저자: Paul · 외국인
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AMD를 엔비디아와 비교해 '차세대 엔비디아' 가능성을 제시하며 장기 성장성을 강조. 엔비디아 주가 급등 사례를 근거로 AI 칩 시장 점유율 확대 시나리오 제시. 다만 밸류에이션(PE·FCF 배수 165/135)이 높고 현재가 218 대비 중간 가치 140으로 할인율 기준 기대수익이 낮다고 평가. 개별 종목 단정 대신 '가능성' 강조, 최종적으로 가격이 가치보다 비싸다는 신중론.
다듬은 글
Nvidia's stock price exploded from $14 in 2022 to over $180 today, turning early believers into millionaires. Now, analysts are calling another AI chip stock the next Nvidia. Could this be the next opportunity to 20x your money? Let's take a look. After a meteoric rise of a stock everyone is going to buzz, what's the next?
So, what's the next Nvidia? You've seen the headlines. If you missed Nvidia, buy this stock now. So, why are people chasing the next Nvidia? Simple. Because Nvidia exploded in the past two years and people have FOMO, fear of missing out. They want to be the next ones to catch the next hype stock. But let's rewind the clock to late 2022.
Everyone thought Nvidia was toast. This is after a big bare market that caused some tech plays to fall 30 40%. In fact, Meta fell down to $88 and people were saying Meta was done. Nvidia alone was down over 50%, closing the year around $14 after adjusting for splits. Why is that? Well, first off, the pandemic chip frenzy has started to cool off.
Suddenly, everyone had enough computers, phones, PlayStations, no need for more chips. Then enter Chat GPT. In November of 2022, suddenly everyone needed GPUs to build their AI models. And guess who makes the best GPUs on Earth? That's right, Nvidia. And guess what, guys? GPUs ain't cheap. Their chips became the picks and shovels of the AI gold rush.
By the end of 2023, Nvidia stock was up 239%. And 2024, another $171% gain. The stock hit $134 per share. Demand for AI data centers exploded and Nvidia was cashing in big time. So much so they did a 10 for one stock split in June of 2024 to make shares more accessible and cheaper. But obviously if you've watched this channel, you realize that a stock split does not actually make a stock cheaper.
But we'll get in that another time. Fast forward to October of 2025 and Nvidia is now trading at over $180 per share. Now today, we're going to dig into the competitor stock of Nvidia that's being called the next Nvidia. In this video, we are going to break it down the everything money way through principal driven investing and logic.
Guys, let's be honest. Everyone, including myself, loves the idea of finding the next big thing. That one stock that turns $1,000 into $20,000. It's the dream, right? The next 10 or 20x play that makes you feel like a genius at Thanksgiving dinner. And the media knows it. Analysts, YouTubers, even CNBC personalities like Tom Lee and Jim Kramer, they throw out names every week.
This is the next Tesla. This is the next Nvidia. This is the next Amazon. It's exciting. It's emotional. Is it logical? The problem is this hype machine can lead people to confuse potential with price. Just because a company might be great doesn't mean the stock is a great buy, especially if the market's already priced in that perfect future.
So, what's the company? AMD. Let's have a real no BS talk about AMD right now. AMD is where Nvidia was just a couple of years ago in terms of market cap. And that's a big reason why it's getting a lot of attention because people see that and say, "Oh, it's the same market cap. It'll become the next Nvidia." But Nvidia went kaboom, growing like crazy because it dominated a specific GPU market.
We're talking about 85 90% market share. That's a monopoly style grip on the market that's still growing. That market is expected to hit 550 billion by 2032. But here's the thing, guys. Monopolies don't last forever. Markets evolve. As you saw from Nvidia, their margins are huge, guys. If margins are huge, people are going to enter that market.
And especially with the fast growing nature of it, people are going to want options out there. Apart from Nvidia, new players will absolutely show up. Old dogs will lose a step. So, who's next in line to benefit as Nvidia inevitably gives up some ground? Enter AMD. Now, I'm not saying AMD is going to dethrone Nvidia.
