저자: Kevin · 외국인
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트럼프 사업 가치 관련 법정 공방을 브랜드 가치 관점에서 해석. 테슬라는 3년간 주가 정체, 인도량 435k로 생산량 소폭 상회했으나 가격 결정력은 업계 상대 우위, 장기 수익은 앞에 있다고 봄. 리튬아메리카스는 수익 없이 부채 증가하는 사기성 의심 종목으로 비판. 연방예산 통과 후 채권 가격 하락·금리 급등은 이상하며 대규모 국채 숏 포지션 가능성 제기, 숏 청산 시 금리 급락을 예상. 대형 충격 가능성 언급(시점 불명).
다듬은 글
and this is what we have it's a scam it's a sham this is nuts first of all we gotta briefly touch on Trump but then we get a tuck Tesla and oh my gosh what is happening in the economy I sent some massive massive and dirty Short Selling and we're going to talk about some implications for this because it can be a little dirty okay so what does this mean we'll talk about it let's get into it first Donald Trump wow no matter whether you like Donald Trump or hate Donald Trump you have to realize him going to the courthouse today even though he didn't need to go to the courthouse today is a perfect way for him to Market himself again that's the point every time Donald Trump goes to court or gets indicted or fights the system his fundraising comes plowing in it is a great marketing opportunity and think about what he is defending and this is why it's like double fact Brilliance and I know people who hate Donald Trump are getting mad at me saying but but from a marketing point of view he is going to court to defend his brand he is going to court to defend the value of his brand my best asset which is the brand in terms of value Coca-Cola take a look at their value they have a value the value of their brand is more than everything else put together yet the court or or the the prosecutors are trying to break down the value of his brand a through the actual case that they're presenting that he overvalued his properties and B potentially or likely as many would say through political persecution which also potentially hurts his brand but Donald Trump is saying my brand is extremely valuable how dare you try to break it down by weaponizing the political justice system and B who says what a brand is worth this is much more than just adoni T case this is really important for the future of America this kind of case because it says is the value of a brand what somebody believes it is or what everybody else thinks it is think about that implication for a moment you don't even have to go political to see wow that's actually a big deal Donald Trump invoked it himself he says look the value of Coca-Cola is its massive brand it's a name recognition everywhere and the emotion that evokes this case is not just about Donald Trump and his politics and whether or not Donald Trump's legal disclaimer suggesting hey don't believe whatever I tell you Banks if I say value of my property is 10 trillion dollars it is on you to do due diligence we have a clause in the contract which tells essentially buyer beware the contract is very very if you take a look and you speak to the banks and you will I hope you speak to the banks because the banks Got Paid in Full I hope you speak to the banks but we have a clause in the contract it's like a buyer beware Clause it says when you take a look at the financial statement don't believe anything you read this is up front and you know what Trump supporters are going to tell you yup that's absolutely right it is on the other business partner to or the person the counterparty right in this case a lending Bank to do their own due diligence and on the other side the people who hate Trump they say come on man you got to make accurate disclosures and then you get the realtors that are like I mean come on like we tell our sellers when in doubt disclose and disclose everything but then we also tell our buyers don't believe a word the seller says okay like come on like come on that's the business world right so it's like oh what side of the fence do you sit on right point is it's fascinating to me from a brand from like an entrepreneurial point of view to see what is now basically Donald Trump going to court to defend the value of his brand it's not even about the the case or the crime this that or whatever it's about defending the value of a brand and they're trying to take down the value of his brand while at the same time the opposite is happening right that's the weird thing so they're trying to lower the value of his brand but by Prosecuting him the value of his brand is actually going up in the eyes of those who love him laughs it's all very very interesting to me okay Tesla and then this massive short that's going on okay and the short has nothing to do with Tesla look a quick thing because I know people want me to talk about it and like all of Tesla's like the Tesla Community is kind of quiet about this and I'm like shut up well you are shut up like speak to the people okay it's the opposite of shut up speak speak on it yeah Tesla missed deliveries honestly at this point if you're a Tesla investor at 250 dollars you're not here for one quarter of deliveries how do I know that because you've been stuck in the same place for the last three years okay three years I kid you not you might not believe it you might not want to believe it it might piss you off cause it does me oh but just type in Tesla stock into Google and then see that it's at 250 bucks and then move your mouse over to 2020.
