저자: DanIves · 외국인
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나스닥이 약세장 직전까지 밀린 가운데 Dan Ives는 기술주가 과매도 상태이므로 지금이 매수 기회라고 주장한다. 시장 배경: 연준의 금리 인상 속도 둔화 기대로 10년물 금리 부담이 줄어 기술주에 우호적이라는 판단이다. 그는 투자자들과의 대화에서 기술주가 2015년 이후 가장 과매도 상태라고 평가했다. 펀더멘털: 클라우드, 사이버보안, 엔터프라이즈 수요 등 기본 동인은 우크라이나 사태로 변하지 않았다고 본다. 밸류에이션은 6년 전과 비교해 성장률 대비 낮은 수준이라고 말했다. 추천 종목: 마이크로소프트, 애플, 시스코, 오라클 같은 대형주를 안전자산 성격으로 보고, 사이버보안(지스케일, 크라우드스트라이크)은 강력한 매수 대상으로 제시했다. 반도체 중에서는 AMD와 엔비디아를 공급망 완화 수혜주로 꼽았다. 공급망: 3~4월 들어 글로벌 공급망 병목이 완화되고 있어 애플, 자동차(포드, GM, 테슬라)에 긍정적이라고 평가했다. 반도체 제재 우려에 대해서는 파운드리 업체들이 다변화해 영향이 제한적이라고 봤다. 리스크: 우크라이나 사태가 NATO 인접국으로 확산되는 블랙스완 시나리오에서는 소비·기업 공급망 전반에 추가 매도가 나올 수 있다고 경고했다. 테슬라: SEC의 일론 머스크 주식 매도 조사에 대해 머스크 스스로 초래한 문제이며, 소셜미디어 행보가 주가의 부담 요인이라고 비판했다. 본업인 EV 수요와 오스틴 공장 성장은 긍정적으로 평가했다. 결론: 단기 변동성은 있겠지만 6~9개월 뒤 돌아보면 지금이 소프트웨어·반도체·사이버보안을 매수할 기회였다는 장기 낙관론을 유지했다.
다듬은 글
well coming into today the nasdaq was less than two percent from a bear market and if levels at the open had held we would have seen the tech heavy average close there in bear market however today's run from those levels is welcome news but is this enough to justify an extended rally is the question here with more we've got dan ives webbush securities managing director dan good to speak with you this afternoon half a session we know does not make a trend here but perhaps the market is is reading into the fed perhaps delaying the brunt of its tightening we don't have the firm indication that they would be doing so but do you believe that that's what tech investors here today are leaning into the ethos of perhaps yeah i think look the clear read through a 50-bit you know hike that's off the table and i think now much slower trajectory obviously it's gonna be positive in terms of the 10-year yield relative to tech stocks you know in terms of the risk off trade look i think fundamentally i could tell you from conversations last night with investors this morning just way oversold and i think it's his most oversold i've seen tech stocks in 2015 because this scary and white knuckle period as this is if you look at the fundamental driving cyber security cloud enterprise that's not changing because of the ukraine conflict and i think investors are starting to use periods like this you go historically geopolitical black salon events the last 25 years there have been more opportunities in those crisis and chaos rather than time itself so do you believe that we have hit at least in tech and some of the big tech big cap names mega cap tech names that we've seen a bottom placed in or is there any inclination to believe that there is still more of a downside to come look there could always be of course more downtime more volatile but i think we are getting to the point where we are way oversold in terms of tax relative to fundamentally from a peg perspective in terms of growth relative to pe i mean we're going to back the valuations six years ago you know relative to growth especially in some of these areas like cloud cyber security chips we'd be strong buyers here look it's obviously it's a nerve-racking environment it's buckled the seat belt period when i look at areas on large cap names like microsoft apple cisco oracle safety blanket names look at cyber security names like z scale or crowd strike pow out though there's going to be many yelling fire in a crowd theater at scary times but we view at least over the last 20 years we've used these opportunities to kind of help investors pick up some of the gems and so dan when we think about more broadly here with the international conflict one of the things that has been on the table and has come up repeatedly in discussion is certainly with regard to semiconductors and whether there would be sanctions uh chip related or chip directed sanctions and even towards some of the materials that could also come into play during this particular international conflict that are necessary to make semiconductors does that change your reading on any of those manufacturers whether they be fabrication model manufacturers or whether they just be design manufacturers yeah the immersion of fabs most of the python they've been able to diversify pretty good in terms of when we think about any impact here i do think it's pretty contained you know relative to any sort of uh either sanction or even from a supply chain perspective look i think the irony is supply chain issues are moderated globally as we go into march and april now granted this is something that you know no one expected her and worst nightmares would have wanted to see but supply chains moderating that's huge in terms of a talon for tech which is why brad i believe we look at this period of time here six nine months from now and this was an opportunity to own software chips rather than time to sell it does that supply chain moderation also impact or alter any of your price targets on some of the tech players especially reliant on their ability to produce consumer technology products or for some of them computers on wheels even what's bullish for apple because that's been supply chain constraint it's bullish from a chip perspective names like amd and nvidia i think it's bullish for automotive players like a ford gm and of course tesla you know because right now i mean that's been the biggest overhang in a lot of those ev names and automotive intact i mean in terms of the supply chain and obviously things have changed dramatically last 24 hours but in times like this i think you just have to you know look at the fundamental drivers you know sort of tune out the noise as hard as it is because i think that's where you find the opportunities in in sort of chaos if this were to permeate over into any nato touching countries what type of impact do you believe that that would have then on how we look at this entire situation especially for tech companies that do have more of that globalized approach well i think that's one of those scenarios we looked at a bell curve scenario and then you start to look more the worst black swan events i mean that's where it gets more negative because from a consumer from an enterprise supply chain you know both from tech to automotive i mean that's where you could really start to see that sort of next leg in terms of a sell-off but but that's why i think when you look at the situation right now in ukraine i think investors you're starting to see more and more of that appetite for tech because i think there's a recognition when you start to do stress tests and scenarios you know i think tech right here the the risk is clearly there and a lot of bad news baked in i think it really creates the opportunity especially some of these names like software chips and cyber security that's one that you really circle you mentioned tesla a moment ago want to get your reaction to an sec probe that is looking into elon musk and brother kimball musk that coming after some of their sales of shares of course noteworthy here was the time period that those sales took place in relation to the other infamous tweet of a poll nature i should say where elon musk was asking his twitter followers how much he should sell also knowing how much he needed to sell at that point in time as well with regard to the sec this just further signals and and further goes into this tension relationship that tesla and elon musk have had with the regulatory body and so what do you expect the sec to look into does it materially impact how investors look at tesla right now well i think musk has created this himself i mean from the poll to to twitter and that continues to be a black cloud over the stock and it's something the lack of situational awareness that he's had from a social media perspective in this environment or risk off is astounding in a bad way and i think it's something where you know as obviously as they look into this in terms of you know from musk and tesla i think it just speaks to a broader issue you almost have you know you have two sets of things happening first in terms of the core business eevee demand transformational growth everything that's happening in austin and that's obviously extremely positive even the supply chain issues but then you look at musk and from a twitter perspective and as well as everything in terms of the selling stock and the poll it's something that's really left a lot of investors with a bad taste in their mouth for good reason look what the stock's done since so it's just been a very concerning trend that we've seen here and i think this is just another example you know that that must continue to sort of be you know in some ways just an overhang especially from a social media perspective wedbush securities managing director dan ovez joining us here this afternoon dan always a pleasure to speak with you thanks for joining us
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