저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
Grantham은 자본지출 억제와 독점 심화로 인한 구조적 문제를 지적하며 현재가 거대 버블 국면이라고 본다. 주식시장 및 기업 행태: 주주들이 자사주 매입을 요구해 자본지출(capex)이 20년간 꾸준히 줄었고, 기업 집중도(독점력)는 같은 기간 상승했다. 과거에는 경쟁사들이 동시에 공장을 짓다 가격이 폭락하는 사이클이 있었으나 지금은 그렇지 않다. 금융기관 행태: 월가는 상승장에서 상품을 쏟아내고 하락장에서는 빠르게 대응하며, 약세 전망을 내는 것을 꺼린다. 현재 모건스탠리 인사의 약세 발언이 이례적이라고 평가했다. 거시 경제 리스크: 미국은 기대수명이 선진국 중 하락하고 있고, 노동 생산성 대비 임금 상승이 부진하다. 일반적 경기침체에 구조적 요인이 겹쳐 침체가 길고 깊어질 가능성을 언급했으나 확실하지는 않다고 했다. 노동: 미국은 실업률 외에도 이직률이 높고, 프랑스·영국·일본 대비 시간당 임금 상승이 낮다. 광고: 중간에 크라우드펀딩 스타트업(Atacama) 투자 광고가 삽입되어 있으며, 진행자는 본인이 투자했다고 밝혔다. 출연자 전망: 전체적으로 강세장은 버블이며 하락 위험이 크다는 약세 관점이다. 구체적 종목 가격 목표는 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
foreign ly now for 20 years is a style of capitalism where the stockholders are leaning on the corporations to take it easy on capex why I mean basically it generates an economy of mild shortage all the time you want to make money that is the world to live in so mile shortage all the time pressure on the workers in the good old days they always build an extra plant it was the bane of of stock analysts like me in the 60s and 70s whenever things started to improve eight paper companies would all start to build a giant plant at the same time and they would crash the prices what's great for jobs great for GDP growth pretty good for productivity terrible for stockholders and now we don't the capex has dropped as a fraction of the total pretty steadily for 20 years the degree of concentration or Monopoly if you prefer has risen pretty steadily for 20 years and it's all legal because it's the stockholders breathing down your neck saying dudes buy your stock back don't build a risky new plant it might work well it might be mistimed in any case it's risky better to wait and see which of the hundreds of VC firms work out well and then grab one or two of the best ones it's a capital transaction doesn't go into the income statement foreign flight path to long-term profit is to be resolutely bullish and pump out as many new instruments and as many new funds and products as you can on the way up and then be a little quicker and Slicker on the way down uh regroup as quickly as you can try and make a bit of money on the downside if you're smart enough and then make a long drawn out Fortune being bullish again there's no Edge in being bearish for them and so they never are you tell me why the Morgan Stanley guy today is so bearish I don't know it he hasn't read the secret little book of advice that comes with those jobs which says never be bearish this is about as bearish as any guy in a firm like that has ever been in my career the only other example was was UBS Brinson after they'd done a deal with Gary Brinson who was a suitable value-oriented investor going into the 2000 event and they pumped out rather cautious advice like we did at the time but they were the eight thousand pound gorilla and fortunately they changed their battle plan to get religion and go into the growth stocks just before the end somewhat leaving the field to us there it wasn't that there weren't a lot of other value managers around they just weren't standing on the table shouting like we were hey everyone is cliffink here are you looking for an investment opportunity in a two trillion dollar market look no further than Atacama the cyber security industry's latest Game Changer Atacama has opened its doors to U.S accredited in international investors alike already attracting over 5 000 investors in 6.5 million dollars in capital atacama's recurring Revenue model saw 10x Revenue expansion in 2022 alone they have patented technology and large contracts secured including one with the U.S Department of Defense this is a limited time opportunity to get in on the ground floor of a rapidly growing cyber security startup to learn more simply visit invest.auticama.com WSB that is invest.auticama ATA k a m a.com slash WSB full disclosure I have personally invested in atacama's equity crowdfunding round at a 29 million dollar valuation please keep in mind that investments in early stage companies do contain risk as with any investment crowdfunding Investments do offer attractive potential upside but they cannot offer any guarantees of a future return so we're at the level of new cross gate in the U.S and and Sweden is 84.
we've managed to open up an eight-year Gap in life expectancy as if we were on the cusp of the developing country and we've gone backwards for the last seven years which is unique in the developed world and the only one who comes close is the UK which is flat but for that time period so we have lots of things to worry about and they they all seem to be coming somewhat to fruition now in time to overlap with what would be a fairly normal traditional recession caused by the usual reasons and will these long term is now factors will they make it longer and worse I think it's a possibility which I've tried to write about I don't think it's certain I think things this complex can never be said but I think it's quite likely that we will have unexpected negative consequences for the next few years the way we State the unemployment rate we're always very proud then we have more people not working than Europe does they seem to have found a new willingness to resign if the job is crummy and they're not paid enough and they and they have been treated diabolically badly since about 1975.
if you look at the increase for an hour worked it's not 10 or 15 percent adjusted for inflation in 45 years and in France it's up 150 percent and if you read business week as I like to say it would have appeared over that 45 years that we had done nothing but kick French bottoms because of eurosclerosis French incompetence bureaucrats etc etc they take too much time off they have long holidays but when they work they're very productive and they get paid a ton more money than they used to and we do not even the lowly Brits are up 60 the Japanese are up over 100. how is it that our average hour worked in manufacturing has done so badly
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