저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프-Lisa Cook 주택담보대출 사기 논란은 아직 결론이 나지 않았으며 실제 대출서류 확인이 관건이라고 설명. UBS의 93% 경기침체 확률은 과장이며 하드데이터 상 약한 연착륙 수준이라 주장. 9월 FOMC 25bp 인하는 거의 확실하다고 봄. 비트코인은 신고점 돌파 가능성을 제시하고, AI/엔비디아 칩 수요와 금리인하 수혜주를 언급. 테슬라는 추가 상승 여력이 있다고 봄. 다만 상당 부분 광고·구독 홍보 내용.
다듬은 글
cooked and Donald Trump's case against Lisa Cook might be cooked or is it? We'll talk about both sides as well as UBS's take that we are a 93% or in a 93% likelihood of going into recession. Is that truly what they believe? Spoiler, it's not. And Donald Trump probably isn't going to get anywhere with Lisa Cook and we're probably going to get 25 basis points next week.
Let's talk about it. Okay, first thing that I want to hit on is Lisa Cook and break this down for you. Quick note, some of you have been asking me for a really good bank though in the meantime. Metkaven.com or just go to meet Kevin.com/bank. Love this one. meet me.com/life for life insurance and meet Kevin.com/weeeble.
They're doing a 2% deposit bonus right now. Robin Hood's only doing 1% so you get, you know, an extra percent if you deposit transfer over there. Check out those sponsors, Bank, Life, and Weeble. Meet Kevin.com. All sponsors. Uh, okay. So, right now you've got this argument that Lisa Cook signed for two principal residences.
And what we did is we tried to dig into this a few weeks ago to catch you up. PTE says she applied for two homeowner occupied mortgages in 2021 within weeks of each other. Holt says, "We're doing our job. Nobody is above the law and therefore we're referring her for criminal prosecution. This is occupancy fraud and she should be replaced." And the reality is she did have a primary residence mortgage here from June 18th that indicated she would occupy the property as a principal residence.
But the big question, and this is the property we do not have the mortgage documents for, is why uh just 14 days later uh on she applied for a loan for a property in Georgia, a condo, and on July 21st, that mortgage ended up closing or that purchase ended up closing, which doesn't look good if both of those are primary residences.
Now, we don't have the mortgage documents for that July 21st closing, but what we do have is that the loan amount against the property looks like it was a 10% down loan, which you could do a 10% down loan on a personal residence that you're going to occupy, or on a second home. So, all we know is it was either a personal residence that she was going to occupy, which would be wrong, or it was a second home.
And that's where things left off the last time around. Though it certainly didn't look great because optically that second home in Georgia has now been turned into a rental. Though that is not against the law or any kind of loan rules. As long as you intend for something to be a secondary residence or primary residence for at least a year and then you rent it out, no harm, no foul.
That's totally fine. And it was at least a year before we started seeing a rental listing. So then we get to the latest revelation that wait a minute was Lisa Cook upfront in suggesting that this was actually a second home. And this is where there's a big debate. See, Bloomberg is reporting, thanks to what Reuters find found out that in May, Lisa Cook actually had a loan estimate issued by a credit union to Cook weeks before she ultimately purchased the home in Georgia.
And the document said that it would be a second home. Now, this is a loan estimate, so we have to understand a little bit of the timing of this. So, as usual, I broke down some of this extra information under the data section of the Meet Kevin app. So, if you haven't used that yet, consider using the Meet Kevin app.
I think there are also a couple coupons left. We have a quantity of coupons left for the U Meet Kevin membership. So, even though we had an expiration last night, I think there are two coupons left. If you want those, go to meet Kevin.com. But make sure you have this Meet Kevin app right here. Okay.
So, look at this. What you want to look at here is you want to go to the loan application process. So when you apply for a loan after 3 days of an application you get a loan estimate and then 3 days before closing you get what's called a closing disclosure. Now this matters now as somebody who used to be a mortgage loan originator an MLO in English a lender we used to do these documents.
So the loan estimate could just be one of many variations of loan estimates. However, the final mortgage documents are the final documents that matter. So, I could get an estimate for three different types of loans theoretically. So, while a loan estimate does suggest that Lisa Cook at one point told this credit union that this property was going to be a second home, it doesn't guarantee that the loan was actually closed as a second home.