It could, it could not. It could happen tomorrow. It could happen years from now. It could never happen. But if Nvidia just drops 10% market share over the next 10 years and AMD grabs it, that could be a massive payday for AMD. Let's do some math on the board. Let's say that number for 550 billion in 2032 happens and let's say AMD grabs 10% of that.
That's $55 billion in in actual revenue that AMD is going to get that year. Now let's assume their bottom line profit on this 55 billion is 20%. That equates to 11 billion in profit, right? 55 billion in revenue, 20% profit, 11 billion dollars in actual bottom line profit. That's what's added to their numbers.
Let's assume they have 2.5 billion today, which I think is what they made. You're talking about conservatively 13.5 billion. Let's call it 15 billion in profit in 2032. Okay. So, a company with 13 billion in profit. What's that company worth? Now, the story so far has been great. Their profit quadrupled.
it went up 5x whatever it ends up being. So that 15 billion in profit what would you assign what kind of earnings multiple guys remember we have a PE ratio we don't know what the PE is going to be seven eight years from now but we can sit there and say hey if historical average for companies is 15 or 16 and AMD is a great company let's say we sign at 20 that makes a $15 billion business times 20 $300 billion market cap now before we compare that to where it is today let's get a little bit more into the story AMD just inked a deal with Open AI.
Yes, the chat GPT people to supply computer power. This could be worth tens of billions of dollars over time. More importantly, it plants AMD squarely into the red hot AI chip market, which let's be honest, everyone in their dog is throwing money at right now. In addition to that, demand for data setter chips is exploding.
Every company wants more servers, more cloud, more AI. It means more and more power. AMD CPUs and Instinct GPUs are getting better, faster, and they're gaining traction. This isn't just gaming anymore, folks. We're talking real world enterprise computing, the kind that's very profitable if you do it right.
Remember, AMD has a small piece of this market right now, but they have a lot of potential to grab market share from them. If they just reach over and grab a slightly bigger slice while the pie itself is baking into something twice as big, you've got a company that can go from solid tech play to monster long-term compounder.
I want to repeat though, this doesn't mean it's going to happen. I am definitely not saying it's going to happen. I'm just talking about this great story that we have. There's always risks. Execution matters. Anything can happen along the way. Nvidia is not going to hand this to them. you better believe Nvidia is going to put a lot of money behind fighting this.
But if you're a long-term investor and you care more about what a company will be like 5, 10, 15, 20 years down the road than what the stock price is doing today, AMD could have real potential. But remember, we're not here to chase hype. We have to understand the business. We have to look at the numbers.
And remember, when you buy a stock, you're buying a piece of a business. You're not buying some ticker that goes up and down. So the real question is, does the fundamentals over time justify the story? That's what we're always asking. And this is where true investors need to focus. Don't just chase the headline like the next Nvidia.
Understand the business. And does the price versus the value make sense? Our goal on this channel is to buy when price is below value. Just like when you go to the store, you don't want to pay more than you have to for something that's worth $100. You want to pay less. Now guys, to give you a little history of me, back when 0809 was happening, I was excited.
Remember, this is what I'm trying to tell people. Some people sit there and look at it and say, "Oh, Paul's negative about stocks." No, I'm not. I get negative when price and value are very disconnected, where price is above value. This is a Ben Graham quote. The intelligent investor is the realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.
If the market fell 70% tomorrow, I'd be screaming from the hilltops going, "This is awesome." If the market doubled tomorrow, I'd say be even more cautious. Same thing with these individual companies. Now, I'm going to go over a lot of metrics here. If it feels overwhelming, you're not alone, guys. I'm trying to simplify everything as much as possible.
But let's go over some of these metrics on AMD right now. So, $355 billion market cap. What I like here is their enterprise value is only $10 billion higher. So in layman's terms, what does that mean? This is essentially if you take all their cash and all their debt netted out, it'd be $10 billion of net debt.
Why is that important? Well, here's why, guys. They have $4 billion in cash flow in the last year. That means based on this, if they take all their cash and use it to pay off their debt and then use the next two year and half years of cash, they'd have no debt whatsoever. That is a really good thing.
