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테슬라 Q4 실적 발표 후 컨퍼런스콜 내용을 분석. 자동차 매출 정체(약 1% 성장), 에너지 저장 사업 10% 성장, 서비스 매출 27% 증가 및 흑자 전환, 운영비 증가로 영업이익은 전년 대비 감소. 차세대 저가 차량(2025 말 텍사스 공장, 실제 출시는 2027 추정)과 전용 제조 공정이 경쟁 우위로 언급됨. 금리 인하 시 테슬라가 레버리지 수혜주라며 420달러 재시험 가능성을 언급했으나, 금리가 유지되면 단기 상승은 어렵다고 봄. 시간외 주가는 약 5.75% 하락.
다듬은 글
what is going on investors hopefully you guys are doing well out there time to charge up your Tesla as the company just reported their Q4 earnings after the bell I just got off the conference call made some notes over on Twitter talk about some of the things that they talked about on the conference call we'll take a look at the Ford Revenue estimates for this company how bullish or how bearish is Wall Street as it relates to revenue estimates in the upcoming quarters and what is the likelihood of Tesla meeting these targets we'll go over the financials as well line by line every single one of these lines just kidding we won't go through every one of these lines we'll pick out the most important ones we'll take a a close look at the company's energy storage business the profitability there the growth rate as that business definitely humming right along we'll take a look at deferred revenue which gives you kind of a Ford demand in terms of pre-orders for Tesla we'll have a look at the balance sheet and the cash flow statement as well look at most of this on a quarterly basis maybe stretch it out for the full year on a few cases now with Tesla I am seeing in the after hours shares are moving lower at the current time down a little over 5 and 1 12% almost 5 and 3/4% as this stock has just simply gone nowhere over the past four years well now not quite nowhere but for the most part you could have bought Tesla at about $200 per share nearly four year actually over four years ago you could have bought Tesla shares for about $200 per share now in the meantime you've gone up over $420 per share and down to 100 so depending on your timing with Tesla will depend on if you are up or down in this investment certainly a volatile share in stock to say the least now on the conference call the company did pump up their nextg vehicle without actually pumping it up they said they didn't really want to comment on it it was an earnings call not really a product announcement but they did talk about the nextg vehicle a fair amount Elon mus saying that that nextg vehicle which is promised to be a quote we'll put this in air quotes a cheaper vehicle maybe something with a starting price with a two in front of it 28 25 somewhere in there 25,000 is what I'm referencing to uh Elon saying that that vehicle come at the end of 2025 out of the Texas facility that probably means 2027 considering how bullish uh Elon Musk has been as it relates to the nextg vehicle also as it relates to the nextg vehicle which I thought was probably the more interesting aspect of it is that the machines Tesla is going to use to actually manufacture the nextg vehicle they don't actually exist so they actually going to manufacture these themselves or or maybe with a partner and the company feels it gives them a large competitive Advantage because as it relates to the next gen vehicle Tesla says that the manufacturing process is the competitive advantage that it has there and so the fact that no other car maker could you know maybe immediately copy their manufacturing process could give Tesla a competitive Advantage we'll certainly see Tesla is absolutely a leveraged play on interest rates dropping because Elon Musk said if interest rates drop quickly their margins will get better if they don't margins won't I mean he basically said it like that so if interest rates drop and they drop rather quickly I would actually expect Tesla shares to retest highs up at 420 sometime this year if you get a dramatic drop now Tesla's not going to be the only stock that would benefit okay a lot of financial stocks a lot of refinancing stocks real estate stocks there's going to be a lot of stocks that are going to benefit from interest rates dropping so I I I want you to just think oh well Tesla's the way to play interest rates dropping it will be one way to play that but obviously the downside is if interest rates stay the same or stay a little sticky there I I don't think there's any chance Tesla retests the highs anytime soon Elon Musk saying that there's no other car maker interested in full self-driving yet he noted I think on the previous conference call that they are interesting in licensing full self-driving very similar to the charging standard the plug that goes into to the car I I think there'll be one and the same I think once you had one manufacturer realized well my customers can't figure out a place to charge their car we better get on the Tesla standard once they figured that out then all the other car makers fell into place by 2025 there's going to be no other plug basically other than the Tesla one and I think full self-driving will move into that as well I do think Tesla has an advantage there how much money they make licensing that out remains to be seen Elon mus said there's a lack of awareness of the Tesla brand in the great country of Japan and Japan happens to be the third largest market in the world they talked a little bit about advertising and digital marketing sounds like they've had a little bit of a success there now as it relates to success and forward Revenue estimates wall Street's expecting another year right around 20% growth rate that would match what you did this year it would push Tesla over the 11615 billion sales Mark and revenue mark But the questions for investors is will that be enough to move shares at still five times sales pretty richly valued from an automaker perspective and so that's where you need those gross margins and that profitability to come in because if the profitability doesn't get any better your forward price to earnings is still going to look rather Rich to most investors and that's going to limit the kind of The Upside potential you see in Tesla shares now as it relates to those automobile revenues you're seeing they basically have stalled out just 1% growth year-over-year on a quarterly basis you did see a nice little tick up they enter storage business up 10% year-over-year but I did notice it went flat although maybe some of that could be seasonality considering most of their business is wrapped around kind of solar energy and the sun just simply doesn't shine as much in Q4 and so maybe you're less likely to install solar during that period of time but still solid 10% growth there services and other Revenue this is merchandise used cars other services up a strong 27% and that is now generating surprise profits as well total revenues for the company up about 3% year-over-year but it's balanced off by their operating