저자: DylanLoomis · 외국인
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배터리팩 가격이 2022년 처음 전년 대비 약 7% 상승. 원자재(코발트·니켈·리튬) 가격 급등이 원인이며 LFP 확산이 상승폭을 제한. 테슬라 FSD 경쟁력은 데이터보다 데이터 엔진(차량·온보드 컴퓨터·소프트웨어의 반복 개선 능력)에 있다는 주장. 장단기 금리차 역전 후 경기침체 및 주가 바닥은 역사적으로 침체 선언 시점 전후에 형성된다며 나스닥 구조적 약세와 현금 비중 확대를 언급.
다듬은 글
s Ferdinand and Zach C I just wanted to put this here I've been watching Rob now dating back to 2017 long before his YouTube Fame when it was just a Tesla podcast many of you know Rob's work really is second to none nobody is perfect so let's all just do what we can to show him some Grace and encouragement and I do think the rumor situation got way blown out of proportion but either way wanted to take the opportunity to say how much I appreciate Rob for all of his work over the years thanks to Elon and all of the revelations over the past few weeks I'm on high alert when it comes to mainstream media but every now and then they do do useful things like this article many of us know the trend over the last decade the cost of the average battery pack has declined from around one thousand dollars per kilowatt hour in 2010 to 141 dollars per kilowatt hour in 2021 but as you can see for the first time in 2022 the average battery pack cost has gone up by about seven percent compared to 2021.
we've been talking about reasons for this all year on the channel but the main one Rising material costs including for Cobalt nickel and lithium this of course is driven by a surge in demand for these materials and a lag in how fast new supply for these materials can be brought online and as Colin mccarracher astutely points out these prices would be even higher had it not been for lfp becoming more and more mainstream because these lfp lithium iron phosphate batteries do not use what Cobalt or nickel here's how they arrived at this data 200 survey data points from buyers and sellers of lithium batteries going into EVS commercial vehicles buses and stationary storage applications but it is a volume weighted average so that helps to smooth out some of the discrepancies between geography and application the lowest prices recorded were electric buses and commercial vehicles in China around 131 dollars per kilowatt hour while the average pack prices for fully electric passenger vehicles was 138 dollars per kilowatt hour no surprise that regionally packed prices were the cheapest in China and comparatively in the US and Europe they were 24 and 33 percent higher respectively generally I prefer to focus on the data rather than making predictions but Bloomberg nef is expecting prices to begin Falling Again in 2024 and of course everybody still talks about the 100 per kilowatt hour at the Pack level being where EVS will be on price parity with the combustion engine counterparts however I would add a major caveat that this is just a general rough loose rule of thumb due to inflation and materials for other parts of the vehicle also making it more expensive right now I also wanted to show you that same chart from Evelina with some new data going back to 2010 looking at the percent declines in the pack costs per year you can see it range between 10 and 35 percent really every year until 2021 that year pack prices were down six percent and again this year for the first time they are up seven percent Jordan from the limiting factor had a great point over the next two years or so it'll be the manufacturers that can drive down the costs around the battery pack because again for the next two years pack costs may be going up if not staying steady to be clear in the long run we should expect the average battery pack cost to continually decline one some of this new material is actually brought online but depending on what material we're talking about it could take anywhere from two to seven years to actually spin up that new production doing some quick fun math if we take the average battery pack cost in 2022 of 151 dollars per kilowatt hour and assume that Tesla is 30 more efficient than the rest of the industry Tesla specifically for the semi may be around 105 dollars per kilowatt hour times a rough battery pack size of anywhere from 850 to 950 we'll split the difference at 900 that would be ninety five thousand one hundred and thirty dollars just for the battery pack in a Tesla semi I want to quickly summarize this tweet from Andre carpathy if you ask most people on the Tesla Community what's the most important factor to Tesla solving FSD a lot of people would say the data but it's actually a little more nuanced than that the competitive advantage in AI goes not so much to those with data but those with a data engine aka the ability to drive and generate this data actually owning and controlling that aspect of it not just having a pool of data so in Tesla's case the actual data engine would be the vehicles the FSD computer on board and of course the software that makes it all go with that engine Tesla can quickly iterate what data it's actually acquiring it can then retrain that new data it can evaluate it deploy it again and it can track the performance of all of that in real time so Andre saying whoever can spin this data engine the fastest will have the competitive advantage in AI this is critically important so try to keep this in your mind especially going into the future as you compare Tesla to how other companies are approaching solving FSD and you'll see why Tesla really is in A League of Their Own at least in my opinion if you've been wanting to see a Model S plaid give a Ferrari F12 Enzo a two second Head Start today's your lucky day thank you and just in case you now have the itch to own this Beast I have something for you all right guys this one is awesome omaze is bringing you the chance to win an unplugged performance Model S plaid Apex Edition and in the process you can support the Peterson Museum shout out to omaze the sponsor of today's video omaze gives people a chance to win once in a lifetime prizes all while helping non-profits make the world a better place in 2021 omaze Gave Over 27 million dollars to 131 non-profits and