then you will get the idea. In 1985, 8080 between 82 and 85 during Hunt Brother's time silver was $50. It went up $50 from $6. Then after again from $50, it went uh back to I think six or seven or $8 or something. Then again in 2011 it went up to $50. Then again from $50 it went down to $11 or something.
Now first time historically if you think in 40 40 years, 45 years or whatever it is, silver cloth uh $50. So everybody now suddenly become who has hurt you know who have hurt themselves in uh you call stock market or whatever trade or you you call it trade I call it gambling so now they switch to silver and that is why price went up to 125 basically let me tell you this graphically or whatever this long-term chartically if you ask me I am bullish on silver I had some silver which luckily I sold so but uh uh that does not mean that any price now wherever I go I meet people everybody talking about silver now they are teaching me there is a usage of silver in data center in EV and solar and all and all these things people know for last 50 years silver has usage in photo this and all those things now now suddenly all these narratives are doing around just to trap the people silver is not for light-hearted it's a it's a real gamble kind of movement.
Basically, I am bullish on all these metals as you said, maybe silver or gold, but not of course not at this price. Every euphoria, you know, turns into a crisis. So, long-term I think metals should do well, including copper or zinc or even gold or silver, but not certainly not at this price. Once this euphoria settles down, then we'll think about it,
right? Vijay, the broader end of the market has has faced plenty of pressure over the last 15 months. We've seen a long consolidation period. Uh do you believe that 2026 will be that year for the midcap and small cap investors where they will make outsized returns versus large cap and if so what will be those sectors?
Will it be realy? Will it be media? Will it be some of those nisha sectors which will come to the four? So let me tell you between 2021 and 2024 you had been raising toast every quarter or every month or on some people were raising toast every every day also that every day you are gaining 10% or 15% so now you are being roast so that is the again as I said the euphoria turns into crisis that's a law of nature that's a law of stock market so don't read anything about whatever is happening in this market nothing in unusual this is very common thing happening in the market every time when whenever there is a euphoric bull market.
So I think now market is settling down. I don't expect I may be wrong and I don't mind if I if I go wrong because I'm I am holding shares. Okay. I have a position in the market in the investment. So but I personally feel maybe in 2026 I don't think that we are going to see a new top and I don't think that we are going to see a new bottom also as well.
The bottom which market made 6 months back or something. So I think this market is going to consolidate and so far midcap and small caps are concerned I think they have fallen a lot 30 40 50 60 70% they have fallen of course after a rise of three times four times 50 times know so that they are correcting themselves there is nothing unusual is happening in this market let me tell I don't think there is anything unusual is happening so I think now midcap and all these are correcting and they have corrected a lot also so personally if you ask me if I find an opportunity I am happy to invest in this market uh so I'm looking for opportunity where I can really invest for next 5 10 years I think this market is going to give you an opportunity today uh money these days maybe in next 3 4 months 5 months or it has already started
excellent thank you so much Vijay for joining us we'll let you go on that note Bala thank you so much for joining us in person in studio it's great having that conversation Radika thank you we'll let you also take a short break. Uh, of course you're with us the whole day. So, so that's the other uh big big positive.
But what we will uh do is slip into a very short break. On the other side, we will engage with our think tank panel. Stay with us. This is budget 2026. You want to stay on it now.
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