저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
달리오의 AI 버블 경고(붕괴 직전 단계)를 인용하며 금리 상승과 AI 자금조달 비용 증가를 지적. 미국·일본·프랑스·스페인 국채금리 급등, 프랑스 재정위기와 유동성 위기 우려를 제기. 비트코인 하락, 나스닥·S&P500 사상 최고치 언급. 스페인 연금·정부 재원 문제 및 총파업 언급. 전반적으로 시장 하락·유동성 경색 경고 톤.
다듬은 글
Pay attention at this time. On a day when we have once again heard Ray Dalio focus on AI and the bubble. And be warned, because he said in Forbes, in Singapore, that AI is a classic bubble. Let's decipher Ray Dalio's message because it's striking in this environment. He says that AI isn't a special bubble, that it has strange things, but that it's part of what he talks about in his book, right?
Around those classic bubbles. And watch out, because it says, "It's close to exploding." We are, he says, he said in Singapore, "In the phase of the cycle prior to the puncture point." But as we approach him. In other words, there would be some space left. How much and how can it be managed? Well, as I said, the market is very focused on the Federal Reserve minutes, because, well, because there is a very large debt on the table that is starting to drive interest rates even higher .
Elena, there on screen, how tech companies are putting hundreds of billions into AI. SpaceX said this morning, "40 billion more." And the rising interest rates are key. Bonds at a decade high and today we're going to read between the lines and literally everything we can, right? This is about what the Federal Reserve thought at the last meeting where it raised interest rates.
Bonds at their peak, AI financing becoming increasingly expensive as the second key point. And Dalio says, "Of the three, we've already got two, they're going to cash." What is this? What is this? Well, what Ray Dalio is suggesting is that there are two fundamental elements. One important one, regarding how wealth taxes are going to mark a fundamental path, uh uh I'm a millionaire, I'm a millionaire, I'm a millionaire, wealth taxes and start paying taxes like a champion.
And sales to convert profits into real money. In other words, we need to start shedding ballast. That's what Ray Dalio is putting on the table. Let's start shedding some baggage in this environment. And letting go of ballast means starting to let go of a part of yourself, right? Because of what has been invested, and therefore the market is going to start pricing that whole picture downwards.
That's the key he sees for the beginning of the bursting, he says, of the bubble. To spend it you have to sell, you have to sell goods, they read there on the screen, to get money and that's where the bubble usually bursts . Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is at all-time highs, and the Nasdaq has all-time highs, all-time highs, all-time highs, and more all-time highs in this whole picture.
Notice that it's not just Ray Dalio; Bank of America also says it's promoting options for the technology sector to hedge against bubble risk, for the technology sector, for the investor in the technology sector to protect themselves—a kind of credit default swap, right? around the technology so that in this scenario, so that in this space, well, there can be an environment of mmm coverage, right?
What a mess that is there, right? Uh [clears throat] The S&P 500 is down 0.49, the Nasdaq 100 is down 0.81 on TradingView screens, the Dow Jones is down 0.73, uh we see the picture around, look at the Nikkei's drop tonight of 1.72, in futures it's already at 1.72, the Kospi in South Korea is 1.98 and oil is up, close to 1%, Brent is at 101.97, West Texas is up 0.19, uh, 0.23%, gold is down, which is already playing at 4100, 4120.
Down 104, silver is down 186 to 70.19. Debt spreads are rising: the 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year US Treasury bonds. The 10-year US Treasury bond is up 104 to 534. The 30-year US Treasury bond is up 11 to 572. My God. 572, it has already surpassed 57. We have uh 30, 20, 2, for example, Japanese also up, the 2-year Japanese 1.30 which is discounting its interest rate hike by the Japanese Central Bank.
France is on fire, wow! 272, 491 yield for the 10-year French bond. The German 10 years in 351. 351, 491. The Virgin. And then 159,416 of yield for the 10-year Spanish bond. France is right now, my goodness, on the brink of disaster. He's going to, well, he's going to approve a budget that the investor says, "Wow!
This guy's going to back out ." He's going to back out , he's going to regret it before he does it. He will regret it so much that he will put France in a more complicated situation. It goes up 267. That's absolutely outrageous. The French 10-year bond is at 4.91. And a 227 Bitcoin falls, a lot, huh.
227 is leaving you with $1954 in a few hours of Bitcoin's value. 83592. 83592. Nvidia drops half a point or so . Google drops half a point. 0.89 Tesla, 0.32 Meta, Apple rises half a point, 0.63 Amazon falls. Microsoft falls by 0.87 . So we have, well, an absolutely spectacular tension surrounding the debt and especially surrounding France and how we are heading towards a liquidity crisis.
I was saying, and I'll say it again, that I would have this in my home library right now. John Kenneth Galbraith, the 1929 crash that I'm rereading here, see the point there, uh, around the photograph of what a liquidity crisis is . What is a liquidity crisis? How does it behave? How does it fall? And above all, how and in what timeframe will it recover?
