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개별 투자자가 피터 린치의 'One up on Wall Street'를 바탕으로 시장을 이길 수 있다는 결론을 소개하는 책 리뷰 영상. 책의 배경: 린치는 마젤란 펀드를 운용해 20년간 연 29.2% 수익률을 기록한 인물이다. 투자 능력은 타고나는 것이 아니며 '전문가'라는 칭호가 성과를 보장하지 않는다고 강조한다. 주식 vs 채권: 1927년 이후 미국 주식은 채권을 크게 앞질러 왔다. 주식은 기업 성장에 따른 상승 여지가 있지만 채권은 현금흐름이 고정되어 상승 여지가 제한적이다. 투자 전 기본 점검: 주택 보유가 안전한 자산 형성 수단이며, 급한 부채 상환이 주식 투자보다 우선되어야 한다. 개별 종목 선택 시에는 인내심과 감정적 거리두기 같은 자질을 스스로 점검해야 한다. 시장 예측의 한계: 주가와 경제의 단기 움직임을 일관되게 예측하는 것은 불가능하며, 이를 주장하는 사람은 사이비이거나 사기꾼에 가깝다. 대신 수익성 있으면서 과대평가되지 않은 기업에 집중하라고 조언한다. 개인의 우위: 소비자로서 일상에서 제품 품질이나 서비스 유행을 먼저 포착할 수 있고, 이는 기관이 실적 발표 전에 놓칠 수 있는 정보다. 다만 팁만으로 매수하는 것은 기본적 분석 없이 포커를 치는 것과 같다. 종목 선정 기준: 지루하고 재미없는 이름과 사업일수록 유리하며(시장의 주목을 덜 받음), 핫한 주식은 경쟁과 변동성이 커 위험하다. 주식은 복권이 아니라 실제 이익을 내는 사업의 지분이므로, '2분 드릴'(성장 동력 명확화), 매출 비중, PER(성장률 대비 적정성), 현금 포지션과 부채, 기관 보유 비율을 점검해야 한다. 운용 원칙: 자신의 성과가 S&P500에 못 미치면 인덱스 펀드로 전환하라고 조언한다. 10~20% 조정은 매수 기회가 될 수 있지만 주가는 예상보다 훨씬 더 떨어질 수 있어 주의가 필요하다. 옵션, 선물, 공매도는 개인에게 이득보다 해가 크다고 본다. 시장의 비합리성: 케네디 암살 시 시장은 3%만 하락 후 3일 내 회복했다. 단기적으로 시장은 무작위적이며 때로 비합리적이다. 린치는 개인이 '10배 수익 종목(10 bagger)'을 찾을 수 있다고 보며, 기관이 제약 때문에 못 하는 소형주 투자가 개인의 장점이라고 말한다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없고 일반 투자 원칙만 다룸.
다듬은 글
is it really possible for individual investors to make stock picks that beat the market what advantages over Wall Street do individual investors even have well in legendary investor Peter Lynch's book one up on Wall Street I found the answers to these questions and more welcome back to the investors podcast YouTube series where we review the greatest books for business and life that have shaped our learning over the years hi I'm Sean and this channel is all about the principles of investing from stock tips to iconic billionaires the best strategies and our favorite tools the investors podcast has everything you need to know so let's get started Peter Lynch was born in 1944 and he's most famous for managing the Magellan fun which generated a stunning 29.2 percent annual return over a 20-year period that was more than enough to secure his place in the Wall Street Hall of Fame and he not only considerably beat the Market's performance but he did so with the remarkable consistency so it's safe to say he knows a thing or two about investing which is why I was so excited to read this book one up on Wall Street was actually one of the very first books I read when I started investing Lynch's writing style is informative and he doesn't make stock picking more complicated than it needs to be that said this book probably doesn't provide enough detail for brand new investors to run out and begin buying socks after reading it the first time though it's an excellent starting place and will provide learnings for investors of all backgrounds contrary to popular myth nobody is born with a knack for Stock Investing it's not something that's in our genes and many people distrust the market and Lynch's family was actually no exception however after a summer job caddying at a golf course as a kid Lynch would frequently hear golfers discussing the opportunities to make money in the stock market and his interest was peaked soon enough he had enough money saved to buy his first stock and after quickly and luckily making a profit he realized this was a game he wanted to master Lynch explains that there's a lot of gatekeeping around the world of investing but so-called professional investors but in reality such a term is an oxymoron anyone can be an investor and research has frequently shown that just because you're a quote-unquote professional doesn't mean you're destined to perform better than everyone else plenty of people over the years have achieved spectacular returns without even a business degree for most investors there's a legitimate question as to how they should balance owning stocks with buying bonds this debate has raged for years and it really boils down to your personal financial goals and strategy as Lynch points out though history has been pretty unequivocal stocks have outperformed bonds by a huge margin since 1927.
