원문 보기
Super investor Bill amman's portfolio moves recently sold completely out of one stock and reduced another I'm also going to react to a recent interview where he's talking about his investing process how he actually goes about investing which I think is fascinating so let's get into it so this is Bill amman's portfolio ping Square Capital Management as of the end of the first quarter 2024 anyway and this on ticket terminal shows the international Holdings so Universal Music grp is the first one and it's 33% of the portfolio a massive position there he doesn't have many positions as you can see very focused concentrated portfolio he is a value investor he's always invested just concentrated in a few stocks Chipotle Mexican Grill 13.43% which they have decreased reduced in the quarter by 9.8 2% and Hilton worldwide Holdings is 12% restaurant Brands 10.71 alphabet 8.87 Howard Hughes Holdings 8.5 Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited 8.27 alphabet again 4% and Federal National Mortgage Association of course he does own the two different versions of the Google stock of alphabet there now we can see here on data Roma they've completely sold out of lows 100% sold out and in the quarter before Q4 2023 they had sold 82% out of lows and reduced it in the quarter before that by 5% so progressively selling out and now completely out of lows now I don't think Bill amman's given any commentary yet about why they sold out of lows if we go here and see how it's performed over the past 3 years it's had a 5.2% KGO which is not particularly good only up 16.5% over the past 5 years it's got a 19% kga though pretty good over the past year it's only up 8.9 so perhaps he saw that it run out of steam and well he's a fundamental investor so there'd be something about the company that he didn't like for the future now if we go over here to Guru Focus to look at the metrics as I like to do to see if we get any any Clues here we can see that the fundamentals the metrics here look pretty good was still got a return on Capital employed of 45 which is really high all these numbers here look pretty good gross margin looks like it could have dropped there operating Marin 13 maybe he saw a change in the company there it's certainly not super expensive p ratio says 17 Ford p ratio 18 so it hasn't run up a lot they've reduced Chipotle and that has run up we'll have a quick look at that chipotle which they've reduced a little bit we can see here year to dat it's up 40% already and and over the past year it's up 50% over the past 3 years up 100 and nearly 34% with a 32.9% KGO the price has run up they've done well out of this so perhaps trimming that one just reducing it I'm actually not so surprised that they've trimmed Chipotle in that first quarter we can see here that it's now an 86.6 billion market cap and we go down here we can see that the metrics still look pretty good return on Capital employee 25 which is way above average all these numbers still look good gross margin 26 operating margin 16.7 for this fast food company but when we go down here to have a look at the PE and some of the value numbers we can see the PE is now 67.2 n and the Ford P's 58s are really high it has run up a lot it's become it is a favorite stock a really popular stock and so I'm not surprised that they've they've trimmed it are they going to sell more in the next quarter I have seen recently you know on social media on Tik Tok and Instagram and plac like that there's sort of a campaign by people chipot has been raising their prices and people are complaining about the portion sizes not being big perhaps that's you know part of why they're saying it's not big cuz they've raised prices they're sort of pushing it to see and there's sort of a backlash going on at the moment I don't know if that'll affect the financials of the company but it's interesting to see I wonder if he's seen that as well though this was a while ago just in that first quarter will they be selling down anymore we'll have have to wait and see next quarter now if you're getting value out of this bill Amman episode so far I'd really appreciate it if you managed it really does work and if you're not subscribed already maybe consider doing that as well I've been meaning to get this for a while this is a recent interview where Bill Amman talks about his investing process so I think it's really good to go through this to see what he says and it is a similar process to what I've learned in the past you know places like Colum business school the spiritual home of value investing when I did courses there and Lex Freeman asks about it and he does explain that pretty well so I want to go through it uh what's the actual process you go through process of figuring out what the value of a company is like how do you do the research is it reading documents is it talking to people is it how do you do it it's all the about so Chipotle What attracted us initially is a stock price Dro by about 50% uh great great concept um consu you know athletes love it consumers love it healthy sustainable uh fresh food made in front of your eyes and uh you know great Steve 's the founder did an amazing job but ultimately the company's lacking some of the systems and had a food safety issue consumers got sick almost killed the rent uh but the reality of the fast food quick service industry is almost every fast food company has had a food safety issue over time and the vast majority have survived uh and we said look such a great concept but they you know their approach was not was far from ideal Terry Smiths and Warren Buffett do pretty much the same thing here when they've looked at a company that've sorted out that it's a great company and that's through the process that he's about to explain but that it's dropped 50% and that's when you know value investing comes in so it's a great company Growth Company but it for some reason temporarily it's dropped that much it's had a big drop say 30 to 50% sometimes companies drop that much and there's a permanent problem but he ascertained that it was a temporary problem went in and bought it and that spikes your returns because when it goes up it goes up to fair value and then keeps growing so that sort of turbocharges returns that's how Bill amman's been able to get such good returns but let's see what he says about his actual process but we start with usually reading the SC violing so companies file ATT 10K or an annual report they file these quarterly reports called 10 Q's they have a proxy statement which