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hello and welcome to this special show i am anurch with me of course is prashanth and we have a special guest joining us chairman and co-founder of mutila financial services is here right in our studio rama good morning we're always on pleasure and things are back to normal uh you know you are in our studio yes uh we would have hoped that you know once this pandemic was over things were really normal but now this war has come on us uh so something is boiling the market whether it was pandemic or whether it's the war yeah but uh first of all great to have you uh your thoughts on you know what we've gone through yeah so uh we were hoping that uh we'll have a wonderful 22-23 i mean 21 20 has gone again in fighting kobe and we'll have a wonderful peace time 22-23 and risk one thing i have seen that whatever you think is the risk that is not the risk risk is something which is not visible so you have to be always prepared for something we are saying that okay what is over or what what would be over or covet is over but something else is kind of brewing somewhere so i think the risk has played fully and risk assets have suffered in last 30 days or so so i think uh one set of risk a play out is uh maybe at the peak or uh coming to an end and then uh we'll start and i think we have to prepare for the peace time now prepare for the peace and portfolios yes uh two questions one is what everybody wants to know yeah is the worst uh somewhat invisible is visible i mean what we've seen in terms of the price damage we've seen and second we were in absolutely no doubt that this was a boring bull market till last year has that uptrend been broken or you think this is just a pullback in that uptrend because when you're in the midst of that pullback it seems like i mean the world is completely uh sort of gone for a sixer what's your sense so clearly i mean the problem is not over and in what shape it will be over what will be the lingering sanctions and the world order which is kind of appreciated right now uh and it has its own cost uh in the center sanctions if they continue in whatever form and things will settle down i mean once you have created such a big kind of disturbance it will take its own time to settle down so the commodity prices oil prices gas prices and a lot of economic stuff a lot of businesses have gone top set away and consumers may not be willing to pay the pass on cost so i think we have to assess over the quarters which are the businesses which have done well or which have done well and which are actually suffered and will suffer in in the day many many quarters to come so uh that assessment will happen but uh but my sense is that uh we have seen the worst of uh it is the stock market i mean what is the what is happening in ukraine usa second what is happening in uh stock market front that is more than a billion dollar daily selling by f5 because that is a real war for us yes you know we have to face that every day so uh i think that we have faced brilliantly so they have had a wonderful exit from india i would say but i think they'll have very painful entry if at all they want to enter okay yeah that's that's an important point right a billion dollar a day and it's being absorbed right food is continuous three four days continuously i mean if it was a market of say 2007 or eight uh we would have seen certain structural changes i don't know who all are buying of course retail is there yes right but retail is there and di is also there but they're also retail absolutely so that is my question then when we of course don't know we'll always be wiser with hindsight whether it was just a fall or you know a bigger fall or a bear market we don't know yeah but is this a bit of a risk for the market because a lot of this money uh has not seen a bear market i mean a lot of first-time investors are there yeah and they have put a lot of money so do you see that emerging as a bit of a risk yeah that's a that's a risk because the behavior can be quite uh quite crazy i mean you can push them to a particular extent after that when they break down everybody will break down together but this time the fixed income has also collapsed so you're not you don't have a place to hide i mean when you leave the equities you end up in five percent kind of a post tax return which is also not acceptable to people in fact one of the reasons they have come in apart from in uh retail is that collapse of fixed income so i think that fixed income is not going back to say 789 so there is no logical transfer from equity asset class to permanently into the fixed income side so i would say they might stay back uh for the time to come but they will whenever whenever the market starts recovering because they know only price they don't know value this crowd doesn't know value this crowd knows only price momentum yes so as the prices uh stabilize and they start moving up they will come with double speed because now boss we've got it and we have not right just a follow-up so you reckon this the selling is more from the momentum etf kind of uh points and not the long only flights that's what i get to hear that they're they're emotionless while selling and they will be emotionless while coming also no you said that there and the exit has been wonderful but they're exit but entry will be painful very painful which means you are anticipating a ferocious comeback as well uh i would think so but it all depends on how things shape up in the sense that said uh uh how uh how suddenly you know war stops i mean there is a uh this thing you know what you call withdrawal of the troops or something like that dramatic dramatic withdraw the sanctions and also we don't know how things will shape up but markets are markets in the sense that once the markets they realize that we have uh got over the peak of the problem then they will start rallying you know just one thing there is uh more and more uh sort of people who study this thing are starting to believe