저자: 미상 · 한국인
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나스닥 선물이 17,410 돌파 후 약 2% 상승했으며 TQQQ·SOXL 단기 조정 후 재상승 전망. 1월 말까지 단기 조정 후 2월 상승 흐름을 예상하며, 2024년은 대세 상승의 3파동 구간이라 주장. 조정 시 매수 기회로 보고 역방향(인버스) 포지션은 위험하다고 경고.
다듬은 글
Hello, let's take a look at the NASDAQ market conditions. Before watching the video, I would be very grateful if you could press the like button just once. The channel needs to grow significantly so that I can upload more high-quality content. Let's start the video. Based on the last NASDAQ futures, this is a zone where an additional high could be reached immediately without breaking the 17,410 mark.
Starting from 17,410, the NASDAQ futures immediately proceeded with an additional rise, resulting in a gain of approximately 2%. Based on NASDAQ futures, a rise of about 2% (380 points) occurred; based on overseas futures, this was a zone where one could see a profit of roughly 13 to over 1,400 ticks.
I predicted a rise in NASDAQ futures and mentioned that a new high was possible. Currently, TQQQ is at a point where a short-term retracement is underway following the high of 57.88. I mentioned 58 dollars as the first sell price, and I am treating 58 dollars and 57.88 as the same level. Therefore, this wave is an overall corrective wave relative to the buy price.
From the ABC position, the current first price surge of TQQQ has yielded a profit of approximately 20%. At the same time, as mentioned in the last video, this is a new buying point for new buyers—specifically, a zone where an upward trend without correction is possible—so you should not wait to buy but enter a buy position immediately.
I previously advised entering multiple buy contracts in overseas futures, and I also stated that you should proceed with buying TQQQ SOXL right now. This is that position, and I mentioned that this is a zone where even those who missed the approximately 6% rise from the first TQQQ rise should buy immediately to aim for rising profits.
Now that the $ 58 touch, which I mentioned as the first sell price, has been reached, the next sell price is approaching $60. In this current zone, we can assume a form of short-term consolidation. You should consider buying between $56 and $54; I will explain the detailed counting again shortly. If you look at S XL, following the completion of the last ABC corrective wave, currently It has touched 38.90.
From the 38.9 position, an additional rise of approximately 6% from yesterday is currently underway, renewing the high once again. This section is currently showing a 42% profit relative to the wave low. I still believe the trend will continue. Now, the key question is whether the third wave remains.
Therefore, we are facing two possible paths: either it immediately renews the high, or, having already entered the third wave, it will raise the high again via a wave after a one-year period of consolidation. In both cases, we will inevitably look at the 44-minute chart based on [the reference point].
If a second correction occurs, I forecast a rebound around the $35 level. Therefore, from the current position, it will either head straight to $44 or undergo a slight retracement to $35 before proceeding with another upward wave. This is a section where we can forecast a continuous upward trend for the Nasdaq, TQQQ, and Excel through the first week of February.
I will explain this using the Nasdaq futures one-hour chart. After renewing the high, the first bearish candle appeared, and a rebound is currently in progress. From here, we must defend the 17,590 point. Defending the 17,590 point follows the pattern explained in the previous video, which suggests that an upward wave breaking the high once again could emerge.
This upward wave could proceed more significantly than the previous rise. If it shows a pattern of breaking the 1,590 point for the second time, the previous upward wave becomes the first wave, and a short-term retracement from the current position may occur. However, rather than this retracement lasting a long time, I forecast that it will show an upward wave again after about 1 to 2 trading days of bearish candles.
I understand that quite a few people have already taken profits to some extent. Rather than considering additional purchases from now on, you should pay attention to the current candle patterns. Also, there is no need to engage in excessive trading in the current zone; if it falls from here, it could continue to drop until Friday.
Therefore, since the market may flow in a way that corrects until Friday and starts an upward trend again next week, those who are currently taking a downturn on TQQQ S XL can skip Thursday and Friday for the short term regarding additional capital injection You can make a decision regarding this during the pre-market session next Monday.
If the market proceeds with a wave that immediately renews the high without such a correction, you should enter a chase buy position. Now, why is that? If such a correction does not occur here, let me explain using the time chart. The current zone is a range where you can consider patterns ranging from 1-2-3-4-5 to A-B-C, and even back to B-C patterns.
The phase I am explaining here will end quickly within 2 to 4 days. So, I mentioned the end of the Nasdaq correction around January 4th to 5th, and now it is January 25th, so January is coming to an end. Regarding the points I mentioned about buying in early January, a continuous rise has been ongoing, and now is a time when short-term waiting is required.
As of January 5th, the market has risen 26%, and TQQQ and SOXL have risen 56% as of January 5th. Therefore, rather than considering new purchases... Regarding how to hold and take profits, it seems you should manage for a short period of 3 to 4 trading days until the end of this January. If we assign Wave 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 to the current 2-hour Nasdaq futures chart, while you might assume a retracement here, assigning 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 in this manner could actually be an incorrect decision.
This is because it could be 3, not 3, 4, and 5. I have been consistently emphasizing this point, and therefore, you must profit from the 3rd wave trend. Since a short-term retracement of one or two days appears in the form of an A-B-C wave pattern, I am continuously explaining the counting strategy: starting from there, proceed to 1, A, B, C, and then another major 3-wave rise (1, 2, medium wave 2, medium wave 1), and finally back to 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 to achieve medium wave 38.
So, we are currently assuming a short-term retracement, and if such a retracement proceeds, TQQQ To explain based on the criteria, from here, A, B, and C could drop to approximately $54. Unless it shows a percentage drop of about 2% to 3% relative to the current price—that is, an additional -3% to -4%—there is no need to consider new purchases.