And this is where both Bill PTE is sort of doing the classic PTE line and he goes now as far as saying that Dr. Cook represents herself as an extremely accomplished financial operator. If Cook solicited estimates as a vacation home and then entered into a mortgage agreement as a primary that is extremely concerning and evidence is further intent to defraud.
Now, that's because PE is now playing defense because these Reuters docs coming out are saying, you know, Nick T is even retweeting these. You know, Nick T is going, "Hey, here are the time frames for her to potentially get kicked out before this Fed meeting coming up on the 17th. Maybe it'll happen, maybe it won't." I'll give you my opinion on it in just a moment.
But PTE is also arguing or sorry Nick T rather is indicating hey this is a loan estimate uh that indicates that she disclosed that this was a vacation home of course after uh pullpace commentary which he's got a whole stream of people are now writing so if the actual loan documents differ from the estimate isn't that even more damning maybe.
And so this is kind of where you're getting like attack and counterattack. Pay goes, "She's a fraud. She has two primary residences." She's like, "No, bro. Here's an estimate saying it I disclosed there was a second hole." And he's like, "Oh, well then why did you close it as a primary resident? That's even more fine." And what this all really comes down to is the reality that there is an actual mortgage document somewhere.
We don't have access to it for some reason. The title reports don't give us access to that Georgia home mortgage document. I've got the address. I've looked it up. I can't get it. And Bill Pulp is not providing the actual mortgage document, which is weird because if he was so damn convinced that she actually appi applied for two primary residences and closed two primary residence loans, then why not just show the document?
But then the same would go for Lisa Cook. Hey, if you have your mortgage document, why not just show it? Now, it's possible here that maybe Lisa Cook didn't keep her mortgage documents, but Bill PE as the head of the FHFA should have the documents because it's the housing agency that would keep and store these loan documents.
And certainly, some title companies somewhere should have these documents, but ultimately the title company just verifies that the deed is present. The actual mortgage doesn't always get provided via title. So, that's where the FHFA should have it. So, Bill P should have it. And this then raises the question, is B bill Pate right?
And is Lisa Cook a fraud who got a loan estimate as a vacation rental? Then I guess her and her lender turned around and said, you know what, let's just defraud everyone and call it a primary because then then since it was disclosed, it would take both Lisa Cook and the lender agreeing that she was changing her mind, right?
It's a little bit of a higher standard. It could happen. Or maybe the lender made a mistake. That's possible, too. Again, either both of them are frauds, the lender and Lisa Cook, or a mistake was made, or this was a second home. And this all gets cleared up when we actually get the mortgage documents.
And so, until we actually get the mortgage documents, I personally think you've got a court here that's going to say, look, we have at least enough at this point to argue that Lisa Cook has a case. she she has is going to be able to get the opportunity to provide the actual mortgage documents in some form of discovery and that means she stays at least for the time being.
Now why does that matter? It matters because she's a voting member, right? These are your voting members and this is how it works. Each FOMC votes vote there are 12 voting members. Seven members of the board of governors, the president of the New York Fed and four of the remaining 11 reserve bank members.
Now, Cougler resigned in August to go back to teaching at Georgetown. Remember, Georgetown was the place where like Ivanka Trump went and Tiffany Trump went and Eric Trump went. Like, a lot of Trumps have gone there. And so, apparently Georgetown made Cougler, who was a voting member, a really good offer to go back to Georgetown.
And apparently now she's back at Georgetown. Yet, she has no classes scheduled at Georgetown. just happened to disappear as a voting number, leaving now people who are voting that Powell doesn't like, like Powell and Cook who are aligned that we should go slower on rate cuts. And he's not attacking people like Waller or Bowman because both of them want rate cuts and Waller and Bowman are basically both angling for the Fed chair jobs.
So they're really aligning with Trump like, "Yeah, let's let's cut a lot." You know, Waller's going out going we need to cut 150 basis points. The labor market is slowing too much, you know. So when you look at the list, they're basically just going down the list and it's sort of one of those like give me the man and I'll find the crime situations.
And that's where people are like Bill PT like you should have the records. Like stop giving us half information and then trying to argue that you know Lisa Cook is a crook when you have the record and you could just be like here's the mortgage document. Like you would just you you would win you like people wouldn't be calling for you to resign in that case.
