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eon mads B a quick note on the update to the inflation reduction act how they're postponing some of the requirements to March of next year a lot of people online are just saying now all EVS are going to qualify for this incentive for the first quarter of 2023 and that is not true the delay here is really only for the material sourcing and the component requirements everything else is still going to apply at the beginning of the new year which means the income limits 300 000 cap for married filing jointly 150 000 for everybody else 225k for head of household the price caps for the cost of these vehicles will apply fifty five thousand dollars for cars and eighty thousand dollars for Vans trucks and SUVs and the requirement to actually manufacture these vehicles in North America will also still apply right away this delay could benefit Tesla this way way so the model 3 rear wheel drive which does qualify because it's less than 55 000 will get the full 7 500 credit however once these rules kick in those sourcing requirements if the battery pack doesn't meet them then this may only qualify for half or three thousand seven hundred and fifty the model 3 Performance is of course disqualified because of the price cap and I am hoping that sometime next year Tesla brings back a model 3 long range under that 55 000 cap that part is Just My Hope in preparation for these changes Tesla is wisely now directing new buyers when you click this buy now button it actually takes you to the current inventory and now they have this custom order option if you want to configure one and for the model y treating it like an SUV it is under that eighty thousand dollar cap so both variants should qualify for the full credit right away on January 1st but again this will only apply to income earners under the threshold Model S and model X both of course disqualified because they're over eighty thousand dollars and don't forget for the rest of December you can still get a three thousand seven hundred fifty dollar credit and ten thousand free miles of supercharging if you take delivery this month and to encourage that Tesla also has this option on the configurator that will also take you to inventory Vehicles where you can take delivery sooner Drive Tesla Canada shared a picture from Whole Mars showing us that at the Peterson Museum they have now removed Steel Dynamics as being the steel supplier for the Cyber truck here's the proof at one point it said cyber truck body will utilize steel produced by Steel Dynamics and here's the update Steel Dynamics is now nowhere to be found so unless somebody is doing some photoshop work here this is worth passing along what it means exactly I'm not sure but on my recent live stream on patreon we talked about this briefly so wanted to give that update we got the weekly insurance registration data for Tesla out of Shanghai and look at byd 50.4 000 for the week doing a 5x on Tesla so all of our Tesla fandom aside we have to give a hat tip to byd and what they're doing in this market so yeah it would be great for Tesla to have a more affordable vehicle in this market right now but they don't and they're not going to anytime soon so here's the chart from Matthias plotting the most recent data and for what it's worth Troy was expecting around 13 000 for the week which would have been in line with what we saw the week prior again this is domestic sales in China only and we know everything that's going on right now so we've been expecting this slowdown this should come as no surprise Roland on Twitter has also been doing some really good work so I wanted to highlight him here as he presented this data in a different way the green blue portion of the bars model y orange model 3 and this gray part is the insurance registration data so far for this quarter so this is comparing quarters for Tesla again just domestic deliveries in Shan High currently for quarter four we sit at a hundred and eight thousand with about two weeks left so if we get another ten thousand per week that's another twenty thousand that would take us to a hundred and twenty eight thousand a new record quarter for domestic deliveries in the midst of a recession and very tough economic conditions in China that's a win in my book but with that said I need everybody out there to be prepared for a Slowdown especially into q1 in Shanghai as some of these incentives go away and the cyclical nature of car buying into quarter one also slows down and before we move on I would just add there's still a pretty big question mark about what the export number will be for Giga Shanghai for December so that's when we have to wait for and yes it might be effectively zero but as I said there's at least a non-zero chance that it's not zero Brian Zach 419 on Reddit shared this image that tells us there's this alert saying live camera in use if you're using the mobile app to view the live Sentry mode while in dog mode and yes according to the comments if you stop viewing the live stream from your mobile app then this notification will go away I'm also being told the live Sentry mode for dog mode will still work even if there are other humans in the car this comment was great had to share it rousby said maybe my dog will behave when he sees that wishful thinking earlier this year I tweeted about the three non-tesla people I've learned the most from this year one of them was Andrew huberman if you care at all about wellness and Longevity I would highly encourage you to check him out he also happens to join the crew of Lex Friedman The Institute of human anatomy and Stephen Mark Ryan in the gang that takes and recommends athletic greens ag-1 is the sponsor of this video but I've been taking athletic greens now for over a year it's simple I wanted something quick and easy to provide a baseline of key nutrients every day a no matter how off track my diet gets in busy seasons of life I chose ag1 in part because it's certified by NSF meaning I can actually trust what's on the label is actually what I'm putting into my body do not take this for granted in 2022.
