저자: ChamathPalihapitiya—소속미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
Chamath는 미국 경제가 이미 저성장(또는 민간부문 기준 침체)에 들어섰거나 임박했다고 주장한다. 근거로 고용 둔화(7월 11.4만명, 실업률 4.1→4.3%), 샴 룰 0.53%p 상승, Airbnb 수요 경고 및 주가 15% 하락, 정부지출 의존 등을 든다. 연준은 금리를 인하할 수밖에 없을 것이며 9월 이후 소비 약세가 더 뚜렷해지고 악재가 추가로 드러날 수 있다고 본다. 엔캐리 트레이드 등 알려지지 않은 리스크도 언급한다.
다듬은 글
I think we're in a low-key recession so I think that we're going to probably go through a couple of very difficult revisions of old data the thing to remember about non-farm payrolls isn't as much what the number is but if you actually look to the number of times it then gets revised the reality is that these things get revised constantly and right now we're in this trend where we are overestimating and revising down saaks mentioned this that that was the same with GDP so we are I think in a tough situation 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022 followed by another 0.9% decline in the second quarter while consecutive quarterly contractions fit one definition of a recession the National Bureau of economic research which officially determines recessions concluded that other key factors were not met the White House also rejected claims that the US was in a recession with President Biden and treasury secretary Janet Yellen pointing to record job growth as evidence yelen emphasized that creating nearly 400,000 jobs a month does not indicate a recession describing the economic situation as unique rather than broadly weak in the months that followed yelen and the Biden Administration continued to argue that the US economy was displaying strength and resilience despite the federal reserve's aggressive rate hikes they frequently highlighted positive indicators such as low unemployment strong consumer spending and healthy household savings describing the economy as being in transition rather than in recession this narrative persisted until July when unexpected acely low job numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics raised concerns billionaire investor chath palahia along with other members of the all-in podcast argued that the US economy was either already in a recession or on the brink of one chath along with venture capitalist David saaks and coo David freeberg shared pessimistic views predicting that the US economy could face significant challenges before the end of the year stop you don't have time don't miss out this 2025 Bull Run educate yourself first ahead of the crowd we have created the ultimate step-by-step crypto cheat guite that will guide you this bull run unlock the secrets of crypto and make smarter Investments today now by clicking on the link below to get your exclusive copy just under $10 and then what you're seeing is folks that run very cyclical businesses are telling us in very plain spoken English that demand isn't there so the one that was interesting this past week Jason you mentioned Millennials but like Airbnb where you think all these young people are running around yoloing what whatever cash they have Airbnb had a massive warning on demand so when I think the excess Capital whether it's the steamy check or what have you has been exhausted you're now starting to see a bear out in these cyclical businesses I don't think the demand is there I think we're in a recession it probably becomes more obvious in Q3 and Q4 and so Powell's going to have to cut the question is will he overreact to the pressure and cut 75 to 100 versus 25 and take it slow obviously you have to account for inflation and government spending how much of government spending is driving economic growth today the US is proposing to spend $7.3 trillion next year out of $25 trillion GDP so the US federal government is roughly 30% of GDP and obviously still are tackling inflation the real question is how much of the economy is growing because of productivity gains in the sector of the economy where people are making things and doing things versus the government using its ability to tax and borrow to drive growth in the economy by inflating numbers by pushing Revenue onto businesses by pushing Capital into the markets by creating levered trades in the market using their um borrowing capacity and their taxing capacity so that's the thing I remain concerned about I I mentioned this last week I remain highly concerned about many sectors of the economy that are deeply challenged right now particularly the industrial sectors manufacturing sectors the agricultural sectors but um services and software sectors where you can raise prices and you have a nice high margin business you can continue to to grow and and look good but there are many parts of the the global economy and the US economy that are pretty challenged right now I had lunch with a very prominent investor yesterday who's very plugged in with the hedge fund community and he said that the sentiment shift you know I'd say again within hedge funds professional investors Public Market investors had been very sudden that people were now very worried about the risk of a recession and and I do think the Airbnb Revenue that Shas cited is a big factor Airbnb stock went down 15 % in in one day on soft demand and what's driving all of this is is consumer weakness or at least fear of consumer weakness you mentioned the rise in unemployment it went from 4.1 to 4.3% month over month so 4.3 is still a pretty low number by historical terms but to jump so much in one month that's a pretty big increase and then of course it's up from 3.5% a year ago so we're seeing pretty big increases in 10% year over year 5% month over