저자: Kevin · 외국인
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kathy would just said but i'm also going to provide you my opinion layered into a summary of what kathy wood just said in her latest release on the ark invest channel kathy wood is a bit surprised about the federal reserve and this is where we're going to start first she wonders why jerome powell is now focused on things like homelessness when she believes that that drone powers should be focused on inflation jobs and growth in the economy she says she's not you know saying that preventing homelessness is bad but she's worried that jerome powell is diversifying with his mission and his focus too much my opinion on this well she's right this is something we've talked about on the channel before over the last few weeks and i mentioned too i thought it was kind of different it was a shift in jerome powell's stance is what i talked about it as and the shift was all of a sudden jerome powell was talking about a lot of social goods like climate change or homelessness and it's definitely a shift when the federal reserve has usually only been focused on jobs and growth another shift is the federal reserve focusing heavily on max unemployment or max employment and defining that as making sure that blacks and hispanics minorities women all get back to full employment so sort of broadening the mission of the fed in my opinion this broadening of the fed is actually a way of the fed saying look we'll we'll keep rates low longer because we want all of these things to do well well those aren't going to be the first things that are going to do better whites and asians have a much lower unemployment rate than blacks and women so even when the total unemployment rate goes down to you know three and a half four percent again it might be a while for minorities and women to get their unemployment rate down and so this to me is a tell that the fed might try to keep rates lower longer unless of course they get squeezed out by inflation which kathy's going to be talking about in just a moment kathy also says that here's the thing jerome powell should be focused on inflation and growth but this was a big one she says she's worried that the fed is potentially losing control she says quote i'm not sure inflation is in the fed's control this is a big statement here this is really kathy saying hey look maybe they're spreading their mission out because they realize they're losing control on inflation so maybe a little bit jaded but she could be right and she's echoing a symptom or i should say a sentiment of what a lot of folks believe about inflation that basically the fed's getting ready to get smacked upside the head and the fed's going to realize they're going to have to raise rates remember what jerome powell just said at the imf at the international monetary fund when sarah eisen from cnbc asked what are you going to do if you start losing control of inflation are you going to raise rates john powell said well yes that would be the principal tool that we would use to control inflation so kathy could be right here and a lot of people believe that big inflation is coming and the fed's losing control kathy used the ppi increase the producer price index a measure of inflation increase as a way to sort of evidence that the this inflation is starting to manifest itself in actual readings on tuesday we get cpi data and we're expecting to get smacked in the face with some ugly year-over-year cpi data but what we're really going to pay attention to is that month-over-month data the ppi month-over-month data came in at a one percent inflation rate which if you analyze that that's over 12 per well that's 12 that's huge that's a lot that's a big inflation rate kathy says she believes that jerome won't react to this which is something that he said uh and is happy that the market has been mostly muted in reaction to this and that's potentially because the market has already heavily priced in inflation in that crash that we've kind of seen in the march and this is something that i agree with kathy on as well remember that car analogy we've made on this channel where essentially oh my gosh higher inflation's coming all of a sudden bond deals rise quickly and it's kind of like whoa you're in a car and all of a sudden it jerks really fast rather than a nice smooth acceleration she's right we're getting a lot of jerkiness in this data and the market is not overall really liking it this is leading to what feels like a very bizarre market hard to kind of grasp exactly the direction the market's going to go in in the short term in the long run we know that kathy and even myself are really bullish on high innovation style stocks we'll see anyway kathy what goes on to talk about the uh fiscal governance uh in our country she talks about uh suspending money like essentially there's no tomorrow she talks about how there is a currently a 63 increase in federal outlays massive increases in the deficit four trillion dollars a year being spent and biden now wanting to add another 2.2 trillion dollar infrastructure plan kathy says this is going to lead to the market uh to be essentially in a quote confusing period as the market tries to sort this all out and this echoes what we felt over the last six weeks we felt this that sudden jolt in the bond market which hit the stock market hard now lately we're kind of like okay all right what's going on which way are we going you know even recovery stocks and some of the value stocks have sold off a little bit now we're like okay all right where are we going now right kathy says the reason for this is maybe in addition to the rate shock we have the fact that because every day it's like oh here's another thing we're going to be spending more money and more money more money at least the way it feels in the media it feels that way that every day we're always talking about spending more and more money she worries look the market is going to be confused by this and she calls this a confusing period that we're going in and in her interview or in her discussion i should say she sort of mentions that this could take six plus months to sort out so we could be in this weird period for quite some