저자: Kevin · 외국인
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CPI 발표 앞두고 인플레이션 가능성 논의. 정부·연준의 대규모 부채·재정 지출로 인플레이션 압력이 커질 수 있고, 인플레가 부채 부담을 줄이는 효과가 있다고 봄. 4월 CPI 상승 베이스효과 예상하나 중장기 고인플레는 불확실. 인플레 시나리오별 자산 전략으로 성장주는 단기 약세·장기 강세, 가치주는 단기 강세, 비트코인은 인플레 헤지로 유리, 부동산은 장기 고정금리 레버리지가 유리하다고 설명. 본인 포트폴리오는 부동산 약 50%, 성장주 약 46%, 비트코인 약 4%.
다듬은 글
buckle up because we're about to go through an inflation playbook how to invest if there's going to be a lot of inflation or a little inflation or how to diversify your portfolio and if you want to learn how to build your wealth after you see these principles make sure to check out the links down below for the amazing program so you get 39 off using the coupon code to the moon and folks let's get started with the video hey everyone meet kevin here so on tuesday morning at 8 30 a.m eastern time which is 5 30 in the morning my time consumer price inflation data for march comes out and folks a lot of people hate the consumer price index in fact most of us watching this are probably like dude come on man because the cpi is like the lie of the government just look around man prices are going up like so what the stats don't say there's inflation there's inflation just go out into the real world leave your studio for once right like totally totally agree yet the reality is all of us on tuesday are going to be like oh what is that cpi data gonna say well folks i wanted to talk about exactly this and some ideas and some projections and how to invest in potentially inflationary times but also invest in ways that would benefit if inflation doesn't manifest as high as we think it will so first i wanted to start with with this which this was a really contrarian piece on inflation that i thought was really good actually this was in the financial time financial times on thursday inflation offers escape route from debt crisis uh and so this here says uh basically he's setting up look we've been printing money like crazy every country in the world pretty much has been spending money like crazy to spend their way out of the coveted pandemic we've printed 25 to 30 percent of the money that exists in the world uh and and the money keeps flowing i mean you've got joe biden who's running an over four trillion dollar deficit plus the fact that now we're going to have this uh additional potentially 2.2 up to four trillion dollar infrastructure plan remember the 2.2 trillion dollars that was just the first half of the plan but anyway he so he sort of sets the stage that look folks how can there not be freaking inflation coming okay this is nuts this is absolutely nuts uh and so here we go uh he talks about how uh governments uh were basically in the past forced to take unprecedented uh unprecedented measures to avert a 1929 style depression it's basically let's spend our way out of getting into depression we don't want to be in a depression but then he says for the entire house of cards not to collapse though because countries have taken on so much debt he says that quote growth and inflation need to be restored it is the only way to repay the debt legacy of the crisis and this is an interesting argument because generally when we think of inflation we think bad but wait a minute think about one of the positive externalities of inflation watch this so let's assume you make 50 000 a year if you make fifty thousand dollars a year and you have twenty thousand dollars in debt that debt level doesn't go up or down let's say that means for every one dollar that you earn you have about uh 40 cents of debt but what happens now if you get a pay raise because there's inflation or you get better at doing what you do you become more efficient more productive whatever you get a pay raise well 50 turns into 65 with a 30 increase so that means now when you were previously making a dollar you're currently making a buck 30.