month is very significant yeah yeah so these are big changes There's real evidence of of consumer weakness and I think professional investors are are getting quite worried about uh the risk of a recession and if you were to remove the impact of government spending it's pretty clear the private sector is in a recession I mean like we've been talking about government's been going hog wild with spending we have the government is running 6% of GDP deficits uh the the latest Q2 growth number was something like 2% so if you force government to live within its means and to cut its way back to balance we would definitely be in a recession we'd have a negative growth rate uh so I do think that the economy is looking pretty shaky all of a sudden uh whether we actually tip over into recession in the next few months I'm I'm not sure according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics the US economy added only 114,000 jobs in July and the unemployment rate Rose from 4.1% in June to 4 3% in July reaching its highest level since 2021 this unexpected increase in unemployment has triggered the S rule which suggests the recession is occurring if the 3-month average unemployment rate Rises by more than half a percentage Point within a year currently the S rule reading stands at 0.53% up from 0.43% in June although the S rule has historically been a reliable indicator its creator Economist Claudia Sam has indicated that this situation might be different she noted that labor market fluctuation such as labor shortages and recent increases in Immigration could affect unemployment rates in ways that the rule might not account for accurately Bank of America Co Brian Monahan also contends that the US is not in a recession and does not foresee one in the near future in a recent CBS appearance Monahan stated he has not observed signs of an impending recession and commended President Joe Biden and the Federal Reserve for achieving a soft Landing for the economy after inflation surged to multi-decade highs in 2022 however members of the Allen Podcast team agree with these optimistic views citing various concerns about the current economic conditions for additional insights check out more clips from their discussion it is crazy expensive how like prices have gone up like 50 100% unlike everything at the supermarket and this is like it's basically imposs we can deal with it but like a large percentage of people this is a big deal in terms of like now you have to budget your life and you spend less Nat and I when we're here in ptoo we go in the morning to the fish monger and will buy you know fish with the family it is unbelievably expensive and you know we always think to ourselves how is it possible that folks can actually choose to eat healthy and local if they want to it's What was a whole fish tell us if you want to have like locally caught Soul it's like 48 a kilogram wow and like it's expensive and W it's feel more than a restaurant so to feed a family of seven which is what we are you'll have to spend you know $150 $200 it's not sustainable it's not something that can that makes sense for enough people anymore because that probably used to be 40 bucks or 30 bucks but freeberg is right like we're in a real serious problem because it's it's like these systems have remained the way that they have been for a very long time and while other Industries like the tech industry have captured all these incredible efficiencies but the problem is that then these other Industries are what supports everyday people's everyday lives and in the absence of a way to actually reduce cost and improve quality you end up where we are today and I don't think that that's sustainable about recession Jason yeah look I've been predicting the same recession but I think one of the reasons why it might finally come now first of all you've got a lot of investors are suddenly worried about it there's been a big sentiment shift I think the other thing is I don't think we know all the bad news yet unknown unknowns yeah well none of us were tracking the Y carry trade like very I mean it was something we may have heard of but it's not like we were actively thinking about it until this past week and the question is how many more things are out there like that and I also think that the pattern with this Administration has been to hide the ball they hid B cility for years I think Theo of this Administration has been to hide the ball and any good news they would have reported do you think that they're reporting all the bad news I don't I think there's more bad news that's going to come out after the election because there's too many incentives for people to to hide it investors are increasingly optimistic that the global economy will achieve a soft Landing where inflation moderates without significant economic slowdown despite Rising interest rates according to Bank of America's August Global fund manager survey released on Wednesday 76% of respondents believe that a soft Landing is the most likely outcome for the global economy over the next year this is the highest percentage predicting such a scenario since May 2023 additionally a notable 93% of investors expect short-term rates to decline within the next 12 months marking the highest level of confidence in Falling rates in the past 24 years do you think the Federal Reserve will announce a rate cut at the next fomc meeting in September how might such a move impact the US economy and asset prices share your thoughts in the comments section
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