time to come i thought that was interesting to highlight that potentially this confusing period might not just be a six week issue but it could be something as long as six months so we'll see furthermore on the on taxes so on the corporate tax rate kathy wood believes that rates for corporations won't end up going up to 28 that they'll end up getting negotiated down to about 25 my opinion on this is probably right on this again and i agree with kathy on a lot of things i'll let you know when i really clearly disagree with her which i i will in this video as well uh but she mentions that uh she believes this rate's going to get no she negotiated down to 25 i believe this is very possible because of people like joe manchin joe manchin remember what joe manchin did with the stimulus checks last time joe biden biden said hey you know what maybe we'll be open to negotiating the flexibility of who gets the stimulus check right before the stimulus package passes joe manchin says i want less people to be eligible for the check otherwise i'm not voting for it he's that 50th vote in the senate they need him as a democrat he ends up getting what he wants and stimulus checks them to end up getting reduced for qualifications for for families by uh well from up to 200 000 to get a check scroll down to 160 thousand dollars and up to a hundred thousand dollars as an individual scroll down to 80 000 as a cap for getting a stimulus check joe mansion one there i expect the same thing potentially to happen with the corporate tax rate we already know that joe manchin is opposed to the 28 tax rate so just stay tuned i would not be surprised if he ends up putting up a wall drawing a line in the sand and saying i will not vote for this unless that corporate tax rate is lower i'm okay with it going up but not that much and guess what joe biden's already said he's open to negotiating the corporate tax rate that was a big bomb that dropped last week so right here kathy's suspicion is probably going to be correct and i'm kind of outlining some of the mechanics as to how that could happen on a personal tax rate kathy wood suggested potentially arc invest might be leaving new york new york is increasing state income taxes she sees an exodus from new york and connecticut even california and she sees this trend accelerating as businesses and people consider leaving to states like florida this was a big statement now we'll see uh i can't convince lauren to leave california so at least for the time being i won't be part of that exodus but i totally get it trust me i do the numbers all the time uh now on the economy kathy wood says that the economy is rebounding nicely from the weather hit that we sort of had in january and february and she mentions that we have not seen economic data as strong as we're seeing it now since 1994.
she also mentions that the latest unemployment report came in stronger that the average work week went up 0.2 hours which is a larger than expected and this is potentially a sign that companies are struggling to keep up with demand labor shortages job openings at record highs and she sort of outlines why she thinks we're going into this booming recovery my opinion on this i have to agree again the fact that right now companies are struggling to keep up not only with supply chain disruptions but hiring folks because companies are still competing even though you know there's research that says maybe companies aren't fact of the matter is there is still an unemployment boost of 300 per week we're not going to see that unemployment boosts go away until september and so it's entirely possible that in the lower wage tier segment we might see less competitiveness for job openings leading to more job openness in other words less people are looking for those jobs right and so businesses are spending more of an effort trying to find people to get their businesses back up and running and this is also accelerated by the fact that less people are traveling to the united states to do temporary work uh like we have the j-1 visas and these are folks who come to america for a season like at ski resorts and work at restaurants or whatever and we're seeing less of those now because of the disproportionate impact covet is having around the world so that's that's also accelerating this trend that kathy's talking about commodity prices she sees soaring she didn't she kind of just mentioned that obviously we know a lot of this has to do with huge supply chain issues right now so adding my uh comment on that uh she does mention though that the dollar is going up which is something big that nobody really expected to be happening or that it would happen and she says that a strong dollar could help counter higher inflation as long as we have a strong productivity so she kind of sees a little bit of a dueling match here can we get to strong productivity while having a stronger dollar remember if we have a strong dollar it's harder for us to export our goods so that means we maybe are able to sell less goods abroad so this is sort of that dueling match that she sees here but she's right nobody did expect the dollar to go up a lot of folks were thinking the dollar was going to continue its crash and it was slipping down substantially so the fact that it's going up now is bizarre she's correct about this again uh then she brings up her inflation argument again which i've broken down quite a few times i'm not going to rehash it in full here basically good deflation is technological innovation bad deflation is when old guard companies have to drop their prices to compete she sees all of these things a strong dollar hyper productivity in the economy and these two deflationary forces as keeping uh prices down however she is concerned that the fed is going to lose control of inflation and that there will have to be an interest rate increase now she's not proposing hyperinflation but even if inflation sits around three or four percent the fed's going to have to raise rates sooner to control that and bring that back down to that two percent range now kathy provides a reason as to why potentially we saw massive jolt in bond yields in march and february she believes that banks started to realize