저자: KevinPra · 외국인
요약 보기
머스크의 약 10억달러 테슬라 주식 매수로 주가가 347달러 돌파 후 급등했다고 분석. 기술적 돌파와 4개 단기 모멘텀(금리 인하, 분기말 인센티브, 세액공제 만료 전 수요, 머스크 복귀)을 근거로 단기 상승 시나리오 제시. 중기 상승은 로보택시 무인화에 달려 있다고 주장. 머스크의 추가 매수는 한두 번 정도로 보며 지속적 매수 흐름은 아니라고 봄.
다듬은 글
Well, everyone, Elon Musk just bought roughly $1 billion of Tesla stock and it's leading the stock to skyrocket on Thursday and Friday. We're all looking at the technicals because we're breaking out over our 347 line. We're like, we don't actually have a real like physical catalyst, like an actual catalyst right now for Tesla to be breaking out above this line.
But that's the thing about technical analysis. With technical analysis, you can spot these consolidations where we're bobbing between 318 to 347. For how long? Very long. I mean, we were bobbing for for months between these levels. And you can zoom out as much as you want. 318 to 347 over and over and over again.
And so last week, Thursday, Friday, we're like, what's the catalyst? It can't solely be that Robin at Tesla is talking about how great Elon Musk is. And think about the psychology of this for a moment. Robin talks about how great Elon is. Then Elon's just sitting there buying his own stock, pumping his own stock to basically reiterate how great he is.
Because it basically amplifies what the board member is saying. And then people look and they're like, well, it must be markets reacting to believing how great Elon is based on the board saying he's so great. And it's like this perfect brilliant strategy. So like congratulations Elon. This was really well played.
So very very nice breakout out of 347. We mentioned on the channel multiple times last week and in the alpha report that if we break 347 and we can confirm a 347 breakout which we did last week 414's in store. Now right now we're trading for 424. And now why is this? Well because there's a lot of enthusiasm right now and the shorts are getting burned which is great.
Nobody likes short sellers. But here's the thing. There's a lot of talk right now that uh this this is going to lead to potentially more uh you know more voting rights for Elon. Remember Elon is trying to get to 25% of a shareholder vote. And even with his trillion dollar pay package, he'll end up slightly short of that 25 uh um uh% vote.
And so this is where a lot of people are starting to speculate. Is this just the beginning of multiple buys by Elon or is this some kind of fundamental signal that Elon is selling? Uh, for example, there are a lot of people that are now wondering, "Oh my gosh, we now see it." Elon last week wrote a post and said, "You'll thank me later." This was right when we were at 3:47.
Now, this is quite fascinating because look at this. You go, "Here it is. you'll thank me later. At 5:14 in the morning on September 8th, the morning of September 8th, he goes, "You'll thank me later." Nobody really knows what he's talking about, but here's your your uh your setup. Uh the 8th was the beginning of the week, so he knows what's coming in the week.
He knows the board's going to talk. The stock's coming down a little bit. It's a bit of a red day. You're you're uh you know, you had a little some enthusiasm in pre-market. You you lost 347 again. This was a very very common trajectory. On the 8th, he mentions this and you get this explosion over here on the 11th and then you get that board meeting on the 12th likely as Elon starts fulfilling those purchases really absorbing any negative selling pressure and driving the price vertical which is really exciting obviously for team Tesla.
Now something to keep in mind is again a lot of folks are now going to look at this and say is this the beginning of a trend from Elon to keep buying uh or what's next? Uh here's my take. My take is that Elon is trying to signal to the world his commitment that he is back. This is what I talked about in my video last week on Tesla.
I said something very bullish is happening right now with Tesla and this was last week we said this on the channel. Elon is back. And we gave examples of how things move when Elon is back, how the cars are updated, how we are in in an environment where the CEO, our our boy is in the studio, so to speak, making sure everything the ship is running right.
I don't know, I need a better analogy, right? Uh here, I'll use a real analogy. I'll give you an example. Uh so with house hack for example I got I had this this vend this new handyman we were working with uh just had to do some really basic stuff and uh and you know we're expecting all right uh like we're going to build this relationship with them they've bid out some other stuff for us prices are coming in good perfect hey uh they do some work looks good hey you know what asks us hey can we skip the bidding process can we just be really reasonable we'll keep rates going like this fine okay do a project comes back with an invoice of six grand for, you know, a certain amount of time of work for a house hack property and and I'm looking at it and I go, "This does not match the output." Like I know construction, this is absolutely like at least twice what it should be.
This is ridiculous for the work that's done. So I, you know, confront the vendor. I'm like, "Hey man, like I can I can call a licensed plumber to do this. I could call a licensed so- and so to do this. I could call a licensed person to do this. And this is how much the market rates for those items are going to be.
like whatever happened on your end with operational inefficiencies is is on you. That's not my problem. That's on you. But I'm not going to pay you 2x market rates for output that didn't happen. Uh and so how get $3,000 off on the bid, right? Why do I bring that up? Because other people generally aren't going to care as much about your own company as you.
And this is why Elon being back and Robin telling us that Elon for now appears to be done with politics. what he does is on his own, but he fulfilled his mission. He's done. Same day, you get Lutnick going, "Elon misunderstood the mission for Doge. Whatever, Slutnick. Nobody cares about you." Elon's back.
And the CEO mentality is what matters. Because Tesla right now is not just a copy and paste manufacturer, even though that's what I dreamed Tesla would be back in 2022, that we would build more of these gigafactories, that we would uh expand manufacturing and get to 20 million vehicles. That's not what Tesla is right now.
