저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
워런 버핏이 월가가 도박장처럼 변해 현금 보유를 늘리고 있다는 취지로 발언했다는 소개로 시작. 버핏의 현금 3,800억 달러 보유와 애플·뱅크오브아메리카 매도, 달러 신뢰 약화·부채 우려, 일일 만기 옵션·알고리즘 매매에 대한 경계를 다룸. 출연자는 과거 사례(1970년대 오일쇼크, 1987 블랙먼데이, 2000 닷컴, 2008 금융위기)를 들어 위기 가능성을 시사하나, 구체적 시점이나 자산별 방향 예측은 명시하지 않음. 폴리마켓 외계인 베팅 사례로 투기 과열을 비판.
다듬은 글
Two things I wanted to tell you about Buffett and Ray Dalio, uh, Buffett said—and we have to come back to this— that Wall Street has become a gambling market. You know, Polymarket, Calcy, etc., etc. Uh, the transformation of Wall Street into a gambling den is the fundamental element that Warren Buffett is raising, and Warren Buffett doesn't like chance around money.
It's not liked. And he suggested on CNBC over the weekend, and the echo of many of those words is being picked up, that it's a snapshot of Wall Street's transformation into a gambling den where even the taxi driver goes to the gambling den. It makes it clear that he doesn't want to be in that situation.
Look at the following image. How does Warren Buffett point out that we've never seen so many people with a "betting" mentality, "I'm going to bet that the markets are going to go up"? Something that alarms him is similar to the story of the taxi driver; once in the taxi, the driver asked me where I had invested and how much money I had earned.
Look, the other day we were in New York and it's striking because one of the conversations that caught my attention was with one of the taxi drivers we were going to Wall Street with, where we were staying. The idea was, like with Robin Hood, I tried it once and won. In other words, the message from a large part of the general public is that money is made very easily in the market .
What Warren Buffett is proposing, and what we previously described with that taxi driver metaphor, Warren Buffett now changes and says, when the fundamental core of the market is lost [sighs] and it ceases to be a market to invest in and becomes a market to gamble in, I get out. Look at the following image.
How, uh, the classic model based on business fundamentals, based on intrinsic value, based on a long-term vision, 20, 30 years, where Berkshire Hathaway has operated uh on this mantra for decades, is now in contrast with the Jim Cramers of the day. Casino mentality, massive use of ODT options, daily expiry options, algorithmic trading, seeking quick profits without truly considering the value of the company.
This is what Buffett is suggesting to us ; you can take it or not, but the reality is that he is describing what is really happening, what is impacting us. Look at the following photograph. How he's betting on $380 billion in cash liquidity, liquidating positions in Apple, in Bank of America, to build the largest cash reserve in the company's history, preparing for when the worst comes and you're laughing now, what you're missing, Buffett, I'm making 20 or 15 and you're losing.
When that time comes, he'll say, don't worry, I'm investing now for the next 20 years. I'm keeping the cash; I've lost money during this time in which a major crisis is brewing, and I'm entering with the major crisis. $380 billion . Look at the next slide where it talks about threats to the system. He says that's why cash is the most valuable asset today, in an element where it's better to have it than to lose it.
It seems basic in investing, but some people say, no, man, it's better to invest it, they say, no, investing is one thing, gambling is another. Look at the following image. How the pillars of risk are around, Buffett says in that CNBC interview, in the collapse of the dollar, Buffett's warning about the loss of confidence in the currency in the face of runaway debt, he says, listen, something that serves to reduce debt at the cost of inflation is not worth the same as it was, it is not a fundamental pillar, there is a collapse of the dollar.
And then he talks about unintelligible complexity. When you invest and say, I don't know why I've earned more, but I have 10% in a few hours on what I had invested. He acknowledges that much of today's stock market operations are beyond traditional understanding. It grows. And why does it grow? Because money is practically free, because money is exchanged in a gambling-like way.
He talks about financial gambling addiction . It speaks of the ease of access to the market, attracting millions of bettors, not investors. The years that we will probably understand in the future that we have lived dangerously. He talks about a perfect storm, he expects the worst is yet to come due to valuations that are going to become unsustainable, that when we see the value of the dollar, when we see the value of the debt, when we see what the debt is really worth in that dollar environment, of dollar collapse, he sees a risk problem where the whole system is maintained because there are gamblers investing in Wall Street, instead of betting, instead of investing based on fundamentals, right?
And how the perfect storm will come when we realize that the valuations are unsustainable. Take a look at the following image showing how cash growth at Berkshire Hathaway is skyrocketing. Shot in this environment. Look at the following image showing how Buffett survived the 1970s oil crisis , Black Monday in '87, the dot-com bubble of 2000, and the 2008 real estate and financial crash.
In all of them, Buffett survived precisely because he knew when to withdraw. Beware of Buffett now retreating to cash because historical memory brings back dangerous patterns that the market is now trying to ignore, with one added detail: he's no longer a taxi driver going to the market. They are gambling addicts who go to the market thinking they are going in the morning and collect the profits in the afternoon or not even in the afternoon.
Look at the following image showing how it incorporates three key warning signs. Daily operations that amplify volatility to the point of destroying it, the dollar with the risk of massive devaluation due to access to state liquidity and the lack of buying opportunities at reasonable prices. He says that those three elements are the three major warning signs in this environment.
Look at the following image to see how the worst is expected in this scenario . He says he's not predicting a fall, he's positioning himself for when it happens. He says the strategy is simple: wait for panic to clear the casino. Buffett's strategy right now, with $ 80 billion in his pocket, is to wait for panic to clear the casino.
He says that when liquidity disappears, nobody will answer the phone; that's when the Oracle of Omaha, that's when Buffett will deploy his $ 380 billion arsenal. Buffett is hinting that a crisis is coming, if not the crisis of all crises, right? Pay attention to the photograph of what Buffett is putting on the table.
Look at the following image because it shows us what Warren Buffett is saying. First, if we are prepared. But look at the following image from Polymarket regarding the amount of profound stupidity we are spending money on. $31 million bet on Polymarket on whether the United States will confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life in 2027.
When? May 31, 2%. June 30, 5%. September 30, 12%. December 31, volume $26 million, up 10% , to see if the United States will confirm or deny the existence of extraterrestrials in 2027. This is what Buffett is referring to. This same investor is the one who then goes to Wall Street to see how algorithms are used to try to make a fortune in a day instead of working.
Instead of what they told us last week, right? The worst advice you can be given, Seymour said, the worst advice you can be given is to try hard, because AI will do it for you. But look at the amount of nonsense we 're seeing that involves a huge amount, an enormous amount of millions of dollars. $31 million in volume to see if the existence of extraterrestrials in the United States will really be confirmed .
It's not a joke, it's the world we live in. We've gone from meme stocks, where people are now buying eBay or want to buy eBay, not eBay anymore, but eBay, the company, uh, but the amount of movement around how to bet. It
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