that oh we're not going to get the slr the the liquidity ratios extended with the fed so banks are going to have to have more liquidity and so as banks came to realize that banks potentially sold bonds which if you sell bonds price goes down yield goes up but what's the other benefit of selling bonds you have cash if you have more cash you get to you qualify towards these ratios more so potentially banks were big sellers of bonds she believes and that's why we saw this jolt in yields and maybe we might see a pause maybe that's why things have settled down because that x that that target date was march 31st maybe that's why we'll see this relaxed sort of potentially slow but still confused recovery here in april another thing she mentions which and i'm gonna i swear i'm gonna disagree with kathy here in a moment okay there's just so much agreeing i think we think along such similar mindsets and i think it's it's so wonderful and i'm not trying to elevate myself to kathy's status at all i think i just think it's wonderful yeah and i also don't want to put myself in an echo chamber so i'm looking for things to disagree with right but this is an interesting argument the archagos drama which i covered as well the big hedge fund uh multi-leveraging up where essentially archaeos was able to take willie huang was able to take somewhere around two to three billion dollars and potentially extrapolate that eight to 10x which is ridiculous and this is done by a process of rehypothecation where you're basically taking your collateral and promising it to different companies to the point where no bank knows who actually is it gets gets a claim to that collateral right big issue anyway she mentions that the fallout that we saw from arkaygos could have potentially led to a massive market disaster the reason she believes there could have been a massive market disaster is because when other banks around the world saw this archagos unfolding this drama unfolding a lot of other banks could have checked collateral hey is this rehypothecated what happens then if we want we want uh to claim this collateral and what if all of a sudden banks start freezing liquidity lines or start dumping a bunch of stocks for other family funds like archangel so what if that sort of chain ripple effects throughout the economy there could be a massive sell-off just from that that could be a huge catalyst for de-risking but she says that didn't happen she said this was a battle test and we're actually reassured because this didn't happen fascinating argument i mean it's true like that that totally you know every corporate compliance or or lending risk management division went through their books that day after the sort of archaegos uh you know block sale disaster yeah so good point again then she talks about the rotation uh this rotation to like financials actually being a good thing banking going up she believes when prices of of things like value stocks that that are highly indebted not all value stocks but stocks that are highly indebted and maybe aren't innovating and banks that aren't innovating she believes that when those prices go up it's actually a good thing for her the stock she invests in like square because she believes that it's just a matter of time before a company like square disrupts a company like chase and then all of a sudden if chase is at a higher price boom here goes square to the moon now uh she obviously didn't mention this part about the price i'm i'm interjecting this but if you have not yet i encourage you to watch this if you're interested in knowing a little bit more about chase versus the rest of the market and especially fintech watch the video that i did breaking down what jamie dimon just said at chase so uh just type that into youtube meet kevin jamie dimon it'll come up you'll see his face on there really really good breakdown of uh the massive like 66 page letter jp morgan put out it summarizes it all for you then kathy talks about how we might be in this era of a big transition where we go from late 1800s to early 1900s all of a sudden we get cars electricity light bulbs we get this massive explosion and growth from innovation and so this is her belief this is what she is investing heavily in and she believes this disruption could be a lot bigger than what we've ever seen before and that's why she's going so heavy on her innovative companies and her innovative picks she mentions that elon musk responded to her on twitter uh her and her company on twitter asking about what about the buffett indicator why is it that market cap to gdp is as high as it's ever been and as she mentions this this is simple now this is where i'm actually going to disagree with kathy a little bit uh so and i think you'll you'll like my reason for disagreeing with this so kathy mentions that look here's the thing uh when we calculate market cap to gdp we put market cap up here to gdp i'm going to use fake numbers here just to make an example let's say the market cap is ten dollars and gdp is two dollars that gives you a market cap to gdp ratio of not five dollars but it gives you five right that's your market cap to gdp when you increase gdp what happens well your market cap to gdp goes down instead of five it'd be like 3.3 right so the more you increase gdp the more your ratio goes down and this makes sense this is intuitive like in this case you'd have a gd market cap to gdp ratio of two so what you want is gdp to be going up the problem and keep in mind what gdp is gdp is gross domestic product it's the sum of everything that is produced in the united states now some make the argument that this has to do with def like um with internationalization or i should say globalization gross domestic product is different from gross national product which also includes what we're producing uh and selling overseas which gross domestic product is just here but the reason she gives for gdp to market or market cap to gdp going down is because she believes that innovation is deflationary and when you have deflationary innovation you're actually not going to increase the gdp you're going to decrease it so remember what we had earlier here which was if we go 10 divided by 2 we get to 5.