despite Market crashes recessions depressions Wars and everything else in between the U.S stock market has proven remarkably resilient in Stock Investing you have an ownership share which in a sense makes you partnered with that company as their business grows so does the value of your investment but with bonds there's not the same upside your cash flow payments are fixed and the price of a bond is typically relatively stable Lynch suggests before even exploring stocks and bonds many investors should first consider whether they own a house this has proven to be a far safer method of wealth building with decent profits in his opinion and the risk of total loss is essentially zero Pro building on this all investors must ask themselves just how much they can afford to invest participating in the stock market should probably not come before paying off urgent debts or financing other important personal affairs and lastly for those wishing to pick stocks rather than just investing through passive index funds these investors must look in the mirror honestly and ask themselves whether they have the persistence patience and Detachment among other necessary traits to effectively invest in stocks assuming you're still interested in investing which hopefully you are there are a few other things to know if it were possible to make money in the stock market by predicting the future well we all would have already lost money to those who are able to do so the stock market and the general economy do move hand in hand sometimes but it's not possible to make accurate predictions consistently given the huge complexities underlying these two areas anyone who claims to be able to make these predictions is at best engaging in pseudoscience and is at worst a charlatan Lynch says that instead of trying to predict the market an average investor should focus only on profitable companies that aren't overpriced and in doing so we may actually find that we have a number of advantages over the pros we are consumers participating in the real economy so as we go about our daily lives we're sure to encounter Trends bode well for our investing prospects perhaps we find a new product of superior quality while shopping or maybe we notice that our friends are all purchasing a new popular service or subscription paying attention to these sorts of things can tip us off that a company is likely to soon report excellent earnings which most of Wall Street may not be aware of until the actual quarterly earnings reports come out in this sense just by paying attention to the companies you engage with in your personal life you may uncover Trends still unknown to those sitting in an office all day reading financial statements many average investors May jump the gun here lunch cautions as just because you get a tip doesn't necessarily mean the stock is actually a good buy buying stocks without doing any fundamental research is like playing poker without even looking at the cards that being said it always looks wise to invest in big companies like Coca-Cola or apple to get maximum profits however it's not for people looking to double or triple their stock prices in a short period of time while big companies are great it's best to take a look at small companies if you want to try to make more money Lynch writes that when looking for perfect stocks there are a few more things to consider firstly notice the name is it dull and boring like say Pep Boys and secondly does it do something equally boring the more boring the better and yes it sounds ridiculous but you have an edge if you buy socks in such companies because they go up even before anyone notices thirdly if the company produces something that's not all that interesting it's a big plus again stock you need to avoid then it's the hot stocks that everyone's talking about for instance when the internet bubble boomed in the late 1990s just about everybody invested in these businesses but many of them were doomed for failure from beginning and people lost huge amounts of money the problem with hot stocks is that they have too many competitors too soon and they go out of business even sooner additionally their prices May decline rapidly without giving you a chance to sell just look at how volatile GameStop and Tesla are the best way to know whether to buy a company since lunch is to evaluate its earnings he reminds us that stocks are not lottery tickets but rather ownership shares and real businesses that produce earnings which is just a fancy word for profits if a company's earnings drop off or even just don't match investors expectations for growth well the stock is going to drop he's just further that for our stock picks we need to have clear reasons for purchasing which he calls the two minute drill basically what new Factor are going to drive earnings are they launching a new product you expect to be successful in doing our analysis we ought to keep in mind how impactful our two minute drill factors can actually be the sales percentage should tell us this though if a product only accounts for two percent of the company's total revenue for example then even a 10 increase in sales for this product is not likely to make a meaningful difference to the Stock's total earnings along with this we should also review the price to earnings ratio which is the price per share divided by the earnings per share you'll want to check out that this value doesn't vary significantly from its industry peers for this metric the ratio should be proportional to the company's expected growth rate and higher growth rates will Merit a higher price to earnings ratio thirdly Lynch suggests that investors review a company's cash position in other words how much cash do they have on their balance sheet with respect to their debt payments lastly check the institutional ownership percentage the higher this value is the more well known it is to Wall Street which means the chances of extreme profits for you are probably reduced after some time dabbling with picking stocks Lynch highlights that you should compare your performance against the s p 500s over the same period And if you're underperforming then you should just use index funds you'll earn average returns without all of the headaches in terms of managing your portfolio well you'll never find the perfect time to buy or sell a stock but there are some times that are better than others for example from October to December some investors may sell their stocks tactically to secure losses which they hope to use to offset other tax burdens this can create buying opportunities for you and periodically the stock market will have 10 to 20 percent Corrections so these also make for great opportunities to buy more shares of stock don't ever delude yourself into thinking though that stocks can't possibly go lower oftentimes stocks will go down and up far more than what most believe is possible even professionals fall prey to room rumors and just because they say stocks can't go lower the truth is that they surely can this is why Stock Investing is dangerous and you should proceed with caution additionally Lynch leaves us with his thoughts that individual investors shouldn't waste time dabbling with options futures or short positions these are essentially just ways to make additional side bets that will probably serve as a distraction this doesn't mean that they're useless but for most of us the added benefits don't outweigh the cons to wrap things up Lynch discusses how the market can appear to have a mind of its own for instance when most investors expected stocks to decline dramatically after President Kennedy was shot markets only dipped by three percent and astonishingly went up and also recovered within just three days this incident along with various other instances over time is proof that the market can go in the opposite direction no matter what the fundamentals say in the short term markets are largely random and can at times be seemingly irrational but with the right Focus Peter Lynch tells us that individual investors can earn what he calls a 10 bagger which is a 10 times return on your money and even better we may have advantages to tap into that investment firm simply can't because they're restricted in the types and sizes of companies they can invest in on top of the fact that we may be tipped off on consumption Trends well before they make their way to investor deaths on Wall Street that's it for this week guys I hope you enjoyed this video and I'd really encourage you to check out the book for yourself if you do we have special links below to purchase a physical copy or you can use our audible link to listen to it please also like subscribe and share your comments below if you liked it we love hearing your thoughts so tell us what are your biggest takeaways from this book do you believe that it's possible to have an investing advantage over the pros and which books should we cover next just a reminder nothing in this video is financial advice and I'd encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decisions for more Peter Lynch listen to our we study billionaires podcast on them and don't miss our mini-series on The Ultimate Guide to Investing in stocks where we teach you more about the fundamentals of investing optimizing your returns planning for retirement and so much more see y'all next time getting started is often the hardest part in investing as stocks May invoke flashy Wall Street depictions that seem daunting however with this series you'll learn what's necessary to not just beat the pros but how to build a better financial future
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