there's that 30 percent increase well the cool thing about debt is even as you make 30 more let's just say it was all due to inflation like you're the same productive worker you didn't get any better at your job let's just say it was all inflation okay in the extreme that it was a hundred percent inflation as to why you got a thirty percent pay increase your debt is still twenty thousand dollars so now you have 40 cents of debt uh for your buck a 30 which before your debt was a 40 burden on on the amount of money that you had in a year you made 50 000 40 of that could have gone to pay off your debt well now all of a sudden you make 65 000 and 20 divided by 65 is actually only a burden of 30.7 30.8 percent so your debt burden went down because you're making more money and this is intuitive the debt stays flat and your income goes up the debt is easier to pay off so really what this author is arguing is that hey if we have growth if we have productivity and and people making more money and earning more money and inflation well now debt stays constant and your pay can go up for two reasons one inflation but also if you become more productive your pay could also go up and so this is how inflation and an increase in productivity can really help us quickly accelerate burning off debt it's like throwing gas into a fire of productivity yeah let's run a little hot let's run with a little inflation but let's also increase our productivity fast and we're going to make this debt look like nothing we're going to cake walk it away the problem is this does hurt some people mostly it hurts fixed income folks so for example if uh you are retired and you make money off bond yields like bond coupon payments well unfortunately unless you're investing in something like tips which are treasury bonds that adjust to whatever inflation is your money is going to be worth less and this is where a lot of folks get frustrated like wait a minute like i worked for my ten thousand dollars in treasury bills let's say uh and now if the government's just gonna make everything run hot and inflate away the debt that's not fair to me that's not fair to people who have invested in debt it's not fair maybe to lenders and maybe it's also not fair to people who are saving but it does also encourage people to go okay well i may not i may as well not save i may as well invest so you have this really weird sort of give and take when it comes to inflation and productivity but this individual here is saying that look look at the situation we're in right now low interest rates a ton of money printing at the same time savings rates are at all all-time highs like we last saw in the mid-1970s which is also when we left the gold standard and had a crap ton of inflation i'm not talking a little bit inflation we're talking like 9 to 15 and so this author makes the case that here's the thing all of the recipes exist right now for big inflation and big growth which is going to be good for debt like we need that to burn off all the debt that we have but he's giving a warning to say you got to be prepared because when that inflation comes you want to be investing properly now he gives advice for exactly what he recommends which we'll talk about in a moment but i want to read this quote at the outset of the crisis the fed's bold action including large-scale financing of government debt was timely now it is hard not to see it will lead to a de-anchoring of inflation expectations and a revival of the specter of 1970 style growth in prices in english look we needed to spend the money to survive but now we're starting to realize okay this is gonna be a little bit of a problem we're gonna have some big old-time inflation and so we gotta be prepared for it in fact he says quote we believe this might be the case again with the rest coming after the summer once economic data revealed the true health of the u.s economy and its inflation path the fed's role in distorting asset prices is set to diminish as market forces reassert themselves in other words everybody was relying on the fed last march and the fed bailed everyone out now the fed's got to step out of the way and he believes the market's going to force the fed out of the way markets going to take over and that's what we've already started seeing happening in march or in february in march when we've had this big pullback to pricing inflation because folks are gearing up ready for that inflation to come and so uh before i mention what he talks about investing i'm going to talk about what i would potentially recommend investing in i i think it's very interesting to note that yeah in some sense having higher inflation while it does diminish the value of your dollar if you're invested and you're a borrower you win and this unfortunately accelerates that k shaped uh sort of wedge we have in society where it's harder for people who don't have assets and businesses and then debts against those to get ahead because inflation hurts them inflation makes it harder for them to survive on a day-to-day basis or to get that new computer or to start that business right all their startup costs go up with inflation it's really just people who already have wealth who really benefit off inflation but he says it might not matter even though it might not be equitable to see inflation coming it's coming and you got to prepare for it because the fed's not going to have control of this the genie's out of the bottle so to speak so now let's talk about where to invest in these potential scenarios but to do this i also want to give you my projection and then we'll compare where to invest all right so