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Ladies and gentlemen, Mr. Dalio has done it again. He's come out again and said that Great Time is going to force central banks to cut rates. He's talking about approximately 2024, which means we're not in 2023 yet. Let no one be mistaken, he's looking two years ahead. Does this mean we're two years away from the title 20?
The wrong button, this button. Should we then wait with cash in hand and hope the market continues to fall because the crisis could end in a scenario much worse than the great crisis of 2008, or perhaps the worst is already over? Well, indeed, in this video we're going to see quickly what's happening, how the market sentiment is settling, and we're going to see exactly what Dalio is closing with.
And finally, I'm going to give my opinion on what I think might end up happening with respect to what Ray Dalio says. So I hope you like this video, and hit that blue like button because we're going to get started. And well, we'll begin with the comments that came in a couple of days ago, in fact, they came in on Tuesday.
I wasn't very positive. The World Bank said that, well, the recession is going to be very difficult to avoid in much of the world. To say that we're going to get hit hard is obvious. This only tells us one thing: that the market is going to want to... Curiously, the market has already fallen. The Nasdaq is approximately at levels of -28 percent of its highs, and the S&P 500 is down about -15 percent.
I'll also tell you approximately... there could be more penalties in FIFA 100. We've also seen in other previous videos that the Nasdaq historically always bottoms out and rebounds about 6 to 12 months before the S&P 500. Okay, here we have a triple club that always opens voting earlier, but well, okay, we'll have to continue.
The price of war, according to the CDE, very good. Okay, so what is the price of war? It's reducing the economy. Obviously, these are the annual projections for 2022. Notice that they are only moving in one direction. We had approximately 3 percent, well, we're staying at this 2 percent. Do you see it this way?
Well, perhaps some countries have stayed put. Here we have Turkey, with its unusual situation, and the Australasians, who aren't moving. Interest rates are being raised quite aggressively, which we didn't expect. But generally, we see that the world is going to hell, so to speak. The world is slowing down, and this only points in one direction for the markets: inflationary pressures are intensifying.
Here we have the projections for 2022, and well, Turkey and Argentina, congratulations guys, number one there and number one here too. But we see that there has been a substantial change in the rest of the countries from one scenario to another, and this is the projection for December. This is the projection for June.
Indeed, this month, the cost of living crisis will cause risks of famine, etc., etc. This is mainly the big problem we face. It has been the price of crude oil, nothing more and nothing less. The price of crude oil is really accompanied by the fact that Russia is also doing a bit of a mailing plan, not wanting to pass on food, etc., etc.
Well, let's see, bad times are coming. And we haven't seen the worst, okay, we're not at the worst yet, this is something we have to be very clear about, but this too, and now let's go with what Reid Al says, this also doesn't mean that the market hasn't seen the worst, the market is a macroeconomic indicator that looks ahead, it's forward-looking, it's not for cross-lucking in terms of what inflation is going to be like, for example, tomorrow we're going to see what our colleague Ray Dalio had to say, who had just launched perhaps some fearful markets, it also fell after the decision of the European Central Bank, as we were saying, to raise rates by 0.25%, probably 0.5% next month, etc., etc., etc., the first increase in more than 10 years, but let's go, mister, here we have it, he was saying, the Serviu was saying today, if I'm not mistaken, it's structural inflation, a situation of structural inflation that is going to produce stagflation, this is the forbidden word, this refers to Exxon, if I'm not mistaken, in 1970, and this occurs not when there is inflation and there is economic decline, because this already So, theoretically, we're already in this expansion because, you know, we have a very negative hippie in the US.
Stagflation occurs when inflation continues to rise and economic growth is declining. On the other hand, if economic growth is indeed declining, we'll have to look at the growth figures for this second quarter. If we see another decline in GDP, then it would confirm that we're in a recession. Because, as I was saying, if GDP has already been negative, and YouTube is negative, well, we effectively have a recession.
What we need to look at now is not only that the economy is falling, but that inflation continues to rise. This will be somewhat easy to see by comparing it to June because we have the inflation figures for May. But the important thing will be the inflation figures for June because we know that the May inflation figures are going to be bad; they're going to be hot.
We've already seen May, we've already seen the gasoline prices, we 've already seen the food prices, we 've also seen the airline prices. We've already seen that they're going to be bad. June is the main protagonist right now. Because if June is bad again and we have higher inflation than in May, which would be a pretty dire scenario, but it's possible we could enter a stagflation situation.
