저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
연준 파월의 인플레이션 '일시적' 입장 철회와 테이퍼링 조기 종료·금리 인상 가능성을 시장 급락 원인으로 지목. 모더나 백신 효과 저하와 레게네론 치료제 효능 감소 보도도 투자심리 악화 요인으로 언급. 다우 -1.7%, S&P -1.6%, 나스닥 -1.74%, 러셀 -2.64%; 비트코인은 5.9만 달러 부근에서 되밀림. 개인적으로 비트코인 일부를 5.37~5.44만 달러 부근에서 재매수했다고 밝힘. 향후 시장은 추가 조정 가능성을 시사.
다듬은 글
dang it j pal you just gotta you gotta give us the hope you give us the hope that it's all just transitory and then you take it away from us hey everyone me kevin here oh my gosh this is the kind of day to bring out the diamond hand cup and gold dang i'm glad i've been raising some cash because whoa jay pal is really good at coming into a hot market and giving you the finger that's what he did in february of 2021.
now we know he came around to uh rescue us in 2020 okay but that's different that was 2020 okay february of 2021 the market starts falling everybody's expecting jake powell to come into the rescue and he's like yeah ass evaluations are high market tanks now after like a year and a half of don't worry inflation's transitory it's time to retire transitory and potentially end the taper months earlier now jerome powell did not specify exactly when that's because he needs to discuss this with his fellow comrades over at the federal reserve in the december meeting which which comes up in the next few months i'm sorry in the next few weeks here now what's really interesting though is the market's reaction because the market is actually finally not happy about something and the market has been very very good about buying the dip on every little bit of news i mean friday everybody freaked out because i'm a which turned out to be a nothing burger on uh on the belief that essentially the impact of the omicron would be relatively mild on people that yeah even if vaccines were slightly less efficacious people with omicron appear to have mild symptoms like extreme tiredness or uh or other symptoms that are just not as severe as something that you might see with a delta variant and this makes sense to some degree because the more mutations you have the spike protein of a virus sometimes that could make a virus more contagious sometimes it can make a virus more combative but it could also go in the other direction where it becomes more contagious but less effective inside your body and therefore less damaging which is obviously a good thing now over the weekend everybody's like don't worry don't worry in addition to the symptoms being fine the vaccines will work and even if they need a little fine-tuning we'll have a new vaccine by march 1st well great that's wonderful but then mr moderna himself the ceo of moderna this morning says yeah we're expecting a material drop in the effectiveness of our vaccine and scientists are basically in our office saying yeah this is not good this is really bad and it doesn't help that regeneron this is the uh cocktail you essentially go on in the event that you get sick with covid you're not vaccinated you're basically gonna die and they give this to you to try to save your life uh has also seen a material drop in effectiveness which is bad these these are both both very bad the financial times broke both of these stories this morning and as a result of not just uh now fears that the treatments we have working less well but even those symptoms for certain people might be more mild the fact that treatments aren't working for those who might potentially need those treatments in addition to the fact that mr j powell is now you know what transitories no more we're going to have to taper months earlier because well now we're really having inflation extend and honestly all it's going to take now is china shutting down a few ports over in china and the supply crisis is going to continue on much much further if we get more shutdowns or lockdowns really the supply chain crisis just continues to get worse and worse and worse which all just feeds into the inflation playbook now what this means going forward is very important but first a message from our sponsor so you got the dow jones industrial average down 1.7 percent that is an almost 600 point drop you've got the s p down 1.6 you've got the nasdaq down 1.74 you've got the russell down 2.64 bond yields folks down that that's very interesting why would bond yields be down if jerome powell wants to bury the transitory inflation term well because they're going to be printing less money which if they print less money then that's a sign that they're finally actually reacting uh to inflation threats and they're not going to continue to funnel as much money into our economy remember folks the federal reserve even though they've begun the taper from spending basically or printing 120 billion dollars per month of bonds even though they began that and reduced that to 105 in november and we expect to go down to 90 in december and then continue down the path of tapering 15 billion dollars until we get to the summer of next year at which point we would basically have no more taper and then the federal reserve can go all right now that we're fully tapered maybe now we can consider raising rates because we fully taper this has now turned into okay maybe we need to do what mr bostic from the federal reserve actually alluded to last week it's pretty impressive he kind of he spilled the beans last week he's like yeah you know nobody believed him i didn't believe him we might have to taper not just sooner but like in the first quarter like end the taper in the first quarter of 2022 and then consider raising rates which uh is is a good way to combat inflation which is why we're seeing yields go down less money printing right it's also why we're seeing cryptocurrencies fall on this news because okay fine the feds finally dropping the inflation argument they're finally going to combat inflation but now what we're seeing is basically bond yields go down crypto go down now we have the expectation that come february we could potentially start seeing interest rates go up to combat inflation and remember folks a lot of folks at least in surveys that i've conducted 40 to 60 depending on the day 40 to 60 of individuals use cryptocurrency as a hedge against inflation well if the fed is actually going to start doing their job and fighting inflation then maybe that becomes a little bit less of an issue now that's not to say you know okay fire sale on bitcoin time to drop everything bitcoin's still doing better than where i just bought it uh a few days ago as as usual i always send out every single alert uh that i make in stocks and options in the stocks and psychology of money group for probably at least the next six months i'm including crypto alerts in that uh so for example i sold crypto at fifty eight thousand fifty seven thousand five hundred to fifty eight thousand i rebought uh the allocation that i wanted right around fifty three thousand seven hundred and most of it around fifty four thousand four hundred because i saw that as a stronger support line but anyway i send these alerts so you're welcome to use that coupon code cyber