저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
채권 자경단(Bond vigilantes) 재등장 가능성을 논하며 미국 10년물 금리가 연방기금금리 근처까지 오르는 상황을 경고. 과거 84·94년 사례처럼 고금리가 이어지다 금리 인하로 연착륙하는 시나리오를 제시하고, 기업·주택담보 장기고정금리 덕분에 금리 충격 시차가 길어진다고 주장. 부동산 시장 냉각 신호를 언급하며 향후 겨울이 더 힘들 수 있다고 봄. 테슬라는 3년간 사실상 횡보했다고 설명하고, SBF의 트럼프 출마 포기 대가 발언도 소개.
다듬은 글
oh smokes is it possible the Bond vigilantes are back and what could that mean for the real estate and stock market this is a big deal we got to talk about it in this video but also how much was Donald Trump potentially going to get paid not to run for president by Sam bankman freed as some like to call him Sam bankman fraudster well in this video we're going to talk about exactly that and more let's get into it first yesterday we speculated that there was wild and rampant Short Selling going on in the treasury market and this has happened historically as well and what happens when you short the treasury market is you drive yields up all you have to know is when I say short treasuries you think yields up we don't have to get into the mechanics of that but what does it mean when yields go up it means interest rates for houses go up and a lot of other things go up and start to see some pain in the real estate market and it's only been recent I'll tell you some of the areas that were hot in July are not now and some of the areas that were Mega multiple offer hot in August are less multiple offer hot you're going from like 10 offers to all of a sudden two we're seeing a massive shift in the real estate market and things are really finally reacting to either a interest rates being higher B the fact that the people who were willing to buy with high interest rates have potentially gone away and maybe seasonality the fact that we're post uh school starting all of those three factors together mean that despite low inventory you're starting to see some pain in fact I don't know that in my career I've been able to go to a home seller and say hey we've been on the market for 10 days and your $590,000 listing which should be worth based on the comparable sales $590 to $600,000 that's what it should be worth and it's listed at $590 and after 10 days it's not selling I just saw a real estate agent drop the price of this property by $4,000 now who knows maybe they're trying to go for multiples before winter starts but this particular house is in an area where you're expecting like a big snowstorm to roll in or something but it's a sign that people are a little worried about what's to come this winter and that's why we got to talk about these Bond vigilantes now personally I think that's an opportunity I think eventually interest rates will go down but but we'll have to look at this chart to see is that definitely going to be true we'll see what history says and is that an opportunity maybe for my real estate startup house hack maybe go learn more about what I call the Vanguard of real estate over at house hack.com and read the offering circular for our fundraise but look at this chart right here this is mindblowing and then I got to tell you about this Donald Trump thing as well as some other things but holy smokes usually when the Federal Reserve aggressively raises interest rates that's the blue line right here right the people with the money printer usually when the FED aggressively raises rates the Federal Reserve rate goes up above the 10-year yield and then it pushes inflation down or at least that's the goal that was tried in the early '70s it was tried in the mid '70s it was tried in the early 80s but take a look what happened after at the red lines this is really interesting the B Bond vigilantes came out at the Red Arrows I apologize the Bond vigilantes came out and you actually had spikes of the 10-year treasury well above the Federal Reserve fed funds rate that happened both in 84 and 94 and even though we did slowly keep this trend of staying above what the Fed rate is over here as you can see the red lines just slowly been kind of trending down and there are other times it's been high as well like over here it's worth noting these Spikes have been associated with Bond vigilantism bond vigilantism is when you have investors institutions hedge fund managers big dollar investors you know the real Wall Street suits who got all the dollar hollers say you know what we are tired of a few things one Reckless government spending number two the potential for more inflation look at oil prices I don't particular you think more inflation is coming but this is just some of the arguments that they're making uh and quantitative tightening which is basically the Federal Reserve dumping treasuries on the market so if they're dumping treasuries that lowers the price why would you invest in bonds and high alternative investment yields like money market funds which yield a lot of money so so why invest in treasuries it doesn't make sense so then you get what's called a bond vigilante movement which is where institutions come out and say you know what we're going to short and dump all of our treasuries maybe go short on them and that ends up driving yields higher okay why is that bad well it hurts everything for longer it gives you potentially a weaker economy going forward but wait or does it while right now we have not experienced that Bond vigilante ISM yet on this chart the 10-year treasury is still meaningfully below the FED funds rate the FED funds rate is5 and a half% 10year treasuries are sitting at about 4.69% as of this morning clearly there's still a gap here and maybe that Gap will remain actually the 10-year treasury is now at 4.71% it just keeps Rising every time I refresh the page it just keeps going up what's potentially happening is a return to bond vigilantism again take a shot every time I say this you'll probably end up in the hospital so don't end up doing that I'm going to stop saying it now but anyway look at when these instances occurred and there's talk now that we could be back to seeing this now why is it useful to identify where it occurred and most importantly where it didn't occur ready for this look at where it didn't occur look at the 2006 2007 recession era notice how we did not have Bond well I'm not going to say it again that activity right here notice how you actually saw the 10year never suddenly Peak substantially and well above the federal funds rate and then we slid into a dark and dirty recession the Great Recession notice what didn't happen after the last two times we've seen this Spike 84 and 94 well it should be obvious remember the gray bars symbolize a recession what did did we not get during those periods well we didn't get a recession something else that's worth looking at is that real GDP which is GDP minus inflation that's the number you should be looking at didn't meaningfully shift during the time of BV or this sort of bond market