저자: 아인 · 한국인
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나스닥 파동 분석상 1월 초 단기 조정(TQQQ 약 50.38, 나스닥 선물 약 17,000pt 부근) 후 반등, 1~3월 상승 및 TQQQ 약 80달러 목표를 제시. 달러인덱스는 단기 저점 경신 후 반등, 미국채 10년 금리는 단기 반등 후 2024년 8월경 3%대까지 하락 전망. 1월 매수, 3월·8월 매도 전략을 제안.
다듬은 글
Hello, let's take a look at the current Nasdaq market conditions. In today's video, we will cover the analysis of the Nasdaq Composite Index, TQQQ response strategies, the Dollar Index, and Treasury yields. You have all worked very hard this year, and I hope there will be many more good things next year.
Before you watch the video, please give it a like. Now, let's proceed with the Nasdaq analysis. Ah, this chart is the hourly chart for the Nasdaq Composite Index. After a continuous upward wave through July, the Nasdaq reversed the market through a five-wave correction. I mentioned the conclusion of the first W XY xz Paroy wave at the end of October.
I explained that the overall correction proceeded as a triple-tree pattern, consisting of a total of five waves. I predicted that a third wave rise would emerge, surpassing the peak of the first wave, and that third wave would then trend upward in the medium to long term in the form of five waves. While stating that the first wave concluded precisely in the triple-tree pattern at the end of October, I will discuss buy contracts not only for Nasdaq futures but also for TQQQ and SXL.
As I mentioned, I advised buying TQQQ at exactly $30, and the rise has continued up to $52. Now, regarding what will happen going forward, I will explain based on TQQQ. Starting from January 1st, the first upward wave proceeded, resulting in a total rise of 160% to 190%. Then, mentioning the conclusion of the corrective wave, a 70% rise has occurred.
The current zone is one where a short-term retracement could occur, but I do not expect such a retracement to be significant. Now, this is not a retracement of the entire rise; you should not look from this point, but from here. As a retracement of this rise, the upward movement of the wave flows similarly to the wave or extends longer than the wave.
Looking at the ratios, the sell target for this wave is around $80. Currently, a total of five waves are in progress to continue this red wave, and the analysis I presented in recent videos is precisely this analysis of small waves. Regarding the mid-to-long-term wave, for the final climb to $80 in the third wave...
There is no change; however, within the process of such an uptrend, there are specific detailed movements. Yes, the point that it will reach over $70 by March in the mid-to-long term remains unchanged, and both the Nasdaq and TQQ are flowing in a highly reliable pattern. To state the conclusion first, the buy signals over January 2nd and 3rd will turn profitable by the end of January.
Conversely, a short-term correction may occur until January 2nd. On the Nasdaq futures 1-hour chart, a correction in an A-B-C pattern to approximately 17,000 points is possible. Based on the Nasdaq, a decline of about 0.5 to 0.1%, 1%, or about 0.6% is possible; based on the TQQQ, a correction to 50.38 is possible, which could result in a correction of about -2% in your account or DQQ daily return.
The question is whether you will wait to attempt a rebound or sell and try buying again. If it proceeds in this A-B decline, January 2nd It could continue until midnight. In other words, buying on January 2nd presents a highly attractive entry point. Looking at the overall picture, a short-term high may have been reached based on the current level of 51.
In terms of price, a correction could occur to somewhere between 50, 4, and 10.6 dollars. This correction could involve a pullback over about one to two days. Regarding the counting, it will not break 48. Yes, without breaking 48, it will move out to draw another wave in an upward correction pattern.
In other words, this wave is derived from the overall 1, 2, and 3 waves. Since I have consistently explained the detailed counting of sub-waves through membership videos, you should likely understand this part. The key is that the scope of the correction will differ depending on whether you define the starting point of this upward wave here, here, or here.
In my case, looking at the first Nasdaq composite chart, I see that after the five waves, there is the first upward wave, the second upward wave, and the third, fourth, and fifth waves have not yet fully emerged. Since this is a perspective, if you are seeing a correction this large as a retracement of the entire rise from here, you should view it as five waves having formed up to this level.
However, it is difficult to view the current section as having five waves; it looks like nothing more than a new wave. That is why I drew two black trend lines at this point and mentioned that a rebound would occur once again from that position. This is wave 1 and wave 2, and now we are in the category of wave 3.
It is a market where the waves are being drawn again as sub-waves and impulse waves. Is a short-term pullback possible? The mid-to-long-term trend remains upside. So, if you look at the flow through previous videos, I mentioned a rise to 41.7. In today's video, I mentioned that a short-term pullback could occur based on the 52 level.
We are seeing a pattern where it rises again after a slight first correction (wave 1). So, if you look at the flow of the entire mid-wave 2 on the TQQQ 4-hour chart in this video, within wave 2, we see the first 1 and 2, and then again 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. It forms a 3rd wave, and I view this as a red wave in the form of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, moving from around $80 to approximately March.