monday it's active through the week i'm taking a vacation this weekend i will be off on monday no market open no market close uh live stream for me i will be off on monday but anyway the cyber monday code will be available through friday so you're welcome to check that out but anyway you can see this drawdown here in bitcoin because not only does bitcoin generally not move with the market so you don't really want to call it a market base to sell off uh bitcoin's got a beta of about 0.5 to 0.6 depending on which indices you compare to or index you compare to rather but you you are seeing a drawdown because we were starting to rally on bitcoin look at that we ran up to 59 000 we were running on bitcoin we were running on ethereum and we're seeing that u-turn specifically because now okay the fed's actually going to get out there behind and do something but look at some of the other pain that we're seeing in in the market and this is really where we want to start looking for potential pain points so you're seeing crypto related plays sell off a little bit more extensively that's normal but you're also seeing momentum style stocks like amc and newegg's sell-off this is the sign that you're starting to have some of the retail community start paper handing right again not a surprise that you see something like hot 8 mining sell off seven percent good thing i closed that position yesterday afternoon uh but you you're also seeing software look at that snowflake down 6.8 percent it's kind of like everyone's insecurities start coming out when they start freaking out about j-pal insecurities are usually in momentum plays and in higher valuation plays like software uh i mean look at fun wear fun wear is a momentum play or spaxx 23andme is a blink is a spec a smile direct club speculative six point nine percent of the downside obviously retail is getting spanked there's no surprise that moderna is selling down a little bit now that their products not as effective as as uh as individuals were were suggesting it would be i mean i'm pretty sure mr fauci and biden as as recently as yesterday are like hey uh don't worry about amikorin go get your fouchy ouchie and everything will be fine yeah well now it looks like everything's not gonna be fine ah that's exhausting uh anyway so we're seeing a little bit more of a sell-off in some stocks that were already rotating down like sunrun but look at this folks some stocks that were actually beginning to u-turn to the upside like lemonade it was up one to two percent today boom five percent gone just straight up rug pull on it sofi technology down to 1755 that's a support level for it we've been in a channel for so far over here oh look at that it actually broke past it 1780s where the support line we just broke past it it's not good uh you know hippo down to 3.5 uh a firm down to 4.4 i actually sold puts at 131 uh thinking there's no way we're gonna get a j-pal rug pull oops good move but anyway uh good news is my break even on that one is 126.4 which is basically where we are right now uh that's the benefit of selling puts right you don't know anything about selling puts and you just want to learn a little bit about options stocks of psychology money it's like literally everything is in there to take you from total rock idiot which is totally fine it's not embarrassing to to actually having a pretty substantial amount of knowledge uh in in the markets and uh how uh the mechanics of the markets work but anyway uh yelp i mean not a surprise look at this though the ev's you u-turning lucid was actually up a couple of percent today now down about four percent uh the gambling plays have been getting whacked here's finally a beginning of a sale opportunity again on some of our faves like end face and nvidia we have been waiting for these and look at this paypal suffering even more it broke under 180 for a moment cloudflare reversing the gains that it had today rivien down three percent even peloton the stay-at-home play is getting spanked today basically this is jay pal j pal coming in here and just smacking you upside the head going don't you think about continuing to buy the dip i'm trying to create a crash so i could go shopping in a dip anyway tesla is actually doing incredibly strong here i do think there is a lot of enthusiasm and momentum going into tesla because of twelve nine the potential rumored stock split announcement day which which is you remember last time tesla announced the split it ran up like 80 so people are like oh my god uh also worth noting that backed holdings was up 17 today and that's because bitcoin was rallying right we ran up to about 59 000.
now it's only up 0.98 this is a a cryptocurrency transaction processor fascinatingly though i don't even know if that's word uh apple up 1.87 i'll tell you exactly why folks people see apple as a cash park in a flight to safety even more so than google which i think is really interesting i mean google's down one point eight six percent but folks apple not only does it have the wind at its back for being a uh uh you know what's it called uh an s p play or really any of the big industry place but people see it as a flight to safety it's incredible i mean even microsoft's down about 1.18 so anyway crazy market thanks a lot jay pal but uh but honestly you know what finally finally the federal reserve u-turns a little bit on this this inflationary talk now they're sending signals that hey this we're going to go through probably a little bit more of a painful period here we're going to have to raise raise interest rates and uh sooner than expected potentially and then and then when inflation rotates down because at some point it will either through their action or not uh then they'll be able to unwind a little bit unfortunately that this does not bode well for the potential stock market over the next possibly six months because tapering is ultimately becomes painful raising rates becomes painful so moving all of this uh the end of the taper up it's no surprise that markets are selling off this much honestly the only thing that would potentially be a surprise is that we're not selling off more so i don't know if we're going to peter this kind of sell-off out until the next days history will show us that everybody's going to buy the dip later today and markets are going to jump up really today pay attention to that market closing are you seeing withdrawals from etfs by seeing big roller coaster dumping selloffs into the clothes that's usually a sign of a little bit more pain to come at least at least another day of pain to come it's just a little bit of a signal not always guaranteed but uh the only thing that's guaranteed is the fact that there is a coupon code linked down below that will expire at the end of this week it is the cyber monday week coupon code it's not as good as a black friday one but you know what it's the best that's gonna be prices are going to go up again and then then we'll move on from sale season alright folks thank you so much we'll see in the next one goodbye
Comments 0