저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 재정적자와 막대한 국채 차환(약 10조 달러, 향후 6~9개월) 부담이 커지고 금리 재상승 우려가 있어, 대규모 재정 긴축이 불가피할 수 있다는 주장. 현재 60~90일의 민감한 기간이며 DOGE의 지출 발굴과 관세 등 단기 성과가 시간을 벌어준다고 봄. 시장은 고평가 상태로 작은 경제 충격에도 조정이 올 수 있고, 빅테크 성장 한계와 타 산업 부상, 채권시장 재조정이 진행 중이라고 설명. 기술 패권과 국방 기술 경쟁(드론, 안두릴 등)을 강조하며 우크라이나 지원 비판과 유럽 에너지 문제도 언급.
다듬은 글
oh God I think it's going to be really bad for the US economy in which case there will be no choice except to make very deep cuts to uh in a broad-based way so we almost need to buy some time and figure out how bad the situation is which is why we need the air cover to sort of see how much Doge uncovers because that'll make the problem less at the end of the day right because cutting that stuff will mean that's fewer fixed programs we have to cut so that's kind of where we are so I think it's in a very we're in a delicate 60 to 90day period I think the public will surely feel the effects of the growing pressure on the US government to reduce its spending but the road ahead won't be easy that's the most recent opinion of Social Capital CEO and seasoned venture capitalist shth Palapa a historical comparison reveals a startling similarity the United Kingdom experienced a serious budget crisis in 200 10 with a deficit of 10% of its total GDP the government responded to this by enacting stringent austerity measures and cutting spending in order to bring the budget back into balance the deficit gradually decreased over the ensuing years reaching 3% by 2016 but even though these Cuts decreased borrowing they also caused a great deal of annoyance which fueled the public unhappiness that ultimately led to brexit the United States is currently facing a similar problem as its deficit approaches 7% the objective reduce it to 3% as the UK did The crucial question still stands though will spending reductions have the same effects or lead to unforeseen repercussions watch this space as shath offers more enlightening observations about the state of the market remember to like And subscribe to this video if you like to keep up with financial and economic Trends it's free and you can always change your mind later let's get back into it now the last couple of years the Biden Administration and specifically Biden and Yellen did one thing that I hope no government afterwards ever does which is they were effectively speculating on rates and what they did was you know the the treasury's job is to finance the government right their job is to go into the bond market sell bonds use that money so and redirect it to HHS to um Social Security to defense wherever they financed it with all of this short-term paper and part of it was they believed that inflation would be in check and interest rates in the future would fall so whatever happened we would be able to go back into the markets and borrow later for cheaper it turned out that was an enormously incorrect assumption and they should not have made that decision so today what Trump and bessent have to do is extremely difficult they have about $10 trillion so call it you know 25 30% of our total debt we have to refinance in the next six to n months and we're doing it against a backdrop where now inflation is ticking back up and rates are ticking back up so why is that important it's important because now all of a sudden like what does this budget bill look like and what can we actually accomplish there's the Senate version which is super light and it says let's just deal with border security and Military and then there's what sort of trump has asked for which is the house version which is this quote unquote one big beautiful Bill the problem is those two things are on a collision course and the Big Bill may be a little bit too early in the sense that to exactly your point we don't know how bad the situation is and if bessent goes into the market and gets clubbed over the head and all of a we have 10 trillion dollar that we have to borrow at five or five and a half percent God I think it's going to be really bad for the US economy in which case there will be no choice except to make very deep cuts to uh in a broad-based way so we almost need to buy some time and figure out how bad the situation is which is why we need the air cover to sort of see how much Doge uncovers because that'll make the problem less at the end of the day right because cutting that stuff will mean that's fewer fixed programs we have to cut so that's kind of where we are so I think it's in a very we're in a delicate 60 to 90day period I think there is some short-term wins already so um you know he slapped a tariff I think on European car Imports or whatnot and they capitulated and they lowered their import tariff for American cars um to match their own so effectively it was he said it was 5x greater right so if you tried to take a Ford F-150 into Europe and now that import tariff is effectively the same as what we charge European cars on the way in so to your point there's already been some early winds and then when you look at like Canada and Mexico the threat of that 20 or 25% tariff essentially caus them to capitulate so on the one hand there's trade normalization on the other hand it's a negotiating Gambit for other things that are more important in the moment specifically border security and drugs and all of that stuff in the case of Mexico and Canada but the the reality is like that Revenue Source if you offset it somehow doesn't really do much to make the problem any better meaning if you get a bunch of money in with tariffs but then you also cut corporate taxes or you extend the tax cuts for individuals and make them permanent the reality is all you're doing is all you're doing is sort of like you know taking from Peter to pay Paul it doesn't make the structural issue any better and the structural issue is what Jason said which is we have a huge debt wall that we are about to hit and we have to find a permanent way out of it and I think that's where the president is right that there's going to be some short-term pain because I don't see how all of these things actually get to the core structural issue which is we're just spending too much Congress is appropriating too much money to things that we can't account for and the law says once Congress says go you can't say no the stock market appears to be continuously overvalued and it is possible that a correction is on the horizon however their valuations have now reached levels where even minor economic disruptions could trigger significant declines the Magnificent 7 tech Giants have experienced extraordinary growth but their valuations have now reached these levels investors are starting to realize that their upward trajectory is not going to be endless and as a consequence other Industries are beginning to gain traction meanwhile the bond market is going going through a significant rebalancing process as a result of the shifting economic policies that are being implemented shath Palapa draws attention to a number of important factors that are currently at play including increasing tariffs stricter immigration policies and increases in government spending all of which are reshaping Market expectations to further complicate matters the United States of America is on the verge of refin financing a staggering 10 trillion worth of debt bond yields could fall