저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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러시아-우크라이나 긴장과 연준 긴축이 겹치며 시장 변동성이 커졌다는 진단. 결론: 유동성이라는 핵심 버팀목이 사라졌고, 연준이 늦은 만큼 정책 실수 리스크가 크다. 지정학 리스크: 분쟁이 전면화되면 원유·곡물 등 공급 충격과 제재에 따른 수출 차질로 스태그플레이션 압력이 커진다. 시장은 외교적 해결 또는 '무전쟁·무평화' 상태를 가격에 반영 중이며, 무력충돌 가능성은 충분히 반영되지 않았다. 유가가 배럴당 100달러를 넘고 휘발유가 갤런당 5~6달러까지 갈 수 있다는 시나리오를 언급. 경기 전망: 미국은 스태그플레이션 바람을 맞지만 즉각적 침체로 이어지진 않는다고 봄. 유럽은 공급 차질까지 겹쳐 더 취약. 미국 경제 최대 리스크는 연준의 정책 실수. 연준 정책: 3월 회의에서 50bp 인상 가능성을 언급했으나, 본인은 25bp만 올리고 향후 경로를 명확히 하라고 권고. 7차례 인상 전망은 미국 경제에 과도하다고 봄. 신뢰 회복이 목표이며 지금은 '최선'이 아닌 '최소 나쁜' 정책의 시기. 인플레이션: 공급 충격에서 시작해 임금·가격으로 확산되는 단계이며, 기대인플레이션이 탈anchor되는 것이 가장 위험. 연준은 인플레이션 역학에 대한 신뢰가 낮아 이를 회복해야 함. 자산시장: 연준의 월 1,200억 달러 자산매입 종료로 가장 신뢰받던 매수자가 빠지며 주식·가상자산 조정은 자연스러운 결과. 다만 펀더멘털이 탄탄하면 유동성 장세가 아닌 실적 기반으로 회복 가능. 실적 불확실성이 커지고, 긴축 시기가 늦어져 연착륙 창은 좁아지는 중. 출연자 전망: 시장이 연착륙 가능성을 낮게 보고 있으며, 긴축 속도와 지정학 변수가 맞물린 민감한 국면이라고 강조.
다듬은 글
and as just pointed out all of these headlines coming out on ukraine and russia um it's a very fast moving situation a lot of conflicting headlines and the market has been very sensitive to those headlines so let's get some perspective on this as well as of course perspective on the fed and inflation i want to bring in mohamed el-erian he's president of queen's college at cambridge university and chief economic advisor at allianz muhammad it's always great to see you you know we've been through a lot of market cycles right and we have seen geopolitical conflicts before or threats of conflicts that don't really seem to affect u.s equity markets this one feels a little bit different is that because of the nature of the conflict or the nature of markets right now it is both um the conflict itself if it were to get worse which is a big if that if it were to get worse would blow a very strong stagflationary wind through the global economy so that factor is something that the markets are keeping an eye on but there's also something else as you rightly point out we have lost our most important anchor for a very long time this market had the anchor of a very accommodating liquidity regime inflation changes all that we can no longer depend and rely and predict massive injections by the federal reserve and once you take that anchor away you're left with a corporate earnings anchor and that one is significant that's why actually markets have behaved relatively well but it's nothing like the bigger one that has gone away which is this continued injection of liquidity i do want to pick up on that but first follow up on the first comments you made about russia ukraine maybe presenting a stagflationary threat to the markets we've seen the effect that we on oil prices right pushing oil prices up because of concerns about supply is that your primary concern here regarding that and then the knock-on effects of that or there are other elements that we should be considering so it's more than oil if you look at russia and ukraine they are major exporters of a number of commodities and if there if a conflict were to break out in military conflict then you would have sanctions that would limit exports from russia and you would have disruptions in ukraine so the first elements simply a big cost push second you would have a significant blow to sentiment confidence and a further blow to globalization so that's why this is a significant thing to look at the marketplace right now is pricing somewhere between we get a good diplomatic resolution or we stay in this uncomfortable no war and no peace we're not really pricing in the possibility that this may be an armed conflict i understand why that's the case because most people think it's not going to happen but that explains also why the market's so sensitive when there's news of some sort of problem if you like on the ground and muhammad if the situation does escalate you could very easily get oil prices well over a hundred dollars a barrel gas prices five to six dollars a pop is that recession worthy for this year it would certainly as i said have the stag stationary wind is it rese does it mean recession automatically i don't think so um certainly not for the united states it will be more problematic for europe because it also gets supply disruptions on top of the price hit but i think the united states don't underestimate um the resilience of the us economy i think the biggest risk to the u.s economy is a fed policy mistake that that is the biggest risk well that's something we've talked a lot about before muhammad um so take me to the march meeting of the federal reserve do they need to raise by 50 basis points it's a really tough question you know one of the problems of being so far behind and that's why you've heard me for the last nine months say be careful the fed is falling behind is you you no longer have a best policy it's your least bad policy um and you've got to make difficult judgments they could hike by 50.