If you have been watching my videos consistently, you will likely understand the content easily. The point is that while it may pull back for a day or two, if it does, it becomes a good buying entry point. If the correction proceeds significantly, it could rise from this level until January 10th. However, whether it reaches the 10th or not depends on whether it breaks the low of this bearish candle.
Therefore, whether this correction is a short-term pullback followed by a rise, or if it breaks this level, the market will flow into a 3rd wave after the conclusion of the overall A, B, and C levels, following the first phase of the rise (Upward Wave 1) and the second phase of the correction (Upward Wave 2).
All results will be revealed in the first week of January. Conversely, if you proceed with buying during the first week of January, starting from January 1st, you will definitely turn a profit by the end of January. Since I always use the same expression, I believe you can understand this. Let's proceed with the analysis of the Dollar Index.
The Dollar Index... Last year, the mid-to-long-term triangular convergence pattern that has existed since 1990 was broken. And because we confirmed this short-term upward impulse in the dollar index, I was able to predict a rise in the NAS alongside the dollar index correction. However, I view the probability of the dollar index ultimately breaking through its high as high, so there will be significant volatility in currency values.
As the index rises, this will affect the currency market, currency value, inflation, and the overall landscape; I have been saying that this will ultimately have a positive impact on crypto. Looking at the short-term trend, the dollar index is still in a position where it can renew its low. I mentioned a dollar correction at that position after the first upward wave had fully emerged.
It is reasonable to view the current zone as heading to break the previous low. Since the dollar index has fallen almost to the vicinity of the previous low, I am looking at a pattern where it breaks through definitively before rising, rather than going up from here. The chart you are currently viewing is a 3-day chart.
The index can renew its low. The first upward corrective wave, an irregular flat correction, followed by a rebound, then a C decline that broke the low, totaling 1 a The market will likely move toward a rise in waves B, C, 2, and 3. This is how I view the mid-to-long-term trend of the dollar index. I am stating that the fluctuations of the index do not directly affect the stock market in a coupled manner.
We are currently in a position where we expect further declines from March to February. A technical rebound lasting a few hours or days is possible. If you look at Treasury yields, they are also in a position where a rebound is anticipated. I expect them to fall again after the rebound; similarly, Treasury yields do not necessarily reflect the fluctuations of the stock market in a coupled manner.
I am emphasizing the time lag. Now, regarding Treasury yields, I previously stated that they would fall from 5.3% to the low 4% range. Currently, Treasury yields have continued to decline, undergoing a correction to 4.1% and 4.09%. It proceeded exactly as I mentioned, and at the time of the 4% level, I predicted it would rise to 5.3%.
Therefore, I predicted that the TMF would drop to $38. For those holding TMFs, this is a short-term profit-taking zone. So... Regarding the TMF, while it could fall again after a rebound in the current range, a rebound in Treasury yields is expected within one to two months. You should consider the next two weeks or so.
Overall, I forecast a mid-to-long-term downward trend; therefore, I view the Nasdaq market as likely to rise in the mid-to-long term as well. Treasury yields and the Nasdaq index eventually flow in a decoupling pattern. The stock market rose because interest rates fell, and I mentioned that this rise in Treasury yields is part of a total wave.
It is not just a brief drop, but a position where it could fall for about a year. Waves 1, 2, 3, and 4 represent a triangular convergence, and Wave 5 represents the peak. The current downward trend in Treasury yields could fall to the 3% range by August 2024. However, we are currently at a point where a short-term technical rebound and a rebound in Treasury yields are occurring.
Even if there is a rebound, I expect Treasury yields to fall again, eventually dropping to 3.1% or the low 3% range. Yes, that period is almost in August 2024. It will unfold exactly as I mentioned. So, please take this into account when planning your fund management for next year. You all have cycles where large sums of money come in or go out, right?
So, considering those factors, please verify the trends through March and August. Ultimately, the meaning of a renewed decline until August is that the Nasdaq will have reached a significantly higher peak by then. Therefore, you should respond with a buying perspective in January, consider a first sell in March, and a second sell in August.
You can set up your seed fund management for 2024 in this way. I have been consistently stating that I forecast a strong bull market in 2024. I have discussed the mid-to-long-term trends regarding the dollar index and government bond yields, and I have also discussed short-term trading strategies through Nasdaq futures and TQQQ analysis.
There might be a pullback today, but since there is a possibility that it could rise immediately without even such a dip, I suggest you place your current holdings just slightly and buy again around January 2nd . If you proceed, I predict that the selling price at the end of January will see another upward wave, reaching a higher high by mid-January and allowing you to seek profits.
I will wrap up Friday's video here and see you in the next one. There will be no video uploads on January 1st and 2nd, but starting around the 3rd, I will resume uploading full videos with analyses of various stocks. Thank you for your hard work this year.
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