Explained: How To Access The Strategy Used By Billionaire Ray Dalio?

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RPAR 리스크패리티 ETF와 Bridgewater 올웨더 전략을 소개하며, 자산배분 철학과 ETF 구조의 장점을 설명한 인터뷰다. 올웨더 전략의 기원: Tony Robbins 책 속 Dalio 인터뷰의 자산배분(장기채 40%, 중기채 15%, 주식 30%, 원자재 7.5%, 금 7.5%)은 Dalio 본인 발언이 아닐 수 있다고 언급. 전략 목표: 전 세계 4가지 경제 계절에 생존하도록 설계, 연 변동성 약 10%로 60/40 포트폴리오 수준, 주식 경쟁 수준의 수익 목표. 과거 올웨더 평균 수익률은 약 8%로 언급. 비용 구조: RPAR 운용보수(expense ratio) 0.50%는 하위 ETF 비용을 포함한 총 순비용이며, 저비용 ETF(Vanguard 등)를 활용하고 적합한 저비용 상품이 없으면 개별 증권을 직접 매수. ETF 구조의 장점: 세금 효율성(수익 과세 이연), 약 20% 레버리지를 거의 무비용으로 구현, 개인 투자자의 감정적 매매(고점 매수·저점 매도) 방지. 리밸런싱 효과: 정기 리밸런싱 시 포트폴리오 수익률이 구성 자산 평균 수익률보다 연 약 1%p 높았다고 설명. 저상관 자산 조합일수록 효과가 큼. 예외적 조정: 2020년 3월 디플레이션 우려 시 TIPS 비중 축소, 국채·금 비중 확대 등 극단 상황에서 재조정. 결론: 저점 매수·고점 매도의 원칙을 실행하기 쉽게 만드는 구조가 핵심이며, 특정 종목 예측이 아닌 평균회귀(mean reversion)에 베팅하는 전략이라는 점을 강조.

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01. in this video you'll be learning about this topic tony robbins wrote this book money master the game and the best part of that book at least if you ask me was his interview with ray dalio and robin's asked value there in the book if you could leave a portfolio for your kids that could not be changed what would the asset allocation be and dalio allegedly said something like 40 long-term bonds 15 percent medium-term bonds 30 percent in equities and seven and a half percent in commodities and seven half percent in gold is that similar to what you guys are doing in your atf and are those percentages even correct it's similar frankly i i saw that i was still at bridgewater when that came out and i'm not exactly sure where tony got his allocation from i think there was some interpretation that went into that it wasn't literally from rey's lips but i'm not 100 sure about that but there's you know there's obviously similarities to what we're doing and again the idea is this was the genesis of all weather for ray which was to create a strategy that would last for generations in his family and would not require active management so it was the ultimate investment strategy and that framework even though we implemented differently that framework is really the governing framework on how we think about asset allocation as well and then that informs how we do our risk parity portfolio so i'm glad you brought up the all-weather portfolio so for those who don't know all weather is a fund at bridgewater associates that is supposed to survive through the four economic seasons we talked about and for what i've gathered it's averaged the rate of return around eight percent with maybe a similar level of volatility is that sort of the expectation with this portfolio as well for the retail investor we've built this portfolio to target about a 10 annual volatility that's in line roughly with a 60 40 portfolio and we think we can generate a return competitive with equity so in excess of a 60 40 portfolio so that's how we've designed this and you know bridgewater has a number of ways that they implement this portfolio so you know it depends on on how they package it but that's how we've structured it so this risk parity etf rpar has an expense ratio of 50 basis points so half of one percent which is essentially the fee that you're charging the investors for managing the etf but that said our part is holding lots of other etfs that i know also charge similar fees so is the 50 basis points inclusive of all of those fees or in addition it includes all those fees so that is the total net expense ratio yeah and to keep the fees low we use etfs where there are low cost options like vanguard ets for example in cases where there are no low cost options we actually get the index exposure by just buying the securities directly to avoid that additional layer so if apa is holding all of those say low cost etfs from vanguard which advantages would it give me as a retail investor to hold the apart etf compared to buy up the underlying etfs that airpods holding in the first place and thereby saving the cost for your atf it's a great question and it's something that we've been dealing with for about 15 years because we used to do that we used to buy the underlying assets and in one word the reason it's better in the etf is efficiency so the etf is very tax efficient so for taxable investors who take all those assets and put it inside of the etf you gain tremendous tax advantages where effectively most your return is deferred until you sell the etf as opposed to generating taxes throughout the process the etf has about 20 percent of leverage within it as we described earlier that's achieved at a very very low cost near zero so that's fairly attractive i'd say the biggest advantage of the etf is implementing this strategy is you know while it's easy to talk about it's hard to do in practice because it's so different from the traditional approach and anybody who's been managing even their own portfolio or other portfolios realizes that humans are hardwired to look at their portfolio their eyes go directly to the thing that's doing the worst and their emotional response is how do i fix this this is the problem and what you're supposed to do is buy the things that are doing the worst rather than sell the things that are doing the worst and because all the assets in here are relatively volatile they move around a lot and so your emotions are going to be pulled in all different directions if you're trying to manage this outside of the etf structure and so what you're supposed to do is buy low sell high but the emotional reaction typically is buy high sell low and so this prevents you from doing that because the package is much more palatable and easier to hold on to than the underlying line items and so that's actually one of the biggest advantages of putting everything inside the etf and you know we just talked about the fees so the fees are very reasonable and in some cases a lot of the assets inside have no additional layer of fees and then the last advantage is there is a little bit of discretion in extreme cases so for example in march when the deflation alarm started to sound balance in a deflationary world is a little bit different from all of their environments and for the portfolio targets changed a little bit the allocation of the tips went down the allocation of treasures and gold went up and that trigger occurs because of our understanding of what it means to be balanced in these extreme environments and so that also occurs within the etf and if you're doing it outside you may not have that insight one thing that alex mentioned i think is an important point that a lot of investors maybe don't fully appreciate which is the benefit of rebalancing regularly and what that means from a return perspective at the portfolio level so we've looked at this mix of assets because we created this index going back to 1998.

02. so we've looked at this since 1998 explicitly in the index context we've also looked at it with similar exposures back 100 years and what we found is by rebalancing regularly the portfolio return is about a percent higher on average than the average of the underlying component return so if you take the average of the stock component the treasury component tips component etc that average is a percent lower than the portfolio average return which is really powerful from from an investment perspective and something that we don't think a lot of investors appreciate to the degree they should partially because when you rebalance across similar things you don't have nearly the same benefit that that benefit exists it's proportional to how lowly correlated the components are this gets back to your original point of the holy grail the holy grail isn't just a risk-reducing phenomenon it's also if you can find things that are lowly correlated to one another and individually are quite risky and combined in a portfolio you actually get a portfolio that's higher returning than the underlying components so that is a really powerful aspect that we've been able to take advantage of that context the etf yeah it's kind of the oldest rule in investing buy low sell high and it's just hard to do and the reason it's easier to do with these assets is because you're not betting on any skill or anything like that you're just betting that you have mean reversion and broad asset classes that have been around a long time it's easier to have confidence in that thanks for watching make sure to subscribe and hit that notification bell so you don't miss out on our next podcast episode and new investing resources what are your takeaways and thoughts on this discussion let us know in the comments section below