저자: JoeTighe · 외국인
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주간 시작 반등 속 AI 테마 재조명. Siemens(드론 소프트웨어·AI 수혜 논리, 기술적으로 5일/21일 EMA 155~156 회복 필요, 전고점 162~163), Palantir(고점 대비 조정 후 매집 구간, 137 POC·140~144 이평 수렴, 돌파 시 상승 전환 가능), Constellation Energy(데이터센터 전력 수요로 횡보 후 추가 상승 기대, 다만 52주 저점 근처 하락 추세). 유가는 100달러 아래 안정 언급.
다듬은 글
Welcome back to Trading 360. I'm Marley Kayden. It's time for the big three. We've got three stocks and three charts for you today. Rick Duke of course will be taking us through the charts. Here to take us through the trades is Joe Tighe, portfolio manager at Equity Armor Investments. Great to have you both with us.
Joe, would love to get your thoughts on this nice green day that we're starting the trading week out with though although maybe surprising based on some of the activity we saw over the weekend. Great to have a bounce back. A big down day on Friday. Got a lot of people nervous heading into the weekend and then of course the geopolitical news over the weekend made things a little bit more dicey heading into the open.
Flashback to Friday though, remember the sell-off came on really good economic news. So to me that's never as scary. Yes, maybe it makes sense to reprice some of the inflation expectations, some of the forward interest rates. Maybe that makes sense to take set down some of the growth names that are dependent on borrowing that depend on the lower interest rates.
So that made a lot of sense and it wasn't so scary but certainly when you see geopolitical fighting and but the potential of oil going higher made people a little nervous. Having said that, we've been weathering this war for a few months now. Oil is stabilized. Yes, it's up today but it's nowhere near recent highs under $100 a barrel here.
So maybe maybe there is kind of a ceiling hopefully here for oil. We can kind of move forward and just getting back to this amazing AI story which has been the story for the past three years. Yeah, absolutely. I mean we're certainly seeing oil fall off of those triple digits. We're about 92 in terms of US crude right now.
But let's talk about this AI play cuz this first name I think is probably a part of it. You've got Siemens as your first pick for the big three today and they were certainly a part of the pullback that we saw in the market last week. So take us through the thesis on this one. Yeah, so very interesting.
You know, it's been a few months now where I've heard stories that Amazon is going to be having drones delivering their products in a few states, Michigan being one of them. I just [snorts] happened to be walking my kids to the bus this morning and I look up and I see, what is this strange plane? And my 8-year-old's like, no, that's an Amazon drone, Dad.
They're everywhere. And so, these things are everywhere. I'm not sure if I've been delivered a drone yet, but I've seen a few already just in my neighborhood uh just after that one. So, uh this said to me, hey, something is happening here uh in this uh aerospace uh uh drone world. Uh I know everybody knows the story with Amazon.
Uh this might be helpful to them uh and their bottom line, but there is a company that's designing the software that uh goes into all these drones, and that is a company called Siemens. Uh they're a French company. And for me, this is just uh really interesting opportunity here to get into a company that a lot of people are going to be looking for this type of uh product.
Uh uh you know, maybe this is a precursor to individual drones that are are flying around. I'm not so sure certain about that, but it is really exciting to see these these drones uh delivering packages right now for the short term. I also have an 8-year-old, Joe, and I mean, you can pretty much just trust them when they say, oh, that's this.
They just know somehow. They know more than we do. I'm not sure how, but they always do. Rick, as we look at Siemens here and how it's been trading, I mean, a volatile chart when we look at it, but overall, you know, up so far year-to-date and also in the last 52 weeks. I also have an 8-year-old. He just loves robots in general, so I think we're all on the same page with this this demographic.
know. Um but anyway, so looking at our chart here uh in the shorter term, we had a steeper blue trend line that began after this gap up that we saw, but it's given way to a more moderately sloping upward channel in our white lines here. We had our lows after earnings, and then we can connect these subsequent lows.
If you duplicate it, put it across the highs, it matches up uh reasonably well to give potentially uh a a for price activity going forward. Is it going to hold for sure? Of course not. We never We never know that, but it's at least a way you can project some potential support and resistance going forward.
We can also see looking back here 162 marked our old intraday highs. We did make some intraday highs beyond that near 163, but in terms of our closing prices, we stopped uh short there, kind of fizzled out, and now we've retreated back down to 153. Another low point beyond that if we were to break lower, 148.
