저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
부동산 시장의 위기 조짐을 설명한다. 2020년 9월 임대료 지불률이 76.4%로 떨어졌고 연체 누적 약 210억 달러가 언급된다. 모기지 신용 공급도 위축되고 있다. 본인은 증시 대응으로 신용·마진 부채를 상환하고 있으며, 부동산에서는 임차인 심사 기준을 강화했다. 전반적 연체 폭발(강제퇴거 위기)은 20~25% 가능성으로 보고 있으며, 예정된 퇴거 증가로 3월·6월에 부동산 매물이 늘 것으로 본다. 과거 2018년 봄 하락 경고 사례도 언급한다.
다듬은 글
hey everyone meet kevin here the real estate crisis just got more dangerous and it's not good i want to talk about what these changes are what's happening and then i'm going to talk about new strategies that i'm using to protect myself some of these i haven't talked about on this channel before so i'm actually making some changes that i haven't made in over a decade now so which that makes me sound really old but anyway let's talk about what the heck is going on and get through this and of course remember you could stocks and making youtube videos let's start by the way on what the heck is happening first the national multifamily housing council's rent payment tracker basically some company that tracks what kind of rent payments people make found that 76.4 of apartment households made full of partial payments in september or by september 6th that's based on 11.4 million units which means out of 11.4 million units over two and a half million units didn't pay their rent on time in september now this might not sound ridiculously unbelievable because after all we're in a pandemic and there are a lot of people who are struggling with their rents right now but this is the real problem right here this is called an inflection point change why is it that in april we have slightly over 78 percent of tenants making their payments by the first week of the month and then in may we have a better month in june things are even better and then in july when we get to sort of resurgence of covid we see this large decline again okay not a surprise maybe people blew through their savings over here coinciding with the resurgence of covet boom people stopped making their payments again but wait a second why is it that when covid is now in substantially more or greater decline than we had in any of these prior months we're over here you know we're rising and then we had this kind of resurgence here why is it that now in september we have the substantial inflection point to the down right here folks this is the inflection point we've got to be concerned about now potentially this is because people are waiting for their fema unemployment boost but the reality is not everyone's on unemployment ah yeah we've got somewhere around 30 million people unemployed but we've got an unemployment rate of 8.4 percent which means the vast majority of people who owe rent are not on unemployment so why all of a sudden are we seeing this decline and this decline is in my opinion a concern especially when as a nation we're already 21 probably over now at this point over 21 billion dollars behind in rent this trend worsening is not good remember in real estate we have to watch for inflection points in stocks we just look and go that's what the charts doing today it's a little different right and i'm not trying to minimize stocks just for a different video okay i got a stock playlist for that stuff in real estate we have to look at these little indicators these the inflections i call them and start thinking to ourself what's going on we're going to talk more about that in just a moment but i've got another issue that i want to talk about problem number two is mortgage the mortgage market in general is tightening up especially since over 16 percent of fha loans are seriously delinquent and 7.1 of conventional loans are delinquent on their loans now in fairness most of these are in forbearance plans but what effect is this having on the mortgage market well it's causing the mortgage market to seize up and i shouldn't say c's up because that implies that it's not uh functioning anymore it's still functioning but it's only functioning for the people who are very capable of qualifying take a look at this chart this is the mortgage credit availability index brought to us by the mortgage bankers association and what we want to look at is yeah obviously we had this substantial covid decline where lenders start tightening their restrictions they raise credit requirements remember when banks raise credit requirements they're doing that to minimize risk they're lending with more down payments for example chase bump their down payment requirements right you see that tightening and that reduces the availability of mortgages that's not so much the problem the problem is when we zoom in over here we got another inflection point yeah mortgage credit was tightening but then we had this up but while a sudden in september the beginning here of september are we going down again in availability those are the things we have to be careful of we're seeing things starting to get better and then nope nope nope just kidding that's not good we have the same thing happen with rents so these are things that start pointing to to our real estate market and these can be early indicators the last time i started talking about early indicators and inflection points was at the beginning and uh probably somewhere around springtime 2018 when i said uh oh real estate's about to get smacked and it did real estate prices dropped like 12 in a matter of two months now i don't think that's what's going to happen now i'm going to talk about what i think is going to happen now i just want you to know these are the early signs that i start paying attention to okay so let's talk solutions and odds right it's always important to qualify these changes with odds and solutions so solution number one yes the real estate market is booming prices shot up 8.2 percent year over year there's low inventory your point a year-over-year increase of 82.2 by the way that's incredible for real estate especially since most real estate is leveraged the leveraged returns have been amazing over the last year but there's something to keep in mind when prices go up our risk levels go up when prices go down our risk levels go down that's reality but it's not how our brains work see our brains think ooh red bad ooh pain red portfolio value down sad instead well and by the way at the same time when we see green we feel validated right we get overconfident we go oh i made all this money today i made good investment decisions that's how our brain works but the opposite is true prices go up risk goes up so keep that in mind and so now is potentially a time to start thinking about and potentially acting on becoming more cautious and so i'm going to talk