저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어 주가가 최근 고점 대비 약 20% 하락했으나, 저자는 여전히 과대평가 상태라고 판단. 시장 밸류에이션 조정 과정으로 해석하며 PER 약 250, 주가 약 154달러 대비 자체 DCF 적정가 약 44.89달러를 근거로 제시. 추정 FCF를 2025년 19억 달러에서 2035년 350억 달러로 가정해도 고평가라고 주장. 투자의견은 보유(Hold)에서 유지하며, 더 큰 하락이 있어야 매수 고려 가능하다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
Palanteer stock is down roughly 20% off its all-time highs in the previous week now. I've been warning investors that Palunteer stock has been overvalued for some time. So, I'm not surprised by this 20% draw down. But what do I think about Palunteer stock? Now, I'll give you my updated recommendation for Palunteer.
I'll which highlighted that Palunteer stock was overvalued and I was able to avoid this 20% drop in valuation. I'll also share with you the reason why Palunteer stock is down and I'll update my recommendation and let you know if this is now a buying opportunity on the dip. , one of the reasons why Palunteer stock is down this week is because Citron Research, which is a short seller, took aim at Palunteer's valuation.
The research company said that Palunteer um pointed out that after OpenAI's latest funding round, it is valued at roughly 17 times its sales. Palunteer stock carries a price to sales multiple of nearly seven times that of Open AI. Imagine that Palunteer stock is seven times more expensive than Open AI which is arguably one of the fastest growing companies in the artificial intelligence space with the biggest competitive advantage with the biggest upside more so than even Palunteer which has incredible upside itself.
So, Satron believes that this valuation is not rational and uh I would agree with that. Um I don't know rational or not rational. I don't like to make those conclusions, but I do agree that Palunteer stock was overvalued and I've been saying that Palunteer stock is overvalued for some time now. I've shared with you my research suggesting why I felt it was overvalued.
So, Citra points to Palunteer's price to sales ratio. I've also been looking at Palunteer's forward price to earnings ratio, which before this draw down, Palanteer was trading at a forward price to earnings of around 250, the highest level this stock has traded for going all the way back to January of 2023.
Now, I've been bullish on Palanteer stock. I had the stock rated as a buy when the valuation was lower here around 45 and 50, right? But I uh started talking about Palunteer stock as being overvalued when the valuation started approaching 100. Okay, that's when I started talking about the valuation being uh overvalued and of course it has grown since that and so I've taken a lot of heat on my Palunteer recommendation and even a few weeks ago when I made several videos about Palunteer stock following the company's earnings I reiterated my feeling that the stock is overvalued and even in the comments section I got a lot of uh negative comments there uh people attacking because I wasn't rating Palunteer stock as a buy that somehow I was being um foolish by not rating the stock as a buy when I was looking at it on the valuation perspective comparing it to the performance.
Now I have been saying that for the previous oh over year year and a half maybe closer to two years Palanteer's performance has improved dramatically and so it deserves a more premium valuation than it deserved in 2023. I agree that a forward price to earnings for Palunteer stock at 40 that would be very undervalued at this point given the improved performance of the company.
But a forward price to earnings between 60 or 90 I would feel a lot more appropriate with Palunteer stock than a forward price to earnings up here around 200 to justify this valuation at a forward price to earnings of around 200. Its revenue growth will need to continue accelerating not just remaining where it is now.
it would probably need to continue accelerating with profit margins also expanding and not remaining the same and those I feel are unlikely to persist given the competitive nature of business given how so many companies are trying to follow in Palunteer's footsteps they may not catch up to Palunteer and they don't need to just the fact that they observe the success Palunteer is having they're going to develop more products and services to compete against Palanteer.
And so that'll put a little bit of a lid on Palunteer's uh Palunteer's prospects looking ahead as these smaller rivals will start to chip away at the company's opportunities while offering a lot lower prices to uh offset some of their competitive disadvantages against Palanteer, which is at least at least two steps ahead of the competition.
So another uh way I saw Palunteer stock as being overvalued is using . I updated this again today and in almost every time I've updated my discounted cash flow valuation for Palunteer this year I've increased the price the intrinsic value per share and it's because the performance keeps improving. So, it justifies an increase in the intrinsic value per share.
But if you notice here, my intrinsic value per share for Palunteer is now $44.89, up from around $41 uh yesterday. But the current market price, even after this big draw down at $154, is still well above my intrinsic value per share calculation. So whether I look at this on a forward price to earnings basis, on a price to sales basis, on a DCF basis, and I've looked at this from every which way, the stock just looks overvalued.
It's a great business, one of the best businesses right now, and it deserves a premium valuation to be sure, but the the premium valuation is overdone in my opinion at these elevated valuations. So even after this draw down, I don't see this as a buying opportunity. I just see this as the stock price uh coming back down to reality a little bit and letting valuation uh actually come in as a factor in what investors are willing to pay for the stock price because even my uh valuation includes very optimistic forecasts.
In fact, I'm forecasting that the company's free cash flow will increase from $1.9 billion in 2025 all the way up to $35 billion by 2035. So, I'm forecasting an almost 20x increase in the company's free cash flow over the next decade. And I'm forecasting that will continue growing even beyond this point at a rate that's above real GDP for the foreseeable future.
So I have very robust forecasts for Palunteer stock between now and the very very long run. But even incorporating those into this valuation uh model, it still showcases the overvaluation of the stock. So that's why I believe the shares are down. It's just a valuation story. Uh the stock price had gotten ahead of itself and I still don't think it's at a point which makes it reasonable to buy.
So I updated my rating as well. Uh not only do I keep track of the discounted cash flow valuations for the companies that I follow, but I also keep track of my rating on these stocks. And I had Palunteer stock rated as a hold. Um, and I updated that recommendation today. I don't think this stock is a buy.
I would need to see a much bigger draw down in the share price. Uh, I would like to own this company, but not at these prices. .
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