저자: JeffBeers · 외국인
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엔비디아는 장기 성장주로 매력적이며, 데이터센터 사업이 빠르게 성장(3년 CAGR 53%)하고 있다. 2021년 2월 실적발표 기준 목표가를 PE 65 × EPS 10.06 = 653달러로 제시하며, 현재 주가 대비 약 14% 상승을 전망한다. 단기 변동성 속에서도 PE 50 이하로 떨어지면 매수 기회로 본다.
다듬은 글
hey welcome investors to the 40 finance channel my name is jeff beers in this video we're going to take a look at nvidia stock through the rest of 2020 and right up to the start of 2021 nvidia i think it's pretty obvious it's a solid long-term play if you get in now over the next five years you're you're probably going to do pretty well with their technological advances but where are things going to trend over a shorter term in the next five months so if you're looking to get into nvidia stock or maybe add to your existing portfolio then this will interest you disclaimer as always my stock picks and projections are just my opinion for your entertainment talk to a professional before jumping into investing now of course if you do like stock market investing going deep on stocks like nvidia then please give this video a like and subscribe that way you'll be sure to see all my stock analysis i publish three or four videos a week so if you want to keep up to date on what i'm talking about then definitely subscribe and as a free bonus if you join my email list i've got my 15-minute stock analysis guide that just came out a week or two ago lots of great hacks in there for noobs and for existing investors free resources to help you build a better watch list and do quick research when you see those new ticker names that you want to dig into all right let's take a quick look at nvidia's core business what are they selling what are the categories and how does the growth look in the future all right this is straight out of nvidia's most recent earnings report and you see the four categories up top gaming data center professional visualization and automotive we'll start at the left gaming 51 of last year's revenue and the most important metrics there you could see revenue was 5.5 billion last year and it has a three-year growth rate of 11 so 11 growth rate on 51 of their revenue now we go to data center and this is where things start to get really exciting for nvidia you can see 27 of last year's revenue but this one has a three-year compounding annual growth rate of 53 so really good to see a second category growing quickly for nvidia then you have visualization 11 of last year that's growing at about 13 and then finally automotive on the far right much smaller at 700 million and current growth rate you know 13 which is which is decent i think this category and i'm sure most of you would agree is ripe for change over the next you know two to three years as the style of vehicles that people start buying changes but for now i would consider this more of a growth play all right so those are the core businesses for nvidia let's take a look at the stock today and start building our forecasts for the rest of 2020.
stock before open today was at 573.86 the market is actually open on the downside here early today so i think it was around 550 before i pressed the record button you can see on 573 in the yellow boxes below i made a couple updates because yahoo i don't think was accurate in this case you have an eps of 690 that makes the pe ratio 83 on a 573 price that obviously if the market continues to go down that will fluctuate a little bit 52 week range at 166 all the way up to 589 and finally there is a dividend with nvidia a small one at 0.12 percent but definitely interesting to grab a small dividend from a company like this that is growing so fast up at the top you see last 12 months revenue 13.6 billion dollars 13.6 billion dollars this is a monster monster company cash on hand of almost 11 billion debt load of 7.7 billion which is still manageable they're working through a recent acquisition that actually just went uh live that that gives them some more capabilities on their data center business and so the debt level is a little higher than normal right now and i would expect over the next two to three years borrowing more acquisitions that that debt level is actually going to shrink fairly quickly okay so now let's build our price forecast for nvidia and to do this we're going to use a very simple formula with two variables if you've watched my other videos you already know where i'm going here but let's take a look at the parameters alright so you see at the top the prediction parameters our formula price equals pe times eps so in this case we want to get to price so simple simple algebra says we need to identify our pe and our eps to get there couple notes at the bottom just to clarify what we're doing nvidia's fiscal year runs february through january this prediction this price prediction would be for the february 2021 earnings call so roughly five months away and as always this is subjective data for pe eps economy all those things i'm sharing my opinion with you but you will have the opportunity i think very clearly to massage my pe and eps projections to come up with your own all right so the first projection that we have to run is actually the hardest and that is p e because p e is sort of an influential stat in the sense that it could go higher with momentum it could go higher with projection it's up to me to just put a pulse on where i think the market will be in february 2021 and factor in where has nvidia traded what pe levels have they traded at prior to that point so let's jump in all right lots of squiggly lines on this one but i'll skip right to the point uh this is a chart of the last several quarters of pe and other valuation measures for nvidia what i want to focus on is if you look at the top the green boxes we sort of have three quarters highlighted pre-covered quarters and then april of 2020.
this is where we're going to focus most of our attention in 2019 which would be the quarters off to the far right nvidia was actually having a slight down year in 2019 not a negative year but their performance dipped from a growth standpoint so i want to focus more in where the green boxes are where they've got a sort of over that hump so to speak and that's where we see these pes of 64 60 and 45 you compare that to what's going on now or recently and that's where the red circle is july 31st when that quarter closed we were at 79.