AMD has a good balance sheet here. Okay, their profit margin is only about 10%. Not great. So, as a comparison, let's pull up Nvidia. Nvidia's bottom line profit margin is 47 to 52%. That is a big big difference. So, AMD has the potential to really grow their profit from here. That's what I like about this.
This company can not only grow its revenue that bottom line profit if it grows to 15 or 20%. Absolutely explodes things. Okay. Couple other things. No dividend which I'm like low returns on capital. Why? I don't know. This metric means when they invest money in the business, what kind of return do they get on that money?
You want to buy companies where the return that you put into the business is way higher than what investors want and what debt holders want. Now look at some other things here. three-year revenue growth rate 11%. 5year 31% 10 year 20% per year. That's incredible. And it's all done naturally because look, they've only spent $126 million in acquisitions in the last 5 years.
That's nothing for a company that generated $4 billion last year. It has a $355 billion market cap. Now guys, if you're newer to investing or if you've been watching our channel for a while and want to kind of understand these key metrics more, I've got a shortcut for you. I've done all the work. I've put all these metrics in a very easy PDF that's absolutely free.
This is a big reason why I teach on YouTube. I've been teaching for a long time because I really, really enjoy it. And I love it when everybody is speaking the same language. And for you to get the most out of these videos, whether it's today's video or future videos, we need to be speaking the same language.
So, click the link below. In a matter of a couple minutes, I will email you the all of these metrics, their explanations, why they're important, so you can understand them as time goes on. Now, remember, couple minutes, I'm going to find out what price I'm going to pay for the stock after going through more data.
So, let's take a look. And by the way, in our community, the average we have a hold on AMD right now is the average rating in our community. And if you're in our community now, make sure you go there and put your vote in. Okay, so for AMD, there's four X's and four checks on our eight pillars. Remember, this doesn't mean buy it or ignore it, just because there's a lot of X's here.
What it means is understanding a story. I told you guys before, low debt. That's this metric right here. Revenue is up 22 billion. Net income's up 2.2 2 billion. Cash flow is up 3.4 billion in the last 5 years. Here's what I like. Their cash flow is showing about a 15% margin there. Remember we talked about before their current margin is about 9 and a half% of net income.
So this means that it is getting better potentially, which we love. Now, low returns on capital. Here's what I hate, guys. Shares outstanding are up 33%. That means they're diluting owners. could be okay because if the stock's really expensive, get the shares out there. Get the money in the hand of the uh of the company.
They can do better with that money than than sitting there and buying back shares. But remember, don't think for a second that increasing shares is a good thing. This is a very overlooked metric that a lot of people ignore. You've got to pay attention. What is the company doing with their shares? If they're increasing shares, that means they're giving more and more people a piece of your revenue, a piece of your cash flow, a piece of your profit if you're an investor in the company.
Now guys, these are my eight pillars. For those of you who are new, all these are are the things that I look at very quickly to get an idea of what the company's doing. What are the next questions to ask? Now, here are the metrics that bother me. They're fiveyear PE, fiveyear price to free cash flow, or 165 and 135, guys.
for a $350 billion market cap business that's very very high. Now, if I told if you told me tomorrow if God came down and I said, "Paul, for the next 20 years, AMD is going to increase their profit 50% per year." That's cheap. But if God came down and said, "Paul, AMD is going to increase their profit by 5% a year for the next 20 years." That's really, really expensive.
And guys, when we do our stock analyzer tool, we're going to have to assume a future PE and price of free cash flow. That's how we're going to sit there and determine what a reasonable price to pay for the company is. And guys, by the way, I don't know if you guys are aware of this. AMD and Nvidia, two major companies, their CEOs are cousins.
Not like, oh, it's like that. They're literally cousins, which is kind of interesting. So, let's go to analyst estimates here. Well, analysts see two and a half times at least growth in earnings per share over the next four years. And then revenue growth. Wow, look at this. 33 billion up to 61 billion in the next four years.
That's, you know, close to 20% a year. That's incredible. Now, guys, I want you to know something. This is very important for this video. Most investors lose money because they try to pick winners. The best investors do exactly the opposite. They eliminate the losers first. That's what we're trying to do here.
