저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준 달라스 총재 로버트 카플란 인터뷰를 근거로 추가 재정부양(경기부양금·실업수당 등)이 연말~내년까지 필요하다는 주장. 카플란의 2020년 실업률 약 20%→연말 10%, 2분기 전년비 -30% 전망, 연간 GDP -4~-5% 전망을 인용. 인플레이션은 1~2년 내 둔화 후 2023~2025년 연준 대차대조표로 인해 부각될 수 있으며 금리는 2023년까지 저위 유지 가능성 언급. 영상 후반은 구독·강의 홍보 위주.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, this is Kevin. I know we're looking for more information about the next stimulus package, CARES Act number two, phase four. So, I just listened to a full interview with the president of the Dallas Federal Reserve, Robert Kaplan. And it gives us a little insight into the thoughts of those who work at our central bank, which is very important, because you know how Congress works.
Congress, the people who will vote on the next phase of stimulus, often look to data and Federal Reserve proposals to decide whether to pursue further stimulus. Therefore, what the chairman of the Fed , or rather, the president of the Bank of Dallas, said is very, very important. I listened to the entire interview.
I'll give you a quick summary now, and then I'll give you my thoughts, and we'll see why this is so important for incentive payments. So, this was an interview with Fox Business, and again , it doesn't matter if you're left, right, or centrist. We want to get information, as they say, firsthand . And that's probably the best we can get until next week, when we see what Congress actually says.
Because, let me tell you, all the different offers we're getting aren't really helping us much right now . But this is good analytics. So, here's what Robert Kaplan said in response to the host's question. The host asked, "What about further stimulation? Where will it be needed?" Robert Kaplan answers, "Here's the thing.
Most of what we do... I'll paraphrase a little bit. Most of what we do is lending. And I quote: " We are the lender of last resort." And because we are the lender of last resort, we cannot replace things like lost income or unemployment benefits. These are examples of incentives. Aid to states and local governments, aid to specific industries, and other forms of fiscal stimulus that can help accelerate growth will be needed.
Then he goes on, " We're probably going to have 20% unemployment this year. We're going to end the year with about 10% unemployment, and we're going to need stimulus, quote, "for the rest of the year and into next year," end of quote, so that we can grow faster, so that we can contain this unemployment and get back to growth.
Okay, let's pause, because there's more to say about that. But let's pause and try to parse what he just said. So he said they're the lender of last resort, which essentially means they're a bank and they can make loans to businesses. That's why we keep hearing about more and more bailouts for large, medium, and small companies.
The Federal Reserve is now going to buy municipal bonds to bail out cities. They're going to, you know, help support PPP so that small businesses can continue to get loans. They're going to support mortgages, so that the housing market doesn't break and collapse. These are all things that the central bank is designed to do, in fact, to ensure that the market is stable.
So how does this relate to stimulus payments? Well, Robert Kaplan says, look, we can only do so much of the job. We're doing the best we can. What we need is Congress, the fiscal authority. That was a quote he used, referring to Congress and the president. We need them to ensure that the stimulus continues, and in his words, I'll say it again, that was his quote: "through the rest of the year and into the year after." Because as we learned from Jerome Powell's talk, which I covered in the video, maybe two days ago.
Jerome Powell said that if we don't have stimulus, we're going to have long-term damage to the productivity of our country. So people will be out of work for too long, and the lack of money today will actually turn into a long-term disease that will sink the economy in the long run. Nobody wants that.
Nobody doesn't want the economy to be in bad shape in the long run. So what else does Robert Kaplan say that leads me to this conclusion that is pretty clear to me : we need fiscal stimulus, which he defined as income and unemployment benefits. What else can we take from what he said? Well, he goes on to say that he thinks the second quarter contraction, the contraction in the economy, is going to be really bad in April, May, and June, up to 30% year-over-year, which is just taking the quarterly figure and multiplying it by four.
At the end of the year, he thinks we're going to see a GDP figure, net for the whole year, somewhere between -4% and -5%. That's just unheard of. That's very, very bad. And remember, these are data people. If the data people are in the banks, in the central banks—not Chase Bank, but in the central banks, the ones that print money.
If They're panicking and they're going to tell Congress, "Hey, listen, these numbers are bad." We need stimulus through the end of this year and next. Hello, we can't do that. " You have to do this." I think they're pretty straightforward. They're pretty clear here." Hey Congress, we need new stimulus payments in some form or another.