describes kind of the governance the board structure um conference call transcripts are publicly available it's kind of very helpful to go back five years and kind of learn the story you know here's how management describes their business here's what they say they're going to do then you can follow along to see what they do uh it's like a historical record of you know of how competent and uh truthful they are you it's a very useful device I mentioned this many times listening to the conference calls and he talks about reading the financials of the company their filings and going back over years to see the progression and listening to a few conference calls back over time listening to the executive team and listening to analysts asking them questions it's really valuable to hear their voices not just read the transcripts or you can do that too with small companies and micro companies sometimes they don't even have investor calls but with these big companies that he's investing in you can definitely do that over time so that's part of the research just looking at the financials and listening to conference calls and then of course looking at competitors uh and thinking about you know who could what could dis llarge this company okay so looking at the whole industry not just that company but their competitors I think a lot of people don't do this research the whole industry not just one company you've got to look at it into context and that's what he's saying the competitors the competitive landscape to see if it's got a moat and then we'll talk to if it's an industry we don't know well we know the resturant really well music industry you know we'll talk to people in the industry we'll try to understand you know the difference between publishing and recorded music we'll look at the competitors um we'll talk to we'll read books I read a book about the music industry or a couple books about the industry so he's talking about qualitative aspects here a lot of people just focus on the quantitative on the numbers but you notice how he's trying to learn a lot of background about it he might read books about the founder about the company about the industry to get a bigger picture qualitative and this can take some time even just these small points here that he's saying you know there there's a lot in here but it's important to do this to going towards understanding the company which Warren Buffett talks about it's being very important if you don't understand the company if it's not in your circle of competence and what he's talking about here is learning everything about the industry to to get it into your circle of competence said they know a lot about about fast food about the the restaurant industry because they've been researching it for a long time they know a lot about it it's a bit like a big research project uh and you these so-called expert networks now and you can get pretty much anyone on the phone uh and they'll talk to you about an aspect of the industry that you don't understand want to learn more about uh try to get a sense you know public filings of companies generally give you a lot of information but not everything you want to know and you can learn more by talking to experts about some of the industry Dynamics the personalities you want to get a sense of management uh I like watching you know podcasts if I or to do a podcast or a YouTube interview you get a sense of the people it's good too it's funny that you mentioned podcasts long interviews with the founders with the CEOs that's like the conference call but going more in depth so I'm invested in Spotify I've listened to podcasts long podcast for with Daniel ER everything he's got to say and his plans and he has revealed in podcasts you know what his plans are and that he likes Jeff Bezos and that he's following that model so that knowledge can help when you're looking at the company analyzing the company what the CEO what the founders want to do the kind of business we're looking for is sort of the kind of business everyone should be looking for right a great business it's got a long-term trajectory of growth out into the for you know even beyond the foreseeable distance right those are the kind of businesses you want to own so he talks about growth here you know long runway for growth and this is a bit of a misconception about value investors and he is a value in investor so he's looking to get the company for a cheap price or a fair price or in this case 50% you know off the price but also long runway for growth once you own it to hold it for a long time that compounding effect so it's value and growth together which a lot of people don't really understand about you know this sort of value investing that it's both it's not just one you know a lot of growth investors say it doesn't really matter what price we get it at they might play pay expensively and it ends up not being a good investment because they've got it too expensively in the first place want businesses that generate a lot of cash you want businesses you can easily understand want businesses with these sort of huge barriers to entry where it's difficult for others to compete you want companies that don't have to constantly raise Capital um and these are some of the great businesses of the world but people have figured out that those are the great businesses so the problem is those companies tend to have very high stock prices and the value is generally built into the price you have to pay for the business so we we can't earn the kind of returns we want to earn for investors by paying a really high price price matters a lot you can buy the best business in the world and if you overpay you're not going to earn particularly attractive returns that reminds me of Terry Smith he says know buy great businesses don't overpay and then do nothing so hold it for a long time very similar to Bill Amman here now I find it fascinating to hear about Bill amman's investing process how he actually goes about it he laid it out pretty well there or part of it as Warren Buffett has in the past it's very similar and I'm going to talk more about this on patreon from time to time over time how we go about investing the process you know learning how to fish not just catching fish is important so if you want to catch up on patreon and see what's going on over there two links here to recent videos about Super investor portfolios doing a series of them at the moment so I'll put links in the description for those watching or listening elsewhere as well
Comments 0