원문 보기
In this next image, around the big sign, the big announcement, let's see if we can see it here. Ray Dalio says that you should already have a cash reserve for 3 to 6 months of current expenses because of what might happen to the economy. Ray Dalio is already highlighting how we are experiencing a major structural change that has as a fundamental step a crisis in the debt environment.
And you have to prepare yourself with what Buffett is preparing for: liquidity. For how long? 3.6 months of current expenses. Look at the following image because Ray Dalio talks about how Trump's economic policy and the risk of a global systemic crisis are leading us to that great structural change.
Look at the following image. Based on how Dalio points out, a break-up isn't necessary, but the risk already exists. Look at the following image. As Dalio explains in this scenario, we are heading towards more than just a recession; we are heading towards an alteration of the international monetary order .
What does it mean? This isn't about a small drop, a recession on the margins. This is about a change of model that leads us towards different rules of the game, that we are not facing a cyclical technical confrontation, but a paradigm shift that affects how we trade, how we do business, the rules of international trade, the status of reserve currencies, especially in the chapter of the dollar, but it is talking above all about Bitcoin as an element and Stablecoins as a fundamental element of change and it is talking about the role of the United States as an economic leader called into question.
From here on, take a look at the following photograph because it speaks of fiscal sustainability in jeopardy and how 120% debt to gross domestic product leads to a loss of global confidence at a critical level. He says the 120 level is critical for confidence in the U.S. bond market. And although there may not be an immediate reflection, there is already a reflection on the underlying, superficial level, regarding what is happening in the bond market in the United States.
4.5 percent and 5 percent of the 30-year-old American. Those environments. Look at the following image around what Dalio says: these cycles that repeat throughout history and show similar patterns point to us suggesting that we are changing the world order in a more inefficient way. In other words, instead of going down a hill, we are jumping into the void of something where we don't know how the fall will be .
Therefore, he is proposing something different. This is not a recession, it is a structural change in which you do not know what the future scenario will be because not even he knows. Look at the following image to see how it talks about the indicators of caution. He says that GDP growth is moderately stable, that the unemployment rate is progressively increasing, he talks about year-on-year inflation with high energy pressure and he talks about a level of consumer confidence that is the same as in 2008, it is at a critical level, a level of consumer confidence that I repeat is at the level, says Dalio, Ray Dalio, at the level of the last financial real estate crisis.
Look at the following image as there is an obvious slowdown in the labor market. Anyone who doesn't want to see it is ignoring the numbers, but from the jobs created in 2024 to the jobs created in 2025 to the projected jobs in 2026, there is an obvious slowdown in the economy. This is the reality of the labor market.
From the jobs in 2024 to the projection in 2026, there is a drastic drop in the labor market that the market is not calibrating because of artificial intelligence. Look at the following image regarding how, in the face of uncertainty, the strategy proposed by Donald Trump, uh, Ray Dalio, sorry, has four fundamental points: an emergency fund, which is what I was telling you about, a liquidity reserve to cover between three and six months of current expenses; a reduction of debt, we're talking about you, not the government, about you; a liquidation of products with variable or high interest rates, when you look at the account and say, this month I'm spending I don't know how much because I'm paying a very high interest rate, liquidate it.
This is a full-blown warning of how you need to prepare for the coming crisis. Seek alternative sources, reduce the exposure of the investment portfolio, that is, collect all the profit you can and manage resilience, do not bet on a single nation or currency as an absolute safe haven, do not put everything in one cart.
In other words, four key points in the face of what's coming. Have enough cash on hand for three to six months of current expenses, reduce the use of products with variable or high interest rates that could cause you problems with the change, with the movement of having lost income. Look for alternative sources of income; if you have a job, find ways to generate other income and review your investment portfolio exposure.
And then don't bet on a single nation, don't bet on a single currency as your ultimate safe haven. Hey, look, because we have, well, a fundamental element. Let's go to the oil and I'll tell you the latest news. Let's look at the oil. Well, we have some important breaking news. Important latest news, oil, well, unchanged at 0.59 in real time, 0.79, well, it's already picking up a bit of the downward movement.
I'll tell you why, I'll point out the oil: 0.83, Brent, 0.84, 113.50. There's the real-time movement of oil, you can see it there on the screen.
Comments 0