저자: 40Finance진행자 · 외국인
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피터 린치의 PEG 비율 기준(1.0 이하 저평가)으로 빅테크를 점검한 영상. 2025년 컨센서스 추정치를 가정하면 메타(약 2.0)와 아마존(약 1.7)은 기준 초과, 구글(약 1.66~1.77)은 근접, AMD(약 0.5~0.6)와 엔비디아(약 0.37 내외, 2025년 EPS 성장률 약 127%) 등은 기준 이하로 저평가 가능성 제시. 다만 애널리스트 추정치가 빗나가면 주가가 하락할 수 있다고 강조하며 추정치의 불확실성을 언급함.
다듬은 글
hey welcome to the 40 Finance Channel everybody today we're going to be talking about some tech stocks and their Peg ratios to see if we can uncover uh any deals or perhaps change our mindset about stocks that we think are expensive and maybe they're not uh and the idea for this came from this tweet that you see right here um I don't know how to pronounce sheay Bor but his at stock saavy if you're interested and the Tweet says have you ever heard of PEG ratio Peter Lynch's goto metric under 1.0 signals a bargain over 2.0 looks pricey let's see how big Tech measures up as we enter 2025 and if I can highlight this if it stays on the screen yep um you know he he goes down the board from Apple and then down here we have uh AMD and again the goal is to get under one if if you're just going to follow Peter Lynch's strategy by the book and that gives us only a couple uh tsmc Nvidia AMD now for what we're going to do here today I'm going to focus on some of the American companies that are right on the border uh So Meta Amazon Google AMD and Nvidia and we'll take a look at these numbers and see if they're true and what do we think of the valuation all right now a quick background summary on this whole Peter Lynch uh PEG ratio thing I'm just going to use the Google AI overview here Lynch believed that a fairly priced company's PE ratio would equal its growth rate meaning its PEG ratio would be one he used the PEG ratio as a Stock Investing criteria and considered a peg of one or less to be very good okay so that's just an expanded summary of what we saw in the tweet and a quick review here of the PEG ratio Formula price to earnings ratio divided by the earnings per share growth rate so sometimes when you hear growth people could be talking about Revenue they could be talking about earnings they could be talking about debt uh but most likely they're talking about Revenue so you have to be careful here on which metrics you use we're talking very specifically about the earnings per share growth rate now scrolling down here they give a couple of super simple examples in case you're still trying to catch up to this if you had Acme cars price per share is $100 earnings per share this year is $5 100 divided 5 gives you your p ratio of 20 they grew their earnings grew 15% year-over-year so 20 divided by 15 PEG ratio 1.33 same thing different companies price per share is $50 earnings per growth this year is $2 that is 25% up from the year before so 50 / 2 gives you a ptio of 25 and then you take the 25 you divide it by the growth rate the earnings growth rate of 25% and there you go you get to an even one now if you remember back just a couple seconds ago we're looking for PEG ratio very specifically under 1.0 so let's dig in I did cherry pick some of these stocks they're all American companies we're going to use Seeking Alpha here uh to get a feel of their valuations going forward um if you're new to the channel I use Seeking Alpha all the time they have an amazing special going on right now if you want to support my channel Link in the description get a full year membership as well as a 7-Day free trial on the front end works out to be I think less than $20 a month to access all these metrics and tools all right now for meta if we go back to the original tweet he has it projected as a 2.0 on the PEG ratio we are looking at 2025 it's very uh clear 2025 PEG ratio we are not looking backwards we are looking ahead so in order to do that you have to find a source of projections and you have to figure out if you believe those projections or not for today's example we're just going to assume that all of the numbers on the board are going to come to fruition exactly as they are projected But please understand when you're looking ahead whether it's forward PE forward Peg forward whatever uh it it is a consensus uh across several analysts it doesn't necessarily mean it's locked in stone and that's what you start to see in the stock market is when projections uh or our reality starts coming in less than projections that's when you see prices fall but today let's just entertain uh what we have on the screen for meta 2025 estimate price to earnings ratio using consensus earnings estimates 2419 so 24 times uh estimated earnings now what is the EPS growth rate if they were to hit this number again looking at 2025 that would be about 12% if this came true so 24 here divided by 12 is a two and if we go back to the tweet on meta is right there at a two might be some other decimals in there if you really got uh deep into the math but for the most part this is very accurate all right Amazon Amazon is next let's take a look again 2025 PE ratio is projected at 3465 and then if we go to the EPS growth rate of 20 34 / by 20 comes out to about 1.7 um I think on this chart yeah had 1.8 but whatever uh we are over the Peter Lynch Target uh for pay ratio on those first two companies let's take a look at Google and see if there's anything different there 2025 p ratio projected at we'll just call it 20 and if we look down at 2025 for the EPS growth rate it's 20 divided by 12 and that comes out to 1.66 which is fairly represented here uh 1.77 so just rounding up again I'm going to skip asml and m mostly because they are not uh based here in the United States and there's certainly nothing wrong with foreign companies I think right now with tsmc it's always a little dicey with the China relations and then with asml and the the Netherlands I'm just not sure how all the conversion rates and stuff stack up so I'm just going to stay away from the whole thing uh we will go to Nvidia now Nvidia and AMD our last two here those are projected if you're just going to take the Peter Lynch strategy straight out of the book these look like amazing deals all right we'll start here with AMD we're looking at 2025 estimated p ratio for that time 27.7 go down to what would be the estimated growth rate if they were to hit those numbers and it's spoton 54% EPS growth projected from 2024 into 2025 so that's pretty amazing um and it really does put your PEG ratio uh this tweet is 100% correct I mean I have it at 0.
five he has it at 6 but either way you're coming in well under the Peter Lynch uh Benchmark let's check out Nvidia 2025 p ratio projected at 4749 EPS growth rate for 2025 is at 127 and it's crazy cuz on my math you get 367 when you take this and divide it by this that's even lower than you see on this uh chart that they made for the tweet in fact it's you know 50% lower um but either way point proven uh if you're going to follow the Peter Lynch strategy you certainly have something to look at here with nid now what's interesting and I think you know if you follow the stock market you know that uh there's a lot of discussion around nvidia's valuation and if you look at it from some of the traditional metrics so if you go you know they're not I don't think they're a gap company but um you know you're looking for your PE to go down over time and and your growth hopefully to go up uh so if we take PE trailing 12 months at 52 We compare it to the forward which is 47 it's at least going in the right direction and then uh same thing price to sales you'd want that to go down so 30X to 26x um even price to cash flow you want the multiple to come down certainly headed in the right direction but nobody would look at some of these numbers and say uh unbelievably cheap but when you go to the growth and this is where all this stuff is coming from so this year you had the 152 which is crazy uh next year you got the 93% which is still absolutely bananas for a company this size and then even down on EPS growth which we already talked about you know you were 200% EPS growth this year over that and next year is looking again like triple digits it's a pretty amazing story um can they do it can they keep it going that's something that will be analyzed you know all the way through next year but at least for purposes of what we did here today I'd have to say uh you know shout out to stock savy Shay for putting this together as a way to sort of highlight some of these stocks all right guys before you go don't forget to check out that special offer for Seeking Alpha in the description helps support my channel uh let me know what you think of the peg ratios and looking ahead on them and if you see any other deals maybe that weren't represented on this video today hope everybody's doing well we'll see you on the next video
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