저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
워런 버핏 주주총회 내용을 정리하며 시장 폭락 여부를 분석. 버핏의 현금 보유는 투자 기회 탐색과 리스크 대비 목적이며, 장기적으로 미국 경제를 신뢰하므로 S&P500 등 인덱스 펀드 투자를 권장. 현 시점 폭락 가능성은 낮다는 견해이나 대규모 악재 시 변동성은 가능하다고 봄. 발언자는 개별 보유 종목(델타항공, 카니발 등)도 공개.
다듬은 글
hey everyone Kevin here I just want to make a quick note on some of my favorite parts of a Warren Buffett shareholder meeting yesterday I watched every single minute of every single word that Warren Buffett said and I want to give you the most important parts of it the most important lessons and most importantly I want to figure out does Warren Buffett think the markets gonna crash big-time again that is are we all doomed is that why he's got so much cash around or what the heck is going on and what what are the best parts of everything that was said well here it is let's just get right into it basically Warren Buffett looks at America as a moving train that moving train derailed in 2008 the Great Recession it crashed that's bad well now we sort of got a shock in that we kind of picked the moving train up and took it off the tracks and put it on the side in other words we're dealing with another shock or what he calls a test to the United States economy in fact he goes back to the first sort of tests the big test that the United States had within the last hundred years was well right after the Great Depression in fact he says if somebody invested a thousand dollars in the stock market right when he was born it would be worth just $170 two years later in other words it would have lost 83 percent of its value but had somebody just left the money there today that $1,000 would be worth over $170,000 that is every single $1 invested in that moving train would be worth over $100 today and this is why he really opens up with this big belief in as long as you believe in America and you believe in the direction of the Train get on the train there's no reason not to be on the train the best way to get on the train though is the least expensive way hey look you know what if you're a genius stock picker he says go for it but for most of us who don't have the time or the knowledge to pick stocks hop into the Train of an SP 500 index fund for example and this is me saying this you could pick up a fidelity total stock market index fund called FS ka X that's the sort of acronym or symbol for it it's not as pretty as like a Vanguard one but basically a fidelity total stock market index fund gets you really low fees and you could use that or you could buy with like m1 finance or chase you invest or many different platforms it's easy and you get a whole slice of the entire market kind of like what Warren recommends but look let's forget about this sort of background stuff let's focus more on the crash stuff and what the heck is going on basically Warren Buffett says hey look at a time like this you don't want to be investing in things like Treasury bonds even though he's got a ton of money in cash and equivalents equivalents basically being Treasury bonds he says the long-term money that you're gonna get from investing in cheap bonds like the government bonds very very low especially at a time where our central banks are taking the point of view of you know what we got to do whatever it takes to print money and to support the economy and we've been talking about Jerome Powell on this channel for a while and that's what Warren Buffett echoes he goes yeah we've got a lot of cash but don't do it to make money on your savings don't do it to make money on low interest rates on bonds there's a different reason why we have this cash which I'm going to explain in just a second starts off with the excitement you know nothing can stop America but he goes on to say hey you know what word a really weird time that all of a sudden we can have airline demand go to zero which basically means future airplane production demand at companies like Boeing is gonna go to zero and auto sales are basically zero and advertising has substantially declined you can't help but be a little bit nervous about the situation that we're in and when we look to what Europe did you see that well you've got Mario Draghi the european central bank leader from 2011 to 2014 and what happened they ended up with negative interest rates and next to no growth and what do we have today well today we have Jerome Powell going we're gonna do whatever it takes in America to make sure we have growth aka print that money burn and so even though Warren Buffett says hey you know what just invested in an index fund it's much cheaper than investing in some kind of brokerage where some money guys gonna move your money around or some fund manager who's a really good salesperson who's gonna get you to invest with them because they say they you a better return he completely disagrees with all of that and says if you're gonna give your money to somebody else just put it in an index fund which I have to kind of agree with I'd rather either buy real estate myself pick my own stocks or throw money into an index fund but I'm not gonna pay somebody else to invest my money in fact he says the most profitable part about the whole investing community is not the actual gains you make it's being a good salesperson and getting people to invest with you and then making money by being a good salesperson if you happen to be a good salesperson and you happen to have some decent level of production as well well Kali let the riches come over to you go get yourself your jet basically in so many words now here's the part where things get a little interesting we know that Warren