Explained: Who Is Peter Lynch And What Is The Peter Lynch Strategy? (Preston Pysh)

요약 보기

결론: 피터 린치 전략은 일상에서 쓰는 제품·서비스로 종목 아이디어를 얻되, 반드시 가격 대비 수익률(머니머신 비유)을 따져야 한다는 내용이다. 피터 린치는 개인 투자자가 기관보다 일상 소비 경험으로 종목을 먼저 발견할 수 있다고 주장한다. 예: 스타벅스 줄이 길면 투자 기회의 힌트가 될 수 있다. 워런 버핏과 찰리 멍거도 비슷한 방식을 쓴다. 찰리 멍거는 가족 모두 아이폰을 쓰므로 애플을 신뢰한다고 언급했다. 좋아하는 회사에 투자하면 투자 흥미가 오래 유지되어 투자 경력에 도움이 된다는 점도 강조한다. 다만 훌륭한 회사라도 가격이 적절하지 않으면 좋은 투자가 아니다. 진행자는 '머니머신' 비유로 가격의 중요성을 설명한다. 머니머신 비유: 연 100 수익을 내는 기계를 1,000만에 사면 수익률은 1%다. 같은 돈을 3%로 굴리면 연 30만의 수익이 가능하다. 따라서 이 거래는 나쁜 거래다. 핵심 질문은 두 가지다: 얼마에 살 수 있는가, 그리고 매년 얼마를 벌어주는가. 이를 통해 수익률을 계산하고 다른 기회와 비교해야 한다. 진행자는 애플이 과거 가치 있었다고 언급했다(약 1.5년 전 Forbes 기고, 당시 가치 저평가로 판단). 현재 애플 매수 추천은 아니며 과거 판단이라고 명시했다. 진행자는 가격 중심의 가치투자 관점을 공유하며 신규 투자자에게 이 설명을 다시 들어볼 것을 권한다. 종목 방향 예측이나 매수·매도 권고는 없다. 가격 판단 기준만 제시되었다. 결론적으로 린치식 접근법은 '좋은 회사'보다 '적정 가격의 좋은 회사'를 찾는 데 초점이 있다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. welcome to another episode of millennial investing explained here's today's question now that we've talked about a couple strategies i want to talk about how you can actually find some individual stock picks and i want to talk about peter lynch's strategy and peter lynch is a very successful investor he was one of the most successful mutual fund managers of all time he managed the magellan fund at fidelity and basically in his book one up on wall street he talks about how individual investors like you and me the listeners in preston actually have an advantage over money managers and hedge funds because we're able to make investment decisions based on products and services that we use much quicker than a hedge fund or a much larger institution could for example if you went into starbucks and you saw that every day you went into starbucks there was a line out the door that might give you a hint that starbucks might be a good opportunity for an investment of course you need to dive into the financials more and do more research than just that but just by seeing that you're able to get an idea that starbucks might be a good investment opportunity and some of the best investors in the whole world warren buffett and charlie munger use this same type of strategy charlie even said at this year's berkshire hathaway meeting that everybody in his house everyone in his family uses iphones and out of everything that they own the last thing that they would want to give up is that iphone and and that more or less is why charlie believes in apple so much and to take it a step further not only can this idea help you find good opportunities but it can also help you stay interested in investing if you're investing in companies you don't care about you might lose interest in investing but if you're investing in companies that you use every day and now you can think hey i actually own part of this company that makes this product that might help you keep interested in investing much longer which would be beneficial for your investing career well some of your points there you're talking about you can have a fantastic business but if it's not at the if you can't buy it at the right price maybe it's not a good investment so let me just highlight this with the best example i can give you i'm gonna sell you a money machine truly a money machine like this thing will print money and whatever it prints out you get to keep i'm going to sell this to you and so what's what's the first thing you're going to ask me whenever i say i want to sell you my money machine and let's just assume that it's all legal like the money that it makes you get to keep it's no problem right i'm gonna sell you the money machine so what's your first question you asked me how much does it cost bingo how much do i have to pay you to purchase this money machine and so the money machine cost 10 million dollars so now what's your next question you ask me how much money is it going to give me how much money is this thing going to print per year it's going to print 100 a year i'm selling it to you like what could possibly go wrong with buying a money machine right it's literally a money machine and i'm selling to you for 10 million bucks it's a great deal right no it's a terrible deal this is this is the epitome of a terrible terrible deal because what else could you do with 10 million dollars in a year well you could do a whole lot if you go out and you even get a three percent return on 10 million bucks you're making 300 000 a year right so i use that as an example because there's companies out there there's stocks out there there's all sorts of things out there that in a person's mind psychologically it's a money machine it's like apple like you just hear the word apple you're like everybody has an iphone everyone has an apple computer on the entire planet i need to own apple right but they're they're not asking themselves the two basic questions of well how much is the apple money machine oh it's it's this much okay well now that i know how much you're willing to sell me the apple money machine how much does the apple money machine make each year and then you answer that question and then you can look at something and come up with an idea of whether that's a good deal or not and what are you doing whenever you you come up with the yield right you're looking at how much what's my profit margin each year for owning this you're comparing it to your other opportunities you're looking out there and you're saying well that's a great company but it's given me two percent and i could go over there and buy this really super boring box company that i am calculating a value of 20 for i'm gonna take the the boring box company all day long because of the price right because the price is incredible in fact it no one's trying to compete with the box company anymore everyone's trying to compete with apple though so like there's all sorts of things and i'm not saying apple's a bad pick in fact i actually wrote a forbes article i don't know it's probably a year and a half old but at that time it was a great value it was i was calculating it to be a great value so it really depends but you have to look at it from that lens you have to ask yourself those questions what can i buy for what's it going to yield just like simple things but people completely look past that i really like that example of the money machine preston being a value investor myself i certainly know how important price is and i put a lot of emphasis on it myself but i had never heard an example like that or had someone explain it to me like that i certainly wish i had that when i was just starting out because it just makes it so clear it makes a real world example so simple and easy to follow so if you're a millennial investor or if you're a new investor i really recommend that you go back and listen to that again at least once if not twice and make sure that you really understand how price makes such a big impact on your investment returns that's all for this episode of millennial investing explained be sure to follow me on instagram twitter and facebook or subscribe to our youtube channel to get even more free content