when it was also around 250 bucks it's kind of wild okay that's three years my eight-year-old was five my five-year-old was two I didn't know I was about to have twins I'm about to have twins by the way which is pretty uh pretty exciting within about uh probably four weeks maybe three weeks here if so knock on wood um the longer it takes the better they're I think they're only 33 weeks cooked and so I think we ideally want to cook them to at least 36 twins tend to come by 36 the longer the better you know 37 38 great kids are already measuring uh larger than usual uh but they're girls anyway uh so moving on to uh okay well let me finish on Tesla look Tesla had expectations of 455 deliveries 455 000 they delivered 435 uh but what's interesting is this is the first time in about two years that they've actually delivered more cars than they produced they delivered about 435 000 they produced 430 000.
remember back like two years ago when that flip-flopped the other way it's like oh my gosh Tesla's now making more than they're selling oh no prices are gonna have to come down that's exactly what ended up happening to happen like prices did have to come out so yeah that that did have to happen and that had to happen of the entire Auto industry so obviously that is a sign of a lack of pp pricing power right but relative to the entire Auto industry there was no doubt that Tesla has the strongest pricing power it's kind of like who's the fastest racer out of a bunch of losers okay like it's okay they have relatively the best pricing power and so then you have to ask yourself okay so how does that affect their long-term valuation because the reality is nobody's investing in Tesla to be flat for three years okay people are investing in testing to make money well personally I think the prospects of Tesla making substantial money are ahead of us not over the past three years the past three years are fighting inflation ramping factories ramping new vehicles ramping AI ramping FSD it's it's all sort of been in like the you had the hopium phase of Tesla stock now you went through the hard work phase and we're still in the hard work phase oh Tesla's now up 13 37 over the past five years let's go that's pretty leaked oh gamer talk anyway um so so now in my opinion the true test for Tesla is ahead of us what is the actual and I'm not talking about reservations nobody gives a crap about reservations other than clickbait artists on Twitter and they know people that Kevin isn't that the pot cutting the kettle black I mean I think I give pretty darn good perspective inside my videos and I try to Pat myself on the background just saying like the difference on YouTube is you could have like a little Sensational title but then you get in you get some like real content real me to the matter right that's what you want you want to get the bottom line that's kind of like what you get when you go to meet kevin.com and you're like oh wow those crash courses are a really good value that's the point they're like 10 to 15 crash courses I think we just added a couple uh and all these crash courses will be live by the end of the year starting soon here and uh really excited to get these crash courses out there some really good quality content coming it's all new by the way none of the crash courses or remakes of the or the old stuff or or chop UPS of the old stuff it's all brand new me kevin.com to learn more about that but anyway this is great for Tesla in my opinion prospects for Tesla could never be better the fact that it's flat for three years in my opinion I'm like let's go like that can increase my allocation to this stock over three years which is exactly what I've been doing uh that's not Financial advice for everyone right that's not saying you should either directly invest in Tesla or investor in ETF for the potential tax benefits of that you know what you do ultimately is up to you yeah I'm a financial advisor did pass my test by the way on Friday that was uh did my 65 last year series seven two weeks ago series 63 this Friday next Up's the 24 so wish me luck that's in two weeks from today so in my opinion the real profit of Tesla is ahead of us not behind and you know where the profit is not it's not in lithium Americas lithium America is down today because well they are collecting a billion dollars in debt and people are like oh well lithium Americas you know I want to invest in lithium so I'm going to allocate to lithium Americas because uh obviously it's in the name lithium so they must uh make money from lithium right wrong wrong this morning we went through the uh earnings for this company and like we basically had I don't want to offend people but I'm just going to do it because whatever okay like if if on this side of the screen is what fraud is and on this side of the screen over here is what legitimate company is okay this this LIC so far appears to be on this side it's not good it's not good why do I say that massive loans to an Argentinian company probably living in a fat fancy mansion 500 million dollars of cash but now taking on a billion