but if prices go down because of innovation then all of a sudden market cap to gdp can go way out of whack and she believes because we're going to see such deflationary forces in technology she thinks gdp could actually go down due to deflation and lead this market cap to gdp ratio to go up substantially now if if we compare this to reality here where we currently stand we're probably more like this 100 over 20 which would put us oh sorry a hundred over uh let's go with five there we go this would put us somewhere around a uh buffett indicator of somewhere around 20.
that's roughly where we sit right now as a buffett indicator of around 20 and sometimes we see this go from 20 to this 25 range somewhere around there's where we're bouncing around kathy and she admits she thinks this sounds crazy but she actually believes that there's a possibility she's not betting on this but she believes there's a possibility that the gdp is going to decline potentially relative to market cap in this formula well i guess she believes the conclusion is going to double she believes that however it ends up happening the mechanics of this she believes this ratio the buffett indicator ratio could double to 40 or 50 or basically the s p 500 for example could be selling for 40 to 50 times earnings in the future mostly as more innovation gets priced in but we actually see gdp lower because things cost less because of these deflationary forces so her opinion is deflationary forces is why this market capped gdp ratios is going up and why it's so relatively high now i'm gonna this is where i'm going to disagree with her so while what she says could be true i don't believe that gdp is going to go down uh because of uh deflationary forces i think we're going to find more things to entertain and pleasure ourselves with uh you know toys computers travel we'll we'll have more stuff you know we'll have ev tolls and we'll find more ways to spend more money on more stuff right in which case i actually think gdp is going to grow however i do think that there is a short-term problem that we face and when we look at what goes into market cap right now what's driving a lot of market cap are high valuations at growth companies the problem with growth companies is a lot of growth companies have low earnings today so that means you put a high valuation into market cap for growth but you're not seeing a massive increase in the gdp because these companies just aren't making a lot of money just yet like tesla is going to make a lot more money when they're selling 10 million cars than when they're selling a million cars or 500 000 cars like last year that's going to show up in gdp but right now tesla's valuation shows up and not the dollar signs right another thing to consider is another thing that goes into market cap are all the recovery stocks recovery stocks have blown up since november right so you got recovery stocks that have massive amounts of money going or massive valuation increases since the election that moves up market caps but what's also not happening at recovery stocks yet revenues folks revenues even though we're starting to reopen they're not making a lot of money yet which means we're not seeing that reflected in gdp yet so in my opinion and this is where i differ from kathy why do we see a high buffet indicator it's because lots of companies are primed to make lots of money either through reopening or innovation but they're just not yet except the stock market is starting to price that in already mostly because of recovery and innovation forces so uh this is a place where i disagree obviously but you know and i'm not saying that her thinking is definitely wrong but i do think gdp is going to trend up because people will spend more money on spending more but i agree there are going to be big deflationary forces so it's kind of like a half disagreeable okay so uh this kind of gives us a little bit of an overview of my opinion of what kathy wood here had to break down or what she had to say now i want to give some bottom lines here so some big bottom lines that i got from kathy out of her latest talk here are first of all she thinks that bond yield spike could be temporary i thought this was huge mostly because of that slr selling off if she's correct on that which i think i have a suspicion she could be i think that's a really good analogy uh i we've already previewed before her video we've talked about how we believe this corporate tax rate is going to stick at 25 completely agree with her opinion on that surprise she didn't talk as much about supply chain disruptions and how that could be an issue for short-term inflation why we might see that short-term inflation but why it might not stay she didn't spend a lot of time touching on that just briefly touched it moved on from there does believe that at some point the fed is going to get forced into raising rates sooner than expected but does believe we're seeing great signs in the economy for recovery strengthen the recovery strength in the fact that we didn't have a disastrous fallout from the archagos disaster we saw uh and she's got some theories for for why the buffett indicator is as high as it is she believes it's inflation i believe it's low earnings uh but uh you know both could be correct here in in their own respects so there you have it uh these are my opinions on top of kathy a summary on what kathy wood had to talk about and folks i appreciate you watching if you like my insights and perspectives you can use that coupon code down there and folks we'll see in the next one you
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