At the same time, if it shows signs of breaking through the recent high once again, there is a possibility that TQQQ will head straight for $62. Okay, I have raised the sell price to $ 62. Please confirm the trend above $60. Therefore, the current position is a zone where the wave can be carried a bit longer, and I am adjusting the counting accordingly.
The final sell price could reach over $65. Currently, the upward momentum of TQQQ is showing a much larger scale. I am continuously emphasizing that you should focus your buying on large-cap tech stocks and invest primarily in tech stocks. Therefore, based on TQQQ, we can expect to see a sell price of around $64 sometime in February.
If a short-term pullback occurs, it will likely finish within the 2% to 4% range and immediately show an upward wave. Since it can proceed in this form, you should always hold a certain amount. If an upward wave proceeds that renews the high while maintaining the 17,590 level shown in the current zone step by step, you may proceed to buy at a slightly higher level after confirming this pattern.
This is a form of chasing the price. Then, from the current position, an upward trend without correction could proceed until the end of January in a 1-2-3-4-5 wave pattern. Similarly, TQQQ could proceed directly upward without correction until the end of January. That would be the position of the wave.
Therefore, I am counting the entire wave to proceed until February. Following the Nasdaq futures, this is the chart that most neatly organizes the SXL overall counting; it is a 4-hour chart. The previous counting is identical. I am showing you these two charts separately, but if you look at it from a distance, this chart also looks like this: Wave 1 leading WYZ, Wave 2 correction, and after the ABC completion of the Wave 1 rise, it is now creating the first Wave 1 while proceeding with Wave 3.
I mentioned that it is merely a current position and will move forward in a major wave. The discussions regarding wave patterns that I have been explaining from the beginning of the video up until just now are all based on the hourly chart perspective. In other words, I am not discussing things like two days, four days, or six days from now, but rather short-term movements such as tomorrow evening, today's early morning, or tomorrow afternoon.
Therefore, general swing traders do not need to obsess over this. However, those who are interested and willing to pay a little more attention to these details should refer to this. Essentially, all the counting shown on this screen could be zones that pass within half a day. Since a correction is likely to occur until tomorrow, Friday, if you sell off a portion of your holdings today or partially sell them, and then bet on Friday's closing price to target next week, the probability of turning a profit is very high.
In short, to summarize the short-term trading strategy: Thursday and Friday. We can organize it like this. For today and tomorrow, adopt a selling perspective—that is, take profits and wait. Then, if a correction occurs between Friday and next Monday, proceed with buying, and by the end of next week, once again, from the position of an upward wave...
You can consider taking profits. What is the key point? It is that an upward trend will appear once again in February. We are currently in a zone where a short-term retracement is anticipated. Therefore, the current wave values suggest a common correction. If all waves have been completed, a correction will occur; even if it is a 3-wave 2, it will likely appear as a 4-wave correction.
In other words, rather than specifying whether it is a 5-wave or 3-wave, since this is a zone where a common retracement can be anticipated, it would be better to view this as securing cash reserves rather than discussing a correction. However, even if such a correction proceeds, to explain based on the So chart, a retracement from the current position could lead to a 3-wave uptrend that renews the high point once again after a one-year retracement.
Therefore, I would like to reiterate that in this zone, if it comes down, you can proceed with buying without overthinking. While hourly chart analysis is important, it is actually crucial to confirm the mid-to-long-term trend on a time frame larger than the raw chart. Ultimately, last year, 2023...
I have been advising you to buy since January, and as time passes, a significant strong rally has ultimately taken place. In this kind of trend—that is, a bull market—it is correct to view the rise even if a correction occurs in the middle. I have repeatedly emphasized this point: it is okay to get stuck with a long position, but you must not get stuck with a short position.
I told you that it is okay to get stuck with SOXL, but if you get stuck with SS, exiting is impossible. I have been continuously warning that if you take a short position anticipating a correction at this level, and the trend continues in this manner, exiting from an inverse product becomes impossible.
The market has flowed in a similar pattern throughout the beginning of this year and the entirety of last year. What you really need to pay more attention to right now is that some of you have stopped trading the Nasdaq or buying Bitcoin simply because the Nasdaq rose significantly last year. While both Bitcoin and the Nasdaq showed strong gains throughout 2023, that entire rise was actually merely the first wave.
As a long upward wave unfolded over the course of a year, both the Bitcoin and Nasdaq markets [were strong] Although it is assessed that it has shown an upward trend, the same applies to Nvidia and various other tech stocks. However, that overall rise was the first wave phase—the phase where the wave began.
The correction in the recent period is a wave, and the upward phase for 2024 that we are currently discussing is the third major wave phase. This is the most important point. It is okay if short-term time analysis or time frame analysis is wrong. What is important is that the fact that we are in the third major wave phase in 2024 means that a larger rise will occur than during the first wave phase of 2023.
In the Ely wave pattern, the third wave, and specifically the section where the third wave of the third is in progress, is the point where the strongest rise can be discussed. Even if such a rise does not occur, the third wave section is always a zone where a strong buying perspective is taken. Similarly, throughout 2024, SOXL will demonstrate the market's rise in the form of a total of five waves, encompassing the entire third major wave phase.
Furthermore, even after the third wave rise, following a period of correction in the fourth wave, through an additional fifth wave rise... We have been consistently stating that we will be challenging ourselves to reach 100 copies by the end of 2024, by the first half of 2025. I will wrap up today's video here. Thank you.
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