저자: Kevin · 외국인
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NKLA(니콜라)는 숏셀러 리포트로 급락했으며 기술 시연이 조작됐다는 의혹이 제기됨. 발언자는 니콜라를 0으로 보고 매도. DNB(Dave & Buster's)는 comp 매출 -85%, 8월 -75%, 현금 소진 우려로 전량 매도. 펠로톤은 2022년 주당 약 100달러 시나리오를 제시했으나 80달러 이하에서만 매수 관심, 현재 보유 유지·추가 매수 안 함. 테슬라는 보수적 밸류에이션 기준 약 479달러 시나리오로 보유 유지.
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do a roundup of four stocks that you should pay attention to or potentially not pay attention to i'm gonna do this in a relatively quick style so here we go this is not a full breakdown of all these stocks so i'm assuming you already know something about these four companies but i'm going to give you some updated expectations and things that i'm doing uh in the meantime if you want one free stock link for weeble down below they will at the bare minimum you get eight dollars for depositing a hundred dollars and you get to take all that money back if you want and check out the link for life insurance down below you can get life insurance in just as little as five minutes okay let's get started first we're going to talk about nicola folks a short seller came out and just absolutely wrote the most nasty hit piece on nicola that ended up leading nicola to drop as much as 13 today it ended up closing around 11 down but then fell the extra two percent again in after hours nicola got slapped hard today and it was off probably because of this letter and here's the thing short sellers do this in fact there was a short seller i think about eight weeks ago who did a hit piece on end phase and they said we're suing end phase for securities fraud and you know fraudulent accounting uh that this that dropped the stock to like 37 and i'm like that's a short-term buying opportunity for a good stock like end phase i'mma buy it nicola i might have different opinions on let's go ahead and just take a quick glance at some of the overviews here because it's nuts take a look at this this is the hit piece look at how this starts out today we reveal why we believe nicola is an intricate fraud built on dozens of lies we've never seen this level of deception at any public company especially of this size it's like that rhymes all in a desperate attempt to catch up to tesla and to harness the ev wave we examine how nikola got its early start and we reveal how in the face of growing skepticism over the functionality of its truck its hydrogen fuel truck which that's the big thing they're trying to expand battery technology and hydrogen technology they say that trevor one of the executives and the founder misled people based on the functionality of the truck because nicolas staged a video called nicola one in motion which showed the semi truck cruising on a road at a high rate of speed but our investigation of the site and text messages from a former employee revealed that the video was an elaborate ruse nicola had the truck towed up to a top of a hill on a remote stretch of road and simply filmed it rolling down the hill folks some of the stuff in here is harsh like you know they argue here that nicola was supposed to have some sort of proprietary battery technology and instead now they're using gm's technology with the partnership they announced with gm which when they announced the partnership with gm i i sold 80 of my shares because i don't believe in gm as an innovative company i didn't base my cell two days ago when nicola ran up on the announcement of that partnership based on this because this letter just came out but this is interesting they accuse and these are all allegations but they accuse nikola saying they have in-house power inverters you know for like solar and then they show pictures of the nikola building and go we don't see any solar panels on the roof from like drone flyovers and how they cover up the other inverters they have or inverters they have inside their factory from other companies with masking tape cover up the label of them then they show we present behind oh this was a good one we present behind the scenes photo photos showing that nikola had an electricity cable snaked up from underneath the stage into the truck during one of their presentations for their semi truck in order to falsely claim the nikola one's electric system was fully functional and then they even had an artist stencil on h2 and zero emission hydrogen electrical electric vehicle on the side of the car these are some pretty big allegations and uh yeah i mean here they show not only the uh sticker but then they also or the stencil i suppose they also show what is this odd cable here attached to your truck why why is there why is there a cable attached to your truck that's that's odd which you have to admit and then they hear they say that uh images that were sort of on the technology in here were all pre-loaded uh sort of screenshots basically of static at websites bad like harsh here here are the screenshots where they go uh here uh okay here's the the text message which kevin is not me i promise it's not me see nicola chief engineer kevin ling i asked kevin how it was going to work and he said they were going to tow it to the top of a super low grade hill and then let it roll down and so what this company actually did is apparently they went out to the site see this is what the video kind of looked like and it's really hard to tell that that's a sloped road it's not like it looks like it's on a hill in fact here's kind of just another angle where it's difficult to tell it's on a hill but apparently they actually went to the stretch of the road where it has an average grade of 2.85 percent with the first mile having a three percent grade so it gets a little more speed and this is what it actually looks like uh because their private investigators vehicle was parked up top the heel up top the hill and uh kind of demonstrated it really kind of nasty hit piece i have to say here and i mean there's some juicy things in here i think i probably just showed most of the juice you know for example here's a