over 6 000 people were omaze winners just said to omaze.com electrified Tesla linked below to enter for your chance to win we know the model S plaid gets 396 miles of range and is the fastest accelerating production car ever made but listen to this this custom model S plaid comes with a carbon fiber body kit carbon ceramic brakes full self-driving and the new Von whole thousand bamboo leather interior and more taxes and shipping will be included for United States winners the Peterson Auto Museum yes the one that just held the Tesla exhibit is a non-profit that presents the history of the automobile and your donation helps them extend youth education programs on site and online and to develop new exhibitions so for a chance to win an unplugged performance Model S plaid Apex Edition and support a great cause in the process head to omaze.com electrified Tesla linked below best of luck more news on the refresh of the model 3 project Island coming 2023 I did hear from my source last night all I can really say is it's confirmed that there are going to be some changes coming next year I was able to verify that right now the Shanghai Engineers are indeed in Fremont helping the team Implement all of these new changes Tesla filed and signed an application to build temporary tents that will house model 3 body fitting and light repair operations until May 1st 2023 in a separate filing Tesla also plans to make all of these changes I'm not going to read it to you but pause the screen if you'd like these break and roll systems are oftentimes used to simulate the real world environment last year in that interview with Sandy Monroe Elon did say Tesla will likely switch the model 3 sedan to a single piece casting design in the future but first Berlin and Texas gigafactories need to have production efforts well underway to sustain demand fulfillment Elon also said we just need an opportunity to redo the factory without blowing the cash flow of the company so maybe that time is right now which reading between the lines would also signal positivity about the current state of both Berlin and Austin we just got Tesla's insurance registration data from China for the first week of December it came in at 11 670.
ahead of time Troy said that 12 000 would be as expected so pretty much right in line with Troy's expectations just so you know these Insurance registrations can differ a little bit from deliveries because there is a bit of a lag but the registrations themselves are counted by third-party agencies based on the registration of mandatory Auto liability insurance just to give you a rough idea this is data from one month October of this year comparing different automakers and their actual deliveries for that time frame compared to the insurance registrations over the same time frame as you can see for some automakers that discrepancy can be north of a few thousand units however for most automakers it's usually within a few hundred and gives us a good leading indicator of what's going on before we get the official delivery numbers at the end of the month we were supposed to have an update by December 7th for the new proposed lithium refinery in Nueces County for Tesla Tesla said they have new technologies in production which will significantly reduce water consumption during the meeting Tesla representative said the company will not produce lithium batteries in a conventional way like everybody else this will limit production of waste and environmental pollution as well as reducing water consumption just to quickly drop some information on your radar for the future we have Judd on Twitter saying the Washington Post LA Times Politico axios PBS Wall Street Journal the Atlantic and New York Times and others often run ads from fossil fuel companies and they run these native ads which sometimes can be indistinguishable from the actual content of these websites which yes can be very misleading to the reader I added New York Times to judge list because you can see New York Times just last week ran this ad from Saudi aramco just stick with me the website linked to this ad ran by the New York Times actually talked up some of the benefits of blue hydrogen doing a little digging we find this study from August of 2021 scrolling down to check out the abstract perhaps surprisingly the greenhouse gas footprint of a blue hydrogen is more than 20 percent greater than burning natural gas or coal for heat and some 60 percent greater then burning diesel oil for heat all of this to say right now there are at least 20 pending lawsuits filed by cities and states across the United States alleging major players in the fossil fuel industry misled the public on climate change to devastating effect again keep it in mind more to come in the future I want to take a moment to use this data and go back into history and see can we actually use it to get an expectation for what we may see in the next two years especially when it comes to Tesla stock and when the bottom may actually come in full disclosure not Financial advice I'm not trying to predict anything in the future again just using historical data to see what we can learn the yield curve is just a chart that plots different interest rates for different maturities of the United States treasuries almost every recession dating back the last 50 years has been preceded by the inversion of the yield curve that's just what you're looking at when the shorter term rates are actually higher than the longer term maturity important to note right now the FED is actually watching primarily the three month and the 10-year as the main inverted metric to watch but again historically most people have also watched the two-year and the 10-year right now two-year yield sits at 4.4 percent while the 10-year yield is down at 3.6 and clearly the three-month yield is also inverted when compared to the 10-year here's another way to look at this data it's just a 10-year minus the two-year right now it's at negative 0.81 as you can see this is going to be the most inverted that this has been dating all the way back to 1981.