the argument being move in a in a bold manner and try to regain the policy credibility that you've lost the problem is that they may end up pricing in subsequent increases of not 25 but 50. they what if they just keep 25 well the market may be at first relieved that we didn't get more of a hawkish response but very quickly they're going to figure out that persistent inflation is an issue and increases the probability of the fed slamming down the brakes down the road so you know we have this issue now that we in the world of second best and there's going to be really delicate judgment calls to be made my if they were me i would try to regain the policy narrative by only doing 25 and being very clear on what comes next but i wouldn't validate seven rate hikes i think that's too much for the u.s economy muhammad i would these rate hikes you know what when did they start impacting the u.s economy even at 25 basis point hike in march it's still raising interest rates what's the economic effect of that so the direct economic effect should be small we're starting from very low levels liquidity is still abundant i mean even today the fed is still injecting liquidity we have an inflation rate of 7.5 percent and the fed is still injecting liquidity that doesn't stop till next month so if it is you know it's still a very liquid environment the concern brian is that there's also qt around the corner and the market hasn't quite figured out how you price qt so let's put qt on the side saying we get to that later and that's why you've had a replacing of the interest rate complex without any disruptions it when you start playing around with liquidity then it becomes more challenging so the answer to your question is no one knows because we haven't had a situation where we have significant qt and higher rates coming at a time when the market has been accustomed for so long on zero interest rates and just massive injections but do you think muhammad a 25 basis point hike in march would that do anything for inflation because as you know we're seeing this inflation because we're still in the middle of a global pandemic yeah i mean people confuse this all the time they say the major problem supply disruption labor shortages the fed can't do anything about it that's absolutely right but historical episodes of inflation happen in the following way there was some shock to the system in the 70s it was the old price increase the next thing you know the inflation process becomes much broad-based that's what's happening today and then inflationary expectations get de-anchored what do i mean by that in a perfect world you want people to say this inflation is truly transitory i don't need to change my behavior but because inflation has stayed high for so long people are changing their behavior they're asking for compensation higher wages companies are raising prices that is all adaptive you're adapting to what has happened the really dangerous phase is anticipatory when you feel that to protect your purchasing power to protect your profit margins you need to protect against future inflation and that's what the fed can help avoid is that inflation expectations become a main driver of inflation we're not there yet but if the fed is not careful we will get there and and that's why it's important for it to show that a it understands the inflation dynamic because right now it has very low inflation credibility because it got the call wrong for so long and then second that it regains control of the policy narrative muhammad something else that we've talked a lot about is something you know people keep saying we haven't had inflation for years well we had acid inflation for years right of all of all different types um and we have started to see that come down in in anticipation of what the fed's going to do you know stocks with lofty valuations in the private markets to some extent crypto has come down to some extent as the fed actually embarks upon its raising and tightening uh cycle what do you think the effect is going to be on all of these assets where money has just been pouring in over the past several years so it should come as no surprise to people that we've had some pullback when the buyer the most reliable buyer with their own printing press and an incredible willingness to buy when they step out of the market that is a fundamental change to the marketplace so it shouldn't come as a surprise that we are lower because 120 billion a month of asset purchases are disappearing now that need not be disorderly if you can establish and you still have strong fundamentals people will come in and and take the leg up based on something much more lasting than a liquidity regime the concern we have is by being late the fed also puts economic growth in play and that means earnings become more uncertain so that's why this is a a very delicate period there is still a window to get this right but unfortunately that window is is closing and the last set of data the cpi the ppi and the retail sales just give you a sense of how far the fed is and how much more difficult it will be to get a soft landing we're all holding our breath uh so to speak uh amidst all of this muhammad good to see you thank you so much mohamed elairian president of queens college at cambridge university and chief economic advisor at allianz thank you so much
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