저자: JeffBeers · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아는 게임 매출 비중이 크지만 데이터센터(성장률 53%)와 자율주행이 성장 동력이다. 재무는 탄탄(현금 160억 달러, 부채 거의 없음)하나 P/E 66.7로 고평가 구간이다. 애널리스트 평균 목표가 379.58(현재가 대비 약 6% 상승 여여력)이며 장기 투자에는 좋지만 310-300 수준 조정 후 매수가 나을 수 있다고 봤다. 투자 참고용 엔터테인먼트라는 면책 고지도 포함.
다듬은 글
Welcome to Channel 40 Finance. My name is Jeff Beers. Today I'm reviewing Nvidia stock for the remainder of 2020. This is happening as America begins to open up. We are approaching mid-June, and Nvidia has risen significantly, apparently after a drop. So is this a good time to invest in Nvidia and what does the future hold for us?
A quick disclaimer : As always, my stock tips and predictions are provided for entertainment purposes only. Please consult a financial advisor before investing in the stock market. However , if you enjoy stock market analysis, investment advice, and personal finance videos, please subscribe to the 40 Finance channel.
Thank you to everyone who has already signed up. So, hopefully you're familiar with Nvidia's business. They are a chip manufacturer. But they have scaled their business significantly, almost to the platform level, a graphics processing platform, as well as for applications in databases, AI, and autopilot.
We'll look at all of this in a moment. But let's look at Nvidia's core business as a whole. And you see what I highlighted, you have to look from the bottom up, but games account for 51% of their revenue for fiscal year 2020. The growth rate is 11% in 3 years. Data centers are 27% of annual revenue, but they have a growth rate of 53%.
Next, look at the visualization: 11% of revenue for the 20th year with a growth rate of 13%, and the automotive sector, which is only 6% with a growth rate of 13%. So when we think about Nvidia's profits now, the lion's share, or at least half, comes from gaming, specifically PC gaming. Although they have some experience in other platforms, most of their revenue comes from the development of computer games, eSports, etc., where Nvidia provides powerful graphics processing.
However, the growth story in the future, since the penetration rate in the gaming sphere is very high, will be related to either databases, where Nvidia uses its chips to work faster, or machine learning. And on the automotive side, which is almost barely visible on the radar right now, with $700 million, Nvidia has self-driving projects that have barely even hit the market yet.
So, this is the next growth driver for this company. So, let's take a look at Nvidia stock where it is today . The share price at the time of recording was 356.80. It's Monday morning. I made some of these slides last night . It seems like we're down a little bit today, down to about 350. The 52-week range is 142 to 367.
And you can see that here on the annual chart. So , in June 19th you were right around the 150 mark. And now you've already climbed to the 350s. The P/E ( price/earnings) is 66.7. And we get a very small dividend of 0.18%. as of today. I expect that in the future they will probably grow very slowly.
Forward P/E 44, revenue over the last 12 months – 11.7 billion. Nvidia has $16 billion in cash and virtually zero debt. So this is a very successful company in terms of assets and financial condition. And that's why I believe we will see gradual dividend growth in the future . But in the short term, they are likely focused on investments to diversify at least a little beyond gaming and protect all of their revenue streams.
Therefore. So, what is Nvidia worth today from a valuation perspective? To figure this out, I usually look at the valuation figures for the last few quarters, trying to understand if the price is high compared to the revenues they are generating. Look at the top highlighted line: current P/E 65.54. It doesn't take long to see that Nvidia shares were trading at a P/E of 19 in 2019 alone.
However, for the last few quarters it has been in the 60 range. But 65 now is the highest we have seen in a long time. With forward P/E, the story is essentially the same. The 44 indicator is the highest we have seen in the last few quarters. And little changes if you look at the price- to-sales and price-to- book value ratios.
Although the changes since January 2020 are minor, the bottom line is that Nvidia's price is higher today than it was before. I don't think this is a surprise to anyone, as these monumental growth stories are certainly valued at a premium. So maybe if you haven't opened a position yet, you might decide to wait for a general market downturn or some bad news from Nvidia to try to save a couple of dollars.
Well, let's take a look at the TipRanks panel to see what top analysts think about Nvidia . As always, thank you TipRanks. I'm a paid subscriber and TipRanks really helps me easily evaluate analyst opinions in one place. It also offers data on insider sentiment, hedge fund activity, and more that goes far beyond what you see in standard Yahoo Finance or CNBC reports.
My affiliate link is in the description if you're interested in learning more and supporting the channel. From Nvidia's perspective, we have 27 top analysts with a " buy" rating for Nvidia. Three "hold", one " sell". Average target price—379.58. That's 6% above the current price, but it feels like Nvidia is definitely approaching the upper end of its targets.
One analyst has a target of 430, while another, a bear, has a lower target of 260. So what's the bottom line on Nvidia, at least in my opinion? Well, for starters, this is a company with excellent fundamentals. Sure, the P/E ratio is higher now than it was in the past, but when you consider debt management, cash on hand, vision for the future, and a few other trump cards in other industries, this is a very good stock for the long term.
However, the biggest potential for revenue growth is not in games, where they essentially don't even compete with anyone. It's in data centers that have already shown that three-year average annual growth rate of about 53%, or whatever it was on the first slide. And then self-driving or automated driving—again , the auto industry, they only got $700 million from the auto sector last year.
If they can delve deeper into this industry, particularly into autopilot or some other processors for cars, there is a good chance that this will make a significant contribution to profits. And of course, it's not as incredible as we might think, because of how Tesla and others have changed the world so recently.
If Nvidia has any disadvantages, we have already partially considered them. The current price may be a bit too high. It would be nice to go in the 310-300 area during the next pullback. I just think the premium is too high right now. However, it is a great company for long-term investment. So, if you're already in business and using cost averaging , I personally don't see a problem with it.
But at some point it will be wiser to wait on the sidelines until the price drops a bit. Probably due to the general market pullback. One interesting point: we are recording this video in early June, and their investor day is on June 9th. So it will be interesting to see how things are going with data centers, how the dreams of autopilot and growth prospects are progressing in 2020, and what the forecasts are for 2021 and beyond.
So, this will be a key presentation on the future prospects . Will Nvidia be able to further diversify its revenue sources and when should we expect greater results in this direction? In summary, as I said, Nvidia is a great stock with all the components you want to see: sound financial management, growth plans, and a growing industry, or rather, several growing industries.
Therefore, it definitely deserves a place in your portfolio. This doesn't have to be a separate action. There are many ETFs that have Nvidia shares in their composition. Well, friends. I hope you enjoyed this Nvidia review. Please like and subscribe if that's the case. See you in the next video.
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