The Market Crash has Begun.

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주식시장이 애플 등 대형주 급락으로 흔들렸으나 피보나치 되돌림 관점에서는 정상 조정이라는 해석을 소개. 틱차트 저조는 알고리즘 매도 가능성을 시사. 고용지표 둔화와 Fed 동결 기대, 7월 CPI(8/10 발표) 예상 상승 경계, 실적 발표 후 PayPal 반납 사례 등을 두고 강세·약세 논쟁을 정리하며 발표자 본인의 명확한 방향 판단은 드러나지 않음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. holy smokes the stock market feels like it just collapsed with apple falling over 4.8 percent giving up its three trillion dollar Royal Crown gone some say it's anger some say it's profit taking some say it's just a regular retracement bro it's totally normal after all if we take a peek at uh well the retracement lines it's almost perfect look at that retracement on Apple right back down to where it belongs that support line it's almost perfect you can't make it up what if we look at the NASDAQ nearly perfect as well right back down to those retracement lines check out Tesla same thing let's take a look at the S P 500 via the Spy same thing it looks like we've just gone through a Fibonacci retracement retracement or have we is there potentially something worse beneath the scenes going on well some have analyzed take charts which are a fancy way actually they're not really fancy at all they're pretty simple you just basically take net buys minus net cells like the number of orders for these and the tick charts are coming in super low now to us that's like who cares about the pick chart well the implication of this the bottom line of this is that when you have the tick chart coming in super low you generally suspect that it's algorithmic selling driving the market lower and these two things could actually align that algorithms incorporating retracement lines are pushing us right back to those lines so the tick charts imply it the technical analysis implies this is a retracement but there's still fear and there could be legitimate fear let's talk about that legitimate fear and is this stock market mini crash this week just the start of a bigger crash has The Real Crash Just Begun or is this part of what we've been saying since about the end of last year I expect some kind of volatile Nike Swoosh recovery and this is the volatility after all volatility has finally come off its insane floor which is leading others to say it's just about activity bro okay fine so we've got some of the Bro ideas out of the way let's now dive a little deeper into what some of the facts are of what's going on the biggest thing that we've had this week has really been twofold one we had the Fitch downgrade which led to massive Bond selling the massive Bond selling some say was also algorithmic but it led to higher yields higher yields compare or combined with FIB retracements great reasons for algorithms to sell Bear say look ma'am the payrolls report that we just got it's all lagging get prepared for a massive collapse in fact I haven't seen this many negative comments on a payrolls report in years people are very suspicious of the government data they're pissed off because the Market's read and they're pissed because quite frankly the government has revised down payroll's data every time they've released it in at least the last six months now Bulls respond to this and say fine it may be true that payroll's data is always revised down even more than the reports that we get but there was some good news in the reports and we have to consider Trend so what could possibly have been good news we'll take a look at this this is a Slowdown in the part of the economy that Powell cares most about which is private services in other words are we finally seeing that slowdown in something that has been driving the bulk of core inflation service inflation you already know this you already know that the three things that have led to uh inflation have been Goods inflation housing inflation and then Services X housing we already have disinflation in Goods that means prices are going up at a slower rate we are seeing housing rents grow at a slower rate as well now that doesn't mean they're going down although they probably should because they've gotten ridiculous and then over here we are waiting for this to occur Services X housing that would be really your labor and Hospitality or retail so on and so forth and we are seeing that wage growth decline substantially this is leading a lot of bulls to say look this is good the part that was hot for Powell is softening that's great but the Bears are saying bro Jay Powell just jacked up rates again this is a lagging chart it is about to collapse and this is where the bears actually have a potentially reasonable argument payroll gains tend to go negative very rapidly into a recession now anecdotally according to the Wall Street Journal and the beige book we see companies that are still hoarding labor and in fact are still fighting for labor and don't want to retrain new workers instead are taking cash that they have and are spending it to what invest in their companies and basically invest through this recession but as soon as fear strikes the labor market that is company's willingness to hire job gains can erode rapidly and this is where the Bears have a point take a look at two thousand in the year 2000 we actually had continuing Trend right here continuing trends for labor gains it wasn't really until the end of 2000 that all of a sudden job gains plummeted and they plummeted rapidly this by the way uh in yellow let's go ahead and draw yellow line here the yellow line I'm about to show you is the negative line so anything under yellow is negative look how rapidly we collapsed into that in 2000 then we also rapidly collapsed at the beginning of 2008 you can see this uh tick right here this top is about November of 2011 and all of 2008 you had this extremely rapid decline a lot of bears are saying look the stats we're looking at suggests we have a 100 chance of a recession in the next 12 months and that means we're probably going to see this big plummet maybe it wasn't in 2023 maybe it all took a little longer to come around but it's coming and 2024 is right around the corner so buckle up we're about