We have to support this economy." Let's see what he says next. By the way, he points out that this whole crisis was not caused by a weak economy, but by a health problem. But he acknowledged that there were some chronic problems in our economy. High debt in some corporations, suboptimal business investment, and then he added that consumers took a hit.
Or, again , we took a hit. We are 70% of the economy. You and I buying Beats headphones or iPads or iPhones is 70% of the economy, and we took a hit. So he's essentially saying, " Look, we're helping the 30% that we can." We are trying to help businesses. We are trying to help large companies. We do all this by ensuring the availability of credit , but we cannot help consumers .
In fact, when we lower interest rates, we do some harm to consumers because we destroy savings accounts, which I've argued many times on this channel, why savings accounts are a real curse. However, this is just my subjective opinion. Sorry. He says he expects growth to resume in the third and fourth quarters, but again, not without further support, not without more consumer support .
Do you remember this whole oil crisis that's happening? Yes, he believes that the oil crisis will not return to relative normality until 2022. And even then, oil production will be lower, which means we could see lower gasoline prices for a while. Then, when asked, and we hear this often, okay? It seems like every time we hear, "Okay, fine.
Stimulus, you know, for the rest of the year and into next year." We're not exactly sure what form of stimulus he's recommending, just some form of stimulus. Obviously, we're hoping for some kind of direct payment to consumers, because he's clearly saying, "Listen , 70% of the economy is consumers, and they need stimulus." Well, then he says, "When do you..." well, he's asked, "When do you worry about inflation?" And he says, "We're going to have disinflation in the next year or two ." Which essentially means less inflation, lower inflation.
But it's interesting. Then he says, "I'm worried about the next two years, when we get back to full capacity with the stimulus that we need." He keeps saying that we need this stimulus. And the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is going to cause inflation problems in the long term. That's 2023, 2024, 2025.
That's when this whole inflation problem is going to become more acute. So right now, while Jerome is printing money, we don't expect any inflation, at least while rates are low. When he was asked directly, "So you're saying that interest rates are going to stay low, at zero, until 2023?" He nodded, meaning yes, 2023 is a good guess.
I think so, but he said rates will stay low for longer, nodding his head. So how do we put all these pieces together? How do we make sense of all this stuff that's going on right now? Remember, the Federal Reserve says, " Listen, we're doing everything we can to support the economy ." But hey, fiscal authorities, which is Congress and the president, we're economists here.
We're telling you that the consumer is the one who's being "dumped," which is all of you watching this video. They make up 70% of the economy. It's like when you click on the link in the description and buy life insurance, it's good for the economy. Or when you buy one of my programs to learn how I think about money, how I create wealth, the psychology of real estate investing, and why savings accounts are bad, and what to do instead.
When you join my programs, you also learn to create wealth . And by joining me, you are supporting the economy. So, essentially, you have to... if you care about the economy and your neighbors, you have to join me. Okay. But, anyway, obviously, we have a pretty clear push from the Federal Reserve. We have Jerome Powell, who spoke two days ago.
So, we have Robert Kaplan, the very active president of the Dallas Federal Reserve, who says, " Hey, stimulus, people." So the main takeaway from all of this is that this is really good news. This is information that Congress is going to get on a silver platter. So if you're worried and trying to figure out what's on the minds of Congress, I guarantee you that all of this information and updates that I'm providing is exactly what they're getting.
Maybe they're getting a little bit more. I imagine they have some inside information that we, the public, don't have, and they certainly are chatting with each other, but be sure to subscribe. If you can subscribe before I hit 500,000, welcome to the first half- million audience . If you subscribe after 500,000, welcome to the second half of the journey to a million subscribers.
I really appreciate you all. Seriously, it's just amazing that I even said those words. It's crazy. But it's good anyway. Stay tuned . There's a lot of really good economic data from this interview. It's really interesting to hear his thoughts on the fact that interest rates could stay low for more than just a year, and maybe until 2023, and then we'll start worrying about inflation.
Okay, so that means we have a little time to gather our strength. In the meantime, keep your fingers crossed for more stimulus. Knock on wood. Go get yourself a cup of coffee, guys. I'll make myself another cup. coffee, and see you next time. Thanks for watching.
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