저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 4월 CPI는 전년비 4.9%, 근원 CPI 5.5%로 시장 기대에 대체로 부합했으나, 발표 직후 증시와 금·비트코인이 급등했다가 일부 되돌림. 시장은 CPI 하락을 근거로 Fed의 금리 인하 시점이 앞당겨질 것이라 기대했으나, Schiff는 이를 의미 없는 개선으로 본다. 그는 CPI가 통계 조작 설계로 낮게 나오도록 구성돼 있고, 정부 발표를 신뢰할 수 없다고 주장한다. CPI가 9%에서 5%로 내려온 것을 성공이라 하는 것은 틀렸다고 지적하며, 1970년대 닉슨의 임금·물가 통제가 4%대에서 시작됐던 사례를 언급한다. 4월 전월비 0.4% 상승은 연율화하면 높은 수치이며, 근원 CPI 역시 2% 목표와 거리가 멀다고 한다. 그는 현재를 CPI 바닥권(trough)으로 보며, 2%에 근접하기는 어렵고 3%대 진입도 의심스럽다고 본다. 과거 10년 이상의 통화 팽창이 파이프라인에 남아 있어 소비자 물가는 계속 오를 것이며, 달러 급락과 원자재 가격 재상승이 CPI를 밀어올릴 것이라 예측한다. 결론적으로 인플레이션은 고착되어 있고 나아지지 않으며, 세계 중앙은행들이 같은 실수를 해 글로벌 문제로 악화될 것이라고 주장한다. 발언 중 자산별 명시적 가격 방향 예측은 대부분 거시 인플레이션 관점이며, 달러 하락과 원자재 상승 전망이 주요 근거다.
다듬은 글
inflation is here it's going to get worse and it's not just in the United States this is a global problem because central banks all around the world have made the same mistake and they have enabled governments to profitably spend money [ we got the April CPI that came out and you know they've been talking about this number all week right everybody is waiting on pins and needles for this government report card on inflation and as I've said many many times you know you don't want your kids to grade their own report card that's why you don't want the government coming up with the inflation numbers because it really is a report on the economy and the government is fudging the numbers and of course you know the government doesn't have to cheat they don't have to lie the CPI does that for them it's not like the CPI comes out with a high number and then they they lie about it and they report a lower number they don't have to do that the way the CP CPI was engineered it was designed to come out with a low number so they don't have to cheat the the CPI does that all by itself because they already rigged it uh when they fixed it in uh the early 1990s with the Boston commission and they you know they tweaked it since the initial fix uh to uh rig it even more but anyway be that as it may the markets still pay attention to this number because the FED pays attention to this number and everybody wants to figure out what the fed's going to do and so they look at the numbers that the FED claims it pays attention to and of course uh the media pays attention to the CPI as well and so the markets were looking for the CPI and everybody is looking for some indication that inflation is coming down despite the fact that all the evidence is that it's not even though it is not as high as it once was at one point we were looking at nine percent year over year and now we're just looking at five but five is still a high number five is way above the two percent Target and for those of you who don't recall when Nixon imposed wage and price controls back in the 1970s the initial controls went in when inflation was above four percent they didn't wait for it to be you know double-digit it was four percent when they were panicking well we're well above that now notice so to say that five percent represents some type of success because it's not nine uh is completely wrong you know even if you forget about the fact that if the government says five it's actually ten five is bad enough even if it was only that bad and it's nowhere near the the two percent Target but in that event the markets are just looking for this number because what they're hoping is that the FED will pause officially or start cutting raids because they can declare victory in their war against inflation so the expectation was for a point four percent increase in prices in April now that's against a point one percent increase in March so if the FED were making progress why would that number be going up and in fact a point four percent increase in a single month that's a big jump that's nothing to brag about annualize that that's a high number anyway the number came out exactly as expected 0.4 however the good news that the markets initially seized on was that the year-over-year number which was expected to be 5.0 came out at 4.9 now to me there's probably a rounding error in there I don't even think there's a difference between 5 and 4.9 but now there's no five hand all of a sudden they're saying hey we got a four handle on the CPI and the markets like this oh yes we're making progress we're at 4.9 that was the only bit of good news in this report because everything else was exactly as expected the core ex food and energy was up 0.4 again taken on its own that's still a big number uh you know when you multiply it by 12 to annualize it and year-over-year core was 5.5 that was what they expected now it was slightly better than the 5.6 from the prior month but that hardly indicates that the FED is any closer to two percent because even though five and a half percent is it nine percent it's not two percent and I think that what we're seeing now and I've been talking about this on the show this is trough CPI we're kind of banging along the bottom this is about as successful I think as the fed's going to get really as close as it's going to get to two percent it might get a little closer we may see the numbers drop uh lower down I really doubt that we're going to get any number with a three handle on it because I think long before that happens you're gonna see the dollar tank and then you're going to see a Resurgence in commodity prices which are going to push on the CPI plus you still have all this inflation that is baked into the cake we've been flooding the economy with inflation for more than a decade it's a big Pipeline and uh we haven't even come close to feeling the effects of all that inflation so consumer prices have to continue to rise to catch up to the increase in the muddy Supply that is the driving force behind what's happening in prices but anyway when this number came out the markets were initially excited as soon as we got that 4.9 handle or poor handle the s p jumped the Dow futures were up better than 200 gold rose 10 12 an ounce you know Bitcoin jumped too everything was up everybody was excited and bonds Rose yields fell down because the knee-jerk reaction was oh this is good now of course from my perspective it isn't good because it doesn't prove anything this wasn't a meaningful Improvement in the numbers and I think after the investors had a little bit more time to think about it they kind of came around to potentially that uh position and then the market sold off the Dow was down 200 points at one point uh in early in the morning so it lost those gains but by the end of the day the Dow was down only slightly but the NASDAQ was up better than one percent tech stocks surged uh well I mean one percent but that's still a big move uh the s p was up about half a percent so the markets concluded that this is good news uh because it means that the FED is going to be able to start cutting rates sooner because they're winning the battle on inflation well again the reality is the numbers show that the FED is losing we're not just these numbers all the numbers I went over on my last podcast that have nothing to do with the CPI but all prove that inflation is is is entrenched that it is not going away it's not getting anywhere new to near two percent and nothing that the FED has done thus far is going to bend this curve that inflation is here it's going to get worse and and it's not just in the United States this is a global problem because central banks all around the world have made the same mistake and they have enabled governments to profitably spend money and as a result of all this extra spending and all this money Printing and all this easy credit the world is dealing with an inflation problem
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