저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 짐 로저스는 향후 수년간 최악의 약세장이 올 것이라 보며, 현금과 달러 보유를 강조하고 실버·농산물이 상대적으로 덜 위험하다고 봄. 주식시장: 미국 증시는 12~13년 상승으로 과열 상태이며 약세장이 임박했다고 봄. 많은 나라에 버블이 형성되었고 금리 인상이 불가피하다고 언급. 다만 악재 속 과도한 비관이 호재를 만나면 단기 반등(숏커버링)이 올 수 있다고 봄. 2008년 이후 부채가 전 세계적으로 급증해 이번 약세장이 내 생애 최악이 될 것이라 주장. 달러: 달러는 안전자산이라서가 아니라 위기 때 피난처로 몰리기 때문에 보유 중이며, 위기가 깊어지면 달러가 과대평가되어 버블이 될 수 있다고 봄. 원자재: 원유는 에너지 공급 부족(원전·석탄 폐쇄)으로 상승장이 예상보다 길어질 것이라 봄. 그러나 경기둔화로 전 세계 경제가 나빠지면 원유 외 주요 상품은 조정받고 있다고 언급. 금리·연준: 연준이 75bp 인상하면 시장은 최악이 지나갔다고 받아들여 단기 랠리가 있을 수 있다고 봄. 중앙은행들이 돈을 과도하게 찍어 인플레이션이 악화될 것이라 비판. 암호화폐: 비트코인은 1달러일 때 샀어야 했다고 후회하지만, 암호화폐 자체에 대한 입장은 변함없이 부정적이며 보유하지 않겠다고 밝힘. 귀금속·농산물: 실버는 상대적으로 덜 위험하다고 보며 급락 시 추가 매수 의향 표명. 금도 상대적으로 덜 위험하다고 언급. 농산물도 덜 위험한 자산으로 꼽음. 중국: 중국의 둔화는 세계 2위 경제이므로 모두에게 영향을 줄 것이라 봄. 투자 조언: 새로 시장에 들어온 초보 투자자에게 잘 아는 것에만 투자하고 핫팁을 듣지 말라고 조언. 출연자 전망 요약: 단기 반등 가능성은 열어두지만 중기적으로는 길고 깊은 약세장을 예상하며 현금과 달러 비중 확대에 무게를 둠.
다듬은 글
well gives me great pleasure to bring on board Jim Rogers to understand what he makes of the madness the Meltdown the selling and the blow up that's happened in just about every major commodity Jim Rogers good morning good morning good morning how are you as nice to see you also nice to have you back makes sense for the madness which is happening in the world well it's not your fault I don't think uh it is interesting that your Market is up as as calm today compared to what's going on in the rest of the world uh it may mean the rally is coming we've had a huge drop as you know worldwide and that often leads to a rally I have no idea Jim the fact that cryptocurrencies have melted there is a fear that interest rates will move higher and that will slow down the economy more what kind of narrative do you think is that play here one side is fear second side is a genuine fear of genuine compulsion of unwinding the world stock markets have been going up for 12 or 13 years that's the longest in American history anyway so we're certainly overdue for a problem we don't have to have one but we do but inflation is coming back stocks in many countries were extremely high bubbles were developing in many countries interest rates had to go up I mean we're overdue for a bare Market I I don't I'm not trying to scare people or something but we've always had bare markets throughout history and we will have them again and we're getting very close I I see a lot of pessimism in the world right now that could lead to a rally if some good news comes but we're going to have a bare Market again and it's coming soon and it's going to be very very bad Jim I mean honestly ly there seems to be just one trade which is working out and that's long dollar so do you sense that in this bare scenario um that that trade would continue to hold and we will continue to see dollar appreciate as opposed to any other asset class well I've explained to you before that I own a lot of dollars not because it's a sound currency but because when there's turmoil people look for a safe haven many people think the US dollar is a safe haven it's not but people think it is that's why I own it and as the turmoil comes more and more people will rush to the dollar to be safe the dollar will get overpriced the dollar could turn into a bubble I hope I'm smart enough to get out Jim you know the other thing we were discussing is that everything in the world is falling down except for crud that continues at 120 $122 and for India at least or for that matter for the rest of the world that doesn't solve anything your view on crude and when do you think we're going to see a meaningful correction well it doesn't help many countries when the price of energy goes through the roof as you well know uh unfortunately known reserves of of energy are inclined worldwide and many countries have closed down coal Ms closed down nuclear power and so we have to have a bull market in in in crude because people don't have any choice uh I would expect this bull market in crude to last longer than most of us expect uh eventually of course more supplies will come on stream eventually people will open nuclear power plants again eventually people will open coal mines again but in the meantime we don't have any oil okay Jim but again I want to just extend Aisha's point which is that if we are in for a Slowdown then demand also has to come down with the exception of oil and coal all major Commodities have corrected well yes look out the window stocks assets are collapsing everywhere I'm not the only one who knows it I watch ET everybody who watches ET knows that problems are going on in the world and so people are beginning to cut back and some are cutting back dramatically there is but to repeat as a possible optimist there is a lot of pessimism and that often leads to a big rally if some good news comes I don't know maybe there'll be peace in Ukraine who knows then we'll have a big rally but that will be the last rally if fed suddenly does 75 bips if they do we don't know but later this week if you hear that fed is going to move by 75 bips will that scare the market or will that make the markets happy that they've bitten the bullet well that might be what the market would perceive as good news because that the market would then say ah the worst is over now they raised interest rates by 75 basis points so we can have a big rally uh the market would see that as good news because they would say the worst is over the worst won't be over but the market might perceive that for a while because there's so much pessimism right now all right too much of pessimism message from Jim Rogers is that if there is good news spark it could spark a wave of short covering Jim I'm going to go back to that opening comment of yours that we are in a bare market and we are in a bare market after a 10 12 year long bull market so if we are in a bare market and since bull market and bare Market they coexist are we in for a very long protracted period of bare Market we may see smart rallies Jim that's okay but otherwise you think this is going to be a 5 seven year long bare Market this is going to be the worst bare Market in my lifetime we had a bare Market in 2008 because of too much debt and