about one of the first changes i've made which i've alluded to already in the stock videos but the second change i'm making in real estate is something that i haven't talked about publicly in a very very long time so the first change is this morning in my money in stock group i mentioned that i'm taking a large portion of my available cash and i'm beginning to pay down credit lines and margin debt this is a smaller more recent change this isn't the bigger change that i'm making i'll talk about that in a moment the reason i'm doing this is because again prices are going up i want to have more credit availability when i pay down my credit lines i qualify for more real estate to buy which means i'm more primed to buy real estate when opportunities come up and i also have less interest that i'm paying every month which reduces my my cash outflows right minimizing my outflows is another way of basically increasing the cash that i have available and i kind of start moving into protection mode i'm also doing this with my margin lines so any margin that i have on stock every day i'm thinking to myself all right where where am i paying down margin today this is exactly the opposite of what i did in march in march in fact you could go back to my videos the first week of march i made videos and i said folks i'm pulling every credit line because banks might start freezing credit lines i'm taking on debt because now is the time to borrow when prices are low because risk is lower when prices are lower right so i started taking out all this money now now i'm doing the opposite so this this helps me be prepared for in the event that there are some special opportunities that come up here and i recommend the same for you so my first recommendation that might apply to you is pay off any debts that you have right now with a greater than five percent interest rate weeble margin pay it down robin hood margin pay it down credit cards student loans anything that's going to hurt your ability to qualify for a real estate loan pay it down cars whatever pay it down obviously credit cards now this is the more that's the more basic one but it's also very important because it's a big shift from what i had been doing so i wanted to mention it solution number two and this is not something that i have changed for the last 10 years i have had these same standards for the last 10 years lauren and i knock on wood have never had an eviction but folks we are making a change solution number two this is the big change biggest one that i've made in a while lauren and i are increasing our credit and tenant screening standards on august 31st i put a property on the market in california with my new screening standards and i had three applicants come in immediately and i rented the property within 24 hours and a tenant moved in september first they were selling their house and they started moving in september 1st it was probably one of the fastest properties that i went from renovated to rented that i've ever done and that's because i've gotten my systems really well down which you can do as well but the big change that i'm making is i'm making it harder for tenants to qualify for my properties even in a pandemic rather than lowering my criteria which some folks have suggested hey it's a pandemic why don't we lower our screening criteria to appeal to a wider audience no i'm actually following what the banks are doing the banks are increasing their credit uh screening criteria and their qualifying screening criteria and so that's what i'm doing as well instead of and this is just one example i talk about all my different ways that i screen tenants there i mean there are like 15 to 16 different forms of tenant leverage that we use they're all in my link down below a lot of people bundle up from the investing course and get that one but anyway i'm now increasing my credit criteria and that's just one of the forms of leverage there are many many more uh from 700 to a range of 720 to 725 that means anybody with under a 725 or 720 it's gonna be flexible right around that point there we will not rent two anymore which is incredible because we do have a lot of tenants that apply with you know 700 705 710 but i'm doing this to minimize my risk that might mean i might have to drop my rent a little bit to get a tenant that qualifies for this although i didn't have that issue last time i rented the property for more money than i thought i was going to get uh and i got three tenants all of the tenants had over a 750 score and i made my screening criteria very clear in the ad so i didn't even have people apply who didn't have that criteria it kind of makes my life easier anyway every one of my tenants right now is making on-time payments and part of that i chalk up two very stringent credit screening criteria and the other forms of tenant leverage so yes that means i am tightening during the pandemic when it seems like we should be loosening why would i do that i'm doing that because i want to be ready to strike next year the funny thing about real estate is when you start looking for deals even if you're brand new you end up finding deals at some point and when you find a deal you got to be ready you in fact you can watch a complete video that i made on how to buy your first rental property some very profitable tricks for you on buying your first deal i'll link that down below for now though we have to be realistic with the data there's you know i i really believe we're only about 20 to 25 likely to see a full-blown eviction crisis leading into a foreclosure crisis mostly because homeowner equity is so high and consistently increasing however i do believe that evictions are going to lead to more real estate inventory in march and june and the last thing that i want is come march or june less of my tenants paying rent and less cash available or less credit available to qualify for those deals and again i'm not going to bypass a deal now if a deal comes up on the market today i will be there i will check it out and i will play bulb but in the meantime i'm doing whatever i can to make sure i'm not going nutso on uh you know stock options while the market's at all-time highs to uh blow all my margin i'm reducing and so these to me are two very big shifts to help me prepare for more opportunities i hope this helps you thank you so much if you have questions feel free to leave a comment join the public discord you can join for free the discord if you want to chat in there tag me if you have questions you could obviously leave a comment get up to 1600
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