This is the bad part: it could produce a lot of volatility, a lot of price action. We could even reach new lows, simply because we're officially in stagflation. The good thing is, as we saw in previous videos about the consumer, we can see how they are doing, how their savings are right now. If we look at 2008, the year of the great crisis, well, right now they're at the same levels.
So we can imagine that today, inflation comes from both supply and demand. We can't control supply, but demand, well, we do n't have any more money. We're going to control demand, we're going south. This will produce, as we said, a clear economic slowdown, but in turn, it will cause inflation to fall.
It's entirely possible that, for whatever reason, inflation continues to rise, particularly in terms of energy and food, but these are geopolitical factors. There's nothing the Fed can do about it now. Indeed, it can create a super bad and super negative scenario, but I repeat, this is geopolitics. There's nothing central banks can do.
Study the series, because are we going to war with Russia or not? Are we going headlong into it, or not? And it starts with Torra. Do we stop supplying weapons to Ukraine and declare war on Russia to get out of this economic bottleneck, or do we simply stay as we are? But I think we're going to continue with reality.
What we're not going to do is, a little bit because of the hackers, there's going to be much more spending than there will be in profits. There are going to be deficits, and that's going to continue for a long time. And for that reason, we don't want houses or bonds, nor do we want stocks because stocks are lagging behind.
As I was saying, this is the interesting thing: there are assets to withstand this tightening, and there are assets to withstand a [unclear - possibly "yin" or "zinc"], and in both cases, right now we don't want to have debt. We don't want to obtain debt assets. We are in favor of inflation-hedged assets.
And what are these inflation-hedged assets? We've been saying it for a long time. Well, in our case, we can obviously buy apartments, we can buy land, we can buy etcetera, but in our case, regarding your direct report, these are actions that have rising hours. What does this mean? That inflation raises my price, but I raise the price of my product or service for the consumer, and the consumer keeps buying because, well, I'm the best in class, or because I have a good model, because there's no competition, etc., etcetera.
For whatever reason, pricing power is the name of the game. Right now, he said that inflation is causing many people to suffocate very quickly, meaning many bonds that aren't profitable. Obviously, if we have a 3% return for investing in bonds at 3%, we're not going anywhere; we're losing money. The debt that's being held by assets and by von Hagens and by anyone who has bonds, and any colleague who has money market funds, etc., will have significant losses.
After adjusting for inflation, we end up translating, yes, much faster. It's something you can see directly, and that causes, or will only cause, people to want to sell the debt and move to another asset to have a better return, to have better profits, and that produces a A large imbalance of supply and demand is going to cause rents to rise significantly, and many apartments will obviously rise a lot, which would again cause problems.
If there's an imbalance and rents rise a lot, then obviously there will be people who can't pay their rent, etc., even if the central bank has to print more money. Why, let's say, because this demand can be met? We're going back to the same point: the central bank had to print more money. And honestly, with all due respect to Mr.
Dale, we understand that we do n't like to hear that right now, because we say, "Hey, but why would we want to print more money when we've gotten ourselves into this mess?" What's going through our heads? Well, he's not saying this has to happen now; it could happen sometime around 2023 and 2024. He also mentioned that the 2024 US presidential election is a coincidence, and we'll want to have a very, very stable economy then.
We'll want to be well out of trouble. So, what's my opinion on all this? Well, We're going to write all this down here because otherwise we won't understand the main problem we have now: energy. According to Russia, if you don't know, if Russia isn't involved, it's not about the energy problem, the energy problem.
There's no problem with rising energy prices, inflation ends, game over. Okay, there's one factor in all this that we can't take into account, and that's when this problem is going to end. We don't know, but we do know what the problem is. There are several solutions to this problem. We could go to the Saudis, who are doing well.
They could also provide incentives for oil companies to start investing more in oil, etc., etc., etc. There are different solutions, okay? With all this, and still with energy, our main problem, the second step is that right now we're in a situation where inflation continues to expand. The big question is when will this point arrive?
Well, this is where we can start theorizing. Will it arrive in June? Well, the truth is that with the May inflation figures, I don't believe it will arrive in June at all. In fact, I expect figures of... Pretty bad inflation is going to arrive in July with the June inflation figures. Well, maybe it's possible it will arrive in July because it's possible it will arrive in July even with more demand because obviously we have, and we can't forget that OPEC was saying that it was going to increase production above what was estimated.