first my projection so this is my thought on how consumer price how the consumer price index might move and i understand this is not exactly the best measure of inflation is just one arbitrary measure that we have but this is what i'm going to chart with so we already know 1.3 and 1.7 these numbers already came out for january and february as annualized rates i think in march as in the data that comes out on tuesday i think we're going to see a really nice bump so we're going to really see this acceleration in inflation and it's really going to be its worst in april and the reason i see this is just looking at the base effects of where we sat last year what was the base we sat at last year and this is why we see this big bump of inflation because we had a hole last march april and may and so then i think we're going to slowly unbury ourselves from this and we will see higher inflation but we might not see this genie on the bottle style inflation that we're worried about or at least some of us are worried about now i'm going to talk about investing in both scenarios but take a peek at this there is also the possibility that we do have a form of inflation that just does something like this and this could potentially lead to this higher style inflation that many folks are worried of that we might run over to four five even six maybe seven percent inflation i'm not sure many folks i'm sure there are some but i don't i think most people would say if we're going to see higher inflation it might be around these six seven percent ranges maybe not as high as we have previously seen like that ten to fifteen percent but i think that's an alternate scenario here so i think these are the the two scenarios here you've got either inflation going up and i'd say maybe this range right here kind of this little middle section here i'd say that's probably our you know 95 percent likely range right here that sure is it possible that we'll see lower or higher of course but i'd say this is probably the 95 percent that we should be thinking of and obviously you could draw your own chart and think of your own 95 percent uh and then if we were to say okay well what what is a middle probability here well i think it's personally i think it's going to bias a little bit to the lower side and so personally i think this right here is about 50 probable being somewhere below 3.5 percent inflation and then maybe this section over here uh also has like a 40 45 probability of maybe running a little hotter than that three and a half percent but this that gets a little bit more arbitrary you know where we think things are going to go i think the better thing to do here is to decide okay how do we invest in these sorts of environments and so the first thing that's useful to consider is what happens to different asset classes so what happens to stocks what happens to bitcoin what happens to real estate well so with stocks generally what happens with inflation is high growth stocks so anything that's growth with inflation we tend to see with inflation high growth stocks go down in the short term so i'm going to write short term uh and that's because we're really eradicating future potential earnings with inflation we're devaluing those future earnings because money in the future is going to be worth much less to us but in the long run growth stocks can still do very well it just takes longer term and the reason for that is inflation does ultimately lead to prices going up even in deflationary tech if we do have a lot of inflation we would expect to see prices going up and those earnings in the future and projections for future earnings should go up and so in the long run we should see growth stocks also do well in inflation in the in the shorter term we have other stocks and these are oftentimes considered the value stocks value stocks can be whether they're financials or industrials or recovery stocks oftentimes now when we think okay we're going to have a growth uh or sorry we're going to have inflation so we'll draw this here and say uh value with inflation usually in the short run these guys do very well because folks say ah well we don't want our future growth getting eroded away so let's just park our money into value stocks or just stocks that look cheap today at some point in the future though we'll see that rotation back and so in the longer run in my opinion we could potentially see uh value stocks will still do decently i think they'll they'll still kind of go up and to the right maybe not straight up like growth might in the long run but i think we're going to have a little divergence where you will see highly indebted indebted companies even with inflation i think they're still going to suffer and so they're probably going to trend down a little bit more especially as things in the long run rotate over to growth even though inflation makes it easier to pay off your debt these particular companies in a uh in an inflationary environment which could also potentially be a really hot economy might end up suffering to the burden of the amount of debt that they have and they won't be able to catch up with growth growth will outpace them so quickly so in the longer run very very bullish for uh for growth to do very well in the long run uh value in the long run i do think will go up but at a slower pace and uh indebted highly indebted companies will probably trend down over time with inflation this is the with inflation uh scenario here right and then in the short term growth is what really gets hurt yeah which for some who are willing to be patient about it i can see that as a buying opportunity but