Buffett in Berkshire Hathaway's cash pile has ballooned they've over a hundred twenty four billion dollars in cash and equivalence which equivalence is just a fancy way of saying things that are like cash only about twenty billion dollars is actual cold hard cash the rest of the stuff like Treasury bonds or things that could easily be converted into cash aka there's an opportunity let's dump these bonds and boom let's use that new cash that we have to go by so this is where the first warning comes from from Warren Buffett he says we have to prepare for everything and anything essentially because Jerome Powell printing money as much as he is at some point that's going to stop it's not sustainable to continue to just print money and this is true at some point that will stop and having cash is a way of insulating against the risk of the money printer stopping so to speak because look bottom line when the money printer is printing you want to buy things like real estate and stocks but if the money printer stops printing well then you might want to have cash for some opportunities especially if you see more of a deflationary market basically prices tend to go up when the money printers on and prices tend to go up less fast or not up maybe even down if the money printer stops so having cash prepares you for those opportunities now keep in mind as well warren buff is heavily invested in the business of insurance so it's a also important for him to have cash cushions available for crises that come up but the bigger lesson to us from his cash pile is this he says here's the thing if you invested in Berkshire Hathaway and you borrowed money to invest in Berkshire Hathaway on margin like you took out debt to invest in our stock well our stock went down in value 50 percent three different times somebody who didn't borrow money could have just bought and held through that time but if you were borrowed or you were leveraged on margin you might have had to have taken a significant haircut in each of those cases and basically that would have made your total long-term return way lower so be very mindful and careful of debt in fact later in his talk he goes into this this sort of rant about this lady who was confused when she asked Warren Buffett hey you know what do i what should I invest in I've got some money and he's like well do you have credit card debt and she goes well yeah but I want to know what I need to invest in he's like wait but what's the interest rate on your credit card oh it's like 18% but what do I invest in and essentially Warren Buffett says she got mad because Warren Buffett's like lady pay off your credit card that is the best investment you or I could make at this point is not paying that insane interest rate that's just you didn't say this word but basically that's just dumb and so we can circle back to what Warren Buffett thinks about cash he sees cash as as well two things one it is the perfect tool for growth opportunities so if all of a sudden a really good deal comes up he could use that cash to swoop in and buy it but he does say hey look the more cash you have the harder it is to buy deals for example this is me making this example if I have $500,000 in cash and a really good fixer-upper house comes up for $400,000 and it's gonna cost me 50k to fix it up I can move on that I could turn around flip that house for 600 or $650,000 sweet I just made $100,000 on $450,000 I could do that in my spare time on weekends but the problem is when you have a hundred twenty four billion dull of cash it's kind of hard to go around flipping houses he goes and does that same deal makes the samsn't worth the time of a company with a hundred twenty four billion dollars it is worth the time for all of us watching this any of us individuals who either own a house or don't own a house yet it is worth us investing in real estate because we can make massive sums of money with very little money and very little risk I talk about all that stuff in my programs linked below but the second thing that Warren Buffett says cash is so important for is insulation and risk so one opportunities but for him the opportunities have to be really large and that's why his cash balance keeps growing he's not really seeing a spectacular opportunity to invest right now and the second thing is he wants to have insulation because the last thing he wants is some mega crash to happen and then not have cash to insulate himself to where all of a sudden they have to close businesses or sell businesses at a loss at the worst possible time especially since he goes on to say that hey look it's very normal for businesses to die Berkshire Hathaway used to be a textile mill they tried for 20 years to get that thing up and running and profitable it never worked it never would have worked it wasn't destined to work that's capitalism businesses that aren't destined to work die and this is partially why he's out of the airlines which I made a separate video on the airline's so I won't go deep on that but he sees that same kind of change happening to autos to advertising to shopping malls this makes a lot of sense retail is going to change office space probably even a bigger transition that he sort of emphasized is that people are going to realize I don't need all this office space I can work from home and use the free Facebook version of zoom and not even have to pay zoom to teleconference but then that begs the question why would Warren Buffett was asked when the value of Berkshire Hathaway went down 30% in March why did Warren Buffett not repurchase shares that