you know the debt everywhere has skyrocketed since 2008 gigantic in Japan or Europe or America everywhere even India debt has gone up so no this has to be the worst bar Market in my lifetime which means it will go down a lot and it will last a long time do I like it no no of course not but I have to deal with reality and there is staggering amounts of debt in the world now good morning Jim Rogers so we are in the grip of a bare Market can I ask you straight up what would your advice be to investors we are seeing U you know cash holding worldwide surpass what it was during the great financial crisis back home in India in the last two years we've seen penetration of our Equity markets and many many new firsttime investors as well that always happens at the end of a bull market all over the world it's not just India you see lots of new people come in they get excited about how easy it is to make money they think it will last forever this is not my first rodeo I've seen this movie before this is what happens and yes you're exactly right a lot of new people are coming in the only advice like the only way that will save you is only invest in what you yourself know a lot about don't listen to the TV maybe you can listen to ET but for the most part do not listen to other people stay with what you know what you know and then you might survive listening to Hot Tips will ruin you Jim Rogers I was reading an interview of yours I think about a fortnight ago and I wanted to ask you this question and now I can so I'm going to um about 2 3 weeks ago you said you wish you had bought the Bitcoin 10 years ago but since 2017 all your interviews what I've been reading you talk about is it's all bubbles it's all about a Gamble and you wouldn't go near it has Jim Rogers changed his mind when it comes to cryptos and Bitcoin no not at all what I said was I wish I had bought it when it was $1 don't you doesn't everybody I mean it went to $60,000 of course I wish I had bought it when it was a dollar or $5 Etc that does not mean I've changed my mind about what's going to happen with cryptos no cryptos I I don't own any I am not going to buy any as they come down but I certainly wish I'd borrow $5 I'd have a lot of money now but that does not mean I've changed my mind and think it's going to change the world Jim you told nikun that whenever you come to India next you're going to gift him a silver coin I hope you know that you're going to carry two more for Nara and me well I'll go down to the local market and buy all of you some I'll buy each one of you a Bitcoin if we can find if if they still exist when I get to India we happy to accept silver no Bitcoins please not Bitcoins silver coins okay when we go to the market we will find something that will satisfy you India's very big on Silver as you know I own plenty of silver maybe we'll buy silver who knows what we will buy but is that uh the safe haven when it comes to uh Commodities gym right now I mean yeah crude of course but that we've already talked about is Silver the bet when it comes to Commodities and precious metals I do not use the term safe whenever I talk about Investments there's no such thing it's safe I I assure you I've been doing this a long time I wish I could find something say silver is probably less dangerous than other things gold is probably less dangerous I do I'm not buying them now because in a big collapse everything goes down but I probably will buy more silver when it goes down some more what is safe I I don't know anything that's safe agriculture is probably less dangerous silver agricult silver and agriculture are probably the least dangerous things in the next two or three years Jim so in your assessment what kind of scenario is is going to unfold one is a stack flation scenario I'm just making that elaborating that question for the benefit of our viewers where prices stay up demand gets punchered and second scenario is that we are in a high inflationary scenario where demand stays higher and asset prices also stay higher well no the problem is the central banks they don't know what they're doing and so most of them will print a lot of money certainly in the U I mean Japan is printing huge money already so you're going to see central banks print a lot lot more money and that's why inflation will get worse because they don't know what they're doing uh you know I've told you before you India had one of the best central banks we've had in the last 10 or 20 years recently unfortunately he's gone now I wish he were running the Central Bank in the US but most Central Bankers don't know what they do are doing they try to save their jobs and they'll print a lot of money and that's why we have inflation okay Jim uh what will be the implications of China slowdown it's implication of what slow China slowdown the fact that the Chinese are still struggling to open their economy and it's more like a yes no I don't know kind of an approach when it comes to co well China is the second largest economy in the world so of course if it slows down it's going to affect everybody not even I not just people who deal with China but other people too because everybody gets affected so the implications are and it's the virus the Chinese say it's because of the virus now and whatever it is though when you have large economies like China slow down it affects everybody and and you're going to see everybody slow down in the next recession it's going to be a very serious uh period of time everybody should watch ET in order to make sure we survive yes everyone should and everyone does watch ET Jim Rogers always a pleasure having you on ET now thank you so much for taking the time out it's my delight and I just want to say if you can find that former Central Bank governor in of India I think he's in Chicago now ask him to come back ask him to come back and save India ask him to go to Washington and save America he's a smart guy there are not many bureaucrats who are smart he was one he sure was raguram Rajan we'll get that message across to him Jim Rogers thank you so much thank you very very much I hope to see you again
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