Now, of course, Lisa Cook should also have the record, but remember, a lot of borrowers don't actually keep all these documents. They sign them, they close, they get their money, and then they throw them away. And I'm trying to defend Lisa Cook, just trying to provide that second perspective. Now, do understand as well that at the same time as this is happening, a lot of people recognize and side with Donald Trump because they want interest rates lower.
Car loans, uh, credit card loans, things are really expensive right now. And so, it makes sense why people want rates lower. And this is why a lot of people are concerned that, you know, hey, are we walking into a recession? And this is where UBS's recession forecast comes up. Now, quick note, also just to like close this topic, ProPublica is also doing investigations into people on Trump's team, and they're finding that uh you know, even though these aren't Fed rate cut voting members, people like the labor secretary apparently entered into two primary residents mortgages in quick succession.
Uh, of course they're responding saying that this is just a left-wing dark money hit piece that's trying to smear Donald Trump. Uh, and that Lisa Cook is corrupt. They're now calling her unlike Lisa Corrupt Cook who blatantly and intentionally committed mortgage fraud. Secretary Duffy, Administrator Zeldon, and Secretary Darmer are uh, you know, own multiple residences, but they've followed the law.
You can see this is just all like turning into political mudslinging. There are a lot of people who are now slinging around. In addition to this sort of political mudslinging, this idea about a 93% probability of going into a recession. And this is because UBS found that between May and July, the hard data in the economy indicated that we are going into a recession.
Now, there are a couple problems with this. Between May and July, we had the post tariff effects that led, you know, or or the result of a lot of people building up inventory and then less purchasing activity, which makes the economy look weaker. Now, a lot of that is leveling off and normalizing. And ow estimates for the third quarter starting here in September, we're actually showing 3.1% growth actually starting in August.
So, August, September, what we have so far. The data suggests we're actually doing really well on GDP. Now, it's possible that like half of this is being made up by artificial intelligence, which obviously we've got to really evaluate like, hey, how much of AI is really like a bubble? You know, AI, you have to remember, is really pattern recognition.
And I'm it's so incredible because, you know, we're running Blackwell chips now for House Hack because we've got, you know, real estate AI that we're building. And and what we're finding is it's a game of data. And so, you know, if we have a data set of 50,000, I'm looking at this going, I want to get this data set to 300,000 or 500,000.
You know, I want to 10x this data set because MLS ultimately are a game of pattern recognition. The more you deviate from the actual pattern that you showed the AI and trained it on, the more you get hallucinations. So, how do you reduce hallucinations? You train on more pattern sets. It's really simple.
Which then actually makes you scratch your head and go, "Wait a minute. If this is just like computers recognizing patterns, is it really artificial intelligence at all? Or is it just plagiarizing patterns?" Which is exactly what got an OpenAI researcher killed. And if you haven't yet seen my video yet on the Sam Oldman and Tucker Carlson disaster, highly encourage you watch that.
The biggest takeaway out of that video, by the way, to me is not that Sam Oldman is maybe, don't sue me or kill me, bro, a murderer. It's that uh MLS are really just pattern recognizers, right? Anyway, like, so we're it's incredible. we're running like my AI team is telling me that you know we're we have now like 4x the speed of our compute and we're using 20 uh like 20% of the power that we were using before by upgrading to these latest Blackwell chips and it's insane.
Uh I think I got that right. Double check my memory on that but uh it's insane like these these Nvidia chips are really good. You know, I joke that Nvidia chips are like what is in the bag and Super Microcomputer, a company that makes the server racks, they make the bag that people then can hold. And so like, you know, I I always worry that like companies like, you know, Cororeweave or even INE, which I'm bullish on short term, we're just building up like these massive bags and eventually these chips will be worth less.
But I don't know, man. right now this is a debtfueled bubble and these chips are actually really good. So it's kind of like ah like all right so like maybe it's a bubble getting extended by debt but it's getting extended by debt and it fueling into GDP and so for right now like this is fine and so it's no surprise that when you actually look at what UBS tells us they actually base their recession probability at just 41%.
now. Well, that is like double. Actually, I think they're 50/50. That was the credit market. Credit markets uh indicate a 41% chance. They're at about a 50/50 chance of a recession. Uh and and so that's because they're looking at that hard data and saying, "Okay, but that was summer data, post liberation tariff, uh liberation date data, and you know, they're looking at the inverted yield curve, which yes, is one of the most uh telltale signs of a recession, but really only once you skyrocket past one." So I think we're what we're really seeing is we're kind of on in an economy of like borrowed time is the way I like to look at it, which is fine because you can make plenty of money in this.