as a consequence of this which would be beneficial for Trump but it would also bring about an increase in economic uncertainty about the future investors need to Ure that they are able to navigate these shifts with caution because the financial landscape is rapidly changing now let's go back and look at some additional realizations from shath I think we all want to be and Remain the most important country in the world that should be um you know not really controversial but the problem is that we have somehow found a way to debate how to get there and I think how to get there has always been the same and will always be the same which is America is the best when it has the most vibrant economy in the world and the most capable and powerful military in the world that's it and whenever any country has had those two things if you look back in history thousands of years they've always been the most important and the most vibrant place whether it's Rome or whether it's the you know British Empire but underneath that is one thing in this modern iteration which is you must have technical Supremacy you must if you make the best clothes it doesn't mean much you could have a vibrant fashion industry but it's not going to give you economic vibrancy or military Supremacy if you have great you know uh buildings it doesn't do anything if you have you need techn technology Supremacy and this is why what Jason said is so critical so why is Elon in there I think part of what he's in there to do is to make sure that by helping to bat back some of these regulations it's not just him but there's so many others that hit this air pocket now that can actually do stuff on behalf of Team America and if you're technically Supreme your economy will be the best your military will be the best by the way like look at like two days ago there's a $24 billion program to arm the army with this incredible Next Generation Vision system initially it was given to Microsoft Microsoft realized they couldn't do it what did they do they gave it to a startup andril now what happens that technical Supremacy filters in through the economy gets into our military our military will be that much better than everybody else and that cycle for whatever reason was frozen in time for literally 15 years and this is what we need to undo and in that 15 years the biggest mistake we made was we allowed China to catch up and now they have a level of technical Supremacy that Rivals ours and in some cases exceeds us and that was a mistake that we allowed to happen I seed this company about eight or nine years ago to make drones for the sea it's called s s drone yeah great company and you know s drone now has um contracts with the Coast Guard and the Navy and all of this stuff but these are as you can imagine autonomous drones that you can deploy literally from the United States and it can get to any conflict hotspot and it has all of the sensor arrays it needs to collect information send it back Etc but to your point Jason the obvious thing five years ago would have been to add some kind of kinetic ability to those drones right meaning those drones by the way one of our drones was famously intercepted by the uh Iranian Navy okay uh I think in the straight of hormo or someplace but the reason we weren't able to add that you know kinetic ability 5 years ago is because sort of internally when you're building these things in you know Berkeley California people people have an opinion on that this is not cool or this is the the Patriotic thing is to actually not make these things happen and somewhere along the way now I think we've had a couple of examples andrel being the best where no the Patriotic thing is to actually make sure Pax America wins abolutely and it's incredible that we it took all this time for to be able to say that without sounding like some you know right-wing loon and and and now we have to play catchup which I think is the thing that frustrates me a little bit it makes me concerned quite honestly but if we can if we can get it done then I think we'll be in a much better place no I and I think he said the quiet powered out loud and you weren't allowed to say it because it was you know almost like some it was like a virtue signaling test you know you have to maintain this line even though everybody behind the scenes already knew to your point the answer I mean the the crazy thing about Russia Ukraine is a couple things one is you know it pulled us in to a situation where the Europeans really should have been taking the lead and instead you know we had to have the opinion then we became the major fun it turns out we sent you know 200 plus billion dollars of which at least a 100 billion has gotten completely misplaced which is unbelievable um and it just goes to show that you can't even have a conversation about what's right or wrong and so now you know do we need to audit what happened over there probably do we need a resolution yeah instantly and I would rather us be able to take our mental energy and focus it internally and I think that we we weren't allowed to say that to your point when I said that it was really more in the context of China and you know uh some of the things that are going on in China but it also applied to Ukraine it applied to many things and you know people tried to cancel me and I thought wow this is crazy um and now it looks like you know most Americans I think to your point believe that the right thing to do is just to focus internally and get our house in order long give our money back the long tale of that conflict though guys is going to play out over many decades in Europe I think that you know the question is well can Europe change the Playbook meaning you know in the middle of that conflict to basically just torpedoed their ability to actually import energy to then still continue down the path of turning off domestic nuclear France was the only one that basically said this is crazy I'm not going to do it and then have to import all this energy from all over the world at all these exorbitant prices at the same time the economy is sort of very fragile like the European continent is in a lot of trouble and these last three or four years have actually added a lot of fuel to the fire so I think like you know smart people need to have a better opportunity to just like be smart in public and then have the public be able to absorb that and actually make decisions that's why that's why the these things are nuts like what's happened is crazy there is a seismic shift on the horizon one that has the potential to send shock waves through the real estate sector as well as the stock market the convergence of structural imbalances increasing economic pressures and shifting political Dynamics is laying the groundwork for a significant transformation to take place according to kth a powerful new political movement is currently taking shape and it is one that has the potential to fundamentally alter the economic landscape it is possible that the impact on asset prices will be significant as policies continue to develop and priorities shift there is a possibility that the old Playbook will no longer be applicable in this rapidly changing environment so both homeowners and investors need to get themselves ready for the possibility of volatility I appreciate you watching
Comments 0