expenses increasing about 27% although if you kind of look at this in more of a narrow Focus you do notice that quarter over quarter our revenues went from 23.35% being a good operator this guy's one of the best operating CEOs from just a controlling cost perspective that I think exist in the world so he's a good Steward of the capital over at Tesla and you do see income from operations quarter over quarter ticking up to over two billion dollars but it is down considerably from a year ago when the gross margins on those Vehicles was considerably higher you look at it from a full year perspective paint's a relatively similar story revenues are up 19% year-over year but your costs are up about 22% so your income from operations slipping from a year ago when they were close to 13.7 billion now closer to 8.9 but if you want to go back way in time all the way back to 2019 this company was losing money from an operating perspective so things have certainly come a long way over at Tesla now one change that I did notice with the release of the Cyber Tru they're no longer breaking out Model S and model X which is the more expensive models that Tesla makes they're grouping Model S model X and this also this other model production will include some cyber truck numbers as well you are seeing quarter over quarter a nice tick up but year over year even with the addition of the Cyber truck you're down about 12% on what we'll call the quote premium models the kind of 60 700,000 card that Tesla makes obviously interest rates is tied to that it's actually a myth that if you're Mega wealthy that that you actually pay for your car with cash Nobody Does that often times you're actually leasing them and you're certainly doing it on a payment plan very few people I know actually pay for their cars in cash as it's a depreciating asset you actually don't want to pay for a depreciating asset all upfront because cash depreciates in value over time as well you want to pay with it and that depreciating cash you want to buy appreciating assets like real estate maybe even Collectibles and certainly stocks you want to pay with that cash UPF front still see strong model 3 Model y production and model y happened to be the bestselling car electric or not across the board this year solar deployed you did see a disappointment here down 59% even quarter over quarter disappointment here and maybe there is no se seasonality to solar deployed as you had 100 megawatts deployed in Q4 of last year just 41 but your storage business very solid 30% growth and consistent where you've been over the last couple of quarters and here's is probably the biggest moat in the company and we've been saying this for a long time the biggest moat are the Chargers and that came to realization this year once people started buying the other EVS the rivan the Mercedes The Hondas the Kia they realized there is no place to reliably charge that thing and Tesla is the only company with a large amount of supercharger stations out there and that is why they're charging standard is now out there and it's another reason why their services and other Revenue continues to tick High year speaking of the services business $2.16 billion worth of Revenue $2.1 billion worth of cost starting to see some profit eak out there the energy storage business as well which again is going to grow faster I don't think I don't really care what happens to interest rates this year unless they go all the way back down to zero your energy storage business is probably going to grow faster than the automobile business revenues there 1.4 billion in the quarter 1.1 billion in cost you're generating about $300 million worth of operating income every quarter it's consistent what we've seen over the past couple of quarters company like we said has done a nice job controlling cost research development selling and marketing all within a reasonable range keeping profits relatively in a good place for Tesla now on the balance sheet probably the most interesting thing well first of all you can't just gloss over it the company has a bolt load of cash considering you look at other automakers out there they have very few liabilities part of their liabilities is actually something called deferred revenue which is essentially kind of reservations for the car I did see a nice strong pickup here from 2.2 billion in just the last quarter all the way up to 2 point almost $2.9 billion so you had strong reservations coming in over a Tesla maybe some of that has to do with cyber Tru once those cars are delivered I think as they get close to delivered you can take this deferred revenue and move it up in tier to actual recognized Revenue finally when you come over to cash flows operating cash flow sitting about 4 .4 billion investing activities which includes mainly capex and purchase of some Investments committing about $4.8 billion more or less cash flow neutral once you line those numbers out and speaking of neutral again Stock's basically been in neutral for about four years now and you're looking for a break higher on Tesla and that in my opinion is going to go inside with interest rates you get interest rates to rapidly start going down probably sometime March April May June time frame you see the FED get really aggressive quarter Point Half Point drops I don't think we have any evidence that that's what they'll do but certainly that's that is something that could materialize if they wanted to you get that to happen then Tesla's stock will have some like a v-shape recovery retest these highs up here interest rates stay where they're at for most of the Year even if you only get like a quarter point or a half Point drop sometime this year this stock is just going to go nowhere it's just too hard to sell these expensive vehicles to people that don't already have the money for one it's just simply hard for them to get the money together and especially when you're looking at car interest rates at 7 8 9 10% and maybe you already have a decent car already you're going to stick it out with that car kind of ride or die with that car until interest rates go back down Tesla is a leveraged play on interest rates going down you also want to be careful where you buy the shares because again for the last four years shares have gone nowhere but you buy them near the lows you're sitting on a pretty huge gain if you bought them near the top you're sitting on a rather large loss but as it stands right now after reporting their Q4 earnings shares of Tesla down by about 5 and 3/4% we'll see how Wall Street digested the rest of the week and we'll be back on Friday for our Fang stack recap show and we'll cover anything that we might have missed in today's video Until then have a great week and we'll see you again soon
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