anyway that's usually what you end up seeing in inflationary environment obviously if there's no inflation or low inflation well then that long run for growth will just come faster and we'll see that that increase in growth stocks much sooner than we would if we had to go through sort of an inflationary cycle because this high inflation won't last forever at some point even if we went to high inflation we might end up just vocally down and if we do pull volcker down there is also the possibility of a short-term depression where a companies go through painful de-leveraging and this is kind of exactly what we see here where that painful deleveraging would probably lead these highly indebted companies to go bankrupt and growth will survive because many of the growth stocks are just not highly indebted and so they'll end up coming out the winners either way so in either scenario when it comes to stocks for the long run i mean it's one thing if i wanted to momentum trade you know i can momentum trade some of these trends but for the long run i really want to be in uh the growth because with or without inflation in the long run i think i'm going to do very well on the growth plays and so that's an expectation that i have that's sort of my theory on stocks uh now uh what if we run over to bitcoin let's instead of uh stocks let's call this uh bitcoin so with bitcoin the two scenarios would be inflation or uh not right so we'll put or not inflation or not so obviously in an inflationary environment uh well i shouldn't say obvious i ran a poll on twitter which follow me on twitter i really kevin if you haven't yet i ran a poll and i asked why folks invest in bitcoin and about 48 of you said you invest in bitcoin as an inflation hedge and so i do think that bitcoin does stand to do very well in an inflationary environment so if we get that higher inflation i do think bitcoin will will do very well especially if more corporations uh put some of their treasuries you know with cash that they have or cash and equivalents that they have into bitcoin it's very likely that in an inflationary environment uh we could easily see bitcoin five to six x you know 300 to 360 000 uh dollars per coin is not unheard of uh of course there are many folks who believe we could see bitcoin a million we could see bitcoin 500k uh certainly bitcoin 100 i think is within the radar uh and this is of course barring any kind of massive debt crisis that ends up coming out of a rehypothecation crisis in the crypto lending market because of a lack of uh of governance and uh you know we don't know where all these loans are going and how often loans are being made so there could potentially be a debt crisis in cryptocurrency which would just be very bad for cryptocurrency all around uh but aside from that kind of debt crisis i do think that inflation is going to help push bitcoin we'll draw this a little bit more clearly to 300 to 360 000 now if we don't see inflation and and we do start getting this this decline of a run here which i expect the decline to really start taking hold somewhere around june or july and that's really when we'll see this inflection point where either will maintain that higher inflation or it will go away which i do expect that it will go away not only because those base effects will be gone but i do think supply chains will repair themselves over time uh and it does take time for supply chains to fix themselves but remember supply chains have been repairing themselves now uh or been trying to for over a year now or at least in june or july they will have been for over a year now because supply chains really got damaged in march and april of last year and and now we're starting to see some of the effects of that the shortages chip shortages lumber prices real estate price is so high that lumber is so high right and other real estate inputs are so high so now if we do not see uh inflation i do worry that one of the big reasons i mean almost a 50 reason for people to be investing in bitcoin evaporates there are of course many other reasons to invest in bitcoin but if inflation goes away it's possible that uh as as growth stocks start taking off potentially more than bitcoin does uh and let's say bitcoin you know this summer hits a hundred it is possible that that it could in an uninflationary environment either trade sideways or stagnate a little bit in value so i'm not here to prophesy that oh bitcoin's going to zero i just think for a trading and momentum mindset if we do see this sort of downtrend in the chart here where we start going down i do think bitcoin potentially will suffer in an environment like that whereas obviously i think it'll do very well in the inflationary environment okay then let's touch on real estate here so then we have real estate so with real estate real estate it's a little bit of a double-edged sword so with real estate uh what i really want because there could be a lot of pain in real estate in a high inflation environment but let's talk about this so in a high inflation environment what's really going to win the winner uh and there's really going to be a limited style of winner here but the person who wins with high inflation in real estate is the person who has long fixed rate debt and cash flow to cover see the beauty of long fixed rate debt is in an inflationary environment if we do see this high inflation scenario we'll expect interest rates to go up substantially and you'll want a fixed rate loan so that your payments don't go up and you want it to be long so that your your payment doesn't balloon or all of a sudden become do and payable at a time