is why didn't he take some of the cash he had and buy some of his own stock basically if you believe in your company so much and it's 30% off why didn't you buy more and this is a very valid question that has left a lot of concerns well his first reaction to this question in my opinion is the most important because this is the first thing that came out of his mouth his answer was well it was only that low for a very short period of time roughly a day or two in other words yeah in hindsight we looking away to drop 30% and you didn't buy yet when you look back you go when we zoom in a little bit it was only there for like a day or two you'd have to be almost kind of relatively fast to bounce on that that was the initial first reaction which I think is important that is going to tie into what he thinks about the rest of the market the second reason he gave though is very interesting but it only makes sense when you keep in mind the first thing that I just said the second thing he said was he also didn't see enough of a relative discount for his company's value to buy his own company's shares based on the prices where they were now he didn't care about what the prices were in the past he cares about the prices now and considering the uncertainty going forward so let me clean that up a little bit because I know that was a little bit messy basically looking at Berkshire Hathaway his own company he had the opportunity to rebuy shares but it was only down 30% for a very short period of time a day two days and they didn't act on that I imagine it probably takes a little bit more time for a large company like that compared to somebody like me who could just take out my iPhone and go oh I'm buying that really quick probably takes them a little bit more time to deliberate and decide what they want to do I'm sure they were thinking about it but they didn't make a decision quick enough during that time so then you wonder okay well then let's go back to it maybe being down 15% or down 10% from its highs or even down 20% from its highs well between that range that 20 to 10% discount Warren Buffett says there's too much basically risk to say that is a good value because there are so many unknowns related to the roni rona so yeah 30% off may have been a good opportunity but they were too slow to bounce on that and at 10 to even 15% off now it's just not enticing enough to say let's jump in on that deduction now or that discount now given all of the uncertainty so this is where we get to the big question is the market going to crash again there's Warren Buffett hoarding cash because he sees another big market cat crash coming up well for this I see two possible scenarios here possible option number one and this goes back to his biography of the snowball business life anyway I'll link that book down below great book anyway in that he was always a proponent of buying when he knew or could make reasonable projections about the future earnings of a company because of the roni Ronis it's kind of hard to reasonably predict what's going to happen it's very difficult to look at the airlines and say okay well in two years I think they'll be back at 80% capacity based on what based on what historical evidence do we have that they're going to be back at 80 percent what if they're back at 70 percent well now that company could be losing money into their years instead of profitable what if they're back at 90 percent who knows there's nothing historical that gives us any kind of guidance sure we could go back to the Spanish flu but come on we didn't have Delta and all these commercial airlines flying at the prices they are now with an oil crisis going on there's so many crazy things happening right now which all is something else he touched on and said it's gonna be years before all this excess inventory is essentially worked off but with all these unknowns there's too much uncertainty for Warren Buffett to establish value right now and because his uncertainty gauge is so large he's basically saying I can't tell you if there's a good deal out there right now because there's too much unknown and this makes sense that's just option one though and that doesn't necessarily mean that the markets going to crash it just means he's kind of waiting for the cards to fall where they may option number two and this is a more cynical option an opinion that's floating around is that Warren Buffett's 89 years old if he got the row near owned us he would have some big big issues if so big that the impact of this coronavirus could potentially be having a disproportionate effect on him and his investing opinion and his opinion of the future of America even though he's still long America he believes that maybe the next 5-10 years might be so rocky because of this possibly in a sort of inflated way because of his own personal age the fact that he started out this discussion by saying I've been stuck in this house for seven weeks I haven't put a tie on it's just been a matter of what sweat pants do I want to wear today and he's probably personally very fearful about this even though he says he does not let fear enter his psychology when he's thinking about investing there is the argument that this is probably the first greatest shock in Warren Buffett's entire career that is specifically targeted almost specifically targeted or maybe especially targeted to people of his age that's just a second opinion I'm not saying which one I agree with I'm gonna give you my opinions now and then I want to hear yours now full transparency 4.2 percent of my investments into stocks not