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whoa whoa whoa whoa what is going on Tesla why why why why I I don't know how I feel about this but refinitiv just reported across the tape just moments ago Trump transition team plans to kill $77,500 consumer tax credit for electric vehicles Tesla Representatives support ending the evv subsidies this is not good I actually don't love that now I know the argument for the Tesla Community the Tesla Community argument and I respect it is hey you know what this is actually a good thing because what'll happen is you crush the competition but the reality is the competition's already in the freaking toilet I mean Volkswagen threw a YOLO $800 million over at rivan ain't going to do a lot of good in my opinion that's that then on the other side you've got Lucid they're not really competition Ford and GM they're reducing their production of electric vehicles other manufacturers making electric vehicles in America the porch to taan who cares you know the other they're no competition Toyota's focusing on hybrids and they're great in high quality but let's be real Tesla dominates I take delivery of my cybertruck well was supposed to be four days ago and then it was supposed to be yesterday but they keep getting delayed in transit who knows maybe people are like rushing to buy Teslas before the end of the year oh the Cyber truck doesn't get the $7,500 which is lame uh but um hey you know this could actually be a really good boost for Q4 sales like hurry up and get your $7,500 tax credit sale ends soon you know it's like coupon expiring below get your Black Friday Tesla you know it so like in the short term that's actually kind of bullish but I I don't really resonate with this idea that oh you're definitely going to and we'll do some numbers here in valuations in just a moment but I don't actually resident with the idea that killing the $7,500 tax credit is a good thing for Tesla I I don't think it's a good thing at all for Tesla now we'll explain some numbers and and what what I think the actual impact of this is going to be since this is just now breaking news but something that I wanted to also mention just because I think it's like free value for you and really really good is this morning I actually sent an alert totally for free about tasla stock uh and what I said was I'll actually just quote it for you it's right here this is what it I I wrote uh Tesla 31862 is in play today and must hold to avoid a bleed to $300 if you want to get this sort of morning briefing we call it the alpha report you could sign up for it totally for free at meetkevin.com Alfa you could click the little yellow button here if you're in the US or Canada you'll get a text and an email with your Alpha report which I think is very valuable and what's really remarkable is if you look at Tesla Tesla opened ran to 329 and then basically Consolidated right at my 31862 line and even with this news that just came out here just moments ago Tesla's still holding that 31862 line roughly I hope it does into the close but with that said let's Now understand some implications uh of uh this this cut basically this EV tax cut uh so the first thing is uh what I think we ought to do is look at uh let's say the typical cost of a model Y which I think is your best purchase for a Tesla I also want to announce that I've had like I almost never pitch my Tesla referral link but in the last 6 months actually probably more like the last 3 months I've had more Tesla signups through my referral link that I don't pitch anyway than in like I feel like the year or two before that so I've definitely seen a lot more of these moves here but uh I guess you get $1,000 off a new Tesla uh it's tesla.com referral Kevin 5689 uh I also have a shortcut it's me so met Kevin me kevin.com Tesla uh not meet Kevin just met Kevin I I know that confuses people too but anyway so let's understand this if I go into order this now the Tesla's now Tesla Kevin referral applied oh for a model y oh that's cool all right whatever so uh referral applied oh that's really cool okay but anyway so cash so I'm going to remove incentives and I'm just going to go with the entry level bro no dude's going to buy the entry level one ah it's got good range though honestly I know it doesn't have the speed but dude that range boost okay okay okay just get the range boost one it's at 337 versus 377 I honestly I mean I'd be I don't know I like Fast I'd probably charge it more I'd probably get the fast one I mean I'm getting the Cyber Beast okay so as I usually like to say uh do as I say not as I do don't do what I do do the opposite uh but you have to know what my ideas are this is why you got to sign up for the alpha report it's free uh and and then you can do the opposite I'm just kidding do whatever you want just try to share you value and perspective but anyway get the long range it's $45,000 right uh FSD is going to cost you 8K most people are going to want to get the FSD the problem with this is now you're at a $52,500 car $52,500 minus the $7,500 tax credit puts you at about $45,000 let's go compare now to a RAV for Toyota uh and I think honestly this is going to push the used inventory a lot cuz you look at a used Rav 4 you're running somewhere around 30 $28,000 uh somewhere around there 28 to 32 is let's go to Tesla Model y used let's just quickly see what we're getting here yeah see these are