I mean look at for example Bitcoin. Bitcoin regularly has these downtrend consolidations and then it always breaks out to new highs after that. We are literally breaking out right now and and we could see 130 to 150 5,000 Bitcoin very very soon. Uh and like I don't think this debt fueled bubble is really going to slow down anytime soon.
Now there there are other plays that make a lot of money in this like either slowdown or recessionary direction and uh of the top 10 stocks to buy that I'm bringing to course members in the alpha report which you get with the meet Kevin membership uh right now three of them and probably that's going to be all of them but three of them are like a huge beneficiaries if rates either slow down like slowly come down or massively get cut like these companies win big and so far they've already been doing really well.
Like one of them was up, you know, 20% uh Thursday or Friday. The other one was up like 4 to 12% on Friday. Can't remember exactly, but these were doing really well. I do caution against Open Door. I think Open Doors, you know, peaked a little bit now that we've got the CEO placed and now shop the Shopify exec is going to have to basically prove that he can turn around this Open Door model.
Maybe if you want, leave me a comment. I'll make a whole breakdown as to like what Open Door should do. As somebody with real estate and financial background, I feel like it could give some good insight here, but I don't know if anybody cares, but there's a lot that Open Door could do. But really, when you look at this 93% chance of recession, I think it's a really good click- baity headline, but the reality is we we are, yes, on borrowed time, but we're not yet like so high in shock territory that we really need to be nervous.
Yes, we're in shock territory. shock territory starts at 50, but the soft landing of this of the mid90s got us to 60 and we never had a recession. So, we're just in like the early innings. Uh, and this could this could keep going for a while. This sort of like Nike swoosh recovery. It's it's it's too it is too early to call an end.
The end will come, but not yet. Uh, so this has been coming down. It's been coming down because we now anticipate a 100% chance of a 25 BP cut. only a 4% chance of a 100 basis or 50 basis point cut on September 17th. Obviously, I'll be covering that in detail. Uh and uh a lot of this is because, you know, markets, bond markets are like, "All right, cool.
Yeah, we're going to get a supportive Fed now." Now, fortune uh has been talking about mounting warning signs. However, there are a lot of metrics that turn negative. This is per UBS that indicates we are seeing softness that is a mile wide but an inch deep. So basically nothing is showing a rapid unraveling.
It's rather a soggy soft weak but not collapsing environment that we're seeing. Fine. And that's why they they you know are only indicating there it is an aggregate recession probability of 52%. And that's for July. That's probably down now. Now Jamie Diamond is also talking about the potential for a recession.
But he also says and admits like hey this is either a recession or a slowdown. We're we're not entirely sure. We're just going to kind of like assume that uh we're going to put the bank in the best position we possibly can and just keep trucking along, which I feel like is what everybody should be doing.
I'm going to look really quick. Yeah, it looks like we got two uh me Kevin membership coupons left. I I I tried to time that where they would align with the expiration 1159. I'll probably just expire it. But anyway, uh, shout out to those of you who joined. Jo, John, Elias, Ematus, Juan, Sergio, Brandon, Hud, Eddie, Joey, Tom, Derek, Michael, Robert, Natalia, that aligns with roughly one and 10.
Shout out to the ladies out there. Uh but yeah, broadly I don't think that I mean this week just sort of in an economic recap this week we did get low PPI but again that was probably because of a slowdown in in you know wholesale trade services which makes sense. Uh and then we did get CPI that was basically a long expectations and a slight rise in claims but none of this is like you know indicative of like falling off a cliff.
In fact, in my alpha report, I said that I like the data we got this week is modestly bullish on the cues. It's not like euphorically bullish, but modestly bullish. And I mean, look at what we did this week. We modestly rose day after day after day after day. Like, if you zoom out and average out what we saw this week, it was basically straight up.
So, modestly bullish wins again. And I think this continues. Uh I'm also very like excited to see what's happening at Tesla. I think a lot of this is because the comp plan is getting set up for Elon and you know robo taxi slowly expanding. Uh you know I think we're getting to these levels where like hey it's it makes sense to maybe you know especially once we get to 414 start thinking about tightening some limits because valuations are high but uh you know I always like trailing stop limits because they protect you in the event you do roll into a recession which you know we'd have to get some crazy data.