to go to hell that's at least the argument bears are making Bulls on the other hand counter and say but look the trend this trend by the way from the beginning of 2021 to now has been relatively reasonable in fact if we jump over to the historic Norm of job gains the historic average job gains is this white line right here it puts you at about 176 000 jobs created per month that's roughly the historic average flattening out the highs and the lows well where are we sitting right now well right now the low level where we are is about 172 which as you can see we haven't actually gone really with the exception of right here we haven't really gone below trend yet but then again the Bears respond and say but bro when we do it happens fast we could get a rapid deterioration and this is where others say well not necessarily see where this is going it's a constant back and forth not necessarily because bro look at the below Trend jobs growth of the era of 2015 to 2019 where markets were still essentially in a relatively bullish tone the average if we just look at 2015 to 2019 is probably actually closer to here which puts you closer to about 120 000 jobs gained per month so short of seeing this rapid decline in jobs so far it looks like payrolls are moving as normal however and this is the danger payroll jobs payroll gains tend to collapse rapidly not briefly and this is where it's nice to look at the Federal Reserve well fed are you finally relaxing or are you just going to keep hiking well a lot is going to depend on what happens with the next CPI report we did get some commentary from uh Bostic today and another member of the Federal Reserve we got two commentaries we got Bostic and goolspear was but Goolsby is a dove boss takes a little more neutral but both of them suggested that the labor market was coming into better balance more quickly now than expected a lot of people looked at this and said okay this is the Fed basically forecasting that we're probably going to pause in September doesn't mean rates can't go up again in the future but yesterday we were looking at somewhere around a 16 percent chance of a hike in September now we're only looking at about a 13 chance and expectations are that this number is going to fall even more that we're probably gearing up for a pause in September that would be at least somewhat good Bears say it's a little too late we're still going to have a massive earnings collapse over the next year and you're not going to want to be in stocks although others say they're just looking for a lower opportunity to buy stocks but what's a real Catalyst that we have coming up oh and by the way the FED terminal funds rate actually just fell as well at least according to the Market's estimates now in line with a pause it just dropped over the last few hours from a few little ticks towards a hike direction to in line with a pause now sitting at 5.367 for those caring about the numbers well the next big Catalyst of course is CPI data and it could also be some negative news coming for CPI data this is also leading to heart palpitations and potentially algorithmic selling what do we have we have CPI month over month estimates to be 0.2 percent that's great CPI month over month core 0.2 percent great those would be roughly in line with what we're looking for however that headline year-over-year CPI thanks to base effects and an increase in oil prices to some extent more base effects though because our month over month isn't changing that much we're looking for a 3.3 read on the headline inflation uh level The Last Read was three percent so now we're going to the wrong direction and all it would take is confirming that wrong direction with a Miss on some of these core numbers and you'll probably set up for a really ugly August that CPI report by the way comes out August 10th so mark your calendar for August 10th the day after that we expect to get PPI reads and PPI final demand is expected to move up from 0.1 to 0.7 so still relatively close to zero especially for a year-over-year number but a little bit more pressure on some of these numbers than we had in the last reports so last reports could have been some nice soft reports these a little rougher so all of this combined with the fact that hey some things in earnings weren't perfect for everyone has given us really what I call a give back look for example at the give back of PayPal if you jump into the charts here you can see PayPal basically gave up all of its recent gains after its last earnings report not great I actually bought a little bit of PayPal right around 63 bucks it went all the way to 77.76 Dollars there at one point and look at that right back to sixty three dollars oopsie Daisy I suppose now what else do you have well you've got again these retracements dragging down Industries higher interest rates dragging down Industries what do we really need to confirm the official bull market is back what we truly need is the Federal Reserve to truly U-turn now Bears argue the FED will only do that once something breaks Bulls argue well the federal U-turn officially and start cutting rates when inflation confirms that it's down but folks on the bare side Say by that time it's going to be way too late and the Crash will already be here so what's your take on this do you align more with the Bears or with the bulls obviously a red week makes it much easier to align with the Bears because the movement of the stock charts really messes with people's psychology people get sad when stocks are red and they're in stocks and they get happy when they're out of stocks and stocks are red so you kind of have this weird psychology at play that generally when the stock market is red either reiterates how the Bears feels feel or makes the Bulls feel sad so it's pretty common to have negative sentiment compound into more negative sentiment that's how you also get Euphoria in the other direction anywho make sure to go to houseac.com to learn more about my real estate startup coming out once we release the full slide deck and everything for non-accredited investors stay tuned