And then this floor that we established here after another gap to the upside near about 140 stands out. When we look at our moving averages that we follow here, we can see that our we are below our two shortest-term ones, our 5-day EMA in dark blue, our 21-day EMA in teal. Those are right around 155 to 156, so that's a potential confluence point to look out for going forward.
Our quarterly 63-day EMA comes in near 147, so that could be another area to watch for potential support as well. Green trend line has been broken on the RSI downward trajectory for our momentum indicator, but we do remain above that 50 midline here. So, still more of a bullish tilt toward this uh particular technical setup.
So, when we look at our volume profile finally, there's a couple of areas that stand out to the downside. 150 to 153 gives us this node, more particularly around 151. That's where the real spike is. But then to the upside, where the area where we uh kind of got stuck previously, 156 to 159 presents uh another resistance hurdle potentially.
Yeah, right now we're at 154.78. We are trading about a percent higher in the markets today. I want to move on to your next one here because we do have a software play as well, Joe, but may more of a a pure play software company as opposed to a conglomerate like Siemens. You've got Palantir, but they've been heavily caught up in this SaaS-pocalypse or whatever you want to call it.
I think trading 20 plus percent lower year-to-date. So, take us through this one. Yeah, you could call it SAS bubble. You could also just look at it and say they ran too far, too fast and had a a very healthy correction. We're in the midst of this correction still, very range-bound from what I can tell.
Big a big pullback last big pullback on Friday. Preceded before that was a steep rally ahead of that pullback. So, I'm just kind of watching this here. It's kind of the lower end of its range. Just again, a name that I've owned for a long time. I also feel like if there is an economic cool down, companies, big companies be looking at ways of cutting costs, looking at ways of using AI to their advantage.
And I think maybe that would kind of kickstart some of the job losses that will move into AI automation. I think Palantir will be front and center in looking for those opportunities. So, not something I'm looking forward to or hoping hoping happens, but I think there is kind of a a recession proof component to a company like Palantir.
Having said that, the AI trade continues to go on. They are also obviously well positioned. But people are talking about, you know, the software names. I don't think that Palantir really should fit in with all them. I think they should fit in more with like they're an AI software. They use data, the big data that is being accumulated by all these models.
They use the data and are able to find solutions and are able to come up with activity faster than humans can. So, I think I think they're a little bit different and I think they should be treated as such. Having said that, big story for me is everyone loves the name. They got overbought. They were shorted into.
Now, I think we're at a more reasonable level. I think it's a accumulation level here for people looking for the future. Yeah, and Rick, as we look at the technicals here on Palantir, yes, it has been caught up and we did see this pullback. I mean, I can see your downward sloping line here as we look at the chart.
But as Joe also highlighted, people do really love this name, overwhelmingly a buy rating from analysts when you look at Palantir. But, what are we seeing in terms of the technical setup? Yes, [snorts] and I I kind of have some similar thoughts, too, because Palantir is as far as I can tell, Palantir is a unique company.
No one else really does this kind of high-level intelligence software. It's a it's something that is highly unusual, uh very intertwined with the government here. And I also noticed, too, that there there's chart held up in many ways better than some other ones. If you backtrack here, we had some old lows.
You can see that's around where we solidified here. We did make some intraday lows beyond that point, uh ultimately around 122.68. But, for the most part, the 133 uh 130 level held up pretty pretty well here. So, if you look at where we had our highs after earnings, for the most part then, 160 161 is uh giving us a bit of a range to keep track of here.
So, now we have this downward trajectory here. We had a very steep downswing here. So, that area that supportive zone between about 126 to 130 really stands out right now. I do also notice, though, that we have an upward sloping tr- uh trend line here beginning with those lows connecting these these subsequent lows here.
So, we're pretty close to that boundary right now, as well. So, an interesting setup here uh given that we are near a a very supportive area potentially I shouldn't say very supportive. An area of several potential factors of support lining up would be a better way to put it. So, now we can see, as well, our moving averages are coming together between about 140 to 144.
So, again, this gives us a confluence like our last chart to look for a potential breakout. If you have more of a bullish outlook, that could be the point where we start to see the price action uh have this energetic push to the upside when that resistance is breached. If you do have more of a bearish outlook, that could be an area where things start to falter and start to swing downward once more.