That is to say, there was a fundamental change in what OPEC wanted to do and what it wants to do with the takeover bid. OPEC, which before didn't want to listen and wasn't listening to either Denny Lagarde or Europe or the United States, was saying, "Hey, produce more, I'm getting broke, you're throwing me into a recession." The appendix is affected upwards because I'm going to say more, if I produce more the price falls and then I make less money.
I'm not interested in OPEC, which is changing the situation. It turns out that Russia has said, "Well, maybe we're not interested in this anymore." So now Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are going to start, perhaps, to supply this demand that we had, to supply this supply. What we previously had from Russia, which can help level energy prices, is absolutely true.
Perhaps July is a bit early to see this inflation peak, so we would have to wait until August or, at the latest, September. But we would already be here; we have between August and September, in my opinion, at the latest, we would see this inflation peak. We know, then, that the Fed wants to raise rates.
Let's get to the next page fairly quickly. We know that right now the market is positioning itself that the Fed will want to raise rates to 50% in June, 50% in July, and in September we don't know. Indeed, this is the big question: if at some point inflation between June, July, August, and September reaches this peak that we have here, we're going to put it a little red, maybe we'll turn red with excitement.
We could see that the Fed here says, "Well, I do n't need to raise another 50%, so I'm going to put 25%," or perhaps nothing is needed because, as we were saying, it also turns out that we have problems with the consumer, and perhaps this economy has already slowed down. Remember, and by September, what we will most likely have is much more information.
Macroeconomic growth, etc., etc. Once we reach that peak and once we see that the economy continues to slow down, I don't expect the Fed to arrive and wait until 2023, until the end of 2023, the beginning of 2024, or mid-2024, or anything like that, like Italy's recipe for reducing these rates. Once the Fed has seen that inflation is being controlled, it quickly shifts gears and says, "Let's start, let's start with quantitative easing, let's start lowering rates." This will obviously be very positive news that the markets will be waiting for, and the truth is that I think it could arrive towards the end of this year or the beginning of next year.
So what should we do right now? Or do we think that Reid, or rather, Reid, is right? Well, Reid is right about one thing: I think there could be a big problem with supply and demand. This could end up pushing central banks, as Evian said, to print more money. Well, we'll have a pretty bad time because there are going to be problems in the real estate market that I wasn't seeing until now.
Apparently, the other solution is for the Fed to print more money, which we know it does n't want to do. The Fed is reducing its entire balance sheet faster than we even expected, so I think that although we 're in somewhat uncharted territory, I do n't see the market revisiting or breaking these current lows.
I say this assuming we see tomorrow's inflation figures, obviously. I'm saying this without knowing the macroeconomic data we have as of June 9th. Okay, if inflation comes in very hot tomorrow, and I expect it to, then maybe the Fed will have to raise it to 12%. 4 is a record. The worse inflation is tomorrow, the easier it will be for the June inflation figures, which will arrive in July, to show us that it was a peak, and the spell is broken, and the nightmare is over.
It's true that there will be a greater increase in energy costs in the summer; there could be blackouts in the US, and there probably already are. Well, maybe you're being too harsh. I 'm not entirely sure what Bailen is going to do about it, but I think he has no other choice. nationally and subsidize these oil and gas energy companies so that they, let's say, put money to work and bring us energy, and in this way become independent of Russian energy.
This doesn't have much chance of happening, maybe until after the elections, because the Democrats are mainly Greens and their voter base is Greens, and the Republicans are the Palestinian committee, which I don't really care about. The closure doesn't matter to us if you are a fundamental danger that we have there, but I don't know, we can't all have it, not as we discussed, but well, Mr.
Decisions, that's all. I think I've gone on too long in this video. As always, I hope you enjoyed it. Let me know what you think below. Do you think we've already hit rock bottom? I think, like Reid, I think, or as a gift, and I think we can still hit rock bottom. We can see more paint, what we should wait for to buy stocks, or that we should even buy more hedges, or that we shouldn't buy stocks because we are about to take off.
As always, thank you very much for having gotten this far. I hope you enjoyed it. Be happy. Tell your loved ones that If you want them, check out the links in the video description after clicking the "like" button. Especially the invitation to join our private group. If you want to know what I'm buying and selling at any given time, as you can see, I don't trust this market, so what interests me is making money from it every week.
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