satellite image showing nope no solar panels you said there were solar panels they even went as far as attacking the guy's brother saying here's uh here's the brother who apparently has stock and nicola worth 110 million dollars and is apparently the leader of infrastructure development for hydrogen infrastructure and they show pictures of him in hawaii at his prior job doing concrete work and concrete uh sort of epoxy flakes so uh not not really good not really good in fact here's that pro inverter see they uh they took this picture here and said this is the actual part showing what brand this inverter is for a battery and then here is the nikola demonstration of that inverter like why why is there tape on there now in fairness we don't know that this is a nicola but hey like it's a head scratcher okay and some of the things you know with some of nicolas history about oh yeah we've got all these prey orders for semi-trucks yeah but they're free pre-orders oh yeah you know some of the things have led people to sort of scratch their heads on nicola now the biggest head scratcher for me for nicola has always been autonomy if nicola doesn't have their own proprietary automation i'm just not interested i'm making bets on a company like well tesla because of the automation they have and that exponential learning that you're getting in those tesla cars you're not buying a tesla in my opinion because it's the highest quality car it's not like the most perfectionist it's not like a mercedes or a bmw but the automation is on point it's absolutely unbelievable now that brings us over to the next stock let's talk dave and busters so here's the thing i listened to the dave buster's earnings call and i uh well i also of course read their earnings release i had a few hopes for this company dave and buster's actually well i had a lot of hopes for it one i had hoped that dave and busters would partner with malls to say we're going in more malls we're going to bring the mall back we've got people coming back this is all going great families are coming back you know people are spending money it's all going good they're watching uh you know the sports which are finally starting to come back they're watching sports that are at our uh you know bars they're coming and spending money again they're using the gaming machines again in areas that have reopened and well not much of that is happening and this is very very very depressing in fact comp store sales so like if you're comparing this year to last year we're down 85 at their stores and this guy this analyst that jeffries on the conference call said hey you know i'm just wondering like what are your sales for august how have your comp store sales been for august because this earnings report only covers may june and july it ended august 2nd and this jeffries the analyst jeffrey's by the way a company that's you know they put some money into dave and buster's anyway uh like a good amount anyway jeffrey's guy asked that and i'm like oh that's a really good question because it kind of gives you a hint into quarter three dave and busters and the analysts or not the analysts the executives are like yeah well for august we're down 75 and i'm like oh gosh this isn't good because in august you had a lot more stores open for longer and they're still down 75 not only that but the other thing that's bad for dave and busters and i didn't write this part down but they said that the people coming to their stores right now are younger and have a lower income and are more male aka you're getting less families you're getting more probably you know teenagers or maybe college age people who aren't spending big uh you know here five-year-old go buy whatever you want kind of thing so very interesting this change in demographic is also not going to be very good for dave and busters that was their assumption i'm not trying to be ageist that was their assumption that that change in demographic isn't beneficial to dave and busters they're trying to get everybody in the family coming to dave and buster's not just be you know the younger person's hangout sure they want that as well but they also want your corporate parties your corporate events not seeing many of those they want the regular sort of bar crowd coming to hang out hey you know 15 year old jimmy go play the halo game or whatever while we drink beer like i get that because that was me i was 15 year old kevin watching or playing the halo and the little you know thing that goes around in the circle trying to win the whoop whoop jackpot right that was me that's why i love dave and busters i'm getting like tears in my eyes thinking about it because i miss those days days were simple back then here i am reading the stupid earnings for dave mel whatever the point is not good uh for dave and busters but the other things that were not good for dave and busters like you'll fall off your chair on this one first of all not this part but i'm going to say this first as a preface they sounded dead like the executives they sounded like zombies on the call they sounded so defeated right after this or the dave and busters want to listen to the peloton one and these people were like chipper and excited and like we love this company we are we're like don't call us a covet company we're not a covet company we're here to stay like that was peloton okay dave and busters was like yeah yeah we we just don't know like i could just imagine their boardroom meeting uh how many months do we got left it's not good it's not good uh so anyway this was a big one okay they said this is so bad for dave and busters they said quote society is now used to eating at home and watching tv at home we have no idea when they're gonna come back oops that's not good so for nicola i said for nicola i'm out like shark tank i'm out damn busters that didn't sound good but i wasn't out yet now in fairness to dave and busters they've got a good amount of cash they've got about 224 million dollars in cash