저자: JennyHorn · 외국인
요약 보기
8/31~9/2 실적 시즌 프리뷰. 주요 종목(ZS, CRM, AVGO)의 펀더멘털과 차트 기술적 분석을 제시. ZS는 매출 성장 및 플랫폼화 흐름이 긍정적이나 차트상 단기 돌파 여부가 관건. CRM은 AI 위협 속에서도 PER 저점 수준과 활동주주 지분 확대로 저평가 논리를 제시. AVGO는 AI 반도체 성장으로 실적 기대가 높고 Oppenheimer 상향 등 긍정적이나 실적 발표 전 대칭삼각형 수렴 중.
다듬은 글
Welcome back to Morning Trade Live. Time for the chart masters. So, we have a few names to watch because earnings are due out next week. So, we're going to comb through these. Jenny Horn will take us through the fundamentals and Rick Dat will take us through the technicals. So, we're previewing you some of these names to watch for next week, these earnings.
Zcaler is first up. Jenny, let's start with that one. Yeah, and so far everything we've heard as far as these enterprise accounts has been very strong for anything with cyber security exposure. But just for some context, I mean it just commands such a smaller portion of that overall market. If you look at the broader cyber security space, which is difficult to compare, it's so competitive right now that Zcaler only has about 1 to 2% market share as seen by I mean various forecasts.
So it it's relatively small g again compared to the footprint we see versus like paloato networks or crowd strike. So as far as now expectations for this coming report on Tuesday September 2nd after the close street is forecasting revenue to be around 706 million that would actually mark almost 20% improvement year-over-year on earnings that are expected around 80 cents a share.
That would be a 9% contraction. So analyst revisions have been largely fat flat for the current quarter, but do show some positive trends for next fiscal year indicating that potential growth and some positive investor interest again as we look at the back half of this year. Consensus estimates though have I mean been pretty strong.
As you look at the next fiscal year, we're expecting earnings to rise another 12% versus the past year. When looking at what really is indicative of this report, I think you have to look at total contract value as they have seen some major new customers secured and expanding on their existing relationships as demonstrated by their really strong bookings trends we've seen in TCV as well as growth in these emerging markets.
Meaning that right now performance of these newer product categories like say the data security everywhere and their agenic operations are also showing showing the significant growth potential. And last but not least, the integration of Red Canary, which is a C managed threat detection and response provider, is also been a positive and a strategic move to really help enhance their overall offerings.
Looking for updates on these AI powered security solutions is also going to be of course top of mind. But more and more we're seeing consolidation in the space and also this concept of well they all used to command I mean different parts of the cyber security world and it was fairly fragmented just years ago.
Now we're starting to see major companies like again Palo Alto Networks. Crowdstrike for example really want to become the one-stop shop for cyber security solutions known as platformization is what of course Palo Alto Networks has been working towards. This was criticized years ago but it is seemingly done pretty well for a lot of these cyber security names this earnings period.
So the question then remains is Zcaler are seeing this same concept of consolidating and and really making its operation streamline like its competition or is it lagging? And so that that will be a critical question that should be answered next week. But hey, shares have outperformed this year up 52% so far in 2025.
We pulled back modestly on the month but up another 2% this week. And look, we saw Snowflake as you noted looking that has been looking good. We've had Dan Ies. He's always like Zcaler. So, we'll have to wait and see. What about the chart here? It was at 318 as the high, Rick. Yeah, this one, uh, we topped out at that level, as you said, near 318, just above that point.
Um, and we got stuck. We we can see that we had this, uh, series of highs that failed to break above that level repeatedly. We had this kind of rising wedge type shape here in the latter end of our blue trend line here that suggests slowing momentum. And indeed we can see that the RSI, our relative strength index study here shows declining values despite uh remaining in the overbought area for a while.
So we had a kind of a mismatch here. We had momentum declining, price struggling to break above that level here. And then it did eventually translate into a downside move here that took us below this point 296 the low point leading up to our our struggle to break above the highs and then kind of the breakdown point that we have yet to uh regain here.
However, when we look at the more recent price action, a very narrow falling wedge type shape here between our two white dash lines has been broken to the upside here. It was also quite close to the confluence of our two moving averages, yellow 21-day, orange 63-day exponential moving averages. So, this breakout above uh 275 276 uh that general area uh looks like it could be the start of potentially a new trend here.