that even if uh the conflict on the ground stops it's not as if commodity prices will all revert back to pre-conflict levels maybe they'll stay higher for much longer is that is that big done to in your assessment of prashanth it is very tough to figure out the damage done i'm telling you it is as the time comes by we'll realize that uh the weaker industries have become weaker and weaker companies in those weaker industries have become worst okay and the stronger industries will emerge stronger out of this crisis again and among those is stronger industries stronger companies will emerge even strongest so we have to see we can do nothing about the external environment we are this is a ground ground given to us to manage money or invest and make money so uh what happens to the corporate earnings i think ultimately we have to figure out where the corporate earnings are going we were thinking that will be upwards of 875 885 890 post by that we had come to our eight ninety nine hundred we're fiddling with so i said uh 18 000 looks to be fairly priced kind of uh index and now you are at 15 16 000 so i think you have a good uh good play if things settle down and still earnings for 22 23 is broadly intense yeah i mean i i use the motilal estimate of course for for arriving at that index number as well but ram just getting back to your last question you said fixed income is not coming back any time but you know even before this russia ukraine was started market had started to fall and uh you know one big risk factor was uh even before this inflation was already rising yeah and uh you know fed was clearly going to rise rates and they're still jurisdil out on how much uh they'll raise but before the war it was clear that they might even raise 50 basis points so in that sense uh how should people position their portfolio uh given that you know we the the low ultra low interest rates environment might be behind us yeah in fact now it has become worse because the inflationary pressure which was there that is further exhibited by uh higher commodity prices across the board and uh speculators their best in doing this in the sense that what the oil price should be 110 it will go to 150 even if they can squeeze you as much yes so that's what is happening right now so uh i mean clearly inflation inflation situation become worse but how much of demand destruction is going to happen and what kind of a post post-war economy world economy we are going to see and what kind of see world is very interdependent whether you like it or not i mean the world is the nato allies are dependent on china and russia and china russia is also dependent on other side so they have to accept this fact and then at some point of time they realize that enough is enough let's get back to the taking care of the economy so i think right now the it is punishing the economy the top priority rather than taking care of the economy so i think as the settlement happens uh the whole whole thing will change and so i think investing has to be bottoms up right now to say that this sector is going to be i mean yes at one level you can say but uh still i think uh a lot depends on the strength of the companies uh how they are going to negotiate uh this entire term you said some companies will uh sectors will get stronger companies within will get even stronger and vice versa yeah we had a significant following topsy turvy all over the place which are to your mind looking very strong out of this see fundamentally i think services will do better than manufacturing because all these raw materials go into manufacturing so who's it where and how much who knows you know so that you have to do company wise assessment in manufacturing you know if you're using too much of nickel i don't know what is going to happen to that company's raw material cost and can you really pass on so you know overnight you are negative territory cement company they're in current cost structure they're negative territory i mean so how they come back how are they able to pass on so those things we have to see but at the same time services companies like say it banking insurance all these companies are broadly not impacted even broking i mean we see that it is not impacted so yes mark to market the losses to the to the customers their own sentiment that is going to hurt for sure in the short run but broadly the business model is not impacted services over manufacturing sorry are you surprised by this near collapse of the big banking names around the of course you know the easy thing to say is it's fire selling but you know names like hdfc hdfc bank hitting 52-week lows co-tech mahindra bank for a good period of you know 12 to 18 months doing nothing underperforming the market i would think that uh they're in a very sweet spot i'm telling you as a business wise they're the 4-5 banks who are going to underwrite the entire india growth story and the asset quality fully provided credit cycle credit cycle is on upward swing and credit cost cycle is on the downward swing what more you want and then there is a 15 17 natural growth it's not reflecting in the stock price yeah it is not reflecting because of this fi selling i mean see they own 70 75 of all these banks so when they have to index wise they have to hit they have to i mean i think 20 close to 27 28 is banking in india and all private sector banks they have yes yes so when they sell index that much sale comes on these companies and once the retail also knows that here the flow is coming he would also stay back yes absolutely that creates big value so this is the time where uh now the guys who are thinking that it is expensive it was expensive the market at some point of time now selective value picking must happen from the growth stocks okay got that uh ram stay with us you know what we'll do is we'll take a quick break here we come back and we'll bring in uh two gentlemen from diverse sectors uninsingly of sri diges cement for a discussion
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