and yes the current reading of negative 0.81 is nearly double what the reading was at the severity leading up to the.com Bubble so how can we use this on this chart these gray vertical bars are actually periods of recession so what I want to highlight is the yield curve actually uninverts meaning goes back above this black horizontal line before the action actual recession is declared it uninverted first before this recession it uninverted before this one before this one before this one during this one and during this one so again if history is any indication the current yield Curve will uninvert either before or during the actual recession and why that actually matters here's a similar chart from Benjamin Cowan on YouTube again the gray vertical bars are the recessionary periods and this blue line is going to be the S P 500 most recently in the recession in 2020 the s p bottomed During the recessionary period during the great financial crisis in 2008 the s p bottomed During the recessionary period here's an outlier during the.com crash the s p actually bottomed after the recession was declared over in the early 1990s the s p bottomed during the recession and two times in the 80s again the s p bottomed during the recessions zooming in back on this chart the point is we are currently technically not yet in a recession because the unemployment rate is still at historic lows so when the nber actually decides to declare an official recession if that happens it's going to be again when employment goes up and I'm not predicting I'm not forecasting I'm just saying if we use history as our guide then the s p will bottom sometime in the future maybe in 2023 when that official recession is declared that maybe again if history is our guide after the yield curve uninverts here we have the NASDAQ chart dating back to the summer of last year what do you see basically this is a structural bear market right now we have continuous lower highs throughout the year as denoted by these thumbs down and the sad faces show us continuous lower lows lower lows lower lows lower lows it just seems like with each relief rally there are people that are yellowing in because they think now it's the time where we're going to take off personally I would just say to maybe temper your expectations because of everything we just talked about as always never Financial advice just what I'm doing I am buying Tesla on the dips here and there but I'm also trying to accumulate a cash balance expecting there to be more macro headwinds ahead into next year whether it's quarter one or quarter three who really knows history does not have to repeat itself but if it is any guide the s p will actually end up bottoming most likely during the time when the recession is actually declared again that most likely won't start until unemployment goes up so definitely watch that and there's also a chance like we saw around 2003 with a.com crash whether it's the S P 500 or the NASDAQ that it actually bottoms after the end of the recession again right now we are officially technically not yet in that recession so there could be more pain and downside ahead so again not Financial advice not making a prediction just using the historical data and extrapolating that into the future to try to get some ideas of what could be a likely outcome and I am cautiously buying the dips but I'm also trying to build up a cash balance so if history repeats itself then sometime most likely into next year when the recession is declared and the Market's actually bottom Tesla will be potentially even cheaper and I'll have that ammo ready and available and If not I've still been buying cautiously again all along the way and we won't cover this today but the point is many analysts are expecting companies to miss their earnings guidance as we head into 2023 which would of course be another headwind and a drag on stocks and the market some quick good news in case you're planning to build a house lumber prices are at their lowest level since June 2020 down 78 from the peak back in May of last year this should come as no surprise because building permits which can be considered a leading indicator for the economy are also now at near two year lows new home construction really is spear heading the way to slow down the over overall economy Omar said VW CEO Oliver Bloom said they're going to scrap the Artemis autonomous driving project get in line behind all other OEM seemingly waving the white flag on autonomy as we've been talking about and under this new road map Audi is unlikely to launch fully autonomous cars before 2030.
to which Elon says bold it's also perfect timing for this as Sawyer said Apple has now scaled back its self-driving plans for its future EV and postponed the launch to 2026. Apple is now planning a less ambitious design that will include a steering wheel and pedals and only support full autonomous capabilities on highways I mean really who would have thought that solving FSD a problem that's never been solved in the history of humanity would be a little more challenging than people expected Ford said 1920 dealers out of about 3 000 across the country have agreed to the new EV certification program of that number 1659 chose the certified Elite track where they have to invest up to 1.2 million and another 261 chose regular certified status which requires up to a 500 000 investment but they can only sell up to 25 EVS per year the companies that did not opt in at all will not be allowed to sell EVS past 2023 but they'll have another chance in 2025 and Farley said Ford needs to evolve to better compete with EV startups like Tesla and the ones that sell directly to customers he also said the number one EV player in the US bet against the dealers we wanted to make the opposite Choice don't forget check out omaze linked below for your chance to win that custom model S plaid
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