We can see RSI also had a matching breakout as well. If we were to look at our volume profile studies, we can see that our volume nodes come in here, here, and as here at about uh 275, at about 285, and about 305. So those are the heavy trading areas to watch out for. Notice that this one lines out uh up with our breakout point here.
Uh so it seems like prices is pushing above a noteworthy level. All right, thank you for that, Rick. Let's take a look at sales force. It's had a tough 2025. It was a darling at one point when it went into the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Some are saying maybe the valuation is attractive now because it's been beaten down.
Let's talk about sales force, Jenny. Okay, Nicole, I I'm glad you mentioned that because with this I mean really disappointing year and I mean like a continuous slide since even its last reported report. I mean, we've seen shares now down about, you know, 24% on the year. That actually makes it the second worst performer on the year in the Dow.
It's not really hard to see why we're seeing this concern because right now AI has eaten into its pretty lucrative re revenue streams and its lofty profit margins for some of these software companies have also remained I mean pretty of concern. So these worries are particularly acute at Salesforce which does trade at faces really an undeniable threat from AI.
I think it's important to differentiate between the names that are seeing an AI lift and an AI benefit in their business model and the companies whose business model is going to evolve and change and quickly at that with the evolution of AI. So now the the thinking is to your point about valuation some of these spheres are now priced into shares at least.
So Salesforce is trading at 22 times its earnings estimates for the year. That's a 10-year low and also well below the historical there's average price to earnings ratio of roughly 54. It's not to say that Salesforce deserves a premium anymore because I think that understandably so with the lack of growth it's going to be challenged for quite some time.
8.6% 6% earnings growth is what we're expecting from a year ago. But low 20s PE is is still relatively low. And many do think that right now at least earnings on an annual basis could pick up by about 15% into the next coming year. So that does mean right now, relatively speaking, you can make the case that things are undervalued.
That doesn't mean that obviously it will outperform earnings. They have to be able to put up some solid numbers when we get those those numbers on Wednesday after the close. But all things considered right now, I think there's been at least a lot of hope for some of this pessimism being priced in. Plus, you add the fact that Starboard value did boost its stake in Salesforce by roughly 400,000 shares in the second quarter.
That could be seen as another catalyst. And that activist investor did first take an interest back in 2022. But they have really been prompting their CEO of Salesforce, Mark Ben off, to move aggressively and rolling out AI features to show that they're competitive and it's not just eating away at their market share in a space that I think is going to be challenged by AI.
I mean, Salesforce's platform, I will say, is difficult to understand and use, but once you do, there's a massive adoption that, you know, you spend all this time understanding the software, you're going to be more reliant and more consistent when utilizing it. But then add AI that makes basically anyone be able to integrate various sales platforms just as easily.
That threatens that competitive mode. I mean, I've been making the same case for Adobe where you eliminate right now that barrier of of difficulty to use with AI and then suddenly your competitiveness is is seen as as failing or lacking a bit here. Yeah, understood. I mean, there they made this acquisition for Aentic AI, but it's been under pressure.
They talked at Oppenheimer about softening business trends and limited near-term catalysts. Um, it's great if it's cheap, but you need some catalysts to give it a boost. Rick, your thoughts here on this chart? Yes, so this one is uh one that we saw bounce off of our recent low point that we hit during our tariff news shock event here during April.
We bottomed out in this area right around 230. uh it wasn't too terribly much below our our prior lows here during the uh uh the first part of this one-year chart, but you can see that's about where price found a foothold. Once again, the intraday lows came in at about 22648. For now, though, price is uh poised to potentially retake this old uh support level that now is resistance.
We can see here that uh we had this red line representing a frequent stopping point for price. 255 has now come back into focus here. Price is staying above its short-term blue trend line. We have also managed to push above the yellow 21-day exponential moving average so far. So that's a early term potentially bullish signal here.
However, price is now stuck at this confluence. Here we have our old uh uh former support becoming new resistance. a downward sloping trend line here. This this uh downward sloping white channel uh and our 63-day exponential moving average. These all line up between about 255 to 258 or so. This would be a noteworthy area to clear.
We also have our range highs here at this pink line that's right about at our purple 252day EMA. So 275. So around 258 and 275 are the important upside areas. 230 is the important downside area here. so far. Uh we can also see volume profile shows the very heavy trading area uh is is right around here between that same range that I just mentioned here.
