Why Stanley Druckenmiller Sold His Stocks And Bought Bonds Instead

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첫 줄 결론: 미국 경기 둔화와 무역전쟁 우려로 미국채 수요가 늘어 금리 하락(채권 가격 상승) 흐름이 이어질 것으로 본다. 드러켄밀러가 무역전쟁 트윗 이후 주식 비중을 93%에서 순노출 0 수준으로 낮추고 국채를 매수했다고 소개. 안전자산 선호의 신호로 해석. Rob Paul(Real Vision CEO)은 불황기에 채권을 사야 한다는 'buy bonds, buy dollars' 관점을 제시하며 채권 포지션 확신을 강조. Kamal Sreekumar은 성장 둔화와 무역전쟁이 국채로의 자금 유입과 금리 하락을 부른다고 주장. 2017년 말 감세 효과는 일시적인 '설탕 효과'였고 이후 둔화가 나타나고 있다고 진단. 미국 재정적자 확대에도 글로벌 수요(사모 투자자, 아시아 투자자)가 금리를 낮추고 있다고 평가. 중국의 국채 매도 위협도 금리 상승으로 이어지지 않았다고 봄. 기술적 분석가 Newton은 미국 10년물 금리 2% 부근을 핵심 지지/저항선으로 보고 2% 하회 시 금리 상승 전환 가능성을 언급하며, 2% 부근 국채 매도를 고려할 수 있다고 함. 금리가 40bp 이상 확실히 돌파하면 금리 상승 추세 전환 확신이 생긴다고 조건부 설명. 단기적으로는 20~30bp 반등 가능성 제시. S&P500은 구조적으로 2,800 상향 돌파가 중요하다고 언급. 주식과 금리가 함께 하락해 온 점을 고려하면 주식 쪽이 금리보다 먼저 반전할 가능성을 시사하나, 두 자산이 따로 움직일 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 영상은 투자 조언이 아닌 트레이딩 아이디어이며 전문가들의 의사결정 과정을 보여주는 데 가치가 있다는 면책을 함께 제시. 리스크로는 금리 반등 가능성과 무역 협상 변수가 존재.

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01. this video is sponsored by Real Vision. On the show we've talked a lot about trade wars, monetary policy, and their effect on markets, especially the bond markets. If you've been paying attention to financial news, you've been bombarded by bond market coverage. You might have seen that our boy Stanley Druckenmiller said in an interview with the Economic Club of New York that he went from 93% invested to net flat and bought a bunch of Treasuries after reading one of Trump's infamous trade war tweets. Well, he isn't alone in that opinion. Today we're going to explain why everybody is talking about Treasuries, and it's all going down on this week's episode of Real Vision's "The One Thing: What's Going On, Investors?" Here's what's happening.

02. Druckenmiller bought Treasuries for protection. In his own words, he's not trying to make money, he's just trying not to lose. Buying Treasuries for their safety seems to be a fear-driven action, but fear and greed are curious partners in crime, and some traders are looking at Treasuries through a greedier prism. Rob Paul, the CEO of Real Vision, recently wrote a report for Macro Insiders called "Buy Bonds, Buy Dollars, Buy Diamonds," where he adds conviction to his bond position. Rob Paul explained that guys like Druckenmiller and Soros make a majority of their wealth during the down part of the business cycle. That's when people don't want to own bonds, but that's when you need to own bonds.

03. Dr. Kumar Sreekumar sat down with Real Vision and expressed similar thoughts. He argued that slowing growth and trade wars would push the market into US Treasuries, which would bring yields down. He discussed the relationship between bond yields and bond prices and talked about where he thinks Treasuries will go. Trade wars are going to be good for US Treasuries, and inflation is going to be very good for them as well. The expectation of low economic growth is also a positive. Think about what a nominal bond yield is: it is the summation of your expectations on inflation and what you think is going to happen to growth. If real growth is going to be very high, you will be prepared to pay a very high interest rate, and I will demand a high interest rate to lend to you. That's true not only for private-sector individuals but for the US Treasury as well. I took the position that despite Trump's tax cuts around Christmas of 2017, you will have a few quarters of growth pickup, but that's a sugar high. Just because you have a sugar high and your energy level goes up doesn't mean you've become a person with permanently high energy for the rest of your life. Similarly, I thought it would happen for two or three quarters and then fall off. Sure enough, that seems to be happening right now, so the sugar high is wearing off. If you look at the chart of the US 10-year Treasury, Kumar has been spot on. Normally, coming off the tax break would push Treasury prices lower and yields higher, because of increasing fiscal deficits, tightening monetary policy, and worries about global growth. Despite that, as a wise man once said, in the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king. Compared to the weakness in the rest of the world, a 2% return looks pretty good. In Germany, you actually have to pay the government to hold a German bond. That's why US Treasuries are still king despite increased supply and deteriorating economic conditions.

04. Dr. Kumar discussed this further: yes, the US fiscal deficit has increased, and that is not a good thing, so they have to issue more Treasuries. But look at what the market is saying. Despite that, yields are going down, and the reason is that there is immense global demand coming from different sources. Even the threat that the Chinese may sell some Treasuries as a retaliatory measure in the trade war hasn't caused yields to go up. So the private German, the private French person, and the private Asian investor are going to say, "I'm going to seek refuge in US Treasuries." It basically looks like a bulletproof situation for US Treasuries right now. Despite a supply increase, there's still safety in US Treasuries compared to the rest of the world.

05. Mark Newton, who came on Real Vision, will ask me to give a trade idea with a less binary view on bonds. Experienced traders like Newton can sometimes spot the bottom or even catch the falling knife on its way down. Newton broke down his forecast for US Treasuries: "It's really right near 2%. That's going to be very key, not only psychologically but also because it lines up with a few other technical factors. So I would really be a seller of Treasuries into that 2.01 to 2.06 yield area, thinking that yields stop there and turn back higher. If we get under 2%, you would obviously stop that out. How high do you see yields going? Initially, we could move up at least 20 or 30 basis points from there. That's not a big move. A lot needs to be done. We need to get over 40 to have conviction that yields can start to trend higher. So for me right now, it's about trying to buy a dip in the yield, or in this case sell Treasuries as yields get that low. Over 40, you can make a more meaningful case for a larger yield rally, which would be a breakout of the entire downtrend, very similar to what I was speaking about in the S&P. Getting over 2,800 structurally would be important. Would this be in the same September timeframe? I do believe that's possible, just because they've trended very similarly. So if we can start to see yields make a stand right now, I have a little more conviction that equities are closer to a bottom than Treasury yields. But it's unlikely that we're going to see one take off and the other just sit there, given the degree to which they have all moved lower together."

06. The first of those were all trade ideas, not investment advice, so take it all with a grain of salt. The true value in those clips is seeing how professionals build their trading and investing process to reach their own conclusions. They should give you an idea of how the market at large is thinking about Treasuries and how the pros are positioning themselves to profit. So when legends like Druckenmiller join the party, and they agree with pros like Paul and Newton, it's time to pay attention, whether you agree with their thesis or not. If you want help building or finding your own process so you can identify profit opportunities like this, make sure you subscribe to Real Vision. I'll talk to you next week.