저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
AMD와 엔비디아를 매출 성장, 마진, 밸류에이션 기준으로 비교. 엔비디아는 데이터센터 점유율 80~90%와 높은 마진으로 AMD보다 우위이며, 포워드 PER도 엔비디아 20배 vs AMD 31.6배로 엔비디아가 저평가. 자체 DCF로 엔비디아 적정가 263달러(현재 176달러), AMD 적정가 186달러(현재 210달러)로 제시하고 본인이 엔비디아를 보유 중이라고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
AMD or Nvidia? This has been a debate among investors who say that Nvidia's too big already. AMD has more opportunity ahead. AMD should be the better stock to buy because there's more upside. Well, I'll put these two together in this video, compare them across a number of important metrics, and let you know what I think about this ongoing debate.
Which is the better AI stock to buy, Nvidia or AMD? , I'm going to start this comparison looking at revenue and revenue growth expectations and historical, starting with AMD. Which in 2023, AMD's revenue declined by 3.9%. Remember, AMD sold a lot of product during the pandemic and during the economic reopening, people didn't need as many electronic devices like laptop computers and personal computers and the gaming consoles that AMD had its products inside.
And so, there was a gap in demand and AMD experienced a headwinds. 2024 was a better year. AMD's data center revenue started to contribute more to its overall business and revenue increased by 13.7%. 2025 was its data center GPU out into the market. Demand for it was really strong and revenue jumped by 34.3% up to 34.6 billion.
Now, the analysts on Wall Street that are following AMD, they expect the company to generate another similar year of growth here in 2026. And breaking down that growth, it's going to be more of the same. It's going to be a lot of growth in its data center segment, which is estimated to grow around 60% in 2026, while the rest of its business weighs the company down.
Remember, AMD still sells a lot of components into the personal computing industry, which is going to experience headwinds in 2026. Partly to blame is the data center market because the data center market has demanded the HBM memory so strongly that prices for memory are soaring and that's creating shortages for computers and prices for computers are increasing, supply of computers are decreasing, and demand for computers is also decreasing at those higher prices.
And remember, AMD still gets a large percentage of its overall revenue and profit from the computing industry. So, that will weigh the company down, not just this year, but in future years as well. 2027, AMD is forecast to generate 44% revenue growth before slowing down to 29% revenue growth in the year that ends December of 2028, totaling 86.282 billion dollars in that year, still nowhere near where Nvidia's revenue is even today.
So, even after 3 years of growth, AMD's revenue will not even approach Nvidia's overall revenue. Speaking of Nvidia's overall revenue, it's been an incredible run for Nvidia, which has seen its revenue absolutely explode since the advent and launch of ChatGPT. In its fiscal year, which ended January of 2024, Nvidia's revenue jumped by 126% to 61 billion and jumped another 114% to 130 billion in the year that ended January of 2025.
Its most recently completed year, which was completed in January of 2026, it generated 65% revenue growth. And the upcoming year, the analysts on Wall Street are forecasting another 71% growth for Nvidia, which would have its revenues reach 369 billion dollars. That means from 2024 to 2027, Nvidia's revenue will have increased by more than 6x from 61 billion to 369 billion dollars.
This is unprecedented growth and especially impressive to me is that they've been able to do this by selling hardware products, mostly physical products, right, that they need to manufacture and transport and deliver, etc. To be able to do that in this kind of business is truly unprecedented. And then on top of that, we're going to talk about margins in a little bit.
Nvidia's been achieving this kind of revenue growth at absolutely top-tier margins. Their gross profit margins are 75% in the trailing 12-month period or reaching 75% and have been at least 70% for the majority of this time where their revenues have absolutely exploded. So, they're generating this kind of sales growth with absolutely top-tier profit margins and that's been truly impressive.
Then, starting in 2028, the analysts on Wall Street are forecasting a significant slowdown in its revenue growth down to 30%, but it still would be over 100 billion dollars in growth from 369 to 480 billion dollars. And then, in the fiscal year that will end January of 2029, another 17% growth is expected up to 561 billion dollars.
Most of this growth will come from the data center market. Nvidia has an estimated 80 to 90% share and it keeps that share even though competition is increasing. Nvidia is growing faster than the competition is increasing because it still has the best-in-class product. Now, this data center market will continue expanding and then those investments that were made in 2022 and 2023 and 2024, those will start to need updates around 2028 and 2029.
So, right now Nvidia and AMD are generating growth based on new build-outs and then starting 2028 and 2029, they'll start generating growth based on the replacement cycle. So, Nvidia clearly beats AMD in terms of revenue growth, both historically and looking forward. But what about margins? Well, if we look at the cash flow to sales ratio, Nvidia beats AMD and has been beating AMD for over a decade.
In the most recently completed three fiscal years, Nvidia's operating cash flow to sales have held above 46% ending at 47.6. AMD's operating cash flow to sales is improving, but is far lower, less than half that of Nvidia at 22.3%, but that's up from just 7.4% in 2023. If AMD's growth rate continues as is estimated by the analysts, I wouldn't be surprised if AMD's cash flow to sales ratio surpasses 30% and even approaches 40% if they do indeed achieve those revenue growth forecasts that are indicated by the analyst.
So, now let's look at valuation. What I've seen so far, Nvidia was better in terms of revenue growth and margins and historical and looking forward. And then just looking at product cycles and comparing them competitively speaking, Nvidia's product for the data center market at least is at least one step ahead of AMD.
You could argue it's two steps ahead. Some, you know, AMD bulls will concede that Nvidia is ahead of AMD in terms of product and software fit for artificial intelligence, but you could argue whether it's half a step ahead or two steps ahead. And I've heard arguments for, you know, in that range. But we can all agree that Nvidia is ahead of AMD in terms of market and competitive advantage.
You can see that reflected in the evidence in the marketplace where Nvidia boasts an estimated 80 to 90% market share. So, all of that would indicate to me that Nvidia is the better business. And so, if I can get Nvidia at the same price as AMD, I would choose Nvidia. But actually, I can get Nvidia stock at a discount compared to AMD, which I don't think makes sense.
AMD is trading at a 50% premium to Nvidia when measuring using the forward price to earnings ratio. AMD is at 31.6, Nvidia is at just 20. So, I think just looking at this metric valuation and comparing the business, Nvidia is in the lead here. But I like to look at valuation more comprehensively. So, I also calculated the fair value of these businesses using my proprietary discounted cash flow model.
And in this model, I valued Nvidia's business to be worth $263. The current market price is 176. So, Nvidia stock looks considerably undervalued according to this metric as well, in addition to the forward price to earnings ratio. And then when I look at AMD, it's trading at a market price of $210 and I calculated an intrinsic value of $186.
Applying a margin of safety, I can say AMD stock looks fairly valued using my proprietary discounted cash flow model, while Nvidia looks undervalued. So, given what I know about these companies, of course, I've spent, you know, hundreds of hours analyzing these companies over the previous decade or so, I know a lot more than what I can present in this short video.
As I mentioned, I would feel like I'm getting a good deal if I if I can buy Nvidia stock at the same price at AMD stock, but I can buy Nvidia stock today at a huge discount compared to AMD. So, for me, this is an easy decision. If I had to pick between these two, Nvidia would be my choice and in fact it is my choice.
I own Nvidia stock while I don't own AMD stock and if I was interested in buying more of one of these two companies, I would choose Nvidia stock again over AMD at these market prices. .
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