when you have to refinance at a substantially higher rate that would be bad so variable or short-term debt is definitely more at risk in real estate and not having the cash flow to cover the payments on these debts would also be an issue so you want enough cash flow to cover and service your debt and you want that long fixed rate debt that way if we do have high inflation and we end up getting interest rates to go up remember the rule of 10x if interest rates go up 2 real estate prices could go down 20 percent there could be a large adjustment in real estate prices downwards in an inflationary environment however even as real estate prices adjust downwards in a shorter term inflationary environment and rates go up for a few years to sort of control put the genie back in the bottle so to speak control that inflation anyone who's able to ride out that storm is going to see their debt become a whole lot less valuable which was is a benefit a partial benefit of seeing inflation their debt will become relatively cheap uh compared to what they have now and so this is where with high inflation real estate investors could really win or anybody with debt could really win now personally i do not encourage uh debt on bitcoin i think debt on bitcoin is bad it's it's very volatile i think any more than 20 debt uh so anything greater than 20 debt on stocks i think that's bad margin calls are bad margin calls and bitcoin are also very bad but debt in real estate is actually very very good and so there is this argument that it might make sense if we do expect larger inflation to come it might make sense to invest more heavily in a safer real estate debt maybe buy that house get that long-term fixed rate debt i'll buy that multi-family building and get into the real estate market so that your your debt gets worn away in an inflationary environment now if we don't see that inflation then and rates do not go up to hurt real estate prices in the short term because in the long run i still think real estate prices even if we go through a short term uh you know high rate environment in the long term i think real estate prices are likely to continue to to increase uh and not forever i mean i do think that there could there would be a substantial amount of pain don't get me wrong uh with with high inflation but i think in the long term anybody who can hold on to the real estate will benefit substantially but the point is here that if if we do believe we are going to go to this higher inflation environment we would benefit from either momentum trading value stocks now or riding the pain in growth stocks because growth stocks are likely to do well in the long term so you'd have to really be able to time your exit on those value stocks or certainly at least the recovery highly indebted value stocks that that look like value right now that but that are really value traps with bitcoin you want to be aware of the momentum as well because if we start getting that inflection point to the downside as well i think there could be some softness in bitcoin pricing and then real estate unless you have cash flow and you could cover this long fixed rate debt you have it's going to be very risky to take on short-term debt because we could see a dramatic decline in real estate prices in the event that interest rates go up substantially to combat inflation but someone in the long run is really going to win in that sort of scenario so i'm going to give an example here let's say somebody has a 300 000 house and they take out 200 000 of debt let's do it in red here uh 200 000 of debt uh and so now we have interest rates go up you know two three percent whatever and the value of this real estate comes down to let's just make an example here 200k uh and the value of our debt goes down to 200k so now we've had real estate prices go down but in order to see this like in this case like three plus percent increase in interest rates or potentially even more the person's still able to make their payment they're not getting margin called whatever yes some equity has gone away but what is a benefit of a higher inflationary environment well you have debt so the amount of money that you're working for your your income should be increasing in an inflationary environment the productivity of any of the goods or services you're producing or commissions you're receiving or whatever should be going up in an inflationary environment as long as we're also in this booming economy right and if we're in a depressionary economy well that could also be a potential issue as our income goes down or our productivity goes down but nonetheless we're not forced to sell and what's happening every single month is we're still paying off this debt and whether we're getting paid more or tenants are getting paid more inflation will make those older dollars less valuable so let's go say we go through a period of uh five years of inflation and we end up having i don't know let's let's go with six percent inflation for five years okay so if i do uh two hundred thousand dollars or let's say i make fifty thousand dollars of money okay fifty thousand dollars of money is what i make and we go through six percent of inflation-adjusted wage increases one two three four five and that puts me at about that sixty seven thousand dollar income so now i have sixty seven thousand dollars of income where previously i had 50k and that's five years at six percent inflation the same is hopefully going to be true of my very qualified tenants so it's actually very likely that an inflationary environment could foster rents to go up see even though prices right now are