저자: Kevin · 외국인
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S&P500 편입 종목(MSFT, AAPL 등)과 ARK 펀드 등 비편입 성장주의 성과 격차를 설명. 2021년 S&P500 약 80% 종목 상승, ARKK -14%, ARKG -31.6% 등 수치 제시. ETF 자금 유입이 S&P500 관련주에 집중되어 '순풍(tailwind)'이 작용한다고 주장. 옵션 측면에서 변동성 하락(vol crush)과 세타 감소가 LEAPS 매수자에게 불리하다고 설명. 비편입 성장주(TDOC, PLTR, SQ 등)는 역풍을 받는다고 해석하며, 개별 종목 권유보다는 구조적 설명 위주.
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why does it feel like so many stocks are red so many of the stocks in our community are red yet markets continue to go to all time highs what's happening why is this happening and what can this teach us about investing well keep in mind this video is brought to you by privateinternetaccess.com meet kevin but more on them in just a moment there will be a link down below for them right next to that cyber monday coupon code for the programs on building your wealth which is very good not quite as good as that black friday one but still very very good and pricing will continue to go up take a look at that and get lifetime access linked down below okay folks here's the thing why here we got to break some of this down and this is really good background info to consider ask yourself this what do these companies have in common tdoc palleteer square pinterest peloton bunch of different specs and corsair what do all those companies have in common and then ask yourself this what do these companies have in common enface etsy adobe autodesk nvidia microsoft apple and qualcomm and google what do those companies have in common with each other and that the other companies don't have in common with each other think about that for a moment if you're a regular investor you should already have a pretty good hint as to what the answer is but just in case you don't know i'll tell you in just a second but first we have to consider this so far this year the dow jones industrial average has 24 out of 30 of its companies in the positive territory that's 80 percent of dow companies are positive in the s p 500 we have only 90 companies with negative returns that means 81 of companies in the s p 500 are positive for 2021.
in fact we're expecting returns of around 25.8 percent for the year in the s p 500 unless we get some kind of crazy december sell-off that's incredible in fact i have a basket that i put together at met kevin.com basket it's a full basket and it basically gives you an allocation in the s p the dao the russell uh and the nasdaq and that's actually underperforming the s p 500 by about one percent pretty dang close it's still up like 24 certainly beats what we've got going on at arc arc k is down 14.25 percent for the year arc f the fintech fund is down 3.23 arcg the genomics fund is down 20 i'm sorry 31.6 percent for the year arc x the space fund in case you don't know about it you can type into youtube meet kevin arc x space and you'll see a full breakdown of arc x that's down 3.99 for the year arc q that's the autonomous and robotics etf that one's actually up eight percent and overall you've got a lot of institutions and hedge funds totally underperforming the s p 500 so what's the big difference between those stocks that i just mentioned and well the two different baskets of stocks that i mentioned what's the difference between them and what can we learn about investing when we consider comparing these two i'm going to answer that right after a message from our sponsor thank you to private internet access for sponsoring today's video vpns are an important tool to protecting your privacy online vpns mask your identity on the internet so you can browse anonymously and avoid targeted ads it means big companies and hackers won't know who you are or when you're browsing the web so that's why you should check out private internet access private internet access is one of the fastest growing vpns in the world it already has 30 million downloads worldwide and is only continuing to grow it's super easy to use and only takes a couple of seconds to set up once you log in you can simply select which country you want to appear in click a button and you're done if you use the link in the description below you can get four months totally for free and pay only a dollar and 98 cents per month for the first three years thereafter that's less than a subway sandwich these days with inflation so click on the link in the description or go to privateinternetaccess.com meet kevin just a tip some streaming platforms like netflix have different shows available in different countries so try toying with the country setting and see if you get different shows that you might be interested in watching well folks tdock palantir square pinterest peloton spax and companies like corsair are not in the s p 500 companies like enface etsy adobe autodesk nvidia microsoft apple google qualcomm are in the s p 500 now i don't want to sound overly basic here but take a look at this folks this is a list of inflows and outflows into the top or out of the top etfs of 2021.