movement instead you had relatively stable GDP here in 94 for what you could say is stable you did come off of some higher GDP in 83 but in 84 you really just went to this normalization of GDP because you were coming out of a hole from 82's recession now look we haven't gone to massively positive 10-year yields yet but my point of this is arguing that it's possible that higher for longer could also mean the Federal Reserve might reduce their federal funds rate from 5'5 to say 4.5 5 and the 10e could then be positive at 4.7 5% 5 and a qu% whatever and you go back to that sort of vigilante ISM oh I said it again but what happens you actually are just like in 84 94 part of a soft Landing recovery Market oh I said it I said it see people always like Kevin the most dangerous words in investing or this time is different okay but maybe this time actually isn't different it's literally just like 84 and 94 which both of those years were guess what coming out of recessions coming out of the 82 inflation fight coming out of the 91 crash both of them were coming out of recessions how interesting just like Donald Trump potentially being offered billions of dollars is interesting look at this oh and then I got to tell you something about Tesla boy I pissed some people off with Tesla yesterday you know what hold on a second let's wait on the uh Sam bankman fraud and uh Donald T thing here we got to look at Tesla for a moment some people got massively pissed off at me they're like Kevin how could you say that Tesla stock has been flat for basically 3 years okay first of all we're talking about the stock market nobody's here to tell you that the stock is literally just doing this for 3 years okay what I was at roughly 3 years ago 33 months ago to be precise which is December to January 2020 to 2021 Tesla was trading for about the same valuation that it is now now notice I said valuation that's because there are a lot of people like but cabin there the worst stock splits it's like okay sometimes I really like people like Kevin you sell courses on building your wealth how do you know you're going to actually be able to help people and I say just read the comments just read the comments people need help okay the chart's inflation or the chart is already split adjusted it's not that hard it's already split adjusted if we're trading for $250 now and we move the mouse over to December and January over here of 2020 and 2021 you're basically at the same level where you are now go out to the day basis and maybe it makes it a little bit more clear again yes has there been volatility in Tesla stock of course nobody's saying there hasn't been but look at this hump over here inflation or split adjusted we're at $300 in January January 6th 2021 j6 folks Tesla closes for 253 that's 33 months ago okay it's not great and obviously the Cyber truck still hasn't gotten delivered we've been waiting for that supposed to happen in Q3 nope not yet but hey you know what at least we can read about s bankman freed apparently wanted to pay Donald Trump $5 billion according to his biographer $5 billion to get Donald Trump not to run s bank mfried obviously a massive fraudster of FTX apparently donated up to $40 million to Democrats and says he secretly donated to Republicans because the best way to get advertising was donating publicly to Democrats and privately to Republicans now we got to talk about the Federal Reserve lag but before we do that remember the new bris Pro crash courses are available we we added even more crash courses to these so if you're looking for more potential options like how to get paid more at your job make sure to check out meetkevin.com they're $89 per crash course they are brand new content we also have a course on how to speak and present with confidence check these out remember you can click multiple of these to unlock a coupon and not only that if you add multiple of them the total percentage off actually increases so it gives you a better deal uh one of the most popular things that people are doing now is they're getting the profit portal which basically gives you lifetime access to all of the crash courses that we're releasing as well as all of the older courses with phenomenal content in them Property Management course stocks real estate you name it so learn more at meetkevin.com Milton Friedman made the term long invariable lags famous everyone involved in the economy has been struggling with the question of what is the lag of Federal Reserve policy and conventional wisdom says it's 3 to 6 months but what we have here is a piece that talks about why is it taking so long for the pain of high interest rates from the FED to kick in and here's what we've got the smartness of smart money is actually potentially increasing the lag time for monetary policy now why is that well that's potentially because corporate borrowers as we've talked about previously are able to milk a ton of money off of higher money market rates compared to actually being squeezed by higher interest rates because they have so much cash but not only do they have so much cash because they financed a lot of debt at very low interest rates the current average coupon yield on bonds it's just basically a way of saying how much are these companies paying for Bond debt is 2.9% it's barely creeping up over 3% this is while the FED is sitting at 5 and a/4 to 5 1/2% almost 60% of the time before July 2020 so right after Co almost 60% of the time before that the the average rate that companies had paid was above 4% that's the historical level being above 4% and the reality is it's not just corporations but it's also homeowners locking in with 30-year fixed rate mortgages those incredibly inexpensive mortgage rate on top of that when yields were low institutional borrowers actually extended their terms which meant not only did they lock in lower rates but they did so for for even longer therefore this author argues that the Federal Reserve should be very cautious about raising rates even further because the impact has only begun to be felt and I think that's where we're starting to see some of the break and pain in real estate that could end up leading to a worse winter this cycle than we had last winter we'll see but we're lining up for patient and great opportunities at my real estate startup house act you know I've got courses on building your wealth at meetkevin.com you know I offer Financial advice at stack.com get stacked with stack Haack but my real estate startup is position to take great advantage of what we can do in the real estate market we're going to be patient about it we're studying every single Market individually and we're watching the changes like a hawk now startup investing isn't without risks but if you want to learn more go to house hack.com thank you so much for watching hope you found this helpfu
Comments 0