which is great and they've got some more stores opening up again but one of the analysts said hey like you said your cash burn right now is 3.3 million dollars per week but isn't that going to change in january when you start paying back all the like forbearance stuff that you took and they're like yeah yeah so in other words in my opinion their cash burn should probably be closer to six uh and this was what one of the analysts was asking as well uh that their their cash burns should be closer to about six million dollars per week which means dave and buster's at a six million dollar burn per week right now has about 37 weeks left of cash uh which divided by four ish gives us about nine months which means dave buster's is gonna be out of money by around may of next year which maybe things will be booming again but they gotta get customers back to their stores so they do have some room to breathe here but this is the part that made me like fall out of my chair okay after them talking about how society is used to eating at home and watching stuff at home then they were asked by an analyst okay well what are you gonna do about it and here's what they said well we're gonna start investing into cloud computing games and we're gonna launch a radio station you know for the stores uh we're gonna change the vibe of the stores we're gonna you know have like djs and and maybe we'll do like giveaways and and partnerships and stuff and i'm thinking myself y'all did it's like those are terrible ideas that's not what dave and busters is i don't i don't go to dave and buster's for a dj you go for some food you go to play some games you go to have fun with your friends like i i maybe i'm missing something i think all those things are stupid i don't care about the radio station i don't care about the djs i don't care about the giveaways i mean like i want giveaways but i don't care about the giveaways as an investor uh not not excited here not happy at all and uh for the lack of enthusiasm and for the stupid ideas i'm out i am reducing nicola and dave and buster's to zero it was nice while it lasted it didn't go anywhere while it lasted but at least a lot of us were able to sell again where we bought in which was nice because obviously they've ridden a recovering wave up here uh had hope didn't work out next okay speaking of next let's talk about peloton peloton is next up on deck so peloton blew earnings expectations uh beat expectations initially fell like six percent but then they started talking about their forecasts their guidance for 2021 and i don't know if this is all hype but their forecasts were really really positive and good i mean they were they were jazzed about the potential for future growth of their company uh and and that's really really good so uh what i did is i went ahead and took their numbers and i wanted to make this nice and simple and easy so i took some of their numbers and then made a spreadsheet on these figures so these are just some of the numbers that i was using and looking at just want to quickly show you here that their first quarter is their biggest and this makes sense for any fitness company the first quarter is going to have way more revenue than generally the middle summer months i mean look at this in march the quarter ending at the beginning of 2019 they had almost 100 million dollars more in revenue well they did 100 million dollars more in revenue than the uh second and third quarter of 2019 so they've got a lot of fluctuation now here they actually had more revenue in the second quarter than they did in the first quarter which was really really good i mean that's an impressive sign of growth so if this company this is how i base the numbers i assumed that maybe this company can keep growth going post covered that's the big asterisk is can they keep growth going post coven and can they double their quarterly consistently and so if we do that we get to about four billion dollars in revenues per year that's assuming 500 million dollars in revenues per quarter and then i took about a fifth of that for subscription revenue that would leave this company making about five billion dollars if they make five billion dollars with a higher margin because they just introduced the cheaper bike they introduced a cheaper treadmill so their margin is going down a little bit their expenses are going up a bit uh ignore some of these percentages here uh those don't really matter for our purposes they're expecting to have somewhere around a 41 42 margin so i did this in reverse and i looked at expenses here uh anyway bottom line if they can generate these sales and get to 5 billion in sales it wouldn't be unreasonable for them after all of their expenses especially if they kept some sales marketing and administration and research and development if they kept some of those a little bit more constrained and they just sort of naturally grew it wouldn't be unreasonable for this company to net somewhere around 830 million dollars if they net around 830 million dollars they might in the future at the end of 2022 have somewhere around an earnings per share of about 251 which at 40 times earnings puts them at about 100 a share and this is a very bullish thesis here this assumes this company is going to double more than double slightly more than double by the end of 2022 which hopefully the pandemic and everything is over then i don't know if they can pull that off if they can pull this off though my buy target for peloton is under 80.
and they just jumped up to 96 dollars a share uh you would have to really be bullish in my opinion to be buying them above eighty dollars right now i really liked peloton based on its last earnings under sixty dollars now i'm okay under 80 the more under 80 the better like if i see a 70 again i'd rather go bigger than because i don't know if they're going to be able to sustain these sorts of revenues this is peloton has a lot of growth baked into it so be careful investing in peloton over 80.
