저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리의 13F 공시를 분석. 그가 알리바바·JD·핀둬 등 중국 기술주 주식을 전량 매도하고 해당 종목 풋옵션을 보유한 것으로 나타남. 엔비디아도 풋옵션이 보고됨. 다만 공시 시점(3월 31일)이 오래되어 현재 포지션은 이미 청산되었을 가능성이 높다고 판단. 장기 투자 관점에서 알리바바 매수 가능성도 언급.
다듬은 글
man, oh man, I have not been this conflicted in a while. Okay, we got one of Michael Bur's 13F filings today. On one hand, he sold Alibaba, one of our favorite stocks. We're going to talk about it. But we have the king of the shorts back. Maybe we haven't seen this in a little while where he's like all in on the downside.
So, we're going to look at the actual 13-day filing here in a second. Okay. So, yeah. Yeah. This is Whale Wisdom. Um it's a it's a good website for looking at some of these like super investor portfolios. Um his company is called Scion Asset Management in case you didn't know that. Scion warning of the end of the world that was not listened to.
Uh that that's really his identity and that's who you know he certainly trades like sometimes. Um they give you like a quick highlight here but I usually kind of skip right past this page and go to see all holdings. So you can actually see like you know you know all the individual names here. Um so if you notice we'll go right down to the red section first.
Basically he just sold everything. Yeah, he was really kind of loading up on China, you know, tech China tech companies for a while. Alibaba stock, one of our favorites, just reported earnings this week. We're gonna do a separate video tomorrow about that. Um, but he closed out the entire position. He had trimmed it back 25% the filing before this.
Um, JD, one of their major competitors, also gone. Pendu, another one, also gone. Um, but if you look at this, not only did he sell those, he loaded up on put contracts for these Chinese companies. Baba, Pindoo, JD, um, and B actually down here. And then Nvidia, that's like the big one, right? He hasn't had really Nvidia traded, I think, in a while that I can remember.
Um, no, it hasn't. It's been a while. And we're going to show um the timeline for these because this is a unique 13F in that I actually think these positions are not accurate anymore um because of the timing of what's happened. He's very quick to take profit. He's a smart dude. Um I would be surprised if he hasn't already taken all of the profit.
And these are completely wrong if I'm being honest. I I could see that as well. So for those of you who don't know, uh 13F filing is a quarterly requirement uh here in the US and they must list all of the uh equities and option contracts they have as of the closing of the quarter. So these are his positions as of March 31st, which is the end of the first quarter.
He doesn't have to report it until 45 days after the closing of the quarter, which is why we're just getting this information now. Um so it's significantly delayed. There's, you know, that month and a half there of backlog. Um so we're going to look at the charts and see how this timing worked up as far as what happened after the 31st when we know he held these uh and to see where maybe he got out.
So the timing of the quarter starts from this date. This is just the cues. All right. from this date to right here. Okay, March 31st. Um, now right before this, we're just going to go to Baba. He I'm knowing him. Usually he times this pretty well. I'm going to suspect that he ended and did puts around here because Baba, this is quite the runup for Baba.
This is pretty wild. So, all we know is that as of this date, he was still holding the put. I would be shocked if he did not take profit on this because not only because when you have options, it's not just the fact that the price went down, it's the fact that the price went down in incredibly high volume.
You have the value of the option skyrockets. I would be shocked if he did not take like 80% a lot of profit. I mean you're going logically towards a 200 moving average on this. It hit there's in my opinion low likelihood that he did not take substantial amount of profit. Same for right here. So once again this is where we know he had it somewhere in between here.
No way did he not take something here. And I get it. It came back up quickly, but this is so low, guys. I mean, this is if you just take the average price from here to here, let's just say is at, you know, 120. This is 87 and it's an option. Dude, he took that. That's I would be very surprised if he still had these options.
So, usually when we look at these 13 F apps, there's like a little bit of difference in between each one. I would be surprised if the next 13 and a half it's not completely different. Yeah, I mean that makes good sense. I mean it looks like from a timing perspective that he was positioned variously at the right time for the market.
Put it that way. Um so definitely right in that aspect. Um you know personally like I said we're going to do a separate video on the Baba earnings but uh I don't know if it's if it's a longterm play. It still makes more sense to me. Um, but uh I don't see these positions being held very long. The unfortunate thing is when you have options, they they don't tell us the strike.
They don't tell us the expiration date, none of that stuff. All we know is that he held contracts for this many underlying shares. So, it's a little, you know, too in terms of the information uh that they have to disclose. Um, but yeah, I agree. I I strongly suspect all these positions will be gone uh on the next 13F filing.
Yeah, I think, you know, usually he's early. I think he probably timed it unbelievably well. I think he did a great job. He probably saw the change of the hands uh with Trump and the whole tariff war. So, I'm going to guess he made bank. I'm going to guess none of these positions are accurate. Um I know that there's like a lot of YouTube channels who are going, "All right, short all these China stocks because it's like a clicky thing or short Nvidia." Yeah, I think it's very unlikely he still has these options.
Yeah, absolutely. Like the short Nvidia too. I I think of Charlie Munger. This is a stock that uh I would not even consider shorting there, right? Because it's not worth it. There's so much momentum and power behind there and it legitimately is a fantastic company. So that that's my thought. Yeah. All right, guys.
Let us know what you think if he's still holding uh these positions, if not. Um and man, what a change from Berley. Just the balls on that to pull that move and then to have it work. Crazy, dude. All right, guys. Agreed.
Comments 0