RSI a little bit more toward the bearish side, as well. A longer-term upward sloping trend line in green still in play, but we are below that 50 midline just a tad at this point. So, volume profile in this case shows we again are at a potentially important area that would stand out as supportive here.
We have our large volume node here, our point of control specifically, our thick red line coming in there 137 here. So, that's the area of heaviest trading here. That's right around where we find ourselves now. So, significant volume activity at notable lows on a chart often stands out to traders as being an area of importance to the downside here.
So, next volume node 151 to 160 to the upside kind of lining up with those old highs we established. All right. And right now for Palantir, we are trading at 136.94. It is up about a percent on the day, but we are not too far off of the lows that we've seen so far this year. This next one here, I'm curious if you're looking for a breakout from Constellation as well, Joe, because Constellation Energy underperforming the market here.
Are you looking for a similar setup? Yeah, another another name for me consolidating here in Constellation Energy. Trying to get that out. Yeah, just I'm I'm looking at the next level here because we know we know these hyperscalers are building. We know they're continuing to to to put their projects to work, but a lot of these projects still need to really start, and these projects need energy.
Constellation is one of the biggest utility companies in America, one of the biggest companies that offers nuclear power. I think if you're looking for a long-term deal, you'd be looking towards a Constellation if you're one of these big hyperscalers looking to lock in your prices. So, yeah, for me it it stands to reason that we've had a lot of consolidation.
It came the stock rose really high, became like it changed overnight like in 2024 from a low beta name to a high beta name. It's just kind of moving with the AI trade. So for me, I I think uh now that we've had this consolidation period, I'm looking for another leg higher here in this trade because at the end of the day, um these you can tell you can tell with all these earnings, you can tell with all this capital expenditures, all this money being raised, the money is being spent to build these data centers.
They're not going to power themselves. They're going to need energy and it's not going to be only Constellation that's going to power them, but they're going to be one one of the beneficiaries for sure. Yeah, certainly. I mean the largest producer of carbon-free energy in our country and I believe they also have the largest fleet of nuclear power here in the US.
But Rick, as we look at Constellation and and the moves that we've seen of late with this consolidation, what levels are sticking out to you as support and resistance here as Joe looks for this breakout? There's an old saying, the best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the the second best time is now.
Kind of the same thing, the best time to make all these power plants would have been a long time ago, but here's where we are now. We need a bunch of power now. So it's interesting that there's been so much attention on energy, uh you know, utility type stocks lately here. So the game of catch-up is in full swing now.
So we can see our supportive area, 24330 stands out as our our intraday lows. We also had these lows here around where we seem to like like we were potentially going to find a foothold between about 261 to 265. It was not to be at this point though, we did have a break to the downside. Longer term, downward-sloping trend line in blue was breached here, but now we find ourselves back within that boundary.
We started all the way up here at our old highs near 412.70. So for now, our shape is kind of this a very steep falling wedge type shape here where our two trend lines are both pointing down and converging toward each other. Another area of note to the upside is this small gap, 279 to 284 for further upside resistance if things do start to improve.
So, uh we can also see when we we take a look at our uh moving averages, a different picture. Now, the price is below all four of them. They're all trending downward. They're all diverging apart from each other. So, if you had more of a bullish outlook, you would start to look for price to break above not only our trend line, but above our 5-day EMA in dark blue here, potentially near 262, and for those moving averages to start trending upward, the slope to change, for them to start uh converging back toward each other here for early signs of potential trend improvement.
RSI has also moved lower. We are below our green trend line that's been broken here, but we remain above the oversold area, which is that threshold of 30. Typically, it signifies uh downside strength to come in a trending market if it were to be breached. So, in this case, our volume profile shows a much smaller node at these lows near about a 267 to 276.
We had a much larger block of activity lining up mostly with this range that we saw here between about 287 to 326 or so. Uh the point of control all the way up here at those highs near uh 323 from this range-bound area. All right. And right now, we're only about $10 off of the 52-week lows or the equivalent of about 4% here when we look at Constellation Energy.
But Joe, thanks for being with us today. Also want to thank Rick DuPree Cat, our lead market technician, for breaking all of that down for us today. For the big three, that was Joe Tegae as well. Coming up, we are going to
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