i'm in peloton and i'm staying in peloton but i'm not going to go heavier on peloton now let's talk about tesla so i made a new spreadsheet for tesla we'll just do this one pretty quick we've done this one frequently and a lot of people have been asking me for this because they say hey how can you value tesla like it's p e ratio it's so crazy it's forward p raise you like okay let's let's just do the numbers this is how i look at tesla so i did an updated spreadsheet on this i talked about this sort of in the money and finance course too and the stock course which is linked down below along with the other courses but anyway uh if we have a revenue per vehicle a tesla of about 50 000 and we end up getting to just 1.8 million cars delivered by the end of 2022 that's actually lower than we expect we really think we can get to about 2 million cars by the end of 2021 so i'm kind of doing like a middle of the road case scenario here i think tesla can deliver way more cars than this i think by the end of 22 we may be closer to three to four million cars delivered and produced why is produced and delivered it's the correct word order but let's just say they only get to 1.8 million vehicles in that case they're probably likely to see revenues of around these ranges around 100 billion dollars in total revenues we've got some margins they give us the margins i'm estimating that the expense uh you know their profit margin on the tesla sale vehicles is going to be somewhere around 25 that makes their expense ratio around 75 percent and you know i did some other estimates on other things we include the tax rate here i also included just to just to be like really conservative on tesla so to me this is a very conservative spreadsheet unlike the peloton one i'm going conservative here i also included a higher corporate tax rate in the event democrats sweep and raise corporate taxes so i changed this from 21 to 35 just to really buffer this you know elon musk he thinks the uh profit margin can go up to 30 percent which would create a lot more profit at tesla the corporate tax rate might go down if trump gets re-elected they might make more vehicles see him being really conservative on the spreadsheet on purpose by being conservative uh at a price of a price to earnings ratio in the future of 40 per share then in my opinion it would be reasonable for tesla to sell for somewhere around 479 at the end of 2022 this would be reasonable in a bearish scenario which that means if i invested today at say 380 i'd make about eight percent on my money this is uh this is to me bearish for tesla uh some people would say kevin you're still being way too optimistic and still way too bullish i don't think so i think you know i've got a lot of really worse cases built into this low on production numbers i mean we've got enough gigafactories to produce 500 000 vehicles at each gigafactory which should easily get us to 2 million vehicles so going with 1.8 by the end of 22 reasonable in my opinion the margin i was reasonable on the tax rate i'm trying to be conservative on the price to earnings ratio of 40.
i think that's fair for a company with all the autonomy that they have so this is this is to me a very fair estimate now just to do that maybe as well to peloton if we go ahead and adjust peloton we we pull up the peloton spreadsheet again and we go to hey you know what peloton you all had your run y'all were great but uh you know what well we're not going to say your revenues are going to double maybe maybe they'll go up but we're just going to go with 3 billion in revenue instead of 4 billion in revenue that's gonna be closer to around 700 mil consistent over the next two and a half years or at the end of the next two and a half years i could see that happening let's say they get their margin down a little bit uh so we'll reduce their expense ratio just a tad on on their fitness products so that's what i just did here we changed this to 3 billion we reduced their margin here a little bit but you know what let's say in order to get these sales and again ignore these percentages here in order to get these sales we're gonna have to up sales and marketing so let's add take sales and marketing to a billion dollars okay that puts us at a net of 20 mil oh that's that's going to be ugly i think maybe i shouldn't do sales and marketing at that high let's do sales and marketing at 650.
uh 65 let's change that to 650 there we go okay that leaves us with a net of somewhere around okay this is this is more reasonable that leaves us with a net of somewhere around 370 million dollars which would at a price to earnings ratio of 40 put the stock in about a 44 dollar stock that's around when i went heavy on this company so you can see there is a ton of growth baked into this company so if they don't meet their numbers and that's what i'm trying to show off here with the numbers if they don't meet their numbers it's not going to look good on the flip side tesla looks good even in in my opinion in more bearish scenarios so i'm going to hold my peloton but i'm not going to add to peloton i'm going to sell nicola i'm going to sell dnb they may go up in the future i don't care but i'm happy having tesla as one of my highest ratio stocks so there's your breakdown of these four stocks for the day i hope you appreciated this and found this insightful if you did please consider subscribing in the meantime have a great day you
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