today we're about 80. we'll probably fall under that if the stock price stands at 550. so bottom line i'm incorporating the green box to make my pe projection and you see off to the far right there's some black text i personally believe market pes will come down ironically we're seeing some of it this morning i think pe's are too hot and some of those peas are coming down today we'll see if it lasts but i certainly believe they'll come down before february 2021 so my estimate on the bottom line there p e estimate equals 65 65 you know if there's a big dip that might even be a high number now that really might even be high i would say that the perfect storm with invidious growth is if you could get something under 50 which that even sounds crazy to some people but i think honestly with what this company is and where they play i would consider anything under 50 relatively fair compared to the competition all right so we're going with a pe of 65 now it's time to dig in and make an eps projection all right if you've watched the videos before you know i kind of look at this in two ways there's companies that tend to surprise on their earnings and they sort of sandbag there's others that kind of hit it right on the nose and of course there's even the third case which is you know they just bomb it because their business is sinking in nvidia's case if we look at the blue box their surprise percentage plus 13 plus 13 6 and 10 that is how much they've gone over the estimates for their eps so two boxes ahead of that is eps actual i didn't highlight it but you can see they came in at those numbers compared to the estimates at the very top so bottom line for me off to the far right i'm going to say 10 it's in blue there 10 is my expected surprise now that's only the surprise so now we got to go to the eps trends and see you know what are analysts thinking the first green box that's highlighted for all the analysts currently reporting into yahoo they're at 906 the arrow that's pointing up there shows you that 90 days ago that eps estimate was 8.09 now we're at 906 so we've went up about a dollar in just 90 days you factor in the surprise percentage above and long story short off to the right in the green text eps estimate 1006 i'm basically adding another dollar to the current estimate when i sort of factor in how nvidia has surprised in the past and the momentum that we're seeing on eps estimates right now all right so we have the two components of our formula we've got our pe we've got our eps let's see how they add up and then we'll compare that to what some of the professional analysts are saying all right top of the board projected price for february of 2021 we take our 10.06 eps times 65 p e that gives us the price of 653 that's 13.9 percent above the stock price i had on the board whatever that was 573 or 575 so that would even be higher if nvidia landed at 550 we would be even higher so that's my official price projection for 2021 given what i know here today in september if you go down we can manipulate the numbers a little bit if we had a lower eps so in this case 906 but a higher pe i put 83 which was you know about today's when i was first making this then you got a stock price that skyrockets all the way to 751.
i don't anticipate pes going uh higher than they are today but of course you do never know and then finally at the bottom if we take a higher eps and a lower pe we went 11 against 62 you're in that 682 range all right so i'm coming in at 653 for the february 2021 earnings call let's take a look at how the best performing analysts feel about nvidia stock using the tip ranks dashboard all right so on tip ranks the beauty of tip ranks is you can sort by date of when these analysis came in so on the far right you see all these are the past couple days and then i always sort by best performing so only four and five star analysts here right in the middle you've got the green box you can see pretty much a consensus buy and then the price target right so i'm at 653 most of these guys are in the 600 range 550 to 600.
i've only got one guy there somewhere in the middle of merrill lynch at 6 50. so most of the pros so to speak are shooting for around the 600 level right now all right so what's the bottom line on nvidia looking ahead in the short term just to february again i think nvidia if your only goal was to buy now and hold for five years uh plus then i think you win right i think it's an easy win just by the nature of their industry all the advancements they have coming up the way that their categories are shifting so that it's not so focused on gaming now you're getting into data centers which you know that's never going away and then you have like the automobile thing which doesn't do much now but it likely will in the future just a great company but even in the short term if we end today at 5 50 thereabouts if the stock market doesn't bounce back up then you know if you look at the pro analysts they're saying 600 dollars if you take my rationale and my math i'm at 653 frankly somewhere between the two also makes sense i think eps at 1006 for the fiscal year uh makes a lot of sense the hard part is the pe factor i could easily hit my eps target then have the pe uh you know land around 60 and then i'm right there with the pros so it just depends on how much people want to pay up i guess my two cents at the end of the day is get an nvidia somewhere for the next couple years two to five years like get in somewhere i'm a big proponent of the qqq and nvidia is a top 10 holding in that etf i think it's 2.2 percent so i always feel good when nvidia comes up because i am uh have a decent chunk of money in the qqq and finally since we had some volatility in the market today if you continue to see volatility or dips i personally think that if you can get nvidia under a p e of 50 the earnings for this company i think are pretty rock solid looking ahead there would have to be a major surprise to miss earnings per share however the pe is the x factor so if you see a p e under 50 for invinia you might have to think about it all right guys hope you enjoyed this forecast for nvidia stock heading into the end of fiscal year 2021 please give me a like and subscribe if you enjoy these kinds of videos i will see you on the next video
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