Are we in a debt crisis or are we entering, well, fully into a liquidity crisis? If this is a liquidity crisis, 2008, huh. Liquidity environments are going to close, they're going to start closing, drying up, right? The environments where you can apply for a loan. I am not going to ask you to give me any loan.
On top of that, they're changing the housing law here in Spain, for example, to make everything more difficult. The ICO is not going to give 50,000 euros. You'll see. So, we're heading towards a liquidity crisis, and in a liquidity crisis, not a debt crisis—the debt issue is just an added factor—we're going to see an increasingly complicated picture, especially when we see companies asking, asking, and asking.
Look at this image from the Financial Times, which today reports that SpaceX is seeking to raise $40 billion to buy Nvidia chips in a funding round that will be led by Apollo. Blockbuster's debt deal is the latest sign of massive spending on chips, says the FT, and other infrastructure that underpins AI.
Where is the point at the end of next year? Hey, are you getting back everything you've invested? Well, we're working on it. What do you mean we're working on it? I should already have it. The mess we're heading into in terms of liquidity is spectacular, and collaterally in terms of debt, especially for the French.
What's wrong with the French? We'll get into it now, but hey, I'll give you a spoiler, I'll summarize it a bit beforehand. The photograph of France is going to reduce 50 billion, it has the street on fire. Okay. How much should France be cutting back in this environment? How much does France have to take from the budget?
We were telling you that yesterday on the set, weren't we? Between 120 and 140 billion euros. He has removed, or wants to remove, the 12.50,000 and things are getting messy. If he puts 140 billion on the table— education, healthcare, pensions— the yellow vests will put on burning vests. Notice that a demonstration has already been called and they are already saying, "The yellow vests are back." But the problem isn't France, although it is a problem , France is a problem , eh.
The problem is the model we have created in Europe. And what model have we created in Europe? The model of spoiled children. The "what do I want?" model I'll give it to you. What do you want, son? I'll give it to you. What do you want? I'll give it to you. But what do you want? I'll give it to you .
But what do you want? I'll give it to you too . And now you tell them, hey, the protesters are probably right, huh. The class is disgusting. Okay. But we can't afford anything else. Well, you have to allow yourself that. And of course, here we are right now at the mercy of any demagogue who appears in all this and says, "Don't worry, there won't be any cuts, we'll spend more if necessary, the important thing is the social safety net," and the market will come and tell him, "Bring it, bring it, bring it, bring it, boom , boom, boom, boom, boom, boom, boom." As happened to Liz Truss in the United Kingdom.
Metaphorically speaking, huh? Uh, why? They're going to stop funding it because when you go to ask, they'll say, "No, I'm going to do whatever I damn well please ." Okay, come on, come and finance. Look, look in France, 2.82, it's at 4.92, it's about to reach 5% in 10 years. The American 10-year-old is at 5.34.
The French 10-year-old is at level 5. The German 10-year-old is at level 3.5. 3 and a half. A ruin. Either you financed that one or you lost others. A real disaster for the country. No, it's about education, but what kind of education, if the problem, look, is that the sooner we Europeans get used to the idea, right?
We are facing a tremendously difficult time where we have to pull together, where we will see about pensions, as you heard José Carlos Díez say in an interview during the debate two days ago , "But there is no money in the Bank of Spain in December to pay pensions." No one from the government has come out to deny it, clearly, right?
Is there money or not ? No, the money is there. Is there money for pensions in December or not? Is there money for pensions in December or not? This is a critical issue that the government needs to address right now. If others win and others enter, they could get the shock of their lives. When they get there and say, "But there's not even enough to pay pensions or civil servants here," then, well, the Workers' Commissions and the UGT have already called this strike they've invented, two days before the campaign starts, on November 11th .
Two days before the campaign starts, a general strike. A political general strike against the opposition, it's mind-blowing. Listen, but you're partly to blame for what's going on, aren't you? No, no, no, no, no. Yes, but you're the one to blame. Man, I'm to blame, I'm responsible for what I do, but you're the one governing.
Well, that's the world we're in right now here in Spain, it's all a joke. It's so ridiculous that if you go to your own little corner, you laugh about it all . You laugh about it, goodbye to the guy, huh. A demonstration against the opposition, well, or the other one. Huh, But that's a scandal. So, what's the problem in France?
The problem in France is that, just like in Europe, across Europe, except for Germany and a few exceptions, we're grossly spoiling our citizens . And there's no more money to keep spoiling them, and let's see who tells them that now. "Son, I want it," no, what do you mean no? But you've been giving me everything my whole life, well, not anymore.
Not anymore . You see the image of the Puerta del Sol here in Spain, in composite, there on the screen, uh, well, fine, let them protest, but how do we pay for housing? How do we pay? The two royal decrees are already there, uh. If the vulnerable tenant doesn't pay, the State pays. Ah, okay. How much money does the State have to put up for this? If it has to cut back, how is it going to put up more?
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