considering real estate just stocks are in Delta Airlines five point one percent is in carnival and six point two five percent is in I have more money in companies like Apple Tesla JPMorgan Chase Disney and others much more money invested into companies like those but I want to be fully transparent with some of my holdings here so I would say based on what Warren Buffett just discussed he probably pretty well bags on about 15% of the stocks I own which is a very small minority of the overall portfolio that I have but here's my POV we had the most massive scary shock ever to our economy and to our psyche our own personal fear in March think back for a moment to the drama over toilet paper remember the stock market circuit breakers those things going off like every think about how bad the news was for weeks on end in March a lot of that was driven by straight-up fear we were utterly clueless we didn't have any sight of a potential bottom we had no potential treatment for this no potential ideas - when a vaccine might happen no thoughts about reopening concerns that we might be a lockdown until December for us to revisit March prices in the stock market in my opinion we're going to have to see a very large shock and buy shock I mean like some very large bad information and I'm not just talking about worse unemployment or worse GDP numbers a lot of that's already expected we're gonna have to have something new like this virus mutated and things are getting worse none of the treatments are working and the vaccines are working then I think we will see a massive rika lapse of pricing I don't believe Warren Buffett says there's going to be a massive rika lapse of pricing I think he's very conservative and is taking a very smart POV I agree with him it is better to be conservative this is what I teach in like programs the best and style of investing is being highly conservative that's why I only buy real estate below market value I don't buy market value real estate I don't buy new construction real estate I don't buy overpriced multifamily real estate and only buy multi-family if it's under price the reason is because unless I can guarantee I'm getting a good deal on something I'm not interested in investing in it and I believe Warren Buffett is the same so I don't believe Warren Buffett is saying the market's going to crash again I certainly don't think the market is going to crash substantially unless there's some really big bad new information that comes out but it is possible and without a doubt there are going to be read days again in the future I just don't think Warren and I certainly don't believe in myself see another March Madness essentially happening in the stock market with circuit breakers tripping all over the place again at least not for a while or unless some really bad new information comes out now I want to give you one more big piece of advice from Warren Buffet but before I tell you that I just want to remind you that right now is the perfect opportunity to open that description link down below click on the little button that allows you to get life insurance within just five minutes honestly you can do it within two minutes you can Apple pay for it boom you're signed up just like that the younger you are the cheaper it is he had a free quote super easy to do Lauren and I have it well remember if you deposit $100 or more it can be more just not less if you deposit $100 or more ebel and then you could buy yourself a slice of the united states economy as well now let me talk about the psychology that I thought was brilliant or at least the way he described it today because it's one that I believe in as well Warren Buffett said that imagine you buy a farm and every single day your neighbor screams prices at you going hey I'll buy your farm for as an example five dollars an acre how about today I'll pay you six dollars an acre hey how about today I'll pay you four dollars an acre and it was something a bottom-line that I thought was so brilliant was he said why is it that in stocks the louder that person becomes screaming smaller numbers the more tempted we are to sell think about that weird thing for a moment think about that if we by Delta stock at twenty five dollars and the next day somebody goes I'll give you twenty four dollars hey hey I'll give you twenty three dollars today hey yo today I'll give you thirteen dollars the lower that number becomes the more psychologically worried we are about our stock and all of a sudden we're like okay okay I'll sell it to you for thirteen dollars that does that happen for example in real estate imagine that if you were that farmer and the dudes like I'll give you five dollars an acre now I know you pay ten I'll give you five today and then the next day rolls around I'll give you two dollars an acre come on the price keeps going down you may as well cash out now we as the land owner would look at that dude going dude you're nuts yeah out of your mind like thanks for letting me know a price quote but I don't care I ain't sellin it doesn't matter your opinion of what I bought doesn't matter the only thing that matters is my opinion of value and what I bought and that's exactly what Warren Buffett says and preaches the only thing that matters is your opinion of the future cash flows and prospects of the company and if you don't know how to analyze the future prospects and cash flow of a company by an index fund and of course my course is linked below thank you all so much make sure to subscribe really appreciate you all being here and folks we will see you next time
Comments 0