dollars worth of debt now I realize that's going to offset you know it's going to increase the cash position they have as well they're investing in some more mines or more loans to themselves who knows uh but what you really want to pay attention to is the fact that this company doesn't make money when you go to their income and expense statement it's literally only an expense statement there is no income the only reason they had net income is because of a gain on a financial instrument measured at fair value that's it there's no income lithium Americas makes no money they literally say in their disclosures they make no money it's right here the company has not generated significant revenues from operations and has relied on equity and other financing to fund operations there it is June 30th 2023 lithium America's Corp wow who would have thought that your way to diversify into a lithium investment makes no money from lithium no wonder the darn thing on a weekly basis is going straight down it deserves to why the hell would I invest in this kind of garbage when I could invest in Tesla you know people are like uh but you're other stuck and face he's in the toilet hell yeah it's in the toilet hell yeah it's getting smoked you know it's not the only other stock he got you know we like the other ones too you know whether it's the Intel's or uh the amds the nvidias the asmls the tsmc you know it's great I still think PayPal is a little undervalued probably a value trap though they hit that woke segment there for a moment boy you touch that it goes dark like look what's happening to Disney uh of course higher for longer rates is hurting the finances but but which which we do you know going into a financial recession it's very difficult to call the bottom in uh in in finance related stocks but the point is none of these companies are a lithium Americas lithium Americas is a joke lithium Americas is an ad for come invest in lithium then we're gonna lend money to our You Know Rich Argentinian Mansion owner I don't know if that's true I'm I'm speculating why there all this money is going to Argentina I'm speculating I want to be clear that his opinion I don't know I can't speak for fact I can only show you what's on the actual earnings call and go this is sus okay so I showed you no income from operations that's us okay they've been around for years now they're raising another billion dollars to what have more income from no operations I I don't know I don't know and I and I real people like oh but more lithium is being discovered I'm like I don't care I want to see you extract it and then refine it purify it and sell it and make money whatever okay so look now we got to talk about this short selling problem because this is a complete disaster okay I smell something really fishy so this weekend the government passed a budget right they passed the budget for 45 days buy it and signed it whatever okay it's a bunch of nonsense and drama going on about somebody pulling the fire alarm minutes before the vote and the Republicans are like what the hell why would you do that and aoc's like he was in Fairfield how could you uh how could you blame them okay it's not exactly what she said it was more like uh he made an honest mistake how could you want to kick him out of Congress and the Republicans are like really really you just happen to push the emergency exit door right before the vote and then you know you lawyer up as soon as you get asked for questions you know that's a republican point of view who cares it's all it's all nonsense but what would you expect would happen after the government passes a budget I wanna legitimately ask you this what do you think would happen or should happen Okay two treasury bonds let me let me draw this okay because I I just don't think it'll be as impactful uh if I don't draw it because we have to understand this fully so everybody can get it okay because it's just not that hard okay let's say you have this little pretty little box right here okay I'm gonna put like a bow on it there we go a box with a bow see look it's like a Christmas gift okay what do you think would happen if I told you inside of that box was government risk okay government risk was in that box when government risk goes up the value of this box should go down right this makes sense so what happens when the government doesn't default and actually passes a budget yes I realize it's only for 45 days but buys themselves more time are you creating more risk in that box or less risk which should be obvious you're creating less risk so the value of this box should go up well when the value of this box goes up treasury yields go down because of the inverse relationship of how this works so anyway we agree value box should go up right the complete opposite markets are selling off the value of that box and treasury yields are skyrocketing sus that's really sus it's weird it shouldn't work that way and I know some people are like well the bad Market knows all and so the bond market Kevin they were just pricing in that Congress was going to pass