The point of control specifically is at 270. Um so not especially great for the bulls that we remain below the high volume concentration here. We would want to see a push back above that area if you had a more bullish outlook. Okay, thank you for that. And last but not least, we're going to talk about Broadcom next, right?
And look, everybody loves Broadcom who comes on. They talk about the Mag 7 that this should be the Mag 8. Uh what do you think here, Jenny, when you look at this name? I know. I always think it's underappreciated how massive Broadcom has really become. I mean, it's a 1.4 trillion dollar company. Of course, joining that very exclusive, very small trillion dollar club and now has only grown since.
So now earnings will be a critical test. I mean they they do always historically report late in the cycle but given I mean the strength of this company's earnings historically I mean in the past we've seen really nice growth like in their June report we saw second quarter earnings easily topping expectations the primary driver for their soaring demand was these AI semiconductors of course reinforced so by their strong contributions from VMware specifically semiconductor though revenue alone rose almost 17% year-over-year and AI specific semiconductor revenue did climb another 46% from last year.
So, I mean there was a lot to like within those growth rates, but as we know with talking some of these behemoths of companies, the pace of growth, well, I mean, we it's fantastic. It also cannot start to slow because that's read as, hey, you know, you're weakening in a market that's booming. So, they have to be able to keep up that relative levels of growth.
So, adjusted earnings, I mean, we saw a rise 44% almost from last year again in the prior quarter. All this to be said, expectations are high for Broadcom as as we approach this third quarter print. And so when you look at what was expected this quarter, earnings are expected to climb another 32.4%.
Well, we also are expecting bottom line for its fiscal year to rise another 48%. So in lease expectations are also matching I mean overall this really high bar that's set. And also we got some positive analyst news this week receiving an upgrade from Oenheimer ahead of their report next week and they said that this does remain the number two franchise just behind Nvidia.
also went on to say that they're seeing this leadership position in the AI application specific integrated s circuit or ASIC market and said specifically they remain a long-term buyer of Broadcom shares noting their core business in networking wireless broadband etc has been really able to support this sustainable growth and also calling out I think specifically some of these major high-profile clients which include the likes of Google, Meta, Open AI as well as Apple which is naturally a place you want to be.
So Broadcom has been definitely busy throughout the quarter. We did see Jensen Wong of course Nvidia's CEO yesterday say that or excuse me two days ago say that they're not seeing an erosion from these comp competitors like a Marll or Broadcom. So maybe that's a concern because Marval Marval is not reacting so favorably to its earnings today.
But Broadcom has been a huge huge presence in reshaping the way that you think about this legacy company as it's really forayed into AI and that's been a huge benefit to the company. All right, thank you for all the details on that. Everybody's waiting on this earnings report. This will be a big one.
I mean, I know Nvidia was the biggie this week, but a lot of eyes will be on on this one for sure. What do you think of the chart, Rick Ducat? So here we have a situation where we've seen uh pretty strong growth since our last earnings event here. Uh we had this high point that was established above our our old highs back previously on the chart.
But we can see here then uh after a brief dip uh following the earnings highs. We have once again broken above that level 261 our light green line and really once again never really looked back. So now we have this upward sloping trend line in white and we also have an accompanying downward sloping trend line starting with these highs from 317.
This gives us this rather small triangular type shape here, a symmetrical triangle suggesting that we have uh the potential for breakout beyond either of these two boundaries. We see narrowing price activity, slowing momentum according to our RSI study. Pretty common as we head into earnings. Though we did see some bearish divergence on the RSI recently, but uh earnings known event risk situation.
People often uh are more likely to perhaps keep their powder drive so they can uh wait and see how things shake out. Now we can also see though to the downside we are uh uh lining up with our yellow 21-day EMA and our trend line right around 297 or so. Uh we also have our double bottom here, our short-term double bottom around 282, marking our relative lows.
That could be another downside point to consider. Volume, not really too terribly many clear nodes here. The most uh obvious one here is near about that 295 300 level or so. Uh then we have another bump here near 270, but the heavy volume is far below current prices here. One last thing here, plus one standard deviation channel comes in near about 324.
Uh could be an upside target target to consider going forward. Remember though, it's a moving target. It's a snapshot of uh this moment in time. It would change as price changes. Okay, great to see you both. Good luck and and nice preview of earnings for next week. We're still in the thick of it. Jenny Horn, Rick Ducat, thank you both.
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