Tesla is a a 1.36 trillion almost the 1337 million uh startup. That's really what this is. So, that's going to set up now for two directions for Tesla. In the short term, we've got excellent momentum. So, you need to stack this up. Here's what the short-term momentum is for you. Interest rate reductions.
Okay, interest rate reductions are one of the reasons one of our top 10 stocks to buy over the next 10 years right now is up 10% alone today. Okay, it's it's under this this like it's I think it's starting to momentum. Uh it's going to be like probably the next open door and I think it'll make even more money than than what happened with that even though we were calling open door on the way up.
Uh and and oh wow a second one of ours is up 7% right now in the morning or top 10 stocks to buy. That's all in the me Kevin Alpha report. But anyway here's here's what the setup is for Tesla. Lower rates. Tesla's always been seen as an interest rate sensitive. Fantastic. The end of the quarter. This is the most critical quarter for Tesla.
you are literally buying people's interest rates down to 0% on Cybert trucks and you're giving incentives to buy for second cars for for Tesla buyers. Uh what you're also finding is the tax credits are going away at the end of September, right? This is huge. So the $7,500 tax credit goes away unless you take a possession of this vehicle by September 30th, which means you need to hop on it now.
Uh so you know this this is like a a really big federal uh inspired expiring coupon code right here right now. Is it likely that these Teslas are going to come down in price once that credit goes away? Yeah, probably. But not right away. It's not like October 1st those prices are going to come down.
So this is a huge quarter end catalyst for Tesla. Probably one of the biggest ever. So this creates multiple positive catalyst for for Tesla. So you have interest rate reduction momentum. You have end of the quartarter reduction momentum. That's going to potentially lead to some of the largest deliveries that we have in a quarterly report for Tesla.
But you also have Elon being back baby, right? So that's three big shortterm momentum catalyst you have for Tesla right now. Rates the quarter and Elon back baby. That's huge. Now all of that short-term momentum does not obviously justify the stock trading for six or seven peg. The fundamentals are out of whack right now.
That's fine. We are going to have to move from that momentum into fundamentals. Now, what's going to drive those fundamentals? Robo taxi. That is the next leg. You have to believe that robo taxi is going to be your money maker uh over the next couple years at at least the next two to three years. you want to at least start seeing some revenues uh like revenues that you could actually meaningfully show up that could meaningfully show up in earnings.
That means you need to get rid of the safety driver. That's the challenge for Tesla right now. So again, short-term, we've broken down the short-term catalyst. Fantastic. The next huge physical catalyst because we're not at robots yet, right? We're not at the Optimus grime yet. I love that post, by the way.
Tesla, I think Tesla Optimus Twitter, they had a post this weekend. Uh, these are just like dad jokes almost at this point, but they're like, you know, Optimus, if this is as if Optimus is saying it. Uh, when I clean your house, I'll be Optimus Grime. And I'm like, oh, these are these are like the perfect like nerdy dad joke style jokes that I I actually love.
Like this. I'm I'm a dad of seven, okay? I can't help myself. And I like nerd out over technology anyway. I think this is so exciting. Uh but seriously, you need to go from so shortterm. All right, we got rates uh tax credit uh and Elon is back. You know, buying obviously is like fuel to the fire. It's like deliciousness, right?
Okay. Medium-term, we need an actual catalyst, right? Actual catalyst of uh robo taxi driver uh leaving the car. That's huge because Optimus is too far out to actually show up. So, this is where you get margin. This is where margins uh come in. A margins come in when that driver leaves the car and we don't have to pay all these people because basically what Tesla is doing right now is they're paying somebody to be an Uber driver inside of the car and the consumer is not paying for that driver, right?
They're paying a substantially discounted rate. So, that's where we sit with Tesla. Now, what does that mean price target-wise? Well, in my opinion, for Tesla, we have to hit we have to confirm 414. Okay, that's the key. And it's not a surprise that we're bleeding a little bit to 414 right now because the pre-market, you have to know this.
I I warned about this in the course member live stream literally 20 minutes ago. I go, "Look, when you're sitting at 428 totally disregarding a line or 430 in the pre-market, you've got to retest first. This is how it works." That's because look at volumes. I mean, volumes trading in the pre-market were between 30 to 60,000 shares.
Volumes right now per minute are literally 1 and a half million shares plus or minus, right? So, this is extremely normal. But this also leads to enthusiasm for the cues because it gets you set up for a nice head start on the day. Uh and uh and and this is exciting short term. You know, we're expecting really nothing bad until the first week of October.
Uh this is something also to keep in mind. You know, we've been talking about this as well. So, you know, broadly this is a good good moment in time. Now, October, Q4, is is this going to be the moment where all of a sudden we catalyst break into recession? I mean, there's nothing really indicating that we're going to like fall off a cliff right away.
We certainly have weakness. Uh, but um, but I think right now we're we're we're in a pretty decent spot. So, this is a very exciting moment for Tesla. And I do think there's going to be this this uh thesis by people that this is just the beginning of Elon buying. I actually don't think it is. I think Elon's probably more like a one and done on the spot.
Maybe once more. I I I don't really see this being a regular thing for him. Uh I think that was more of a signaling play than anything. And it's brilliant. Like I say, it's like it's like being the the stock salesman that Karp is at Palante or Elon. He was the OG carp. That's the way you have to think about it.
So, uh so anyway, yeah, this this is very very exciting. Uh and congrats to the Tesla community. Uh, also, wow, two two of our top uh 10 stocks to buy and we've only released five of them uh over the next 10 years are now up uh nine and 10% on the day. That's great. Uh anyway, all right, cool. Very well. So, uh that gives us a little bit on Tesl.
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