Uh but don't make them too tight to where you're getting stopped out on normal fluctuations. But I think he's still got another 20 bucks to go here before you got to worry about a line. And beyond that, like we know what we're going to get to the Fed meeting. At the Fed meeting, if you think about it, we're going to get 25.
Big deal. Uh and then on top of that, I mean, we'll be breaking down all the catalysts and and you know, my take on how to play them for trades. Obviously, I can't guarantee that in the Meet Kevin membership. Um but but I can't guarantee the result, but I I think we do a really good job. I think overall like our win rate is is is very high.
Uh and so I I hope you can make lots of money. But uh you know we are going to get retail sales this week. We'll get import export prices. So we'll be setting up strategies for for trading around this in the meet Kevin membership. Remember you buy you get lifetime access. Uh we've got uh initial claims.
Uh they're expected to come down from 263 to 240 which would be good because we did get uh we did get a pop in in uh initial claims this week. Uh and you know, you don't really want to see that continue because it is recessionary. So then you've got uh although it's late recessionary, right? Like once claims really pop off, you're deep in the recession.
S&P S&P PMI is on the 23rd. Big deal. We'll get capital goods. We'll get PCES Jolts on the 30th. Big deal. Probably get PCE on the 26th. Yep. There's PC on the 26th. big deal, honestly. Like, none of that's going to matter. Uh, and then we've got Halloween. It's coming fast here. Uh, I think the only way you're going to get TLT over 100 at this point, because it'll probably stabilize around 90 where it is now.
I think the only way you end up getting TLT over 100 is if you get the jobs report at the beginning of October just crashing, like going negative. Then we'll have TLT over 100 and and then then you know well we'll talk about Halloween at that point what we're gonna dress up as. But uh ADP unemployment chains we don't have a survey yet that comes out on October 1st.
Man that's crazy. It's almost October. I feel like this year is just like evaporated on me frankly. Uh then uh you've got payrolls. Yeah. No estimate yet on October 3rd. And uh I mean those are going to be the clutch ones. you don't actually have the Fed. Uh, and then you've got CPI on the 15th. You don't have the Fed in October.
So, it's all going to be like that first and third for jobs. Uh, so, you know, that's that's what we're going to be looking at uh in, you know, post Fed here. And again, like I said, between now and and the beginning of October, the 1st and the 3rd, I don't see really big negative catalysts. It's not like we've got bigger earnings to worry about.
It's not like we've got, you know, a big jobs report to worry about. We already got all that bad news. So, it's chill. And usually when it's chill, we just optimistically move up. And I think that's what you're seeing with with Bitcoin. By the way, all of these lines are drawn on on Weeble. And that's why I do think it's cool that they're doing this 2% deposit bonus right now.
Remember to sign up at meetke.com/weble. Get your life insurance in as little as 5 minutes at meetke.com/life. And then use that banking uh try check them out. Check out that banking provider. Meet Kevin.combank. Uh and if you want $30, like they give you $30 off on the Metagasses uh and they give me $30, too.
Meet Kevin.com/ Meta. And uh these are all paid partnerships obviously. But uh uh finally, like I got like this is not like anything special like Meta didn't reach out. This is just sort of the generic one that pops up. But I have to say, I've got I've got two functioning Meta glasses right now. I love these with my kids.
Absolutely freaking love these. In fact, have you seen the latest uh Tesla uh light sync? Dude, the Tesla light sync is so cool in the car. Uh I'm so excited about this. I'm going to share this uh on screen. I'll airdrop this. But uh basically the the light sync is you could play music and it'll take the album art and it'll play that uh and sync it with the sort of light strip in the Cybert truck or you know whatever other Tesla you might have uh that has this.
And you know I what I like to do is I put the glasses on and then I document people's reactions to what's going on with the glasses. And I think it's great. So, I'll show you uh Lauren's reaction here is I uh it she played her own Taylor Swift song because you know Swifties obviously over here and um you'll get to uh see this again filmed with the glasses which I think is really fun. Rainbow colored album art. So, I played him this so cool. Oh, that's so coo.
Comments 0