a 45-day Kick the Can down the road Bill anyway because they they always do this kind of stuff so come on Kevin the bond market was already placing it in and I'm like you're smoking crack bond market didn't know that everybody was pissing themselves last week they were gonna have a government shutdown over the weekend and then the question was how much is it gonna hit GDP it's gonna be uh five basis points over 10 days it's gonna be uh five basis points over a week it's gonna be 10 basis points over a week and everybody's coming up with all these estimates bull freaking crap everybody knew you know we're gonna kick the can down the road of course of course like you and I knew that because that's what always happens but the market was still freaking out so the point is we would have expected treasury yields to go down I think we could all agree with that okay we expected treasury yields to go down and what the hell just happened the 10-year is up at almost 4.69 it's actually at 4.676 but close enough it's up 10 basis points today yields in Germany are up yields in Japan are up and then you think oh well maybe it's just a steepener right well then you go look at the two-year treasury which is also up seven basis points yes that means the inverted yield curve is actually steepening by three basis points if you don't even know what I just said in the last 20 seconds it really doesn't matter the point is this is the opposite of what should be happening okay government passes budget that is nearer or at a peak risk to treasuries are down yet bond prices plummet okay this smells like you know what it smells like it smells like the smelly smell the smelly smelly smell of massive Short Selling there is a massive short going on in the treasury market why because it's been extremely profitable and yeah maybe I'm a little pissy that TMF is going straight freaking down and that's true okay I bought this instrument at the blue line I'm getting screwed your boy Kevin just lost lots of okay I didn't put that much money on it okay but boy it is point is I put some money on this right there it was like slightly below the Blue Line like yes we're gonna put somewhere around here anyway I'm gonna put some money in here it was like yeah yeah that's right it was like 570.
yeah there it is it's slightly below the Blue Line 570 is somewhere around there okay now it's 457. damn it this right here is a bull Bond ETF this right here says that bond prices should go up obviously it's not happening they're going down why well because I believe there's massive short and I'm not trying to pull like an AMC or gme here or whatever I I just think this is the case look at this this is a month chart okay this is the month view of TMF okay that's every one of these sticks folks is one month okay not a week not a day one month it has been the most profitable short you could have had quite frankly since the end of 2020.
you could just straight up shorted bonds and you would have made money made money all throughout my campaign for governor made money well I guess for a little period of time there you would have lost money but if you just Diamond handed money money you see volume on TMF is going up dramatically because people realize okay maybe there's an opportunity here to actually go long the problem is this one's triple leveraged very risky instrument you really shouldn't touch it it's dangerous but anyway point is I think what you have is a massive amount of Short Selling in treasuries and I think I mean play this out for a moment if everyone who's an institution shorts treasuries will they make money in the short term because that's the trend the trend is your friend right but then guess what you do you end up breaking something and then when you break something maybe all your other shorts pay off but once something breaks that's the odds are where everybody goes okay now something broke now the Federal Reserve is probably going to come in in lower rates potentially and then guess what happens all the shorts cover and then they go long I I see this happening I see this happening this is literally what's going to happen okay here we are October 2nd I don't know when but it's gonna happen Something's Gonna hit the fan if the short selling keeps going on after something hits the fan it's not that that breaking is going to be so bad it's that all the short sellers are gonna go oh we pushed this far enough then we go long and then after we go long what ends up happening after we go long well after we go long all of a sudden treasure yields plummet absolutely plummet straight down they're taking the staircase up they will take the elevator straight down fast so enjoy High rates for a little while and enjoy the opportunity maybe to go buy some uh realistata uh because I think this uh there's gonna be quite a little bit of pain here very very soon so anyway thank you so much really appreciate y'all and we'll see you in the next one hope you like the bottom line report check out the crash courses at meatcoven.com tool
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