going up so parabolically rents are not keeping pace right now in many different areas don't get me wrong rents are up but they're not keeping pace and that's really because it's just more affordable to buy so more people are buying inventories low less people are selling so you're seeing this big wedge at least in in the areas that i'm looking at seeing a wedge in what prices are versus what rents are like rents are not keeping up with home prices right now but an inflation in inflationary environments when wages go up but maybe real estate prices don't go up you can actually ironically see inflation push rents up and if rents and incomes go up your income your tenant's income that debt becomes substantially less valuable like that example with the 20 000 credit card we made earlier so then of course after an inflationary environment has come and gone as long as you've held on to your real estate and then interest rates come down well now your income is higher your tenant's income is higher your rents are higher but your debt is still denominated in those really old dollars which are worth a lot less now so to me trying to figure out a balanced portfolio in this environment between real estate bitcoin and stocks is the big challenge now this particular author here he argues that the return to inflation could help ease the debt burden but it will be hard to swallow since it arbitrarily transfer transfers wealth from savers to borrowers exactly it transfers wealth from savers to borrowers we don't like borrowing on stocks we will not borrow on cryptocurrency but we will borrow on real estate for exactly this reason as an inflationary hedge real estate could operate very well especially since real estate prices oftentimes do ride on the inflation curve so if this is what inflation is here real estate prices often either match it or ride slightly above it and then you benefit because of leverage in real estate but anyway this particular author says that investors needs to need to prepare themselves for this shift by seeking value stocks rather than chasing new fads so this particular author encourages the value stock argument i encourage a little bit of a balanced portfolio so i want to give these bottom lines here so if you are a momentum trader i think recovery uh recovery and value uh and even bitcoin could be good momentum but you're going to have to be careful here because that momentum could shift quickly especially at the point of this inflection if you are a a real estate investor you really want that long fixed debt and you almost you almost i know this sounds crazy but you almost want as much of that as possible because an inflationary environment you're gonna win and uh if we don't see a lot of it and this is even if prices go down you're holding for the long run right your goal is to eradicate that debt not to try to flip the property it's not like you're going to buy real estate and go i'm going to try to flip this for a big profit because prices only go up no no no i am warning that prices can and will go down in an inflationary environment but your goal is to eradicate that debt so that when you come out on the other side you're coming out like a bandit because you've got really really cheap debt and yeah i mean your rents are up your incomes up whatever so long fixed rate debt on real estate uh is is going to in my opinion be good in both scenarios so you win in high inflation you also win in low inflation uh if the momentum trades they'll work short term but you have to be aware of these these changes so bitcoin recovery value stocks be aware of those the one that's going to hurt the most in my opinion is really going to be a growth but it's only going to hurt in the short term and that short term is either while we experience inflation or while we anticipate inflation because obviously if the inflation woes go away then we would expect to see lower inflation so those are the the three ways that uh i advocate uh investing and sort of diversifying in these inflationary or potentially inflationary times the biggest thing that i'm doing just to be transparent is i'm about four percent uh bitcoin i'm about uh 50 uh yeah 50 yeah i would say right uh 50 uh real estate and then about a 46 growth stocks so that's uh that's that's my breakdown and so you can see i'm really i'm really taking a strategy that's uh heavily focused on the long term i would not be in growth stocks if i was not in them for the long term and i wouldn't be in real estate if i was not in them for the long term i would be tempted to flip out of my real estate i'd be tempted to flip out of my growth stocks in the short term if i was solely doing momentum plays uh and then bitcoin i'm keeping an eye on his momentum play and then sure i might mess around with some momentum trades and things like that but it'll be a small part of my portfolio since again we're about 50 real estate about 46 percent growth and then that four percent sort of momentum this is the more entertaining part right here right uh but my lungs are very very strong so anyway uh this gives you my inflation playbook and why inflation might actually be a good thing for people who have assets unfortunately everybody doesn't uh get screwed which is uh that is the mission of my channel is to make everyone who watches my channel realize that uh if if uh if you don't have assets you get hurt in this country unfortunately and uh if you want to learn my perspectiv and building your wealth with real estate with stocks uh or sales or youtube or property management you name it links
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