저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 텔라닥(TDOC)은 라보고 인수 손상차손과 적자 확대로 사실상 돈을 태우고 있으니 피해야 한다는 주장이다. 실적 측면: 1분기 매출은 전년 대비 25% 증가한 약 5억 6,500만 달러지만, 연간 가이던스는 24~25억 달러 수준이며 주당순손실은 약 -43달러로 악화되었다고 설명. 비용 구조: 광고비는 1억 3,300만 달러(전기 9,000만 달러)로 늘었고 일반관리비는 1억 4,000만 달러 수준. 높은 매출총이익률이라는 강세 논리는 이 비용 문제로 상쇄된다고 봄. 라보고 인수 및 손상차손: 2020년 11월 라보고를 185억 달러에 인수한 것이 최고점 밸류에이션이었다고 비판. 이번 분기 66억 달러 영업손실 중 대부분은 비현금성 영업권 손상차손이며, 회사 시가총액(약 90억 달러)보다 큰 규모의 자산 손상이 발생했다고 강조. 현금흐름 및 재무: 영업현금흐름은 더 나쁘게 나타나며 분기 적자가 전년 18달러에서 31달러로 확대. 영업권은 140억 달러에서 79억 달러로 감소. 전환사채 약 15억 달러 규모가 주가 하락 시 부담이 될 수 있다고 지적. 경영진: 주식보상비용 6,040만 달러(전년 8,600만 달러 대비 감소)가 여전히 크다며 경영진 교체가 필요하다고 주장. 기술적 분석: 장기 하락 추세가 지속 중이며 주가 33달러 부근이 지지선일 수 있으나 강한 하락 모멘텀이 있어 회피 권고. 주가는 장중 약 56달러에서 34달러 부근으로 급락. 투자 조언: 텔라닥은 피하고, 보유 중이라면 손절 기준을 세우라고 권고. 매매 논리는 과거 1년 넘게 일관되게 약세 입장을 유지했다는 점에 기반.
다듬은 글
in november of 2020 teledoc health bought lavongo for 18.5 billion dollars today teledoc health is worth nine billion dollars on today's show we're going to be talking about lighting money on fire because that's exactly what's been happening over at teledoc health for the last year what is going on investors hopefully you guys are doing well out there and if you've taken my advice and to have steer cleared for this company for over a year now on the channel despite the number of numerous comments that i get every time i post a bearish video about teledoc well you've done very well because over the last year everybody who have ignored the very clear as day financials which we'll walk through on today's show we'll take a look at how this money company has lit over 6.6 billion not million 6.6 billion dollars worth of equity just over the past quarter this is a company that's worth nine billion dollars they just lit 6.6 billion dollars worth of your money as a shareholder on fire we'll talk about it from a financial perspective but we'll also look at this from a technical perspective get your skis on or your snowboard because you're going to be sliding down one of the steepest downward hills that we've seen here on the stock market in a long time and that is the teledux stock chart this thing is i can't believe where this thing's at it's down here at about 34 per share that's after trading closer to 56 dollars per share earlier today the stock is down over 38 in the after hours because when you light 6.6 billion dollars on fire and your company is worth 9 billion well yeah you're gonna get absolutely toasted from a financial perspective i can't believe they haven't fired management over at teledoc health at this point we'll talk about that more here in a second but this obviously is on the heels of a disastrous year and we came in with our earnings in q1 and they're a complete disaster revenue increased by 25 year-over-year to about 565 million dollars but what is having people really run for the hills is the full-year guidance coming in at just 2.4 to 2.5 billion dollars the earnings per share or should we say the losses per share going to a balloon to a negative 43 dollars per share that is a loss per share of 43 a lot of people ask me especially newer investors you know usually like younger kids like what is a stock when i buy a stock what do i get well you get a ownership of earnings and in the case of teledoc health you own negative 43 dollars per share in earnings that is an absolute disaster let's get over these numbers we had that 565 on that earnings side last year we're sitting at 453 again you kind of mid 20s growth on that it's a high margin business that is what the bull case argument is is the fact that this company has really low cost of revenue okay off 187 million dollars in cost they generated this 565 but what i've told you time and time again literally every quarter for over a year now when we review teledoc health's earnings okay every quarter over a quarter for over a year now what i've been telling you with the stock is it's not the high gross margins that's the problem okay it's the advertising spend that came in at 133 million versus 90 million the previous period it's your general administrative expenses which came in at 104 million dollars when you generate just 565 million dollars worth of revenue and it's also the fact that this company bought another healthcare company literally at the top of the market and a peak valuation they bought lavongo for 18.5 billion dollars do you think the executives over at lavongo are sipping their my ties in the caribbean as we speak yes they absolutely are and they're probably looking down at their brand new 24 karat gold sky dweller as well because teledoc gave them the most premium valuation and we've seen in the most recent quarter this company had to write that investment down when you pay 18.5 billion dollars for a company two years ago and your total company is worth 9.3 billion dollars well yeah the cpas are gonna tell you you gotta write that investment down on the balance sheet and they had to make a goodwill impairment of 6.6 billion dollars now this is non-cash to the quarter you'll see evidence of that when we get to the cash flows but it obviously has a tremendous