ag-1 has 75 different probiotics minerals and vitamins in every serving I also like to drop in some of their vitamin d3k too if you live in a snowy cloudy climate like myself vitamin D is crucial and what's cool is with every order ag1 donates to organizations providing nutritious meals to children in need ag1 is offering electrified viewers a one-year supply of vitamin D3 K2 and 5 travel packs for free this morning on Twitter I said using a 7.50 earnings per share figure for Tesla for 2023 for context Gary black is at 7.20 the Tesla forward p e ratio has dipped below 20.
sitting around 19 now the lowest it's been since early 2020 also for context it's been trading over 100 times for most of 2020 and 2021. if you liked it then you should really like it now but as always this is never Financial advice I showed you that to make a point here from this Bloomberg article they're saying comparing Tesla which they have at a 36 times forward earnings this is from a few days ago compared to the mid to high single digit multiples for GM Ford Honda and Toyota being in the High Teens when it comes to a multiple so now Tesla is even closer to approaching these other automakers but if you use that as your justification for Tesla being overvalued you're so far lost from the story of what's really going on if you really think that Tesla deserves the same evaluation multiple as these other automakers then honestly I'm not sure what to tell you I'd say go back to electrified video one and watch all of them and hopefully you'll have a different perspective so with Toyota's forward multiple being in the high teens and these other companies being mid to high single digits Tesla is now very close to those valuations sitting around 19 times forward earnings and while we're here it's important to mention for the last few months people have been calling for Tesla stock to the 140s and there's been a reason for it and I even said in the past I won't be surprised if it happens here we are it literally hit that level today so here it is here's that level of support people were talking about weeks ago 140 why was that you can see all of this consolidation of trading activity that lasted for about 91 days back in 2020.
from this weekly perspective the next real level of support isn't until around the 97 or a hundred dollar Mark I know many people dislike technical analysis all it really is is showing us the price action at different price points obviously there's a lot of psychological Behavior going on with the markets and people behave differently at different price levels at different times so all ta is is looking at how people behaved with a certain stock in the past and I get a little charged up with this stuff because it's really helped me be a better long-term investor and I say that because of this if you look at Tesla stock price action over the last what we'll call it a year I know for a fact after this dip people started fomoing back into Tesla saying oh it can't go any lower than this they start feeling good feeling good and then we go even lower what happens oh wood definitely can't go lower than this I'm gonna go all in and these people end up running out of powder because it happened again and here we are and I know some of you out there are out of capital to invest and that's fine I know times are very tough but when you're in a bear Market when we're in a downtrend with these regular lower lows and lower highs these levels are a big deal and this is even more important for most of 2021 in some of 2022 I was actually working on opening a trading hedge fund with a subscriber of mine ultimately it didn't work out some family things came up with my partner however for six to nine months I was all in studying taking courses I used to manage over 65 million dollars for other people at Edward Jones point being I've been in the space I've lived it I've talked to people and I understand that whether you like it or not Wall Street uses technical analysis heavily and I need you to know whether you like this or not most of the trades that are executed on a daily basis are actually done by algorithms not real people these algorithms are set to operate and execute at what different levels add to that all of the margin that's now more present in the market especially with Tesla that's easy to get for any retail Trader they all also have what stop losses at different levels so even if you're not a Trader at all and you're just a long-term investor I just hope this little rant can turn even one person from hating technical analysis to having an open mind to at least giving it a chance to understanding how to use it as a long-term investor and I think what really turns people off is then they start to think these levels are like gospel and that every single time it's hit we're going to see a balance or it breaks through whatever nothing ever in trading Works 100 of the time it's just to give us guidelines and things to think about I got a question on Twitter how do you determine where these levels are I would just say find a time frame that suits your investment strategy I'm a long-term investor so I'll choose weekly then looking at the chart where do you see levels where has the stock traded in the same range for an extended period of time there's plenty of other tools and indicators I can teach you more and I will in the future again on a different platform stay tuned but just looking at the candles I see a lot of trading in this range right here right here right here and where we're currently at in this 140 range again where we spent three months and like I said the next level of support which is around ninety seven dollars we traded there for about a month which yes in theory means it's not as strong of a level as this one because we were here for three months and for beginners I think it's best to think about these levels as ranges and not