you can see over here redemptions or outflows you have you've got almost 10 billion dollars coming out of the spyder gold trust you've got money coming out of corporate bond funds money coming out of here we've got other corporate bond funds treasury bond funds uh the russell 1000 growth fund oil funds consumer staples funds these are all losing money now let's go over here you got vo with 48 billion in inflows so far that is matching the s p 500 by the way the vo just tracks the s p 500 or tries to vti takes that s p 500 and adds another like 3 500 companies to it they have virtually the same return there's about a two percent difference in their return and that's because vti has like 3 500 more companies but it does encompass the s p 500 companies so 38 billion dollars going into vti is basically still like putting your money into the s p 500 uh then you've got the i shares s p 500 then you got bond and value then you have qqq which if you look at the top 10 holdings for the qqq they're almost freaking identical to guess what the s p 500 holdings apple google microsoft adobe you see where we're going this then you've got a short-term bond fund here some other funds developing markets fund and again the s p 500 when we add up how many of these funds right here or all of these net flows which works out to about 206 billion dollars when we add all of that up and basically divide by the number that are going into s p related stocks you're seeing 66 out of every 100 going into these top funds are basically going into s p 500 style stocks so what is in the s p 500 well it should be no freaking surprise look at this folks microsoft with a six percent weight microsoft has been killing it and i mean like i i i'm not a microsoft bull by any means i'm not a microsoft bear either like i'm totally neutral on microsoft but microsoft's performance has been unbelievable this year and it's the top stock in the s p 500 with a 6.35 waiting followed by apple at 6.31 amazon at 3.9 big gap tesla 2.25 google at 2.2 ish nvidia at 2 facebook 2.03 then you got like jp morgan home depot you know visas in here netflix has absolutely been crushing it there in here uh no not all companies in here have done excellently i mean look at like visa and paypal right we've had a little bit of a sell down in fintechs but folks we got to make some conclusions here so the first thing that i like to do when i look at something like this and this was eye-opening to me when i was doing this sort of research here is i like to think of myself as where do i like investing well i like investing in companies that i think have a lot of value well i've always thought that pal look and and want to be crystal clear here i like palantir i think palantir is highly misunderstood i don't profess to be a palanteer expert i think volunteer is a great company so i think the same about teledog but i don't invest in them i also don't invest in companies like corsair even though i think you know they're going to grow a little bit slower they've got good value they're not selling for that expense of a price but why potentially do they not have something that the other companies do which first and foremost is performance well potentially it's because they don't have wind at their backs let me explain the concept of investing in something that has wind at your back using options as an example so take a look at this jump on over here to the app pad the good old ipad all right when you s when you buy leaps long equity option contracts when you buy leaps there are two things that hurt you number one is volatility crush and the second thing that hurts you is theta decay if you do not know what these two things are you should not be investing in long call options because these things will bury you usually you just get people who buy calls and they're like well i think the stock's going to be worth more in the future but you put no value on your vol crush or your theta decay you're probably going to get screwed unless you're buying stuff deep in the money and if you don't know what any of the money is you shouldn't even be worried about options at frick at all but anyway these two things let's understand what's happening in today's environment well first things first we have declining volatility all you have to do is look at the vix to fact check me on this so you go to weeble or whatever it is you type in vicks then you go out to the day chart then you zoom out honestly you could probably zoom out even a little bit more i go with the day chart there we go all right go with the day chart this is your 2020 crash kind of volatility but what have you had since then folks let's just draw the trend okay very simple draw a little trend line here what's the trend been has it been up or has it been down it's obvious volatility has been declining that is not a surprise when volatility goes down your options premium goes down and every day that goes by as volatility goes down your price of the value of your options goes down and you get theta to ke eat now away basically because you're paying to rent that contract basically every single day so your value is going down so in other words when you're buying leaps in this market you actually have what i call two headwinds you have two things going against you pushing against you now you could do the opposite of this and then you would have two tailwinds two tailwinds would be uh well if you sell options because if you sell options you win when volatility goes down so vol down helps when you sell options and theta decay goes to the owners of options who sold the options so if you sell calls and sell puts you have two tailwinds if you're buying long calls you have two headwinds so what does that have to do with the s p 500 and certainly is not kimble musk's documents right there well what it is very simple the s p 500 and people passively investing pi passively invested are your biggest tailwinds that's a good thing that pushes you so you have to ask yourself would you rather invest in stocks that look really good on paper but don't have the tailwind of the s p 500 or would you rather pick really good stocks out of the s p 500 and have the tailwinds and this is by the way just the kind of psychology that we talk about in the stocks and psychology money course remember you could use that cyber monday code it's a great deal and the pricing does go up over time so you may as well lock in lifetime access just in case you missed that prior sale on black friday black friday was a little bit of a better sale but hey you've got another bite at the apple here and the pricing will be going up after cyber monday uh you know the cyber monday sales are over but anyway uh you've got some serious tailwinds when you're investing in s p 500 related stocks and i believe that's why companies like shift technology teledoc palantir and some of the others are lagging behind now don't get me wrong it doesn't mean if you invest in every s p 500 stock it's going to do perfectly i mean i guess if you invest in the entire index it's done great it's been 81 positive but look disney and paypal have been getting smashed and they're in the s p 500 right so it's not a guarantee but i would say it's easier for paypal or disney to get out of this trap that they're in this hole that they're in because of all this money going into the s p so i actually think that's bullish i also think it's bullish for companies like and face etsy adobe autodesk nvidia tesla microsoft apple and so on and so forth they're all in the s p 500.
now i do think that they're at extended valuations right now but i do think there's an opportunity to buy these by selling puts just on a weekly basis sell put sell put sell put sub puts and if you get assigned big deal then then you finally own the stock and if you don't you're yield farming uh now don't get me wrong i do invest in companies that are outside of the s p 500 like i've got a huge position in matterport or a firm these are excellent companies matterport killed it today it was up 20 percent this is another stock we've talked a lot about in the course stocks and psychology of money group but anyway consider this when you're investing look for stocks with wind at their back you don't want headwinds headwinds hurt hopefully this perspective was very helpful and insightful to you i wish you the best in investing and folks check out that partnership link down below or go to privateinternetaccess.com me kevin thanks so much goodbye
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