very similar uh to the used Rav 4 prices I mean plenty of inventory here 15,000 mies that's nothing and a new Rav 4 starting at 28k oh wow I didn't know they were that inexpensive hold on a sec so what's the most expensive I hate all these options good Lord 40,000 is the most expensive hybrid Rav 4 now obviously it doesn't have FSD and so we'd really have to do this without FSD at this point uh 44 yeah you're basically par with the highest end Rav 4 now actually the highest end ra 4 is now a little less expensive whereas previously that tax credit would bring you down so now you could get you know I mean what what what are the emissions on this or uh not emissions what's the um MPG on this miles per gallon uh this gets about 41 as hybrid that's actually pretty good for an SUV right so you are going to get you're basically what you're doing is you're making it harder to transition people to electric vehicles especially people with r range anxiety which are going to be a lot of people so I do find this a little bit unfortunate uh that now the Rav 4 is actually more uh price how should I say um aggressive uh than the lowest end model Y without FSD I still think you're better off getting used and I think one of the implications of this is you're going to either see a loss of sales to other vehicle manufacturers or you're going to see a loss of sales to uh used vehicles this could be a boon for the used vehicle Market though I'll give it that and now what about the valuation of Tesla I think that's probably kind of important too so let's consider for a moment with the valuation all right so Revenue per vehicle this is very important for Tesla because what we did in the last analysis for Teslas we actually boosted our energy section over here to $26 billion uh I'm going to put a little note here on the right uh let's get rid of these these are all old tables so let's put a note on the right uh we'll put a comment and I prefer to just honestly insert there we go that's what I like it when they do these little Post-It note thingies all right so 18 bill is Kevin's estimate for energy 2026 26 bill is uh Bloomberg uh intelligence uh Ira credit limits could uh reduce both both of these though I am very bullish solar and batteries at a good valuations uh like nase uh though there is more downside possible for n uh okay we did a huge analysis by the way nphase I think we spent like 40 minutes doing discounted cash flow and future valuations coming up with price targets and all that remember when you're a course member you get life time access that's over at Meek kevin.com and so anytime we do a course member live stream you get those all the time uh but anyway uh my opinion uh and keep in mind Tesla gets not only like the consumer gets a credit but also uh Tesla gets um a manufacturing credit through the inflation reduction act for both solar and vehicles so it's very important so the uh the Zev credits right Zev credits are about 00 a vehicle let's assume uh those stay for now since it's uh us manufacturing right losing $7,500 uh of a tax credit probably honestly this was probably something that benefited the consumer to about I would say 75% so it's probably about a 75% hit to Tesla uh in in terms of how much they have to reduce pricing hits Tesla by 75% so 5,000 $ 5,625 in price reductions necessary uh to offset basically right to offset okay well there's there are few ways you could do this if I'm Tesla what I would do uh I would just drop the price of FSD to 3K and keep uh vehicle pricing the same uh and keep doing financing incentives uh I think those sell more cars than just dropping the price of the vehicles however that is going to reduce margin uh we'll hit margin so what we're going to do is I'm going to leave average vehicle selling price no you know what let's go ahead and give half let's reduce the average vehicle selling price in half just because you might get some downshift to the three versus the Y so we'll put a little bit of a downshift here and then we're going to do about a $3,000 downshift in margin which right now your margin is uh on a $440,000 vehicle it's about 18% I'm going to take oh gosh $3,000 is um takes off a lot you can't take that off all of the margin that it just wouldn't it would it it would have the margin no way yeah well hold on let's let's logic this out because you know that's actually concerning you're better off taking it off the top than you are taking it off the bottom line that's interesting let's logic this for a moment together okay so uh if lack of credit means uh Tesla has to I mean I I don't know how much it really matters because it's the same money top or bottom line right uh if lack of credit means Tesla has to absorb and this is my estimate it could be less absorb $ 5,625 of um pain basically then uh either average selling price down or margin down margin probably goes down because of the Zev Rev uh zero emission Vehicle tax credit on manufacturing we're assuming stays at this point worth $1800 so that's a bottom that's the bottom line portion and your margin on the vehicles right now at $1 18% at $40,000 is $7,200 uh 18% margin is about uh $7,200 per vehicle so tax credit contributes 18 00 ided 7200 what is that 18 / 72 is 12 uh about 12% of uh margin without credit closer to if I take that out closer to about 16% margin okay that's without the manufacturing credit but if I have to absorb the entire $5,600 at the Top Line it's possible uh let's let's assume then 5625 is a Topline problem okay then unfortunately we're going to do this we're going to leave margin at 18% we're going to take $ 5,625 literally Off The Top Line let's see what that does uh first just so you know what Baseline is Baseline valuation I have right now at 50 for a manufacturing company is $272 it's at about 318 right now like we talked about in the meat Kevin Alpha report uh which means you do have downside unfortunately right now based on where the pricing is but let's go to now we're going to reduce this let's see here we're going to reduce this uh 40 ah yeah okay we already did that plus 40,000 there we go 34 yeah I mean you could see this either in model 3 moves uh or in you know people going from basically model wise to model 3s or just you know they sell fewer cars until they hit this price so if I go down to 343 this is vehicle deflation it could happen that reduces our stock price by is that about 30 bucks yeah about $28 272 minus $244 $28 so let's leave a comment here uh reducing from let's go with 40K ASP to 34 whatever we said uh 375 equals um 20 $8 of share price Redux so it's not horrible but this is what you would probably see in order to maintain growth this is to maintain growth not to grow more so it does it does slow vehicle adoption down a bit uh that's not ideal now uh this is with the Bloomberg estimate on energy and this assumes that margin stays 18% let's now go uh you know uh $28 hit $28 hit to price assumes uh minus 5625 for uh $7,500 loss uh goes to Tesla off top but keeps margin at 18% if we lose Zev credits we go to 16% margin 16% margin now margin is usually where it hurts we're going to go from 244 to 220 that would take another $24 off uh that's another $24 off stock price so to me we have not heard that we're going to lose the Zev credits so I'm just going to leave that for right now to me you're probably you know you want to be sub I mean if it's 200 bucks that's that's a nice return over a couple years you know 10% each absent obviously a recession you know if you have a recession you you do have some problems now previously I've been of the impression or mindset rather that you know Tesla uh would potentially how should I say it um be recession resilient and I want to talk about that recession resilience a little bit recession resilience uh Works uh when your customers are resilient in recession in 2022 I thought uh Tesla was recession Brazilian because of the extra savings you know 25 to 55y old dudes had and higher net worth today that same group that group that cohort uh which obviously I'm a part of right um they are unfortunately are more at risk of AI related layoffs and consolidations in um uh corporate expenses and wage deflation this hurts uh the ability to uh the ability or desire to spend uh on uh butter uh vehicles or butter right vehicle uh expenses uh this is why uh this morning uh fed Barkin said uh if Market corrects higher net worth individuals may spend less uh and they are the ones propping up spending right now making the economy look strong see that's these These are problematic things uh so not good not good but I know elon's pitching the idea that this is not a big deal for Tesla and I know you don't want a Rav 4 compared to a Tesla because otherwise you wouldn't be watching this video this long uh but but we are not everyone you know that's something I think with it's often easy to forget when we're looking at um stocks is is we just think of the world really around us as being exactly like us uh but I don't believe that uh and I really really implore that Tesla must maintain 318 otherwise like I said I mean I'll show you what we wrote on that Alpha report this morning uh in terms of what the price trajectory is uh if we do lose that level uh and again I'm not I'm not suggesting that we will I'm not trying to be a bear here but take a look at this I am a bear I don't want to be a bear I really I cannot wait to stop being a bear I I hate being a bear I feel like a like I just want to be honest but I feel like a bear I don't want to be a bear I'd rather you know be at 400 bucks and be in it with you and be like yeah we're going to the Moon anyway I said if we uh if we lose okay so I said 318 is in play today and must hold to avoid a bleed to 300 yesterday the stock ran up 4.5% at open it was sold down to less than 70 BP of gains on the day this is a sign of profit taking in my opinion see how coin puked off 320 the same thing can happen to Tesla with coin under 300 psychological line and 244 is back in play but Kevin QQQ is at all-time highs yes Tesla's 4.1% weight in the NASDAQ contributed 13 points alone to QQQ uh and I do the math for you so literally Tesla propped QQQ from 500 to 513 single hand ly if Tesla retraces The Q's lose 500 that will psychologically scream Market peaked and one stock can do that Tesla volatility in July at uh Tesla volatility is at July highs so if we don't hold 318 we're going to bleed to 300 uh probably like 295 to 300 in that range so guess we'll see what happens anyway uh thanks for watching this remember meetkevin.com Alpa to get your free Al Alpha report uh meetkevin.com Alpha and I'll link the Tesla referral code down below if you want to get a Tesla before the E TX credit expires thanks so much bye we o great to get your take
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