저자: TomNash · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어는 저평가되어 있어 기관 매수 진입 구간으로 적합하다는 주장이다. 기관 동향: 캐시 우드(ARK Invest)가 약 120만 주를 매수했고, 최근 4개월 사이 기관 보유 지분이 두 배로 늘었다는 주장이다. 1,100개 기관 주주 중 약 98%가 롱 포지션이라고 언급했다. 밸류에이션: 2022~2027년 5년 DCF를 사용했다. 매출은 회사 가이던스 기준 연 30% 성장으로 가정했고, SG&A는 약 7.5억 달러 수준에서 매년 소폭 증가시켰다. R&D 비용은 회사 흐름에 맞춰 반영했다. 보수적 가정 주장: 세율 21%, 누적 손실 이월 미반영, 5년간 자본지출 2억 달러(실제보다 과대 추정), 할인율 10%, 영구성장률 4%를 적용했다. 순부채는 약 22억 달러로 낮다고 설명했다. 결과: DCF 가치 약 440억 달러, EV/EBITDA 18배 기준 약 551억 달러, 평균 약 496억 달러로 제시했다. 현재 시총 약 332억 달러 대비 약 50% 상승 여력이 있다고 주장했다. 주가 기준으로는 16.5달러 부근을 기관의 진입 가격대로 언급했다. 리스크 및 전제: 장기 보유(2~4년)를 전제로 하며, 단기 손실을 견딜 수 있어야 한다고 강조했다. 영상은 DCF 계산 파일 제공 및 후원(Patreon) 커뮤니티 홍보로 마무리된다. 결론: 팔란티어를 현 시점에서 장기 매수 대상으로 보며, 저가 진입을 권한다.
다듬은 글
hey this is tom and in this video i'll explain to you why kathy wood and arkhanvest just purchased 1.2 million shares of volunteer there's not a lot of secrets here it's a great company but she has a great reason which i'll show you here using a full dcf yes i'm gonna do a full dcf on palantir you'll get to see it step by step because that dcf is basically critical to me showing you why kathy wood loaded the boat on planeteer just last week and she was not the only one a lot of institutional money is flowing into palantiy recently in fact companies like blackrock vanguard a lot of the big hitters are putting more and more money into palantir the institutional holdings of this company have doubled doubled in the past four months and the pace is only getting stronger and stronger now out of those eleven hundred institutional shareholders in poland here you know how many of them are short 22.
literally two percent 98 is long two percent the short now that shows you everything nobody in smart money is actually shorting this talk out of this crazy 22. i don't know what you know probably wrong key or maybe the cleaning lady went over the keyboard i don't know what happened but essentially i mean nobody's really shorting it now the real question is why all of this institutional money is flowing in why kathy wood which actually holds about five percent of the institutional float 32 million shares she holds about five percent of the entire 700 million float so the question is what the hell is going on here now in this video i'll show you why using even the most insanely absurd conservative assumptions palantir is still grossly grossly undervalued and why if you're an institutional money with some patients that's a good entry point for you i mean if you look at a company you say well this company is outperforming it's growing nicely the management is good it's getting revenues free cash flow and the stock price just ain't matching up because of different reasons like macroeconomics fear of interest rates or basically you know just general fudd like they had with tesla for a couple of years if that kind of disconnect exists between a share price and a company's performance usually institutionals look for an entry price but because they're patients and because they're not idiots they'll wait for a sweet spot and i think that's what they're seeing right now essentially it's 16 bucks 16 and a half bucks they're basically saying well it's going to be very hard for us to lose money on this talk if we get in at 16 and a half if we have patience because as i'm about to show you right now i mean even with the insanely conservative assumptions that i've used there's still 50 upside from 16 and a half all the way up even if you think the company is total garbage and you know if you have a good deal like that a lot of institutionals will jump on it which is exactly what's going on let me show you on the computer okay so this is my dcf 2022 2027 five-year dcf revenues are based on a 30 annual growth based on the company's guidance which i think is sandbag i think they're intentionally giving a low estimate of 30 annual growth but will use it just to keep it conservative this is the cost of goods structure for the next five years selling general administrative now if you look at the historical numbers you'll see that this actually is lower than the sgna in 2021 and 2020.
the reason is that 2120 was also loaded with sbc stock with computation that kind of artificially inflated sgna and if you look at years without sbc basically before the dpo which by definition created a lot of sbc and before alex carp got his new batch for the next 10 years you see that it's around 700 million so we use 750 and we give it a nice little bump every year also we have r d expenses right here which is in line with what the company is doing and now we can talk about the ebitda so basically the result is this ebitda right here and as you can see right here we use the 21 tax rate now this is insanely conservative over the past five years the company lost a lot of money they've accumulated a lot of losses which they can carry forward to years where they actually have profits because if we add it up we get about 11 and a half billion or 11 billion here a lot of it will be offset against the many many years of losses the company accumulated over the years so not all of this will be paid because as you should know a lot of four words can be done with losses losses can be carried forward to years in which you have gains from previous years in which you lost money and god knows pilate lost a lot of money so this is another ultra-conservative assumption as you can see right here we have capex assumptions of 200 million over the course of the next five years which is again a joke it's insane planeteer is not going to invest half not even one-fourth of this number it's not a company that has a lot of capex i mean it's a software business i mean they don't really invest in buildings and and machinery and stuff like that i mean the expense is basically r d and salaries so this is just a crazy assumptions just to you know go crazy here um a 10 discount rate and as you can see right here at four percent perpetual growth rate right here and at this point you should also pay attention to this number below the net debt is 2.2 billion a lot of cash very low debt as you remember this was intentional by the company and if you calculate all of this you get two numbers the dcf value is 44 billion and the ebitda multiple which should be 25 we used 18 here just to be conservative will give you a nice 55.1 the average will give you 49.6 which is 49.57 higher than the current price of 33 billion and 200 which the company is currently trading it so even if you apply the most conservative assumptions in history completely go ballistic on this company it still has 50 it's pretty much free money for these institutionals and they're literally picking it up from the ground and you'd be shocked how simple the formula for this is basically great company panic selling equals money simple as that now all of these institutionals will be quietly buying as the price is dipping all the real investors gonna be shaking their balls gonna be shaking their arms gonna be shaking they'll be paper handing out of the stock while these guys quietly move in this is exactly what's going on here but then again not everybody is built for a two three four year holding period even though they say they are i mean this is what the stock requires if you don't have the stomach for a couple of years of losses because virtually stay away from this now if this was helpful let me know below also try to take my calculation completely go crazy with it if you can make me look like an idiot post it in comments i'm not going to delete any comments if you can basically confirm what i said here go crazy if you want to make a little bit more of a you know aggressive assumption let's see where it gets you in any case this dcf calculation will be available to download in full for you to play around with on our patreon page if you want to join it's five dollars per month and if anything you'll get the success spreadsheet but you'll also be a part of a community you'll be supporting the channel our zoom calls the updates everything the discord the link is in the description and in the pen comment i'll see you there hopefully in a minute later
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