set prices like if you think Tesla's just gonna trade right at 140 for the next three months that's not the best way to think about it because as you see it just hovers around that level much more to say on that in the future but for now for long-term investors not Financial advice but this does feel like a gift given the current valuations just a quick note on the rumors about potential Model S production at Giga Berlin I think this is more likely than most people I'm not saying I think it's going to happen but considering it's already a high margin vehicle for Tesla it would be even higher margins if they produced It Low locally in Berlin for that market where it should sell very well I'm curious what do you guys think just a quick note on Lucid raising this 1.5 billion dollars this is not new they mentioned this after their third quarter earnings back in November this is just confirmation of that deal closing and also part of why it's going to be much harder for Lucid to go bankrupt or go out of business because they're backed by the Saudi public wealth fund which has very Deep Pockets the same thing goes for live golf if you know what I'm talking about here we have a very interesting survey done by KPMG surveying Auto industry Executives and their sentiment as we head into 2023 for electric vehicles first they surveyed 915 Executives in October of this year and 252 of them were based in the United States of the 900 Auto execs that were surveyed 76 percent are concerned that inflation and high interest rates will adversely affect their business next year in the the U.S that figure was higher at 84 percent when it comes to their expectations for Ev sales of the overall auto market previously they were sitting at 20 to 70 percent by 2030.
now in this survey those figures are down to 10 to 40 percent by 2030. for the United States the median expectation for Ev sales was 35 of the new vehicle Market by 2030 and that was down from 65 percent just one year earlier kpmg's head of Global Automotive said there's still a sense of optimism long term and yet most importantly there's a sense of realism in the near term I actually loved this line he said it's not rainbows and butterflies and Euphoria anymore it's game on what I also found interesting is these executives are now thinking Apple will be one of the leaders in EVS on the right we have the results from last year and on the left from this year so Tesla takes the top spot with the most votes for both years however you can see app Apple went from near the bottom last year too now being in the fourth spot the main reasons for these expectations for Apple their brand and they're working with Foxconn for me you're gonna have to give me a little bit more than that to do well building EVs and competing with the best of the best in a separate study that involves semiconductors the chips Automotive is seen as the most important sector for driving Revenue over the next year that's a first in the 18 years of this survey why is that well of course EVS are more Tech forward and require more of these Advanced chips and a silver lining 83 percent of automotive executives who took the poll said they were confident in higher profits over the next five years which was actually up from 53 percent in the survey last year my biggest takeaway from all of this if all of these executives are less bullish on EV adoption in the near term what does that mean they're not willing to take as much risk when it comes to developing new electric vehicles or are buying parts for these EVS maybe they're looking to cut some Corners to try to inflate their profits in the short term again as they try to transition over to EVS if you read between the lines it seems like a lot of these automakers may actually swing the pendulum back to prioritizing some of their ice Vehicles where they're actually making money because again companies like Ford with the Machi and the F-150 Lightning are actually losing money as far as we know and if these execs are less bullish on how many EVS they can sell well guess what they're not going to make as many EVS which yes could be another headwind for the competition to keep their EV volume suppressed and give Tesla more time to Sprint further and further ahead in the past I've said I'm not a big fan of surveys to distinguish I'm not a big fan of surveys of consumers by brands that may have ulterior motives but a reputable firm like KPMG interviewing Executives on their sentiment about their business is a little bit different at least in my eyes when you first see headlines like this one it's pretty easy to get excited but this really is just for testing and to start validating some of these cells for different automakers quantumscape has begun shipping some of these prototypes to automakers that are still unnamed but we know VW does invest in quantumscape and these are nearly full-size prototypes but they also said commercial production is still at least a few years away this is good news if you've been watching the channel for a few months originally the post office was going to replace their mail trucks with mostly gas ice Vehicles which was insane but they received a lot of pushback so the latest is they plan to buy 66 000 EVS for its Fleet by 2028 which would be about a quarter of the usps's current Fleet size they'll buy 60 000 vehicles from Oshkosh and then 45 000 of those will be electric the other 21 000 commercial EVS will come from other suppliers and a quick favor to ask a good friend of of mine put together a 12 question survey all about EV so if you would take literally 30 seconds to go fill it out it'll be linked in the description below we would both greatly appreciate it don't forget check out ag1 linked below get your freebies and also check out Andrew huberman if you're not familiar hope you all ] thank you
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