impact on the stock as we see in the after hours the stock is down over 35 so don't let the people tell you well they overpaid for levongo but it's a non-cash charge no it absolutely destroys you as a shareholder so when you see companies like microsoft when you see companies out there like google and all these companies with lots of cash start making acquisitions well they better be good ones okay and then when you're talking about a company like teledoc it made like one of the largest purchases by any company in that year well you better hit a home run and they absolutely swung and missed on that one we see the loss from operations in the most recent quarter up over 6.6 billion again this is a nine billion dollar company and they lost six point six billion dollars in the quarter again the vast majority of that is tied to the 6.6 so if you want to strip that out and you can when we look at cash flows we'll strip it out but they lost 69 million in the quarter and again last year they lost 84.
so quarter of recorder getting a little bit better we're essentially break even not quite there yet but they're almost running kind of break even operations over at levongo but management just showed you how idiotic they are by closing on that lavongo deal for 18.5 billion dollars the fact that they have jobs and they haven't been fired and this management team hasn't been completely overhauled in the fact that they paid themselves 86 million dollars in compensation last year they had the decency at least the slight decency to shareholders to reduce the share based compensation from 86 million down to 60 million we're not talking about for the whole year we're talking about in a quarter where you burned through 6.6 billion dollars of equity you still had the audacity to give out 60.4 million dollars worth of stock well i guess there's a small win for investors there but i can't believe these people have jobs now you pull down that massive net loss okay again it has that 6.6 million dollars of goodwill impairment you get to add that back in because that's non-cash because guess where the cash went it went over here to levongo okay and so now you got to recognize it on your balance sheet and you get down here to net cash provided by your operating activities actually paints an even worse story so even when you factor in this six point let's just ignore it that they bought a company at the peak of the market for 18.5 billion it's like the people that bought a house in 07 or people that paid millions of dollars for nfts that are now worth hundreds of dollars well it still doesn't paint that great of a story because last year on a quarterly basis you lost 18.
now you lost 31 okay so it's not getting any better over at teledoc health and quite frankly i wouldn't expect it to get any better anytime soon from a balance sheet perspective they still have a pretty well capitalized balance sheet that goodwill obviously had to get sliced in half you see it went down from 14 billion down to the 7.9 so your total assets went down tremendously obviously year over year when something like that happens from a liability perspective still a really financially secure company they have quite a bit of senior note convertible senior notes on here we'll see considering how much this stock price continues to decline if these people want to convert to equity or they want to convert some other way this company certainly would be in a difficult financial position if they had to come up with this 1.5 billion dollars anytime soon from the cash perspective that's certainly gonna weigh on shares in the future as well now from a technical perspective there's not a whole lot to see here other than you've been on this massive downtrend and you don't expect this downright downward trend to stop anytime soon sure there's areas of support down here at 33 per share but we probably said that at 85 and we probably set it at 50 as well i would steer clear of this stock absolutely clear of this stock there's no reason to buy these types of companies that make these idiotic decisions to buy companies at the top of the market for 18.5 billion dollars and now a year later the company is worth the toll company teledoc and levongo combined are now worth less than nine billion dollars this company is not making any money they're not guiding to any types of profits their cash flows are not only negative but their worst quarter over quarter guys there's so many better investments than a stock like this quite frankly just cash sitting under your mattress is a better investment than teledoc health if you've held this one for any length of time take it as a learning lesson and learn how to get out of stocks and set stop losses look i've gotten out of a lot of stocks this last year that i actually really like and are wildly profitable but at some point you gotta learn when to get out when the negative momentum is there certainly in a stock like that it's been present for over a year now that was teledoc health hopefully guys have a great day good luck with your investments
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