When we analyze a stock, the stock analyzer here that we're doing is putting our assumptions in, matching the story and the numbers. If we put our assumptions in, we're going to sit there and see how far how close are we to a buy price. Are we really far away from the buy price? Either low or high. This is going to determine our next steps.
That's why the stock analyzer tool is the most popular tool in our portfolio here. It's used over a million times per year. Now, I'm doing a 10-year analysis. You can do one to 20 years on here. I always pick 10. Revenue growth. I did 8, 16, and 24% a year for the next 10 years. Guys, I want you to keep in mind these are two very big numbers here.
Now, you might be sitting there saying, "Yeah, but Paul, it's AI." Very true. But remember, how many other stories in the past did we hear that were obvious buys and they didn't end up working out. That's the thing I exhibit caution on. Profit margin. Now, guys, I went higher on profit margin. I did 8,5 and 22.
Same on free cash flow. Keep in mind, 15 and 22, they never really done here. They got close last year on free cash flow, getting 13.6. 66. So 815 and 22 gives them higher potential here for growth. Now PE and price of free cash flow. The question here is this. 10 years from now, what would be the PE that this company should get?
Remember historical average is 15 to 16, but you should pay more if the company's better and pay less if the company's bad. What makes the company better? Do they get good returns on capital? Are they growing fast? Do they have good margins? The good news is their return on invested capital has been better from the last five years and the last 10 years.
So it might be getting better here. Showing the business is better. They've got good margins. They've got low debt. They have a pretty good story here with a lot of growth potential. I put an 18, 21, and 24. A far cry from here. Do not attach yourself to this number right here. It's about comparing it to the 15 or 16 average in the market and going up and down from there.
And finally, what's my desired return, guys? I do 9% here. Why? Well, 9% the market. I'm trying to find my intrinsic value. What that means, I'm trying to find what's this company worth. But remember, I don't buy based on 9%. If I only want 9 or 10%, I buy a lowcost ETF. I need to have a higher number here for my margin of safety.
How high? That's up to everybody individually. Now guys, believe it or not, 25 years ago, I would have bought the story at Nvidia and AMD and absolutely bought them. I was chasing hot stocks. I was following tips. I was getting caught up in the hype, hoping that something would stick. But I realized thereafter that's not investing, that's just gambling.
And that's exactly why over time I created Everything Money. I wanted to give people like 15 or 20-year-old Paul the tools, the strategy, and the community that I never had, that I desperately needed. So when I created this software in this community, my goal was to create a foundation. We want to sit there and have a community in which people could come in integrate themselves by watching courses so they have all the same foundation.
I wanted to get engaged in our community of like-minded investors who are all trying to level up their investing so you have the mindset and support alongside the tools. Guys, this community, this software isn't for everyone, just the right ones. If you're committed to investing the right way, if you're committed to understanding that when you buy a stock, you're buying a piece of a business, if you're committed into learning why you should buy things, I highly encourage you to start your 7-day trial.
Click the link below. We have limited spots each day, but it's a great way to sit there and level up your investing so you can be the person who guides yourself, not looking for other people for answers. And guys, there's more than just a community chat. We have live streams with our analysts that are growing, work with you and answer the questions on a weekly, monthly basis.
That way, you're on the right track. So, back to the stock analyzer. These are all our assumptions we put in. I hit the analyze button. The stock's currently at 218. Guys, this is why I'm apprehensive. 36 on the low side, 420 on the high side, 140 in the middle. That means if you pay today's price and the middle assumptions occur, you're getting about a 4% return on a discounted cash flow basis.
Now, if the high assumptions occur, that's a pretty solid return, 17%. But how likely is the high assumption to occur? We don't know. All I know is if we have 30 stocks in our portfolio that have these metrics, you're probably not going to do very well. That's the key here. We're all about making educated and informed decisions here, guys.
Earlier this year, I picked seven stocks to go head-to-head with the Magnificent Seven. Click the video on your screen to see which stocks I picked that I own and how they stack up. The results will actually surprise you. Thank you for your time.
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