저자: 에디Eddie · 한국인
요약 보기
7월 말 FOMC·BOJ 금리결정 주간을 앞두고 엔캐리 우려로 급락했던 기술주가 일본 금리인상 가능성 낮음과 저가매수로 반등할 것으로 봄. 나스닥은 120일선 지지 확인, 다우·중소형주는 신고가 흐름. 다만 신용카드 연체율·자동차대출 연체율 상승과 실업률 4%대 등 경기둔화 신호로 장기적으로는 하방 리스크를 경계.
다듬은 글
This week is a period when central banks globally make interest rate decisions. Things get busy starting Wednesday, beginning with the Fed's FOMC meeting, followed by the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. Stock prices fell sharply last week due to the carry trade effect caused by concerns that interest rates might be raised.
However, the likelihood of Japan raising rates this time is low. We estimate the probability of a rate hike in July to be less than 30%, 28% in September, and 35% in October, indicating a low outlook for a hike. As the value of the dollar fell, investors took advantage of Japan's low interest rates to buy heavily in the US stock market, particularly in ARIs.
However, last week, concerns regarding Google's shift to AI revenue during its earnings announcement caused AI stocks to drop significantly, and tech stocks fell sharply as anger surged over the possibility of a Japanese rate hike. Looking at the dollar-yen exchange rate, it has currently fallen to the 100-moving average, but it is expected to rebound.
If this happens, the influence on the carry trade will disappear, and since the likelihood of a Japanese rate hike remains low, Japanese stocks are expected to rise, as will the US stock market. The situation has become one where stability can be restored. That is why Japan is jumping 2% today, with reports indicating a significant rise in technology stocks.
It is said that companies like DISCO, Tokyo Electron, and SoftBank led the market rally. If you look at the current Nasdaq index, it fell to the 120 moving average in April. It rebounded from there, but fell near 120 again this time. It went near the 452 moving average before forming a tail and rising.
Therefore, we can interpret this as bargain buying coming in to some extent. In particular, the semiconductor sector had fallen; it dropped below the 12-moving average at its low in April, and just like in April, it fell below the 120 moving average again and rose with a tail. Similarly, it is confirmed that bargain buying has entered.
Furthermore, the Dow Jones sector is still hitting new highs in the industrial sector, and small and mid-cap stocks are also performing well. So, last week, a virtuous cycle occurred where defensive stocks shifted from technology to industrial sectors. Also, as the likelihood of Japan raising interest rates is still viewed as low, the underlying risk of a rate hike is easing.
Therefore, the stock market is oversold. With Japanese stock prices stabilizing amidst a trend of buying at dip prices and long tails, the US stock market is also finding stability. This week is highly likely to be a highly volatile trading day. Starting Monday, there is the Onsemi Semiconductor earnings announcement; on Tuesday, AMD, Microsoft, and Arista Networks; on Wednesday, tech stocks such as Meta, ARM, Qualcomm, and Lamley; and on Thursday, Apple, Amazon, Intel, and Coinbase.
Tech stock earnings announcements are scheduled every single day from Monday to Thursday. In the industrial sector, starting Monday, there are earnings announcements from McDonald's, Democratic Party theme stocks (including cannabis-related stocks), and solar power. On Tuesday, Starbucks' stock price has fallen significantly recently, so it would be good to see if there is a rebound.
In the demand sector, there are earnings announcements from Boeing, Norwich Cruise, Tech, Humana, pharmaceutical companies, and insurance companies. On Thursday, there is Moderna, Crux, and Mobila, and on Friday, oil stocks ExxonMobil and Chevron. So, there is a huge concentration of earnings announcements next week.
On top of that, there is the Japanese interest rate decision and the FOMC Federal Reserve rate decision on Wednesday. Additionally, starting Tuesday, there are hiring announcements, and on Friday, the unemployment rate. There are a great many economic indicators. This is a week where data is being released.
As a result, tech stocks have fallen significantly amidst a situation full of uncertainty, and overall, they are currently in an oversold state. Therefore, if major tech stocks like Apple and Amazon deliver strong earnings reports starting this week, it could be an opportunity to reverse the AI theme stocks that Google ruined last week.
Furthermore, as risks related to Japan gradually diminish, it seems highly likely that the US stock market will open on Monday maintaining its bullish trend. To briefly brief you on the current economic situation, inflation in Europe is gradually decreasing; core inflation has fallen below 3%. Consequently, the Fed and other global central banks have achieved their target of 2% inflation, and Europe and the UK are continuing to seek interest rate cuts.
Inflation in the US has also decreased significantly, but signs of an economic slowdown are also emerging. The credit card delinquency rate for payments overdue by more than 90 days is increasing at an increasingly rapid pace. Although this figure remains low historically, the speed of its rise suggests that we need to be cautious about an economic slowdown.
Looking at auto loans, while they remain below 3%, It has been rising sharply since the end of 2023, and the same applies to credit card delinquency rates. It appears to have hit a low point around 2023 and is now on a rapidly increasing trend. Looking at the job market, it is slowing down overall. Non-farm employment continues to decline, and the unemployment rate is gradually rising, having now climbed to the 4% range.
Job openings continue to decrease, dropping sharply since March 2022. U.S. inflation continues to decline, now approaching the 2% range. This is why the Fed argues that the risk of an economic slowdown is greater than the risk of inflation. Now that inflation has been brought under control, they will likely try to lower interest rates.
However, if you look at this indicator—the difference between the 10-year and 2-year long-term and short-term yields— since 1980, when long-term and short-term rates inverted and began to rise, a "gray recession" occurred. If we look at the 2000s, a recession followed the inversion and rise; similarly, in 2006 and 2008, recessions occurred as the inversion and rise were caused by COVID-19.
With the market reversing and gradually starting to rebound, the possibility of an economic recession is high, especially since the reversal is significant this time and the economy is beginning to recover. Therefore, talk of a recession may emerge soon as the central bank cuts interest rates. First of all, tech stocks are currently heavily suppressed.
So, if earnings start coming in well, we should keep in mind the possibility of a Nasdaq rebound, just as the Dow Jones is currently at a new high. However, looking at the long term, we should keep in mind that as inflation gradually decreases and interest rates begin to be cut, signals of an economic slowdown start to appear, leading to talk of a recession again, stock prices could be held in a downside position.
The stock market is going to be very busy this week, so I wish you all successful trading. If this video was helpful, please give it a like and subscribe. Then, I will see you in the next video with high-quality market analysis and breaking news.
Comments 0