저자: DanIves · 외국인
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테슬라 사이버트럭 출시 행사를 앞두고 Dan Ives가 성장 스토리와 주가 목표를 낙관적으로 제시한 영상. 핵심 결론: 사이버트럭 출시는 테슬라 성장 스토리의 다음 단계이며, 목표가 310달러를 기본으로 제시. 사이버트럭 전망: 수요는 광범위한 브랜드 효과에 기반하며, 예약 수백만 건 중 40~50%가 실주문으로 전환돼 연간 25만 대 수준 정상화 가능이라는 추정. 행사 관전 포인트: 가격대 6만~8만 달러 유지가 핵심이며, 그 이상이면 대중시장 타격 우려. 생산 복잡성과 기가팩토리 역량이 관건. EV 시장 전망: EV 침투율 3~4%에서 확장 여지가 크며, 완성차 전환 규모는 수조 달러로 추정. 하이브리드 회귀 우려에 대해서는 테슬라가 기술·규모 면에서 선두를 유지한다고 평가. 경쟁 구도: BYD가 글로벌 2위, GM 등 기존 업체는 규모와 복잡성 때문에 EV 시장 경쟁이 어려운 것으로 봄. 기업 정체성: 테슬라를 단순 자동차 회사가 아닌 AI·배터리·충전 기술 기업으로 보며, 자동차 기준 가치평가는 과소평가라는 주장. 주가 관점: 자동차주가 아닌 기술주로 거래된다면 주가가 더 높아야 한다는 논리이며, 일부 목표가 4만4천 달러 사례도 언급. 310달러는 기본 목표가이며 더 높을 가능성도 시사. 출연자 전망: Dan Ives는 향후 이번 사이버트럭 행사를 테슬라·머스크의 역사적 전환점으로 기억될 것이라고 평가. 리스크/조건: 예약 전환율, 가격 목표 유지, 생산 역량 등이 충족되어야 한다는 전제.
다듬은 글
time for our Spotlight on Tesla the company's highly anticipated cybertruck event is tomorrow it's in Austin Texas it's at 3 p.m. eastern time there will be some deliveries of the Cyber truck Dan IES is waiting on this event managing director equity research wed Bush Securities I know you're waiting on the event right you this is a big moment right um what are what's your anticipation for tomorrow other than the time and the place what could come out of this tomorrow it's historical moment for musk and Tesla in terms of not the launch of cyber truck what that means is another growth what I view is a growth vehicle but really this is part of the hallo effect I mean it's something where I think Tesla n's investors in the industry have been waiting for and I view this as the next phase of the Tesla Growth Store it's cyber truck and then eventually there's going to be the sub $330,000 vehicle and I think a handful of other cars that that where this is all heading so you know as we talk about the Cyber Tru and I know there's no delivery numbers expected for 2024 um could it most likely be a winner overall I mean I know it doesn't feed the bottom line as much but it it's a brand thing right um you know it's super cool it's bulletproof it's made of steel it won't Dent um everybody's going to want one is that what we're getting at even though maybe some people won't admit they think it's ugly yeah look I mean Tesla's been here before right I mean many for the last decade have I think been doubters and been proven wrong again and again by the Tesla growth story led by mosque and here it's on the edge you know at least from a from a design perspective but it's millions of reservations now look let's say 40 50% of those convert this is going to be steady state in the 25 to 250,000 vehicles per year and that moves the needle financially and I think that's the key here in terms of musk unveiling tomorrow afternoon down in Austin how what percentage of those pre-orders actually turn into real orders I mean based on what we've seen from all the other vehicle launches um cuz for example with the F-150 Lightning you know we saw a lot of orders for that before it came out I mean I know there's so many orders for the Cyber truck right yeah we estimate it's probably about 40 45% in terms of the amount that ultimately convert uh you know I think many if if you look at this it depends on weight time I mean but look what we've see with riving as well I think the biggest thing tomorrow are two things one pricing needs to be within that 60 to 80k in terms of price points anything higher hard hit Mass Market the other thing is production I mean this is going to be very complex to produce that's why they built a in terms of Giga Factory and that's going to be the key but again Back Spin against the wall again and I view this as really uh you know what I'll call almost a trophy case moment you know as are able to kind of have success here uh again and so at this point now um when we think about EVs and the demand for EVS I mean I think the theme is that EV demand has been slowing some overall are we going going back to a more hybrid theme maybe not exclusively EV maybe people don't love EVS as much as they thought in 10 years is it going to be EVS the way we thought or something a little different I think it's somewhere in between now look 3 4% of Autos does that go to 40 to 50% okay let's say it goes 20% we're still talking about trillions of dollars of conversion I do think if you if you read the room in terms of what Mary talked about in the GM call I think they're even walking back a little from hybrid and in terms of where ultimately this is going to go but the reality is is that Tesla continues to really be the driver in this market and from an innovation and Tech lead and scale and scoop at the top of that mountain is musk and that and that may be very well why Mari Bara is walking that back um you know they had the UAW they made this settlement one of the pieces of the settlement was less spending and some of that less spending is actually adjusted spending Outlook is going to be on Less on EBS um and maybe they're just not trying to compete in that space as much maybe because Tesla is such a leader maybe because there's so many other names whether it's uh byd or I don't know what would you say is second to Tesla I think byd clear I mean if you look globally that that's number two but I think what's happened gm4 what's happen across the board it's like you you're starting to see the scale and scope is the complexity to get to that point to get to go to market it's hard and I think ultimately it's it's really Tesla has such a lead this is really in my opinion their way to almost stretch that it Le even from a mind and market share as this arms race does play out in EVS in 2024 and look this is an a AI stock it's a charging company it's a battery company it's this it's that it's got the genius of Elon Musk and I've heard price targets as high as $44,000 why isn't this $1,000 already if it trades more like a tech stock not like an auto stock why isn't this $1,000 yet I think it's just the first phase of the Tesla growth story in terms of where it's going I mean my my whole argument has been it's if you look at it just as an auto company you're you're missing who they are I mean that's saying LeBron just the basketball player tiger is just a golfer you know relative to who they are from a technology perspective in terms of FSD Battery Technology supercharger this is just the next phase of the global pessa growth story 310s our base price Target if you look ultimately you know where this this heads down the road I think this is one where we're going to look back in this as a historical pivotal moment for from muskin Tessa all right well 310 your face so you think it could probably go higher than that Dan IES W bush Securities can't wait for tomorrow we'll be gear it up we're all excited thanks Dan
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